The Recovery Thread

[Neubarth]

Chicago PMI came in at 58.2. A reading above 50 signals expansion. However, this month's reading was down from last month and was well below expectations.

EconomPic: Chicago PMI Shows Expansion, but at Slower Pace

Toro, when the people finally realize that there is no real recovery, that number will drop alarmingly. Unfortunately, it will probably be about the same time the stock market collapses. One will confirm the other, but which happens first, I do not know.

 

[Shorebreak]

I was listening to the national news update this morning during my commute. The broadcaster announced that leading experts (those unsourced experts whom the AP always seems to quote) are reporting good news - that we're on the road to recovery and the economy is showing visible improvement, based on the stock market results.

That was followed by an update that 60-some thousand more jobs were lost in the last month.

In other words, reports on economic improvement have no basis on whether or not the American worker is employed. If we had 90% unemployment, and domestic corporations increased profit as a result of overseas productivity, we'd probably be getting reports about a booming economy.

 

[Zander]

The economy is in the shitter. Sorry, it really is. We have lost over 8 million jobs and GDP has shrunk. You can take every "good news" story out there and cobble together a nice narrative if you want too. But that doesn't change REALITY. When you start with $100, then it drops to $50 - this is bad, right? That is a 50% drop!! Then when it go back to $75 - do you throw a party? Are you made whole again? Why not? It went up 50%!!! But you still have not recovered have you? You are still in the hole. That is the situation in the USA today. Down 25% and trading on "hope".

 

[Toro]

NSM Manufacturing hit its highest level in over 5 years.

Manufacturing grew in March at the fastest pace in more than five years, raising the odds the U.S. has embarked on a prolonged economic expansion.

The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index rose to 59.6, the highest level since July 2004 and exceeding the most optimistic forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 77 economists. Readings greater 50 signal growth.

“Manufacturing is on a tear,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York, whose forecast was the highest in the survey. It’s “turning this recovery into a more sustainable one. As production increases, it means job gains are going to spread.”

U.S. Economy: Manufacturing Jumps in Sign of Rebound (Update1) - Bloomberg.com

 

[Toro]

Diesel consumption is rising and up 8% from the bottom.

Calculated Risk: Ceridian-UCLA: Diesel fuel consumption increases in March

 

[Zander]

I agree that the economy is showing signs of recovery. It seems to me that we are reenacting 2007.

 

[Zander]

This is why I am not cheering with the Obamabots.....
Factories shine, job market weakness lingers - Yahoo! Finance

But there was still plenty of slack in the labor market. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 24,000 to a seasonally adjusted 484,000 last week.

 

[Ame®icano]

This is why I am not cheering with the Obamabots.....
Factories shine, job market weakness lingers - Yahoo! Finance

But there was still plenty of slack in the labor market. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 24,000 to a seasonally adjusted 484,000 last week.

Unexpectedly?

 

[Bahaman]

The economy is still losing hundreds of thousands of jobs every month. When that stops, you'll see the bottom. We aren't there yet....

Economies always bottom before jobs do.

ALWAYS? In every economy? When the gov't manipulates the unemployment data the way they do these days, I doubt it. Certainly you can PROVE it, right?

When you are losing 500,000 jobs a month you can spin the bad news any way you like, but a recovery it ain't.

Man bush f-cked you guys!!!


But don't worry you now have a pres with an actual honest to God brain, you'll be just fine as long as you keep the repugs out!!!

 

[Neubarth]

Unemployment rises in 24 states - The DEPRESSION GROWS WORSE.


CNNMoney - Ben Rooney -

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Nearly half of all US states reported rising unemployment rates in March, the government said Friday, with rates above the national average in 11 states and the ......

California s unemployment rate hits high of 12.6% Los Angeles Times


IT IS FUNNY I have been pointing this out for the past year. There is no real recovery. Now, these headlines are posted everywhere as if they just discovered that we are still headed DOWN.

