The Recovery Thread

[Toro]

interesting that you should refer to intc. Intel reported less income this (march) quarter than they did the previous (december) quarter and that was less than the prior (september) quarter. Now, seeing that consistent trend downward, you'd think that intc would be in trouble.

Hell, no! They just claim that the current quarter was heads above the same time a year ago and then "project" sunshine and lollipops for the coming quarter, and all of the sheeple who have never read a quarterly report say, "shit, intel is doing so damn well, we gotta buy before it doubles tomorrow." damn, if they did not start buying.

If ever there was a perfect example of sheeple being lead astray, that is it.

intel's revenues rose sequentially every quarter last year. Income in the forth quarter was higher than the third quarter.

INTC: Income Statement for Intel Corporation - Yahoo! Finance

intel's revenue and net income fell from the forth quarter because it always falls in the first quarter of the year. Intel's busiest time of the year is christmas when it sells more computers than any other time. What matters is how they did compared to the first quarter of last year, and compared to the first quarter of last year, revenues were up 44% and net income was up 288%.

http://www.sec.gov/archives/edgar/data/50863/000115752310002015/a6247520-ex991.htm

things are getting better.

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TOTAL BULLSHIT, TORO. BOY Have you been brainwashed into seeing things that are not there!

Operating Income or Loss:
Fourth Quarter (December) 2,497,000 Third Quarter (September) 2,579,000


After they post the operating income, I know the accountants play games with it and add and subtract any numbers that they do not like. The fact remains that Operating Income has fallen for the past two quarters. INTC is not collapsing, but they are not going anywhere either. People need to learn how to read operating statements for the actual truth they have in them.

How well I remember ten years ago when the TECH STOCK accountants could take a net operating LOSS and turn it into a profit with the use of GOODWILL. What was goodwill. Hell, that is simple. It is anything they want it to be.

Neubarth, it is you who is seeing only what you want to see, and who is rationalizing your position. Its hard to take your argument seriously because you don't know what you are talking about here.

Intel's SG&A is usually low in the third quarter and usually high in the forth. What you are seeing in the operating income is merely a reflection of this. This isn't a reflection of the economy. It is a reflection of how Intel runs its business.

The strength in the economy can be seen in the growth of revenues. Intel's revenues were $10.4 billion in the first quarter compared to $7.1 billion in the first quarter last year. That is an increase of nearly 50%!

Intel Reports Record First Quarter

THAT demonstrates the economy is recovering. Its bizarre to argue otherwise.

 

[Neubarth]

intel's revenues rose sequentially every quarter last year. Income in the forth quarter was higher than the third quarter.

INTC: Income Statement for Intel Corporation - Yahoo! Finance

intel's revenue and net income fell from the forth quarter because it always falls in the first quarter of the year. Intel's busiest time of the year is christmas when it sells more computers than any other time. What matters is how they did compared to the first quarter of last year, and compared to the first quarter of last year, revenues were up 44% and net income was up 288%.

http://www.sec.gov/archives/edgar/data/50863/000115752310002015/a6247520-ex991.htm

things are getting better.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^


TOTAL BULLSHIT, TORO. BOY Have you been brainwashed into seeing things that are not there!

Operating Income or Loss:
Fourth Quarter (December) 2,497,000 Third Quarter (September) 2,579,000


After they post the operating income, I know the accountants play games with it and add and subtract any numbers that they do not like. The fact remains that Operating Income has fallen for the past two quarters. INTC is not collapsing, but they are not going anywhere either. People need to learn how to read operating statements for the actual truth they have in them.

How well I remember ten years ago when the TECH STOCK accountants could take a net operating LOSS and turn it into a profit with the use of GOODWILL. What was goodwill. Hell, that is simple. It is anything they want it to be.

Neubarth, it is you who is seeing only what you want to see, and who is rationalizing your position. Its hard to take your argument seriously because you don't know what you are talking about here.

