The Recovery Thread

[Truthmatters]

It wasnt banter it was an obsevation.

The guy is bat shit crazy.

 

[Neubarth]

It wasnt banter it was an obsevation.

The guy is bat shit crazy.

Truthmatters is a compulsive pathological liar who does not understand the truth. He can not discuss one economic issue with me or anybody else for that matter. All he can do on the board is lie all of the time.

Come on, I dare you to intelligently discuss one item about the economy. All you end up doing is calling people names because you have no understanding of what is going on in the world around you. Have you ever gone beyond lies and namecalling in your presentations on this board? That is the behavior of a three year old.

 

[Neubarth]

You are fucking insane.

As usual, more of your badinage. All you do is lie all of the time. Have you ever told the truth once in your life? I note that you openly embrace the corruption. Why?

i literally havent heard badinage since my father passed away.

maybe its a more serious statement. manufacturing is a substantial part of the economy in terms of receipts and expenditures, especially in wages. youve played that way down. thats a danger in conservative economic planning. as you are looking to judge the recovery, you are looking to bubbled sectors for signs where their role in the mix should be bearish.

a weaker buck, and a reset on demand all play into the hands of the domestic mfr sector. maybe thats what we're seeing realized?

A weaker dollar? We are actually seeing signs of Deflation. That equates to a Stronger Dollar.

Now, I know that the screwball Truthmatters will say that is not true and call me crazy for pointing it out, but I suspect that you are a more intelligent person and will listen to reality.

Manufacturing from a dollar standpoint is such a small part of our economy that what it does has very little effect on the overall economy. A one percent rise in manufacturing is the same as a 0.1 percent rise in the overall economy because manufacturing makes up ten percent of the economy. That is easy enough to understand.

Truthmatters can not understand that because he is very very stupid when it comes to reality. He can not grasp reality and even denies the unemployment numbers. What a clown he makes of himself.

 

[Toro]

Actually what the four percent increase is measuring is the higher price of fuel for trucks. THAT and nothing more. Come on, Toro, wake up to reality. Have you see the prices of gasoline and diesel soaring like I have in the past few days and months?

It is not measuring fuel costs. It is measuring volumes. The fact that volumes are rising while fuel prices are also rising is impressive.

FedEx said the same thing on Thursday.

FedEx says the global economic recovery is broadening, as the U.S. economy gains steam and Asia continues to show strong growth.

For the U.S., FedEx confirmed what economists have been saying and what government reports have been showing: Manufacturing is leading a slow economic recovery while consumers are keeping purse strings tight.

Last month, U.S. industrial production grew more than expected and the services sector accelerated at the fastest clip in more than two years. But consistently high unemployment and stagnant pay have so far held off any surge in consumer spending.

For FedEx, the company is expanding service in Asia to capitalize on growth there. In the U.S., it's pursuing more commercial business because that's where the growth is at the moment. ...

FedEx also raised its earnings forecast for the fiscal year ending in May, seeing "a continued modest recovery in the global economy."

FedEx, considered an economic bellwether because of the variety of products it ships for businesses and consumers, said Thursday it earned $239 million in the three months ended in February compared with $97 million a year earlier. Revenue rose 7 percent to $8.70 billion. The results exceeded Wall Street expectations.

The company said results were boosted by higher shipping volume, particularly at its international express and Ground units.

Average daily volume in International Priority packages grew 18 percent, led by exports from Asia.

Average daily package volume at FedEx Ground, concentrated in the U.S., grew 5 percent. Most of that growth was due to businesses shipping more packages to other businesses. The company said consumers "remain cautious."

FedEx sees economic recovery spreading - Yahoo! Finance

FedEx is one of the best barometers of the economy and it is seeing a pick-up in activity.

Toro, what you are posting is deliberately misleading. Either you have bought in to the outrageous lies of the administration, or you are trying to be funny. I am not amused. A five percent increase for ground is an improvement, but is in no way an indication of recovery.

Remember, most of FedEx's increase in profit came from overseas, mostly in Asian accounts. A five percent increase in American ground shipments says only that people are using Fed Ex more than they are using the US postal service for shipment of boxes. The theft rate in the US postal service is still very high.

Were it not for the recent raise in rates for Fed Ex delivery, Fed Ex would have lost money in the US. They now charge ten dollars to come out to business addresses to pick up a six dollar Fed Ex Express envelope. They used to make routine daily stops at business locations that had a fed ex station and there was no charge for pickup. If the volume is still there, they still come out daily, but in other cases, you have to call them and that is ten dollars on top of the fee for the envelope. Fed Ex has a corner on that market because you do not have to weigh the parcel and put the proper postage on it like with the postal service. The Postal Service was losing so many customers to FedEx that they started the pre-sized boxes commercials. "If it ships, it fits." The program is gaining momentum for the USPS, so I'd expect the Fed Ex numbers for ground to go down in the coming months as more and more people realize that they don't have to put the proper postage on anymore. Just a fee for the size of the box.