 

[Toro]

Tech industry hiring again.

The technology industry, an engine of innovation and U.S. prosperity for more than half a century, is accelerating its recovery from the recession with surging earnings that have spurred companies to sharply ramp up their hiring.

The latest evidence for the rebound came Thursday, when Internet giant Google Inc. posted a 37% profit jump for the first quarter and chip maker Advanced Micro Devices Inc. reported a 34% revenue increase to record levels. The results follow the strong showing of bellwether Intel Corp., which Tuesday announced quarterly profit that nearly quadrupled on a 44% jump in sales (Please see related articles on page B7.)

The trio of results kicks off what is likely to be a strong earnings streak as tech spending by companies and consumers picks up. Standard & Poor's forecasts a 79% increase in tech earnings for the quarter from year-ago levels.

The growth has reached a level where tech companies are pushing to hire again, in some cases engaging in heated competition for talent. That's a turnabout for the industry, which had a series of layoffs last year, when some tech giants—notably Microsoft Corp.—had mass layoffs for the first time.

The hiring ramp-up began late last year, with demand for tech goods and services stabilizing after months of declines. At the time, Google Chief Executive Eric Schmidt said the Mountain View, Calif., company was ready to spend again, including on new recruits. On Thursday, Google said it hired 786 new employees in the first quarter and was just getting started.

"We expect to continue hiring aggressively through the year," said Google Chief Financial Officer Patrick Pichette on a call with analysts. "We have a strong pipeline of candidates primarily focused on engineering and sales, and we are on-boarding them to fuel our growth agenda as fast as possible."

Earlier this week Intel disclosed plans for what it called its first substantial hiring in five years. The company expects to hire 1,000 to 2,000 people in 2010, an Intel spokeswoman said. The Santa Clara, Calif., chip maker, which has trimmed about 20,000 workers from its payrolls since 2006, ended 2009 with 79,800 employees.

Cisco Systems Inc. in February said it plans to hire between 2,000 and 3,000 workers, after adding 2,100 employees in the three months ended Jan. 23, mostly through acquisitions. In total, the networking-gear maker employs about 66,000 workers.

The hiring isn't limited to tech behemoths, with smaller Silicon Valley companies also diving headlong into the race for people. Twitter Inc. has added about 125 employees since last May for a total of 170, and will continue ramping up, said Chief Executive Evan Williams this week. The San Francisco company, which relocated to a new headquarters last year, will have to move again in the next year or so, he added.

Social-networking company LinkedIn Corp. said it recruited 184 people last year to bring its work force to around 500 people, with most of that hiring done in the fourth quarter. The company has hired an additional 154 people so far this year.

...

Tech Leads Jobs Recovery - WSJ.com

 

[Ame®icano]

Evidence?

Google shares dropped $45 or 7.5%.
AMD shares dropped $0.35 or 3.4%.

Kinda unusual move after announcing record profits, isn't it?

 

[Toro]

Evidence?

Google shares dropped $45 or 7.5%.
AMD shares dropped $0.35 or 3.4%.

Kinda unusual move after announcing record profits, isn't it?

No. Stocks are up 10%-20% in two months. Sell the news is a common reaction after a hard move up. Plus, Google has a long history of disappointing during earnings. And nobody cares about AMD.

Maybe stocks are topping, I don't know, but I don't pay much attention to what a few stocks do around earnings over the long term.

 

[Ame®icano]

Nobody cares? Obviously you do, since you pick the news about them.

All aside, America has fallen on false promises that unemployment won't go over 8% if stimulus is passed, the same stimulus that suppose to finance private sector shovel ready jobs. What happened is opposite, unemployment went over 10% and only jobs "saved or created" where in public sector. Just 3 months back he promised to create 90K plus jobs per month. Where are those jobs? Yeah, there are some, temp census jobs, temp help services... that just masked overall decline in unemployment data.

