Syria. Is Assad Winning?

[Bleipriester]

How Assad regained the upper hand...

ANALYSIS: HOW SYRIA'S ASSAD SEIZED MOMENTUM IN WAR
May 9,`14 -- Two years ago, it seemed almost inevitable that Syrian President Bashar Assad would be toppled. Despite a fierce military crackdown, people were still taking to the streets in exuberant anti-government protests and rebels were pressing their fight deeper into the capital, even placing a bomb inside a high-level security meeting that killed top regime officials including Assad's brother-in-law.

Western leaders predicted Assad would fall in few months. Almost no one thinks that now. As he prepares for elections through which he is set to claim another seven-year mandate for himself, the 48-year-old leader appears to be on a continuously upward path in the three-year-old conflict. A look at how Assad has managed to seize the momentum in the civil war:

HEZBOLLAH JOINS THE FIGHT

The Iranian-backed Lebanese militant group joined the fight in Syria publicly and earnestly in mid-2013. With thousands of experienced guerrillas and experts, the group has been instrumental in helping Assad's overstretched forces gain ground around the capital, Damascus, and in strategic Syrian towns and villages in rugged mountains near the border with Lebanon.

ARMY UNITED

Despite major defections early in the conflict, the Syrian military remains a potent force. There is no sign of significant fractures among Assad's lieutenants, and his inner circle has remained largely cohesive and united. Assad has also bolstered his military over the past year with the creation of paramilitary troops including the National Defense Force, a pro-government militia that draws heavily from Syria's minority communities and reportedly receives training from Iran.

UNEVEN FIGHT

The Syrian government has enjoyed unchecked use of its aircraft to pound opposition-held areas with missiles and crude explosives. The opposition has pleaded with the international community for more than two years to provide weapons with which to shoot down government warplanes. But the West has deep concerns that any lethal assistance could end up in the hands of extremists, and President Barack Obama has desperately sought to avoid embroiling the U.S. in another war after more than a decade of fighting in Afghanistan and Iraq.

CHEMICAL WEAPONS DEAL

In August 2013, Syria's key ally Russia stepped in to avert U.S. military strikes against regime targets by clinching a deal that would rid Syria of its chemical weapons stockpile following a toxic gas attack near Damascus that killed hundreds. Obama had said the use of chemical weapons was a "red line" that would trigger a harsh response. His waffling and change of course on the threatened airstrikes enraged Syrian opposition members and emboldened Assad.

JIHADIS VERSUS MODERATES

There is some leeway for corrections.

HEZBOLLAH:
Sure, they are there and they fight for the Syrian government. This is due to the governments help for Lebanon. But do they really turn the scale? Assad said in an interview that there are about 2000 Hezbollah fighters in Syria.

UNEVEN FIGHT:
The SAA uses aircrafts, thats an advantage. The government´s opponents also have unique methods such as extreme brutality, taking hostages and suicide attacks.

"At least 69 suicide bombings had been recorded in the conflict by the end of November 2012."
List of bombings during the Syrian Civil War - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia