The Recovery Thread

[antagon]

funny you call me stupid, but fail to address the viability of the LEI.

what say you of the declines it indicates before recession? what say you about the upward trend in the expansion?

call me stupid to the extents of your satisfaction neubarth. it adds great flourish to your argument. but it would be validating of your wits if you could explain why the LEI effectively precedes and coincides economic cycles despite your contention that it is a fundamentally flawed sham.

as an aside, on your theory as to why an independent org would want to mix kool-aid for the government, i'll chalk that up to your robust paranoia.

Again, you are continuing to act stupider than shit.

Remember the criteria in the LEI. Stocks do go down when the economy is starting to go to hell. That downturn in stocks is usually exaggerated by the market manipulators. Thus, because stock prices are a major ingredient in LEI, LEI will reflect a collapse in the economy. Building permits go down when there is economic malaise. Thus LEI again will reflect a collapse in the economy. Need I go on? Because of those criteria, LEI is very good at predicting recessions even when we do not have recessions. It still has no validity in indicating an improvement in the economy as you can see the criteria have no relevance to economic improvement.

The "independent org" as you call it is doing exactly what the government wants it to do, post bullshit data for the ignorant sheeple. It does it with regularity and it does it with consistency. That does not mean that the data have any validity with respect to economic recovery from a Depression that has over 30 million people out of work.

Show me people going to work in newly created jobs and I will believe we are in recovery. I have not seen that yet and do not expect to see it for some time to come.

well, you're smarter than shit, neubarth. so you say. to back that up, you've conceded that the index can indicate when the economy is slowing and is likely to slip into recession. can you go one further and concede that it also indicates trends in an expansion? if not you could explain what conspiracy or flaw works to make those predictions coincidental, but just not coincidental to 2010?

does the government want the LEI to post declining indicators? what do you think happened when those indicators were derived? what do you think is different when there's positive news?

while you pick a couple indexes which you disapprove, or which you say are gripped in conspiratorial flux, what credibility, if any, does such a wise man and economic apothecary as yourself attribute to hedging all of these indexes together and weighing them by factors?

what say you, again, that the LEI has been so successful up to and including the anticipation of this recession, and what in the last year has made it so impotent to predict any further?

i eagerly await your wisdom and jaded rehashes of intellectual superiority quips. ...plus an answer/admission that the trends in the LEI indicate those in the wider economy, if even by your conspiratorial happenstance.

 

[Paulie]

People are buying what my company sells...that is all the proof I need that the economy is looking up.

People buying crap they don't need has never exactly been any kind of strong indicator of a healthy economy.

 

[Toro]

People are buying what my company sells...that is all the proof I need that the economy is looking up.

That depends on what your co. sells.

Collection services.


The mess in Europe (and it aint over) will put paid to any recovery. Check prices for oil and copper. Demand is declining.

As a trader, it looks to me like copper has hit a near-term bottom in an upward-sloping channel. I'd be looking to buy right here, right now, with a tight stop underneath.

But I don't disagree with your premise. A 1000 point drop in the Dow could very well have been a technological glitch, but it could also have been a warning shot. I heed warning shots very seriously, so I've structured my portfolio to be very defensive. That drop could be nothing or it could be a forewarning of something very serious to come.

 

[Toro]

People are buying what my company sells...that is all the proof I need that the economy is looking up.

People buying crap they don't need has never exactly been any kind of strong indicator of a healthy economy.

Actually, it IS a good indicator of a healthy economy. It means that people feel confident enough to buy frivolous things.

Not saying that Ravi's company sells frivolous things.

 

[Toro]

Lies, Lies and more Lies. Leading Economic Indicators are a joke. Toro, tell the people what goes into LEI.

Right here.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Increases

Neubarth, you are seeing only what you want to see. You are engaging in confirmation bias, selectively using data to support your thesis and claiming all other data that contradicts your thesis as false.

These are the components of the economic index I posted here.

Personal income
Personal consumption expenditures
ISM buyers survey
Total vehicle sales
Consumer credit
Inventory to sales ratio
Capacity utilization
Industrial production
Building permits
Housing starts
Leading indicators
Dodge index
Non-defense durables expenditures
Consumer confidence
New jobless claims 4 week moving average
Nonfarm payrolls
Existing home sales
Unemployment rate
Trade deficit
Retail sales ex-autos

This index of these indicators show that the economy is expanding.