And all those new jobs you mentioned above are not created by government stimulus.

.

 

[Toro]

Nobody cares? Obviously you do, since you pick the news about them.

I pick the news because it is my job to know what is going on, but I don't read much into what the market's reaction is regarding AMD. Intel matters, AMD does not. If you want to pick one, see what Intel did after it reported.

 

[Neubarth]

Nobody cares? Obviously you do, since you pick the news about them.

I pick the news because it is my job to know what is going on, but I don't read much into what the market's reaction is regarding AMD. Intel matters, AMD does not. If you want to pick one, see what Intel did after it reported.

Interesting that you should refer to INTC. Intel reported less income this (march) quarter than they did the previous (December) quarter and that was less than the prior (September) quarter. Now, seeing that consistent trend downward, you'd think that INTC would be in trouble.

Hell, NO! They just claim that the current quarter was heads above the same time a year ago and then "Project" Sunshine and Lollipops for the coming quarter, and all of the Sheeple who have never read a quarterly report say, "Shit, Intel is doing so damn well, we gotta buy before it doubles tomorrow." Damn, if they did not start buying.

If ever there was a perfect example of Sheeple being lead astray, that is it.

 

[Neubarth]

All aside, America has fallen on false promises that unemployment won't go over 8% if stimulus is passed, the same stimulus that suppose to finance private sector shovel ready jobs. What happened is opposite, unemployment went over 10% and only jobs "saved or created" where in public sector. Just 3 months back he promised to create 90K plus jobs per month. Where are those jobs? Yeah, there are some, temp census jobs, temp help services... that just masked overall decline in unemployment data.

And all those new jobs you mentioned above are not created by government stimulus.

.

8 more banks closed by FDIC yesterday. 0h yeah it's a recovery.

Of course there is no recovery. We have not made any substantive effort to spur a recovery. That failure to act is bringing the United States down and that could drag the whole world with us.

There as been a slight recovery in Manufacturing, perhaps as much at six percent. That is a rather big Fish Flop, but it is not a recovery. The sad reality behind that is the simple fact that Manufacturing is only TEN percent of our overall economy as I have repeatedly pointed out. Compared to the overall economy, that six percent becomes less than one percent improvement in total. (0.6%)

Meanwhile construction has shrunk to one quarter of what it used to be. Over seventy percent of former construction workers are on Food Stamps waiting to see RECOVERY.

Millions upon millions of Service Sector (70 percent of the economy) jobs have gone. The DOL has decided that since these unfortunate people can't find a service sector job within reasonable commutting distance from where they life that they are obviously not in the work force. So, mythical unemployment is pegged at ten percent because of all of those millions not in the workforce any more.

Farming is even being forced to cut back production, especially in California where their water ration has been cut back tremendously. Not only farmers are going bankrupt, but the families that lived off of jobs generated on what is now fallow land are bankrupt, too and can not pay their mortgages. Meanwhile, Hilda Solis says, "What, me worry? Hell, no. Big Brother Bama gave me this job and I toe the company line."

I am not a conspiracy theorist, but it is beginning to look to me like this whole collapse was orchestrated by government as the mistakes of the Federal and State governments have been so grossly stupid as to make you think, "Damn, it is impossible to be any more fugged up!"

 

[Toro]

Nobody cares? Obviously you do, since you pick the news about them.

I pick the news because it is my job to know what is going on, but I don't read much into what the market's reaction is regarding AMD. Intel matters, AMD does not. If you want to pick one, see what Intel did after it reported.

Interesting that you should refer to INTC. Intel reported less income this (march) quarter than they did the previous (December) quarter and that was less than the prior (September) quarter. Now, seeing that consistent trend downward, you'd think that INTC would be in trouble.

Hell, NO! They just claim that the current quarter was heads above the same time a year ago and then "Project" Sunshine and Lollipops for the coming quarter, and all of the Sheeple who have never read a quarterly report say, "Shit, Intel is doing so damn well, we gotta buy before it doubles tomorrow." Damn, if they did not start buying.

