The Inexorable Rising Seas

[multivita-man]

It is a scam. Your religion is a scam. I know you don't want to hear it but that is a fact, Moon Bat.

It's called physics (and biology), not religion. The superstitions that are found in the Bible - that's religion.

 

[multivita-man]

Gore is correct
Florida will be the first to go

All coastal areas are going to get fucked in ways they won't like. The first warning signs can probably be observed in the insurance markets. Insurance companies will either stop offering property insurance or make it really unaffordable for all except the wealthiest of property owners. Modern markets depend a lot on hedging against risks through insurance. Once they pull out of the game, it's game over for residential and commercial property markets, and that would be a domino effect. That's probably one of the first signs that something's not right.

But agriculture, power grids, resource scarcity, and biodiversity collapse will be the bigger clues. The early economic indicators are already happening (see Florida and California). We're not that far away from any and all of these emergencies, which could start as early as sometime in the next 12-24 months, and will almost certainly be noticeable by the early 2030s. I'd be very surprised if one major civilization hasn't collapsed by 2040.

 

[Cellblock2429]

The world's oceans are rising and the rate is accelerating. The best case scenario will give us 28-55 cm by 2100. The worst case scenario is over 2 meters. A 2 meter sea level rise would displace 1/10th of the entire world's population.

âItâs absolutely guaranteedâ: the best and worst case scenarios for sea level rise

Even if the world stopped emitting greenhouse gases tomorrow, ocean levels would continue to rise

www.theguardian.com

/——-/

 

[Weatherman2020]

That's true. But they have repeatedly claimed that man couldn't possibly affect it.

He's not. You are.

Of course you think humans can control the weather and change sex on a whim.

 

[Flash]

It's called physics (and biology), not religion. The superstitions that are found in the Bible - that's religion.

These Environmental Wacko nutjobs have made AGW their religion.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

The Inexorable...

Ice free Arctic
Snow a thing of the past
Guam tipped over
Cat VI hurricanes on a daily basis
Flood
Fires
Undersea Volcanoes

 

[multivita-man]

These Environmental Wacko nutjobs have made AGW their religion.

It's physics and there's plenty of data to back up AGW.

But with that being said, I kinda think the focus on AGW is misplaced. I think us ecolo-nuts would get a lot more mileage if we could simplify the discussion and speak in terms of biology, rather than esoteric physics.

The real issue here is that people are overpopulating the planet, and the planet has finite resources. If we all lived in tree houses, maybe 8 billion people wouldn't be a problem. But we don't live in tree houses; we live in urban sprawl and high-rise apartments. We drive 10-20 miles a day to/from work. We build massive shopping centers and massive parking lots. We built interstate highways and fly all over the world. We consume shit-tons of energy, and when we consume that energy, we create waste product. When we consume anything, we create waste product. We may not always see what happens to the waste, but that doesn't matter. It goes somewhere. And we also deplete resources.

And that is our real challenge and crisis. As we are the most successful species on earth, we outcompete others for available energy. As we do, we grow. As we grow, we consume resources, and we grow, and we consume some more. And we produce waste, and we grow, and we waste some more. Human consumption includes the consumption of everything from energy that's in the ground to forests to freshwater to saltwater to marine life to terrestrial life.

As for climate change, that's caused by waste product. Extracted greenhouse gases taken out of their stored state and released into the atmosphere at levels beyond our natural 'sinks' ability to absorb them naturally. So the extra stuff stays in the atmosphere and over time, changes the atmosphere's composition such that it traps heat from the sun. Thus the balance of solar radiation that stays in our atmosphere and that which escapes back into space is changed.

 

[multivita-man]

These Environmental Wacko nutjobs have made AGW their religion.

It's called you don't understand the science so you dismiss it.

But guess what: science doesn't give a fuck what you think.

 

[Crick]

Nothing has come true you moron.

CO2 has continued to increase. Global temperatures have continued to increase. Ocean temperatures have continued to increase. Sea level has continued to rise. Ice worldwide has continued to melt. The oceans have continued to get more acidic. Weather, particularly over the oceans has grown more severe. Where the fuck have you been?

We have had a slight increase in CO2

CO2 levels have increased more than 50%.

which doesn't amount to a hill of beans with Mother Nature and is beneficial to plant life.

Mother Nature? Is that the result of your critical analysis?

Most of the existence of life on earth the CO2 levels have been higher than what they are now.

For FIVE TIMES the span of time since the appearance of Homo Sapiens, they have been CONSISTENTLY LOWER. Prior to the Industrial Revolution, no hominid since Australopithecus had EVER SEEN THE CO2 LEVELS WE HAVE TODAY. Tell me you understand what I just said.

The great growth spurt of the biosphere was when the CO2 levels were substantially higher

The entire history of humanity has taken place with CO2 between 260 and 300 ppm.

