BuckToothMoron
Gold Member
- Apr 3, 2016
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I'm curious how investors here feel about this stock market. Personally, I think it is a ticking time bomb, and expect a minimum of 30%, but likely more like 50%, fall within months.
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I'm curious how investors here feel about this stock market. Personally, I think it is a ticking time bomb, and expect a minimum of 30%, but likely more like 50%, fall within months.
Little to no growth, high PE ratios, huge influx of money into ETF's, very low VIX.Why?
Little to no growth, high PE ratios, huge influx of money into ETF's, very low VIX.Why?
The reality is that this 2017 stock market is one of the three most overvalued in U.S. history based upon price to sales, price to book value, price to GDP and Shiller’s price to earnings ratios. We can argue whether today’s stock market is the most expensive ever or the third most expensive, but it doesn’t matter, because when stocks get to this level (in 1929, 2000, 2007 and a couple of other lesser overvalued moments, such as 1973), one thing has ALWAYS happened (100% of the time) – investors’ portfolios have been clobbered, with 50% losses (at a minimum). To me, when the odds are 100% against me... those aren’t good odds.
I'm curious how investors here feel about this stock market. Personally, I think it is a ticking time bomb, and expect a minimum of 30%, but likely more like 50%, fall within months.
I don't. This week I've gotta reinvest some cash-out I took from a stock sale that seemed to have played out. Just musing over the best choice(s) on where to put it, right now it's just sitting cash.
Little to no growth, high PE ratios, huge influx of money into ETF's, very low VIX.Why?
The reality is that this 2017 stock market is one of the three most overvalued in U.S. history based upon price to sales, price to book value, price to GDP and Shiller’s price to earnings ratios. We can argue whether today’s stock market is the most expensive ever or the third most expensive, but it doesn’t matter, because when stocks get to this level (in 1929, 2000, 2007 and a couple of other lesser overvalued moments, such as 1973), one thing has ALWAYS happened (100% of the time) – investors’ portfolios have been clobbered, with 50% losses (at a minimum). To me, when the odds are 100% against me... those aren’t good odds.
There is SOME growth. Look for some undervalued, wide-moat companies. That's all I'm interested in because I only buy for the long term. But I do agree that a large part of the market is overvalued. But I'd consider even some of the outrageously priced stocks still slightly undervalued...many only seem expensive. Alphabet, Facebook, etc.
You're right though, we are in for a major correction eventually.
What you are about to see is a market shift in leaders.
With the new trade deal with China they need two million six hundred thousand tons of coal a month!Little to no growth, high PE ratios, huge influx of money into ETF's, very low VIX.Why?
The reality is that this 2017 stock market is one of the three most overvalued in U.S. history based upon price to sales, price to book value, price to GDP and Shiller’s price to earnings ratios. We can argue whether today’s stock market is the most expensive ever or the third most expensive, but it doesn’t matter, because when stocks get to this level (in 1929, 2000, 2007 and a couple of other lesser overvalued moments, such as 1973), one thing has ALWAYS happened (100% of the time) – investors’ portfolios have been clobbered, with 50% losses (at a minimum). To me, when the odds are 100% against me... those aren’t good odds.
There is SOME growth. Look for some undervalued, wide-moat companies. That's all I'm interested in because I only buy for the long term. But I do agree that a large part of the market is overvalued. But I'd consider even some of the outrageously priced stocks still slightly undervalued...many only seem expensive. Alphabet, Facebook, etc.
You're right though, we are in for a major correction eventually.
Problem now in this market breadth is very narrow, volumes are not high on the up days, and we are starting to see sell offs at the end of trading.
What you are about to see is a market shift in leaders.
I think your going to see the leaders follow the rest and grow weaker.
I'm curious how investors here feel about this stock market. Personally, I think it is a ticking time bomb, and expect a minimum of 30%, but likely more like 50%, fall within months.
I don't. This week I've gotta reinvest some cash-out I took from a stock sale that seemed to have played out. Just musing over the best choice(s) on where to put it, right now it's just sitting cash.
A little bit, focusing on strong stocks that pay a good dividend.
I'm curious how investors here feel about this stock market. Personally, I think it is a ticking time bomb, and expect a minimum of 30%, but likely more like 50%, fall within months.
I'm curious how investors here feel about this stock market. Personally, I think it is a ticking time bomb, and expect a minimum of 30%, but likely more like 50%, fall within months.
I don't. This week I've gotta reinvest some cash-out I took from a stock sale that seemed to have played out. Just musing over the best choice(s) on where to put it, right now it's just sitting cash.
We closed on a house last Tues and thinking about where to put the money.
So far, a long trip is winning.
We lost a big chunk with the Bush crash and have dreaded what will come with the cheeto.
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A little bit, focusing on strong stocks that pay a good dividend.
Oh wow.
I'll go write that down.
Sent from my iPad using USMessageBoard.com[/QUOTE
I'll bet you will get much better ROI on buying solid dividend stocks than on a long trip which has an ROI of zero.I'm curious how investors here feel about this stock market. Personally, I think it is a ticking time bomb, and expect a minimum of 30%, but likely more like 50%, fall within months.
I don't. This week I've gotta reinvest some cash-out I took from a stock sale that seemed to have played out. Just musing over the best choice(s) on where to put it, right now it's just sitting cash.
We closed on a house last Tues and thinking about where to put the money.
So far, a long trip is winning.
We lost a big chunk with the Bush crash and have dreaded what will come with the cheeto.
Sent from my iPad using USMessageBoard.com
I'm curious how investors here feel about this stock market. Personally, I think it is a ticking time bomb, and expect a minimum of 30%, but likely more like 50%, fall within months.
I don't. This week I've gotta reinvest some cash-out I took from a stock sale that seemed to have played out. Just musing over the best choice(s) on where to put it, right now it's just sitting cash.