The Recovery Thread

[Toro]

Same-store sales rose 3.2% year-over-year.

ICSC: International Council of Shopping Centers

 

[Neubarth]

Same-store sales rose 3.2% year-over-year.

ICSC: International Council of Shopping Centers

Toro that is for those stores that are still open. Those that closed their doors are having a hell of a time keeping up with sales because they no longer have a sales force.

Same store sales numbers are about as reliable as Real Estate Agents reporting rising house prices and increasing sales at the same time that the national survey companies (non real estate agents) report what we all know that prices are still falling and sales are at an all time low for the Century.

 

[Toro]

Durable goods orders rose 0.5%. Ex-transportation, orders were up 0.9%.

Econoday Report: Durable Goods Orders March 24, 2010

Durable goods have risen 10.7% over the past year.

 

[antagon]

Durable goods orders rose 0.5%. Ex-transportation, orders were up 0.9%.

Econoday Report: Durable Goods Orders*March*24,*2010

Durable goods have risen 10.7% over the past year.

*deploys umbrella in anticipation of neubarth's reaction*

 

[Toro]

Rail traffic is up.

THE PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST RAIL TRAFFIC CONTINUES TO REBOUND

 

[Neubarth]

Durable goods orders rose 0.5%. Ex-transportation, orders were up 0.9%.

Econoday Report: Durable Goods Orders*March*24,*2010

Durable goods have risen 10.7% over the past year.

*deploys umbrella in anticipation of neubarth's reaction*

Why would you have to put an umbrella out. I have been reporting the numbers monthly for some time now as they are posted.

Mind you, there are two Durable Goods reports. Make certain that you know which one you are talking about. It would help you to know what you are talking about once in a while.

 

[Neubarth]

Rail traffic is up.

THE PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST RAIL TRAFFIC CONTINUES TO REBOUND

Toro, I know you are intelligent enough to know better. You are deliberately misleading the people just as if you wanted to be part of the Obama program. Most of the people on this board are very stupid, and you are taking advantage of their lack of education. I have told you and the others before about aggregate information as opposed to segregated information. Tell the people that you are sorry and confess your sins and then post the truth. Shame on you! Shame! Shame!

 

[antagon]

Durable goods orders rose 0.5%. Ex-transportation, orders were up 0.9%.

Econoday Report: Durable Goods Orders*March*24,*2010

Durable goods have risen 10.7% over the past year.

*deploys umbrella in anticipation of neubarth's reaction*

Why would you have to put an umbrella out. I have been reporting the numbers monthly for some time now as they are posted.

Mind you, there are two Durable Goods reports. Make certain that you know which one you are talking about. It would help you to know what you are talking about once in a while.

it only seems to rain on the recovery parade when you make a post; that's all.

 

[Neubarth]

Durable goods orders rose 0.5%. Ex-transportation, orders were up 0.9%.

Econoday Report: Durable Goods Orders*March*24,*2010

Durable goods have risen 10.7% over the past year.

As I have stated over and over again, we need to look at the Aggregated Information as opposed to Segregated information, Toro. Since you are looking at the Durable Goods orders without looking at the Ex Trans. I will post the Durable Goods information that I have copied down from the Yahoo Economic Calendar as it is reported or amended as the next report comes out. Again, you should be ashamed of yourself, Toro. Why deliberately mislead people? Why? Shame on you!

DURABLE ORDERS
FEB 2010 +0.5%
JAN 2010 + 3.9%
DEC 2009 + 1.9%
NOV 2009 – 0.4%
OCT 2009 – 0.6%
SEP 2009 +1.0%
AUG 2009 – 2.4%
JUL 2009 +4.8%
JUN 2009 – 1.3%
MAY 2009 +1.3%
APR 2009 +1.9%
MAR 2009 – 2.1%
FEB 2009 +3.4%
JAN 2009 – 5.2%
DEC2008 – 2.6%
NOV 2008 – 1.0 %
OCT 2008 – 8.4%
SEP 2008 – 1.0%
AUG 2008 – 4.5%


As most people know, durable goods orders with Boeing, Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman and Ford, Chrysler and GM added in are totally unreliable. Take for instance advance orders for plane shipments are booked in advance. Boeing forgot in the last quarter of 09 to book some of their sales and the government told them to just book them in the first quarter. (knowing how corrupt the government is about economic reporting, I do not believe that Boeing "forgot to report their sales to the government." I would believe that the government encouraged them to "not report" the numbers until January because they needed to continue the illusion of an economic recovery.