Intel's SG&A is usually low in the third quarter and usually high in the forth. What you are seeing in the operating income is merely a reflection of this. This isn't a reflection of the economy. It is a reflection of how Intel runs its business.

The strength in the economy can be seen in the growth of revenues. Intel's revenues were $10.4 billion in the first quarter compared to $7.1 billion in the first quarter last year. That is an increase of nearly 50%!

Intel Reports Record First Quarter

THAT demonstrates the economy is recovering. Its bizarre to argue otherwise.

You are creating a straw dummy and then attacking it. I have stated thousands of times the manufacturing economy has shown improvement in the past year, even though it is only ten percent of the economy. I have never said that that segment of the economy is not improving. Why you would accuse me of this, I do not know and suspect that you are resorting to such totally blatant dishonesty to try to be funny. If you tell a lie big enough and boldly enough you think everybody will laugh. Sadly, fools take you seriously.

It is not funny. This is a very serious issue. There are nincompoops out there who are convinced that Intc has doubled their earnings in the past three quarters. Nothing could be further from the truth.

Intc has posted falling income for the past two quarters. They had a massive increase and thus outflow of advertising and sales related expense to get slight increases in revenue. That is proof positive that if you push product, you can claim increasing raw revenue. The fact remains that the expense of pushing product has resulted in decreasing income before magic accounting tricks. Dude, they have reached the point where any further increase in spending money to garner increased sales is counterproductive.

From my vantage point, Intc has falling earnings and it does not speak well for a company that almost has a monopoly in the world.

 

[Toro]

The Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators is at an all-time high.

Leading economic index at record high in March

(Reuters) - A gauge of the U.S. economy's prospects rose more strongly than expected to a record high in March, pointing to a steady economic recovery, a private research group said on Monday.

The Conference Board said its index of leading economic indicators increased 1.4 percent, rising for the 12th straight month, after an upwardly revised 0.4 percent gain in February.

Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a 1.0 percent rise in March from a previously reported 0.1 percent gain.

U.S. stocks held slim gains after the report, while Treasury debt prices and the U.S. dollar were little changed.

"The indicators point to a slow recovery that should continue over the next few months. The leading, coincident and lagging series are rising. Strength in demand remains the big question going forward," said Ken Goldstein, an economist at the Conference Board.

Seven of the 10 indicators that make up the leading index rose last month, with the interest rate spread, average weekly manufacturing hours and stock market prices making the largest contributions.

The drag on the index came from the real money supply, manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods and consumer expectations.

Leading economic index at record high in March | Reuters

I'm hearing that business is starting to accelerate across different industries at a faster pace than expected.

 

[Ame®icano]

Foreclosure filings in the U.S. rose 16 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier and bank seizures hit a record as lenders stepped up action against delinquent homeowners, according to RealtyTrac Inc.

A total of 932,234 homes, or one out of every 138 households, received a default or auction notice, or were repossessed by banks, the Irvine, California-based firm said today. In March, filings rose 8 percent to the most in any month since RealtyTrac began publishing reports in January 2005.

U.S. Foreclosure Filings Rise 16% as Bank Seizures Set Record

 

[KissMy]

Weather it is sustainable or not I think we are in a recovery since January this year. It is being fueled by people not paying mortgages & using that extra money to shop with. Also the government has hired 1,200,000 census workers giving us a 340,000 positive job growth.

We now have the Baltic Dry Index up, Employment up, Stocks up, Oil demand up, Yield curve up, Dollar up, Leading Economic Indicators up, Durable Goods orders up, ISM index climbing to 59% & the PMI came in at 62.6 indicating expansion.

Like I said it may not be sustainable because a lot of it is fueled by government, but as long as the Dollar holds up we are in recovery.