Everything in your religion is bullshit.

That my beliefs are based on the conclusions of the near totality of mainstream science says quite the opposite.

Climate change is real but AGW is a scam by Leftest and other scam artists.

So, every climate scientist on the planet is a leftist willing to defraud the public to get published and get a little grant money? How fucking stupid can you BE?

That idiot Gore's book and movie was ripped to shreds by real scientists.

They take an even harsher view on you and your sources, fool.

Especially his infamous "hockey stick" graph that was created with very cherry picked ice core and tree ring data. He knows that and that is why he had no problem building a mega mansion on the coast.

It is a scam. Your religion is a scam. I know you don't want to hear it but that is a fact, Moon Bat.

Wow. My dog learns faster than you do. Al Gore had absolutely nothing to do with the MBH98 or MBH99 graphs; their creation or the latter's use in the third IPCC Assessment Reports. As to the actual "hockey stick" graphs: read this. All of it:

The term hockey stick graph was popularized by the climatologist Jerry Mahlman, to describe the pattern shown by the Mann, Bradley & Hughes 1999 (MBH99) reconstruction, envisaging a graph that is relatively flat with a downward trend to 1900 as forming an ice hockey stick's "shaft" followed by a sharp, steady increase corresponding to the "blade" portion.[1][2] The reconstructions have featured in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports as evidence of global warming. Arguments over the reconstructions have been taken up by fossil fuel industry funded lobbying groups attempting to cast doubt on climate science.[3]​

​

Paleoclimatology dates back to the 19th century, and the concept of examining varves in lake beds and tree rings to track local climatic changes was suggested in the 1930s.[4] In the 1960s, Hubert Lamb generalised from historical documents and temperature records of central England to propose a Medieval Warm Period from around 900 to 1300, followed by Little Ice Age. This was the basis of a "schematic diagram" featured in the IPCC First Assessment Report of 1990 beside cautions that the medieval warming might not have been global. The use of indicators to get quantitative estimates of the temperature record of past centuries was developed, and by the late 1990s a number of competing teams of climatologists found indications that recent warming was exceptional. Bradley & Jones 1993 introduced the "Composite Plus Scaling" (CPS) method which, as of 2009, was still being used by most large-scale reconstructions.[5][6] Their study was featured in the IPCC Second Assessment Report of 1995.​

​

In 1998 Michael E. Mann, Raymond S. Bradley and Malcolm K. Hughes developed new statistical techniques to produce Mann, Bradley & Hughes 1998 (MBH98), the first eigenvector-based climate field reconstruction (CFR). This showed global patterns of annual surface temperature, and included a graph of average hemispheric temperatures back to 1400 with shading emphasising that uncertainties (to two standard error limits) were much greater in earlier centuries.[7] Jones et al. 1998 independently produced a CPS reconstruction extending back for a thousand years, and Mann, Bradley & Hughes 1999 (MBH99) used the MBH98 methodology to extend their study back to 1000.[2][8]​

​

A version of the MBH99 graph was featured prominently in the 2001 IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR), which also drew on Jones et al. 1998 and three other reconstructions to support the conclusion that, in the Northern Hemisphere, the 1990s was likely to have been the warmest decade and 1998 the warmest year during the past 1,000 years.[8] The graph became a focus of dispute for those opposed to the strengthening scientific consensus that late 20th century warmth was exceptional.[9] In 2003, as lobbying over the 1997 Kyoto Protocol intensified, a paper claiming greater medieval warmth was quickly dismissed by scientists in the Soon and Baliunas controversy.[10] Later in 2003, Stephen McIntyre and Ross McKitrick published McIntyre & McKitrick 2003b disputing the data used in MBH98 paper. In 2004 Hans von Storch published criticism of the statistical techniques as tending to underplay variations in earlier parts of the graph, though this was disputed and he later accepted that the effect was very small.[11] In 2005 McIntyre and McKitrick published criticisms of the principal components analysis methodology as used in MBH98 and MBH99. Their analysis was subsequently disputed by published papers including Huybers 2005 and Wahl & Ammann 2007 which pointed to errors in the McIntyre and McKitrick methodology. Political disputes led to the formation of a panel of scientists convened by the United States National Research Council, their North Report in 2006 supported Mann's findings with some qualifications, including agreeing that there were some statistical failings but these had little effect on the result.[12]​

​

More than two dozen reconstructions, using various statistical methods and combinations of proxy records, support the broad consensus shown in the original 1998 hockey-stick graph, with variations in how flat the pre-20th century "shaft" appears.[12][13] The 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report cited 14 reconstructions, 10 of which covered 1,000 years or longer, to support its strengthened conclusion that it was likely that Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the 20th century were the highest in at least the past 1,300 years.[14] Further reconstructions, including Mann et al. 2008 and PAGES 2k Consortium 2013, have supported these general conclusions.​

​

Hockey stick graph (global temperature) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Crick]

And if these rapid rise in sea levels were actually to be believed by the higher ups, there's is no way in hell properties on the coasts would find anyone willing to insure them, less still grant a loan on...

