American_Jihad
Flaming Libs/Koranimals
Outsider = good - insider = not so much...
What Does Rex Tillerson Need To Know?
The potential blessings of being an “outsider.”
February 17, 2017
Bruce Thornton
...
But the history of U.S. foreign policy since World War II is replete with failures to correctly understand the international landscape, suggesting that technical skills and knowledge may not be enough for managing foreign affairs. In 1956 Dwight Eisenhower and his advisors misinterpreted Egyptian president Gamal Abdul Nasser’s nationalization of the Suez Canal as an act of anticolonial nationalist self-assertion rather than a bid for regional primacy. Nor did they foresee its malign consequences, such as greater Soviet influence in the region at the expense of the United States and Israel. Even more telling, a whole academic discipline, Sovietology, along with the State Department failed to anticipate the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, or to imagine that a foreign policy “amateur” like Ronald Reagan could craft a policy––“we win, they lose” –– that hastened its destruction.
Just as consequential for today is the misunderstanding of the Iranian Revolution of 1979, which emboldened a new aggressive phase of Islamic terrorism still roiling the world nearly forty years later. Likewise, the Arab-Israel conflict has been misinterpreted by scholars of international relations, many of whom, despite all evidence to the contrary, continue to believe that Palestinian “national aspirations” and Israeli “settlements,” rather than Islamist doctrines, are the prime driver of not just that conflict, but the rise of jihadist violence elsewhere. Finally, in the last eight years, we have witnessed foreign policy decisions based on faulty or politicized analyses and unexamined assumptions, resulting in the eclipse of our prestige and effectiveness by rivals like Russia and Iran.
These failures reflect the problem of large institutions like government agencies and university disciplines––what the French social critic Alexis Carrel called “professional deformation.” Assured of steady funding and hence unaccountable to the market and, apart from political appointees, to the voters when they fail, such institutions can repeat received wisdom year after year while ignoring contrary evidence or alternative arguments that challenge the institutional paradigm.
...
So what, then, should a Secretary of State know? Technical knowledge is not as important as wisdom, common sense, and experience acquired beyond the institutions of government or the university. History, the record of human nature’s consistent behavior in similar circumstances, is more useful than the mastery of abstract theories. Human motives and actions cannot be predicted or managed with the same assurance of success as engineering or science. Mastery of data and facts is not as important as an empathetic understanding of people’s motives and goals, however alien or repugnant they may be to our own. Our goods, like human rights and peace, are not as important to those who believe that faith in a god, national honor, or domination of their neighbors is a greater good. Perceptions of weakness invite aggression by damaging the deterrent value of national prestige founded on our proven willingness to stand by our friends and punish aggressors. The capacity and willingness to wield lethal force is indispensable for protecting our security and interests. And most important, humans are by nature tragically flawed. As Immanuel Kant wrote, “from the crooked timber of humanity nothing straight can be made”—including foreign policy.
Being an “outsider,” then, like Donald Trump or Rex Tillerson, does not condemn a leader to failure. Tillerson’s practical experience with the global economy may in fact be an asset. Unfortunately, the Senate confirmation hearings for the most part focused on what Tillerson might do rather than on why he would do it. Whether the new Secretary of State is successful at helping to restore America’s global prestige and influence, or whether he fails will depend on his wisdom and philosophy of interstate relations, not his lack of technical know-how or a record of service in government institutions.
What Does Rex Tillerson Need To Know?
What Does Rex Tillerson Need To Know?
The potential blessings of being an “outsider.”
February 17, 2017
Bruce Thornton
...
But the history of U.S. foreign policy since World War II is replete with failures to correctly understand the international landscape, suggesting that technical skills and knowledge may not be enough for managing foreign affairs. In 1956 Dwight Eisenhower and his advisors misinterpreted Egyptian president Gamal Abdul Nasser’s nationalization of the Suez Canal as an act of anticolonial nationalist self-assertion rather than a bid for regional primacy. Nor did they foresee its malign consequences, such as greater Soviet influence in the region at the expense of the United States and Israel. Even more telling, a whole academic discipline, Sovietology, along with the State Department failed to anticipate the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, or to imagine that a foreign policy “amateur” like Ronald Reagan could craft a policy––“we win, they lose” –– that hastened its destruction.
Just as consequential for today is the misunderstanding of the Iranian Revolution of 1979, which emboldened a new aggressive phase of Islamic terrorism still roiling the world nearly forty years later. Likewise, the Arab-Israel conflict has been misinterpreted by scholars of international relations, many of whom, despite all evidence to the contrary, continue to believe that Palestinian “national aspirations” and Israeli “settlements,” rather than Islamist doctrines, are the prime driver of not just that conflict, but the rise of jihadist violence elsewhere. Finally, in the last eight years, we have witnessed foreign policy decisions based on faulty or politicized analyses and unexamined assumptions, resulting in the eclipse of our prestige and effectiveness by rivals like Russia and Iran.
These failures reflect the problem of large institutions like government agencies and university disciplines––what the French social critic Alexis Carrel called “professional deformation.” Assured of steady funding and hence unaccountable to the market and, apart from political appointees, to the voters when they fail, such institutions can repeat received wisdom year after year while ignoring contrary evidence or alternative arguments that challenge the institutional paradigm.
...
So what, then, should a Secretary of State know? Technical knowledge is not as important as wisdom, common sense, and experience acquired beyond the institutions of government or the university. History, the record of human nature’s consistent behavior in similar circumstances, is more useful than the mastery of abstract theories. Human motives and actions cannot be predicted or managed with the same assurance of success as engineering or science. Mastery of data and facts is not as important as an empathetic understanding of people’s motives and goals, however alien or repugnant they may be to our own. Our goods, like human rights and peace, are not as important to those who believe that faith in a god, national honor, or domination of their neighbors is a greater good. Perceptions of weakness invite aggression by damaging the deterrent value of national prestige founded on our proven willingness to stand by our friends and punish aggressors. The capacity and willingness to wield lethal force is indispensable for protecting our security and interests. And most important, humans are by nature tragically flawed. As Immanuel Kant wrote, “from the crooked timber of humanity nothing straight can be made”—including foreign policy.
Being an “outsider,” then, like Donald Trump or Rex Tillerson, does not condemn a leader to failure. Tillerson’s practical experience with the global economy may in fact be an asset. Unfortunately, the Senate confirmation hearings for the most part focused on what Tillerson might do rather than on why he would do it. Whether the new Secretary of State is successful at helping to restore America’s global prestige and influence, or whether he fails will depend on his wisdom and philosophy of interstate relations, not his lack of technical know-how or a record of service in government institutions.
What Does Rex Tillerson Need To Know?
