The € EURO thread

[KissMy]

The Big Question is why did the European Commission allow Greece to hide it's debts so they would cause this problem today???

Goldman Sachs asked Eurostat if it was ok for them to help Greece hide their debts. Eurostat said it was fine.

 

[Trajan]

The impending Euro collapse is driving US Long bonds rates even lower. The yield for the 30 yr T-bond is down to 4.22 as of today.


PS- I was laughed at by Toro when I bought in Feb at 4.75. The fund has a duration of 20...do the math baby!!

the 10 year is just a Grecian or Spanish a hiccup away from sub 1% territory, is that simply unreal or what?

I recall giving props to Zander for buying Tbonds at some time but I don't remember razzing him this year. I remember doing so some time ago, but maybe I'm wrong.

I'm sitting in 90% cash right now. The problem with the Tbond, though, is that people view it as safe, but if you think through the logical endgame if we don't get our fiscal house in order, those holding Tbonds will be in for a very big surprise.

I've started picking away at high yielding, high quality stocks though. I've purchased JNJ recently, and have buy triggers on companies such as CAG, PG, KFT, K, HNZ etc. A 4% dividend yield + 3-5% growth will beat the 10 year over the next decade in almost any scenario. CSCO trades at 4.25x EV/EBITDA. That's fucking crazy.

Oh I was just busting Zanders cahones...


agreed, I never understood the love affair with cisco, they never paid a dividend till last year and has, by and large been on its ass. *shrugs*


If you recall in the other thread, I bought my premiums in the last dip, J&J, Intel, yes P&G ....so far the trendline is good, they all pay a dvd.
par to or ahead of inflation so, sit and hold, internal rate on my insurance polices are still ahead of the SP over the last 5 years.


I have been eyeing my gold holdings..I am torn.

 

[Trajan]

so, anyone want to go on record?


I will take a flyer, greece winds up with a lefty coalition and austerity is a goner.

( greek default is priced in anyway)

 

[JimBowie1958]

so, anyone want to go on record?


I will take a flyer, greece winds up with a lefty coalition and austerity is a goner.

( greek default is priced in anyway)

Agreed.

Methinks the EMU is going to either condense to only major nations and small nations with solid economies and banks.

Or it will entirely unravel.

Thatcher was so damned right.

 

[KissMy]

so, anyone want to go on record?


I will take a flyer, greece winds up with a lefty coalition and austerity is a goner.

( greek default is priced in anyway)

I think Greece will default but stay with the Euro!

 

[Trajan]

so, anyone want to go on record?


I will take a flyer, greece winds up with a lefty coalition and austerity is a goner.

( greek default is priced in anyway)

I think Greece will default but stay with the Euro!

wow.....ok.

 

[JimBowie1958]

so, anyone want to go on record?


I will take a flyer, greece winds up with a lefty coalition and austerity is a goner.

( greek default is priced in anyway)

I think Greece will default but stay with the Euro!

KM, how would that work? Or are you being sarcastic?

If Greece defaults, those nations injured will kick Greece out of the EMU, I feel fairly certain.

I would be interested in reading your thoughts on the subject, though.

 

[KissMy]

Everyone was cheating their way into the Euro including Germany & France. The EU, ECB & Eurostat knew this & allowed Greece into the Euro. This is a huge con game. Just because Greece is the worse or say the best at the game dose not mean the others are not going down the same drain with them. They all knew how much Greece was cheating & allowed it. They will print, write down debt & default or do whatever it takes to keep the system going.

 

[Wiseacre]

so, anyone want to go on record?


I will take a flyer, greece winds up with a lefty coalition and austerity is a goner.

( greek default is priced in anyway)

I don't think Germany will allow any more bailouts if the austerity provisions are ignored. I think the Greeks know this and will eventually form a coalition that will say one thing and do another. The question is how long Germany will continue to loan money to gov'ts that will not pay it back.

 

[Trajan]

so, anyone want to go on record?


I will take a flyer, greece winds up with a lefty coalition and austerity is a goner.

( greek default is priced in anyway)

I don't think Germany will allow any more bailouts if the austerity provisions are ignored. I think the Greeks know this and will eventually form a coalition that will say one thing and do another. The question is how long Germany will continue to loan money to gov'ts that will not pay it back.

well, considering there is back door BS going on, in that Germany is assuming or speaking to debt that the German public and us are probably not aware of (yet), believe me, we know its happening, this whole thing is an iceberg, we see just 20% or so of what there is to be seen and known.......

this is why that continent has been savaging each other since the roman empire fell, and the only let up in 2000 years, a 60 year window, was imposed/provided by us by virtue of our overwhelming power, $$$$$$$, the security blanket that they drafted off of, and a common enemy, the ussr...........now that they are a shadow of their former selves, that menace has evaporated, so it begins again amongst the same old players whose national character has changed not a wit.