If ever there was a perfect example of Sheeple being lead astray, that is it.

Intel's revenues rose sequentially every quarter last year. Income in the forth quarter was higher than the third quarter.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=INTC

Intel's revenue and net income fell from the forth quarter because it always falls in the first quarter of the year. Intel's busiest time of the year is Christmas when it sells more computers than any other time. What matters is how they did compared to the first quarter of last year, and compared to the first quarter of last year, revenues were up 44% and net income was up 288%.

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/50863/000115752310002015/a6247520-ex991.htm

Things are getting better.

 

[Neubarth]

i pick the news because it is my job to know what is going on, but i don't read much into what the market's reaction is regarding amd. Intel matters, amd does not. If you want to pick one, see what intel did after it reported.

interesting that you should refer to intc. Intel reported less income this (march) quarter than they did the previous (december) quarter and that was less than the prior (september) quarter. Now, seeing that consistent trend downward, you'd think that intc would be in trouble.

Hell, no! They just claim that the current quarter was heads above the same time a year ago and then "project" sunshine and lollipops for the coming quarter, and all of the sheeple who have never read a quarterly report say, "shit, intel is doing so damn well, we gotta buy before it doubles tomorrow." damn, if they did not start buying.

If ever there was a perfect example of sheeple being lead astray, that is it.

intel's revenues rose sequentially every quarter last year. Income in the forth quarter was higher than the third quarter.

INTC: Income Statement for Intel Corporation - Yahoo! Finance

intel's revenue and net income fell from the forth quarter because it always falls in the first quarter of the year. Intel's busiest time of the year is christmas when it sells more computers than any other time. What matters is how they did compared to the first quarter of last year, and compared to the first quarter of last year, revenues were up 44% and net income was up 288%.

http://www.sec.gov/archives/edgar/data/50863/000115752310002015/a6247520-ex991.htm

things are getting better.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^


TOTAL BULLSHIT, TORO. BOY Have you been brainwashed into seeing things that are not there!

Operating Income or Loss:
Fourth Quarter (December) 2,497,000 Third Quarter (September) 2,579,000


After they post the operating income, I know the accountants play games with it and add and subtract any numbers that they do not like. The fact remains that Operating Income has fallen for the past two quarters. INTC is not collapsing, but they are not going anywhere either. People need to learn how to read operating statements for the actual truth they have in them.

How well I remember ten years ago when the TECH STOCK accountants could take a net operating LOSS and turn it into a profit with the use of GOODWILL. What was goodwill. Hell, that is simple. It is anything they want it to be.

 

[elvis]

interesting that you should refer to intc. Intel reported less income this (march) quarter than they did the previous (december) quarter and that was less than the prior (september) quarter. Now, seeing that consistent trend downward, you'd think that intc would be in trouble.

Hell, no! They just claim that the current quarter was heads above the same time a year ago and then "project" sunshine and lollipops for the coming quarter, and all of the sheeple who have never read a quarterly report say, "shit, intel is doing so damn well, we gotta buy before it doubles tomorrow." damn, if they did not start buying.

If ever there was a perfect example of sheeple being lead astray, that is it.

intel's revenues rose sequentially every quarter last year. Income in the forth quarter was higher than the third quarter.

INTC: Income Statement for Intel Corporation - Yahoo! Finance

intel's revenue and net income fell from the forth quarter because it always falls in the first quarter of the year. Intel's busiest time of the year is christmas when it sells more computers than any other time. What matters is how they did compared to the first quarter of last year, and compared to the first quarter of last year, revenues were up 44% and net income was up 288%.

http://www.sec.gov/archives/edgar/data/50863/000115752310002015/a6247520-ex991.htm

things are getting better.

total bullshit, toro.

weimar boy calling something bullshit is pretty ironic.