Regardless that kind of corrupt government chicanery results in tremendous number fluctuation. A lot of people look at Durable Goods ex transport for that reason. It does not matter, though, as we know that there has been a slight improvement in manufacturing that has had absolutely no impact on the overall economy. A lot of really stupid people on this board do not understand why that is so. Tell them, Toro why it does not matter. I know I have posted it thousands of times. Why not have somebody else tell the people the truth for a change. Then I can go back to being a Liberal and lie like hell about the economy. That is a lot more fun.

 

[Neubarth]

*deploys umbrella in anticipation of neubarth's reaction*

Why would you have to put an umbrella out. I have been reporting the numbers monthly for some time now as they are posted.

Mind you, there are two Durable Goods reports. Make certain that you know which one you are talking about. It would help you to know what you are talking about once in a while.

it only seems to rain on the recovery parade when you make a post; that's all.

I just post the truth. Only fools post that there is a recovery when there is no indication of one in the overall economy.

We are still collapsing! Geitner and Paulson and all of the rest of those High IQ Idiots have not done one real thing to stop the economic collapse. It is finally starting to dawn on them that they are Fuckups from Hell; and they are now trying more and more handouts to the specific consumers to get them spending and to keep them in their houses making payments to the banks so the smaller banks will stop failing. (All those banks failing! Damn that is embarrassing!)

If they are giving SOME (Of The People) one third of their mortgage for free, then they should give ALL (of The People) one third of their mortgage for free, or better yet, Fifty thousand dollars to every married couple who are paying a mortgage all across this country. That would temporarily solve the lack of Service Sector Spending that is the real problem in our economy. Damn it, we have got to get the American People to put Grandma back in Shady Hills Rest Home! If we don't get Grandma back in Shady Hills, the economy will continue to collapse.

It is so damn easy to understand. Why do people on this board not see it?

 

[Neubarth]

By the way, feel free to copy my post above and share it with the rest of the country. It is a damn good read.

 

[antagon]

it only seems to rain on the recovery parade when you make a post; that's all.

I just post the truth. Only fools post that there is a recovery when there is no indication of one in the overall economy.

We are still collapsing! Geitner and Paulson and all of the rest of those High IQ Idiots have not done one real thing to stop the economic collapse. It is finally starting to dawn on them that they are Fuckups from Hell; and they are now trying more and more handouts to the specific consumers to get them spending and to keep them in their houses making payments to the banks so the smaller banks will stop failing. (All those banks failing! Damn that is embarrassing!)

If they are giving SOME (Of The People) one third of their mortgage for free, then they should give ALL (of The People) one third of their mortgage for free, or better yet, Fifty thousand dollars to every married couple who are paying a mortgage all across this country. That would temporarily solve the lack of Service Sector Spending that is the real problem in our economy. Damn it, we have got to get the American People to put Grandma back in Shady Hills Rest Home! If we don't get Grandma back in Shady Hills, the economy will continue to collapse.

It is so damn easy to understand. Why do people on this board not see it?

its a good read.

i think that the government has done fairly well to mitigate catastrophic damage to the economy. what efforts that have been made came to the tune of hundreds of billions and cushioned the descent significantly. alas, i want the boom, so ive got to take the bust, too. the big takers of the expansion are amidst an investment cycle right now. better us than the government

i dont think taking note of some ascending indicators necessarily means that one is aloof to those which continue to decline. despite what you point out, we certainly are in a recovery in terms of the productivity of the country outshining losses month to month. is ignoring that and discrediting what ways the economy is recuperating similar to discounting what ways it is still ailing? i say yes.

furthermore, this is 'The Recovery Thread' where a focus on the green shoots is the whole idea. supporting these green shoots is the road to recovery as some people see it. a contraction, like any plague, hits the sickest and most vulnerable parts of the economy. the risktakers who were caught with their pants down at the wrong time, a time which better judgment would have warned was coming... some of them will be victims of the adjustment. some of those banks, particularly the tiny ones and some of those mortgage holders are among the dying vegetation from the last harvest... mulch and compost.

i think its best to recognize the busted bubbles and some of the fallout therefrom for what it is. there has been a lot done to prevent people who could pay their mortgages in the first place from catastrophe. for others, like those you advocate dishing 50k to, there's some tough luck in the oven.

its a recession, a recovery. there will be suffering and all, but that, like always, has been part of what gives the recovery and the high-points in the following cycle their shape. it is ill-advised to remold the economy precisely as before, ie a credit-driven service econ (although it will certainly have a similar shape). maybe we should pay attention to the strong, emerging trends for a clue as to what the next chapter will be more like.