These idiots will bring the whole thing down, again, watch, just as they fell into wars every 20 years or so, so to again will there be suffering on a concomitant scale with war, this time the munition, is money.

 

[Wiseacre]

Apparently the pro-bailout parties won the Greek election, which means they'll try to form a coalition gov't and ask for more time and money from the ECB. And the Germans will say no, not until you change your ways. Problem is, the greek people want the money but not the austerity measures that go with it; they want the good life with someone else footing the bill. I think there are provisions that must be met for anymore money to go out to them; No way are they even close to meeting the fiscal standards that were set; at some point the cashflow will stop and Greece will exit the euro.

 

[Trajan]

and the market will bounce as we get another WSJ headline of Greece saved, (for now) tomorrow, the insiders will make money and then reality will set in again by Wednesday.....we have seen this shit so many times its pathetic now.


so what will this make it..? default bailout 3?

 

[KissMy]

Told ya so! - Greece will remain in the Euro.

Breaking News: The Troika (European Union, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund) say they are unable to force Greece out of the EU.

Creditors will get more than a hair-cut, this time it will be a bikini-waxing!!! - Ooouuch!!!

 

[JimBowie1958]

Told ya so! - Greece will remain in the Euro.

Breaking News: The Troika (European Union, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund) say they are unable to force Greece out of the EU.

Creditors will get more than a hair-cut, this time it will be a bikini-waxing!!! - Ooouuch!!!

Arent most of those bonds bought with leverage from 5 or ten to one?

Almost any significant haircut wipes them out.

 

[Trajan]

hummm maybe no bounce?


Updated June 18, 2012, 8:24 a.m. ET

Spanish Yields Surge; Greek Relief Wanes

Spain's 10-year government bond yield soared above 7% and equities lost early gains as investors struggled to find much to cheer about in the slim victory for the New Democracy party in the Greek election.

The benchmark Stoxx 600 Index was recently just 0.1% higher at 244.42. The U.K.'s FTSE 100 fell 0.1% to 5475.13, having opened up over 1%. Germany's DAX was 0.7% higher at 6273.12 and France's CAC-40 was up 0.2% at 3094.13. Spain's IBEX 35 index was off 1.1% at 6642.50 and Italy's FTSE MIB was down 1.2% at 13233.89.

European Market Rally Fades - WSJ.com

 

[Toro]

Watch through the day and tomorrow. Sometimes there's a delayed reaction.

Or they could just sell the news.

 

[Trajan]

Told ya so! - Greece will remain in the Euro.

Breaking News: The Troika (European Union, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund) say they are unable to force Greece out of the EU.

Creditors will get more than a hair-cut, this time it will be a bikini-waxing!!! - Ooouuch!!!

sooo close..

 

[KissMy]

Told ya so! - Greece will remain in the Euro.

Breaking News: The Troika (European Union, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund) say they are unable to force Greece out of the EU.

Creditors will get more than a hair-cut, this time it will be a bikini-waxing!!! - Ooouuch!!!

sooo close..

My reasoning was based on a poll I saw a that showed that 70% of Greeks want to remain part of the eurozone. Only the parties of the extreme left and right want it to exit. The poll showed that 80% voted for parties that would prefer to keep Greece in.

 

[JimBowie1958]

Debt crisis: Greek government will be forced to seek third bail-out - Telegraph

Intersting article. Says the winners of the Greek elections will demand to renegotiate the autserity package, and also ask for a THIRD bailout.

 

[Trajan]

of course. they will keep throwing money at them , till herman the german screams stop...how so many supposedly smart people can get themselves into such a fix, is just hilarious at this point, I am beyond describing this all as pathetic.



Updated June 19, 2012, 4:36 p.m. ET

Spanish Woes Cast Rescue in New Light

BRUSSELS—The dismal market reaction to the euro zone's promise to pump as much as €100 billion ($125.75 billion) into shaky Spanish banks—underlined by the high yield the government paid on Tuesday to raise short-term funds—is prompting a rethinking of the rescue's mechanics, which have heightened worries over Madrid's ability to repay its debts.

Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy relaunched a campaign to allow the euro zone's rescue fund to directly channel the aid money into the country's lenders, rather than through the governments—a demand that has previously run aground.

more at-

Spanish Woes Cast Rescue in New Light - WSJ.com