 

[Douger]

you people just don't get it.
There is no recovery.
Any more stupid questions ?
Unemployment rises in 24 states - Apr. 16, 2010
http://www.forbes.com/2010/04/15/japan-default-global-debt-opinions-columnists-gordon-g-chang.html
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/t...ectors/banking_and_finance/article7099390.ece
http://money.cnn.com/2010/04/08/news/economy/state_funds_jobless_benefits/index.htm
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...S-house-repossessions-hit-five-year-high.html
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-caljobs17-2010apr17,0,7129545.story

 

[editec]

The economy is still losing hundreds of thousands of jobs every month. When that stops, you'll see the bottom. We aren't there yet....

Economies always bottom before jobs do.

Depends on how "the economy" is being defined.

If you define it as how corporations and banks are doing then the people can be starving but the economy can be okay.

You remember...like during the Clinton golden age.

The people weren't doing all that well.

The market was (and to some economists the national economy) was doing just fine.

I define a depression by the number of people unemployed.

How wall street does is incidental.


The US economy is MORE than wall street, folks.

It's ALSO Main street.

 

[Toro]

I remember this type of debate at the bottom of the economy in 2003.

 

[antagon]

you people just don't get it.
There is no recovery.
Any more stupid questions ?
Unemployment rises in 24 states - Apr. 16, 2010
Will Japan Default? - Forbes.com
Bank of Ireland forced to sell off assets - Times Online
33 states out of money to fund unemployment benefits - Apr. 8, 2010
US house repossessions hit five-year high - Telegraph
California's jobless rate hits high of 12.6% in March - latimes.com

you sheeple just dont get it.

because the sun's down doesn't mean the world's not spinning.

any more stupid conjectures?

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Well from the front lines in real estate and trading:

The only way to attract equity for real estate is to offer an IRR in mid-teens.

International shipping: more lines down and consolidating, fewer ships running, and higher prices per transit

This is from a conversation with my brother in law last night who is an international trader and I'm in real estate. Neither one of us are seeing any green shoots

 

[antagon]

im in construction in the foreclosure capital of the country. couldnt escape the indicators of impending disaster in '05; cant avoid the green shoots now.

 

[KissMy]

April 14 (UPI) -- Fewer U.S. homeowners were delinquent on mortgage loans in the first quarter than in the fourth quarter of 2009, two economic research groups said. In the first quarter, 6.57 percent of homeowners were 30 days or more behind on their payments, Moody's Economy.com and Equifax said. In the previous quarter, 6.6 percent of homeowners were at least a month behind on their mortgages, USA Today reported Wednesday. While only a small improvement, "It portends a peaking of the foreclosure crisis.

Foreclosures may still rise due to banks moving more efficiently at foreclosing on delinquent on mortgages. People have gone delinquent for 2 years now without being foreclosed on giving them extra cash to spend driving retail sales. Who knows what will happen when all these people finally get evicted & have to start paying rent or mortgages again.

According to the St. Louis Federal Reserve EM-Ratio the percent of the population employed is increasing. It is difficult to track using unemployment rates because numerous unemployed fall off the rolls at varying rates. It will take at least 10 years to get back to 2008 employment levels because we have lost a lot of jobs over the last 2 years, so we will feel like we are in a recession for a long time. Who knows what will happen when the government lays off the 1.2 million Census workers.

We now have the Baltic Dry Index up, Employment up, Stocks up, Oil demand up, Yield curve up, Dollar up, Leading Economic Indicators up, Durable Goods orders up, ISM index climbing to 59% & the PMI came in at 62.6 indicating expansion.

This recovery is slow & we are likely to have another crisis before we are recovered. I am keeping an eye on Oil & Copper prices to see if the Dollar weakens to much because comparing the Dollar to other falling currencies is a useless measure. I am also watching the mortgages delinquencies because the big wave of Alt-A Mortgages are uppon us now. Also watching retail sales to see if spending drops when foreclosures pick-up & the size of the workforce all to forecast another downturn.

Our standard of living may never recover due to rising debt, taxes, utilities & commodity prices.

 

[Toro]

Land prices appear to be bottoming.

Foreclosures and depressed prices are still hammering the Phoenix housing market. Yet home builder PulteGroup Inc. this month had to fight off six other bidders to win land in the suburb of Gilbert.