I'll listen to FedEx. They say volumes are rising and that the recovery is broadening, which is consistent with what I'm hearing elsewhere.

 

[Truthmatters]

He will deny any fact he doesnt like.

hes bat shit crazy

 

[Neubarth]

He will deny any fact he doesnt like.

hes bat shit crazy

Truthnatters, I dare you to post any of the data that I have posted and show us where it is in error. You can't because you are stupider than shit and twice as dumb. ;-)

 

[Toro]

Just for the record, as I have stated in the past, the recovery will be weak, and all this stimulus is going to create big problems in the future.

 

[elvis]

Just for the record, as I have stated in the past, the recovery will be weak, and all this stimulus is going to create big problems in the future.

when is the inflation supposed to hit us? i have heard later this year?

 

[Toro]

Don't know, but inflation will be low for some time. As long as China pegs its currency to ours, the forces will be deflationary. When China says that it is no longer pegging its currency, that is when inflation should start being a worry. But that may happen only after China crashes after its enormous housing bubble pops, which is deflationary. So maybe in 2015 or 2018.

Remember, the seeds of the inflation in the mid-70s began 10 years earlier with LBJ's war spending and Great Society.

 

[Zander]

Just for the record, as I have stated in the past, the recovery will be weak, and all this stimulus is going to create big problems in the future.

when is the inflation supposed to hit us? i have heard later this year?

I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for inflation. We have massive deflationary forces that have yet to be dealt with. Refusal to pay mortgage interest is deflationary, loss of asset values is deflationary, credit contraction is deflationary, increased margin requirements, Foreclosures, etc etc etc.....

 

[Neubarth]

It is not measuring fuel costs. It is measuring volumes. The fact that volumes are rising while fuel prices are also rising is impressive.

FedEx said the same thing on Thursday.



FedEx sees economic recovery spreading - Yahoo! Finance

FedEx is one of the best barometers of the economy and it is seeing a pick-up in activity.

Toro, what you are posting is deliberately misleading. Either you have bought in to the outrageous lies of the administration, or you are trying to be funny. I am not amused. A five percent increase for ground is an improvement, but is in no way an indication of recovery.

Remember, most of FedEx's increase in profit came from overseas, mostly in Asian accounts. A five percent increase in American ground shipments says only that people are using Fed Ex more than they are using the US postal service for shipment of boxes. The theft rate in the US postal service is still very high.

Were it not for the recent raise in rates for Fed Ex delivery, Fed Ex would have lost money in the US. They now charge ten dollars to come out to business addresses to pick up a six dollar Fed Ex Express envelope. They used to make routine daily stops at business locations that had a fed ex station and there was no charge for pickup. If the volume is still there, they still come out daily, but in other cases, you have to call them and that is ten dollars on top of the fee for the envelope. Fed Ex has a corner on that market because you do not have to weigh the parcel and put the proper postage on it like with the postal service. The Postal Service was losing so many customers to FedEx that they started the pre-sized boxes commercials. "If it ships, it fits." The program is gaining momentum for the USPS, so I'd expect the Fed Ex numbers for ground to go down in the coming months as more and more people realize that they don't have to put the proper postage on anymore. Just a fee for the size of the box.

I'll listen to FedEx. They say volumes are rising and that the recovery is broadening, which is consistent with what I'm hearing elsewhere.

Look at the actual numbers, Toro, Do not blindly believe spiel. If the numbers do not support the spiel then the spiel is not true. As previously stated, FedEx has not had greatly increased profit in America. They made most of their profit in Asia. Their data, not mine.

 

[Toro]

Volumes, not profits Neubarth. Volumes are the barometer of economic activity. And volumes were up 5%.

 

[Toro]

Just for the record, as I have stated in the past, the recovery will be weak, and all this stimulus is going to create big problems in the future.

when is the inflation supposed to hit us? i have heard later this year?

I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for inflation. We have massive deflationary forces that have yet to be dealt with. Refusal to pay mortgage interest is deflationary, loss of asset values is deflationary, credit contraction is deflationary, increased margin requirements, Foreclosures, etc etc etc.....

I vote for inflation.

Deflationary capacity is finite. There are only so many bad mortgages and idle plants. However, monetary creation is infinite. You can create as much money as you want.

I'm wagering on the guys who control the printing presses.

 

[antagon]

As usual, more of your badinage. All you do is lie all of the time. Have you ever told the truth once in your life? I note that you openly embrace the corruption. Why?

i literally havent heard badinage since my father passed away.

maybe its a more serious statement. manufacturing is a substantial part of the economy in terms of receipts and expenditures, especially in wages. youve played that way down. thats a danger in conservative economic planning. as you are looking to judge the recovery, you are looking to bubbled sectors for signs where their role in the mix should be bearish.

a weaker buck, and a reset on demand all play into the hands of the domestic mfr sector. maybe thats what we're seeing realized?