 

[Neubarth]

i think that the government has done fairly well to mitigate catastrophic damage to the economy. what efforts that have been made came to the tune of hundreds of billions and cushioned the descent significantly. alas, i want the boom, so ive got to take the bust, too. the big takers of the expansion are amidst an investment cycle right now. better us than the government

... despite what you point out, we certainly are in a recovery in terms of the productivity of the country outshining losses month to month. is ignoring that and discrediting what ways the economy is recuperating similar to discounting what ways it is still ailing? i say yes.

....

its a recession, a recovery. there will be suffering and all, but that, like always, has been part of what gives the recovery and the high-points in the following cycle their shape. it is ill-advised to remold the economy precisely as before, ie a credit-driven service econ (although it will certainly have a similar shape). maybe we should pay attention to the strong, emerging trends for a clue as to what the next chapter will be more like.

Saying that the slight improvement in manufacturing is as you put it "a recovery in terms of the productivity of the country outshining losses month to month." TOTAL NONSENSE!
The losses are in the service sector regardless of government statistics. Were it not so we would not have those increased Unemployment Insurance Claims each and every week. Either jobs are being created, or jobs are being lost. That is a true indication of the improvement or lack of same in the economy. Sure, manufacturing can be up as I have pointed out for months, but if the jobs gained in that sector are not offsetting the jobs lost elsewhere, the economy is not improving.



Do you think the government efforts have saved us?

All I can see is that the government bailed out the Big Banks, the same Big Banks that caused the horrific economic problems in the first place. We do not need those damned banks. Those corrupt bastard bankers should all be in prison for fraud, not receiving multi-million dollar bonus payouts indirectly from the American People. Their banks are now given the opportunity to make Billions off of free loans from the FED. They are doing nothing for the economy but they are playing with the stock market. The direct result is that they are bleeding the American people to death. Enslaving our public for their greed and personal gain. SHUT THEM DOWN! DO IT NOW!

Meanwhile the small banks (The true Heartbeat of America) are being allowed to fail by the dozens every month. That is so damned wrong, it brings me to great anger.

Totally Corrupt Scum companies like Goldman Sachs need to be shut down and forbidden to ever restructure. The same goes with Chase, Bank of America and other satanic scum parasitic companies like them. Shut them down and put all the officers who have committed these great frauds against the American people on trial for their lives. I favor firing squads, but the majority of the American public would settle for life in prison without possibility of parole.

Let's clean up the mess and put people back to work in a New America. The old America has to die to get rid of all of this corruption.

 

[antagon]

1) MTM net gain in the GDP vs MTM decline.

2) i refute the idea that going into the future, we should look for growing employment rolls as an indicator of our economic health. that is a mistake. it is not 1966, and our economy is less and less labor intensive. dont you think that that will sideline people?

3) efforts saved us from would-be circumstances, yes.

4) small banks are not the heartbeat. they come and go. S&L anyone? small bank = boom bank = bust bank. pick a recession; tell me im wrong. dont worry; theyll come back.

5) old ideas about america have to die to get rid of all this pessimism.

 

[Neubarth]

1) MTM net gain in the GDP vs MTM decline.

2) i refute the idea that going into the future, we should look for growing employment rolls as an indicator of our economic health. that is a mistake. it is not 1966, and our economy is less and less labor intensive. dont you think that that will sideline people?

3) efforts saved us from would-be circumstances, yes.

4) small banks are not the heartbeat. they come and go. S&L anyone? small bank = boom bank = bust bank. pick a recession; tell me im wrong. dont worry; theyll come back.

5) old ideas about america have to die to get rid of all this pessimism.

1. Totally Wrong. GDP is a complete joke. It has been bought and paid for by extra government (Taxpayer Money) being pumped into the economy. It does not reflect actual economic activity in the US. It just shows how much government money had been used to boost the GDP numbers. If that government was a lasting part of the economy it could be counted, but the reality is that it will not continue and has to be shut down eventually. Without it, our GDP for the fourth quarter would be minus 5.