In Arizona and across the U.S., home builders are battling to acquire land lots in preparation for ramping up home construction. While volume is tough to track, analysts report that land deals have been rising rapidly in recent months, causing land prices in some of the nation's weakest housing markets to rise for the first time since 2006.

"There's been an absolute land rush," said Gregor Watson, a partner with McKinley Partners, a California-based real-estate fund that works with builders.

That marks a big shift from the downturn, when builders halted development and liquidated land for pennies on the dollar. Now the companies are spending millions of dollars to boost their land supply, optimistic that sales will pick up once the employment picture improves. But the push is creating some concerns about whether builders could be overreaching. ...

Nationally, finished-lot prices, which saw low-single digit increases in the first quarter, are up nearly 20% from the trough, largely considered early 2009, according to a land survey released this week by housing-research firm Zelman & Associates. Lot prices in Phoenix and Southern California's Inland Empire have soared more than 60%. Sacramento, Orlando and Los Angeles are up between 30% and 40%.

Nationally, the best-located lots are commanding double what they would have a year earlier, said Greg Vogel, chief executive of Land Advisors Organization, a national land brokerage firm based in Scottsdale, Ariz.

"We're talking about a significant turn here," said Jim McNeil, chairman of law firm Akerman Senterfitt's national residential development practice that represents several public and private builders. "The builders think this thing has turned and they're making sizeable investments in both finished lots and raw land."

Home Builders Fight for Land to Prep for Upturn - WSJ.com

 

[Old Rocks]

Watching in my little part of Portland, Oregon, the prices are still down, but a lot more SOLD signs going up. Which is good news for me, personally.

If the orders keep coming in for the Steel Mill, they are going to put another crew on, maybe as early as June. I am getting overtime now, even though I have stated that I would rather they gave it to someone else. And will probably get a significant pay raise, just before I retire. LOL.

 

[Toro]

The Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators came out at its highest level ever.

Also, the author believes that job growth is going to be much stronger than expected because retail sales are coming stronger than expected. He argues, convincingly, that retail sales drives job growth, not the other way around. The post is worth the read.

The Bonddad Blog: Retail sales imply strong job growth for remainder of 2010

 

[Toro]

From MKM Partners, who also believe that strong job growth is coming.

The behavior of corporate profits points to stepped-up private sector hiring during the months ahead. Since companies tend to lay off workers when they have losses, it only follows that earnings recoveries are precursors to jobs recoveries. On average, earnings tend to lead private-sector hiring behavior by about one year.

Since the V-shaped recovery in profits began about one year ago, we should begin to see stronger private-sector job gains during the spring and summer. This forecast is backed up by the behavior of credit spreads (which lead payrolls) and the Conference Board's leading labor-market indicator (the Employment Trends Index). As the labor market tightens, income growth should recover, reinforcing top-line growth. The annual growth rate of profits may be peaking now, but this tends to occur in the early stages of an expansion. From Keynes to Schumpeter, this is how business cycles are supposed to work.

Private Sector Set for Job Gains - Barrons.com

 

[KissMy]

 

[Toro]

In many ways, the economic recovery has been stronger than usual. The following is a graph of 10 economic indices. With the exception of employment and housing, the metrics have seen a stronger expansion than the typical recovery since WWII. The blue line signifies the average growth since the bottom of each index. Personal income is at 160. That means personal income has grown 60% more than the average recovery since 1945. Change in payrolls is at 35, meaning that employment growth has only been 35% of the average growth since WWII.

http://www.thestreet.com/p/_commentary/newsanalysis/investingOpinion/10740590.html

 

[Zander]

one thing is for certain, this thread is a testament to irrational optimism.

 

[Toro]

This is an index of economic indicators. It is perhaps the best index I know of which gauges the health of the economy. As you can see, it started declining into recession, then deep recession, before it became widely evident that the economy was beginning to contract. Now, it is showing healthy growth.