A weaker dollar? We are actually seeing signs of Deflation. That equates to a Stronger Dollar.

Now, I know that the screwball Truthmatters will say that is not true and call me crazy for pointing it out, but I suspect that you are a more intelligent person and will listen to reality.

Manufacturing from a dollar standpoint is such a small part of our economy that what it does has very little effect on the overall economy. A one percent rise in manufacturing is the same as a 0.1 percent rise in the overall economy because manufacturing makes up ten percent of the economy. That is easy enough to understand.

Truthmatters can not understand that because he is very very stupid when it comes to reality. He can not grasp reality and even denies the unemployment numbers. What a clown he makes of himself.

i wont count on the dollar as the catalyst of the deflation. there was a recession.. look at the disparity between domestic assets like houses and imported commodities like oil for a clue. up until the EC pulled the brakes on their soaring euro by illiciting reaction to greece and the piigs, the dollar was in an engineered slip. on your deflation: its only making room for all the liquidation the fed has on the calendar from the bailout, and the government has on the calendar for the 'election economy' in the fall.

a 1 point rise in any sector is newsworthy, man, although i'd attribute that to fiscal year end more than anything else.

 

[The Rabbi]

when is the inflation supposed to hit us? i have heard later this year?

I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for inflation. We have massive deflationary forces that have yet to be dealt with. Refusal to pay mortgage interest is deflationary, loss of asset values is deflationary, credit contraction is deflationary, increased margin requirements, Foreclosures, etc etc etc.....

I vote for inflation.

Deflationary capacity is finite. There are only so many bad mortgages and idle plants. However, monetary creation is infinite. You can create as much money as you want.

I'm wagering on the guys who control the printing presses.

Monetary creation is only half the issue. I believe Fisher's equation was:
MV=PT
We need an uptick in velocity to create inflation. And when that happens, watch out.

 

[Toro]

Monetary creation is only half the issue. I believe Fisher's equation was:
MV=PT
We need an uptick in velocity to create inflation. And when that happens, watch out.

That's the scary part. Velocity has collapsed. If it even ticks up a bit with the monster reserves in the system, things could get wild.

But I'm not sure if it will bleed into consumer prices. I think there is a better chance of it heading back into asset prices, and you could get bubbles forming again in stocks and commodities.

 

[Zander]

when is the inflation supposed to hit us? i have heard later this year?

I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for inflation. We have massive deflationary forces that have yet to be dealt with. Refusal to pay mortgage interest is deflationary, loss of asset values is deflationary, credit contraction is deflationary, increased margin requirements, Foreclosures, etc etc etc.....

I vote for inflation.

Deflationary capacity is finite. There are only so many bad mortgages and idle plants. However, monetary creation is infinite. You can create as much money as you want.

I'm wagering on the guys who control the printing presses.

I do not disagree - eventually we'll get inflation. But not until we deal with deflation.

 

[Toro]

See, I think we already have. I believe what we saw in 2008 and the Spring of 2009 was the deflation. I read somewhere that deflation in the system during that time was 5%-7%, and that the only reason why we didn't see any negative print was because of all the liquidity flooding the system.

You generally do not get deflation with a steep yield curve, and the yield curve has been as steep as it has ever been. The Fed is reliquifying the financial sector, which has created enormous reserves in the system. The flow of credit is flooding into asset markets, which is why stocks, bonds and commodities have soared.

 

[Neubarth]

See, I think we already have. I believe what we saw in 2008 and the Spring of 2009 was the deflation. I read somewhere that deflation in the system during that time was 5%-7%, and that the only reason why we didn't see any negative print was because of all the liquidity flooding the system.

You generally do not get deflation with a steep yield curve, and the yield curve has been as steep as it has ever been. The Fed is reliquifying the financial sector, which has created enormous reserves in the system. The flow of credit is flooding into asset markets, which is why stocks, bonds and commodities have soared.

Since the indexes show a rapidly decreasing home valuation at present, I believe that we are not yet done with Deflation. When prices that important are still falling, something has to give.

Now, if the Yuan is Increased in Value against the Dollar by thirty percent, we will see an almost instant ten percent inflation. THEN, we will be off to the races with 15 percent or more inflation for the next half dozen years. Real estate then will be the best investment from a security standpoint.

 

[Neubarth]

I vote for inflation.

Deflationary capacity is finite. There are only so many bad mortgages and idle plants. However, monetary creation is infinite. You can create as much money as you want.

I'm wagering on the guys who control the printing presses.

Toro, have you forgotten how many mortgages are now underwater? With each passing month of decreasing home prices, there are more and more and more mortgages underwater. With each week of more than 350,000 Unemployment Insurance claimants, we will see more and more and more mortgages fall further behind in their payments. What was there Friday, at least seven banks that failed? Things are continuing to get worse, not better.