Do any of you have any idea how idiotic it is to claim that sea levels aren't rising because rich people still buy ocean front property? WtF is wrong with you people?

 

[Crick]

Yes he did.
View attachment 798873
A Green Truth

No, he did not. Here is the only paragraph in your linked article in which the word Florida appears:

If Greenland and Antarctica continue to melt, Gore says the maps of the world will need to be redrawn. Low-lying areas near southern Florida, Manhattan and the area surrounding the San Francisco Bay could end up under water, Gore warns.

or, with emphases:

If Greenland and Antarctica continue to melt, Gore says the maps of the world will need to be redrawn. Low-lying areas near southern Florida, Manhattan and the area surrounding the San Francisco Bay could end up under water, Gore warns.

We all need to actually read our links before posting them.

 

[Crick]

Are you nuts? ... it's statistics ... [giggle] ... there's plenty we can do ...

Are you unfamiliar with poster Rightwinger?

 

[Orangecat]

You are obsessed with this silly AGW religion, aren't you?

Crick of Shot is funny.

 

[ReinyDays]

Another moron who doesn’t know the difference between climate and weather

Do you? ... weather uses dt, climate uses ∆t ... otherwise everything is exactly the same ... and generally we use 100 years as our ∆t ...

So tell us ... what can be "dangerous" about a 100 year average? ... why is 13ºC good, but 14ºC is bad? ...

 

[Crick]

Yes, sea levels could go back to historical heights, that's some 200 metres more. So never mind 1/10th of the world's population, many more need to shift their asses now.

If all the world's ice melted, seas would rise 70 meters.

How would sea level change if all glaciers melted? | U.S. Geological Survey

There is still some uncertainty about the full volume of glaciers and ice caps on Earth, but if all of them were to melt, global sea level would rise approximately 70 meters (approximately 230 feet), flooding every coastal city on the planet. Learn more: USGS Water Science School: Glaciers...

www.usgs.gov

 

[Crick]

View attachment 798934

Just want to point out that step 2 on the right would include the use of "common sense" and "everyone knows..."

 

[Crick]

According to Al that was supposed to have occurred ten years ago.
Still waiting for a one inch rise.

Show us a link to a reputable source QUOTING Al Gore saying whatever you think he said about Florida. Cause I think you're a lying piece of shit.

 

[Crick]

In 2007, Gore did say that the Earth was warming to such a degree that the entire Arctic ice cap will have melted away by 2014, and that he predicted in 2006 that the sea level could rise by 20 feet.

AL GORE SAYS THAT THE SEA LEVEL MAY RISE BY 20 FEET WORLDWIDE IN THE NEAR FUTURE. WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT HOW CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING MAY AFFECT KEY WEST AND THE KEYS – Key West The Newspaper

Here is the quote from your link, The Key West Newspaper: “sea level could be rising as much as 20 feet in the near future.”

The comment about the ice cap in 2014 was not a quotation. It said "In 2007, while accepting the Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts to increase awareness of the climate challenge, Gore said that the Earth was warming to such a degree that the entire Arctic ice cap will have melted away by 2014. Today, in 2016, the Arctic ice cap is larger than when Gore made his prediction. So, the scientists questioning the predicted global warming catastrophe say, nothing needs to be done to solve a problem that they say does not exist. They say that Al Gore and the scientists pushing the agenda of catastrophe are simply “alarmists.”

Here is a quotation of what Gore actually said in his Nobel speech: "One study estimated that it could be completely gone during summer in less than 22 years. Another new study, to be presented by U.S. Navy researchers later this week, warns it could happen in as little as 7 years.”

So Gore is referencing the work of researchers and is not stating anything as absolutes.

So, fuck off.

 

[Crick]

Do you? ... weather uses dt, climate uses ∆t ...

Really? Are you trying to make a joke here or do you actually believe that?

Your comments about calculus and diff eq make me think you read half of a dummy's guide book on the topic.

otherwise everything is exactly the same ... and generally we use 100 years as our ∆t ...

We? Who is we?

So tell us ... what can be "dangerous" about a 100 year average? ... why is 13ºC good, but 14ºC is bad? ...

What hundred year average are you talking about?

 

[Flash]

It's physics and there's plenty of data to back up AGW.



.

Not really.

There have been a substantial amount of fraudulent and cherry picked data so there is actually very little credible science to AGW. Just a stupid non scientific correlation, fake data and shit in shit out computer models.

There is natural climate change. Humans have also created a substantial amount of pollution that has done damage to the biosphere. However, there is not credible proof that man made CO2 emissions have altered the climate.

AGW is fake science and not be taken seriously.