2. Wrong. Ours is a Service Sector Economy (Shady Hills Rest Home. In and Out Burger, Tax Preparation, Sales....) Increasing unemployment in a service sector (70 percent of our economy) is an indication of collapse in that economy.

3. Wrong. Politicians buying future favors. It saved noting but the Estate of the Big Banks.

4. Wrong. Kill the corrupt big banks and all you have left is the small banks. They ARE the true heartbeat of America. What do the Big Banks give us other than massive corruption?

5. Wrong. The Old Ideas about America were what made us great. We did not jump into wars years ago. We tried to avoid WWI and WWII. After that our politicians forgot what made us great and started spending money on wars that we did not need to be in, and foolishly have been trying to bankrupt the country. I am an old Naval Officer, highly decorated, and a Historian and I can say quite accurately, we did not need to be in any war after World War II.

 

[antagon]

i agree about the warmongering.

otherwise services are getting less and less labor intensive, just like everything else.

government spending isnt economic activity? spends the same to me, and precipitates private profits all the same. not a sustainable approach, but a recovery necessity.

disagree about the small banks. for one, they all bank with the bigger ones.

i think that nam and our recent wars were justifiable to an extent on the old premise that war will revolutionize our economy like WWII did. old ideas. new economy.

 

[Neubarth]

i agree about the warmongering.

otherwise services are getting less and less labor intensive, just like everything else.

government spending isnt economic activity? spends the same to me, and precipitates private profits all the same. not a sustainable approach, but a recovery necessity.

disagree about the small banks. for one, they all bank with the bigger ones.

i think that nam and our recent wars were justifiable to an extent on the old premise that war will revolutionize our economy like WWII did. old ideas. new economy.

All war has done since WWII is put us deeper and deeper into debt. There was some economy to the Korean War, so that was not so bad, but the foolishness of the VietNam war when Ho Chi Minh openly asked for our support after WWII was insane on our part.

Government spending is false economic activity simply to boost GDP to perpetuate the ruse that we are seeing an economic recovery. The ruse is working as a great many fools are repeating the mantra about the economic recovery. There is no Economic Recovery when all of the data are contrived or manipulated as is the case now.

In a Service Sector economy increasing employment is proof of an economic recovery. When they open Shady Hills Rest Home to accommodate Grandma and others like her, and fully staff it, then we will know that the recovery is in progress. Unfortunately Shady Hills Rest Homes all across the nation are being shut on a daily basis. That shows us a shrinking economy, not an expanding one.

If all the Shady Hills Rest homes were not being shut and there was an increase in manufacturing, THEN we could say that we have a limited economic improvement. Sadly, that is not the case.

Just because Big Banks were doing something positive for the smaller banks does not mean that other banks can not do it. We need to outlaw Big Banks because the are all manipulating and cheating and stealing and destroying our country. It is firing squad time for all of those corrupt sons of bitches. You most certainly do not agree with Goldman running the stock market up and down as they please, do you?

 

[william the wie]

With increased automation and shorter product life cycles we are becoming a Jackpot economy: score big, protect your capital and live modestly because you probably won't hit it big again. Tax and economic policies do not reflect this new reality.

 

[antagon]

i like the too big to fail concept with breaking up banks. that wont make them small banks. i still think small banks are garbage from personal experience. they're pretty corrupt, man, and aren't regged like real banks.

do you get where im coming from with busted economic trends? the shady-hills crisis might be an example. america's retirement style of putting your parents in a home is a bit ridiculous. liquidity, wealth and credit surpluses propped that trend up from the supply and the demand side.

you think that we need to rush to re-establish that bubble. i think that shit is a bit more like how it should always have been.. i hadnt considered this sector in particular, however, i am a believer that contractions tell it like it is when it comes down to what is working and what is not. bubbled industries topple and overhead/excess production workers are the first to go.

i reiterate, the service sector is not immune to automation and other means of reducing the labor intensity of produce. a contraction is the ideal time for businesses to restructure away from labor toward capital and management efficiencies.

i could care less about goldman and the stock market. that stuff is an aside to the economy, altogether... but to each his own battle. for me the stock market is a bunch of hype-wrangling anyhow. the more wrangling, the easier it is to make a buck.

 

[Toro]

Chicago PMI came in at 58.2. A reading above 50 signals expansion. However, this month's reading was down from last month and was well below expectations.

EconomPic: Chicago PMI Shows Expansion, but at Slower Pace