 

[Neubarth]

Lies, Lies and more Lies. Leading Economic Indicators are a joke. Toro, tell the people what goes into LEI.

Right here.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Increases

Neubarth, you are seeing only what you want to see. You are engaging in confirmation bias, selectively using data to support your thesis and claiming all other data that contradicts your thesis as false.

These are the components of the economic index I posted here.


This index of these indicators show that the economy is expanding.

Toro, that is a Damned Satanic lie and you know it!

As I have stated to those of you who want to delude the people into thinking that increasing unemployment is a positive sign of economic growth in a Severe Depression, the Leading Indicators report is, for the most part, a compendium of absolutely useless economic indicators that can be included in the following titles: new orders, jobless claims, money supply, average workweek, building permits, and stock prices.

You can break it down to individual specifics and say that if you list the individual items that it does not equal the aggregate of what I posted above. What I posted above is valid.

LEI is deliberately misleading and anybody with a brain knows it. It does a damn good job of predicting recessions when there is none. The fact remains that it does not give a valid indication of the economy. Do you want to tell the people the truth and let them know what percentage of LEI are the stock prices?

New orders are an indication of manufacturing which is ten percent of the economy. They are up, but the other 90% of the economy is down. You are effectively maintaining that since manufacturing is up that the whole economy is up. That is a blatant lie.

Jobless claims are the artificial numbers manufactured by the DOL and have no relationship to the truth. UI claims from the states tell the truth. We are still losing jobs. The rate of job loss has decreased, but we are still losing jobs.

Money supply has no value in determining recovery from a Depression. It just shows that there is more or less money and has no impact on improving the lack of job situation. The Government has been pumping money into the economy on a scale never seen before in history, and people are still losing jobs.

Average workweek is a totally useless factor when over 30 Million people are out of work.

Building permits are down to twenty five percent of what they used to be. A minor upturn (a fish flop) from 23% to 25 % is not an improvement in the economy. It is just confirmation that construction workers are still out of work.

Stock Prices? Stock Prices? That has to be the joke of the century! Stock prices are manipulated by the Big Banks with government money. What I want to see are earnings increasing.

 

[Neubarth]

For those people who were deluded by Toro's blatant dishonesty in his post, here is part of the announcement that attended the LEI report for March.

"Seven of the 10 indicators that make up the leading index rose last month, with the interest rate spread, average weekly manufacturing hours and stock market prices making the largest contributions. "

That is right, the major items in the LEI were Interest rate spreads and stock market prices. You can thank Goldman Sachs for the positive LEI in March, but the LEI in no way measures the actual unemployment, and loss of real jobs and the collapse of the Service Sector Economy. Somebody want to tell me where that 70 percent of the real economy is tabulated?

That is right, they keep it out of the LEI factors because they do not want the sheeple (BAAAAAAH!) to panic. We are in a Depression. Across the board, things are not getting better. We are still falling.

 

[Neubarth]

By the way Toro, what is my thesis?

My position is that the economy is not recovering. Slight improvement in ten percent of the economy is not improvement in 100 percent of the economy.

I have not submitted a thesis on this topic as it is plainly visible to all who will open their eyes and see.

As best I can tell from your inane posts, you must think that manufacturing is ALL of the economy.

It isn't. It is about time that you realize that.

 

[Neubarth]

funny you call me stupid, but fail to address the viability of the LEI.

what say you of the declines it indicates before recession? what say you about the upward trend in the expansion?

call me stupid to the extents of your satisfaction neubarth. it adds great flourish to your argument. but it would be validating of your wits if you could explain why the LEI effectively precedes and coincides economic cycles despite your contention that it is a fundamentally flawed sham.

as an aside, on your theory as to why an independent org would want to mix kool-aid for the government, i'll chalk that up to your robust paranoia.

Again, you are continuing to act stupider than shit.

Remember the criteria in the LEI. Stocks do go down when the economy is starting to go to hell. That downturn in stocks is usually exaggerated by the market manipulators. Thus, because stock prices are a major ingredient in LEI, LEI will reflect a collapse in the economy. Building permits go down when there is economic malaise. Thus LEI again will reflect a collapse in the economy. Need I go on? Because of those criteria, LEI is very good at predicting recessions even when we do not have recessions. It still has no validity in indicating an improvement in the economy as you can see the criteria have no relevance to economic improvement.

The "independent org" as you call it is doing exactly what the government wants it to do, post bullshit data for the ignorant sheeple. It does it with regularity and it does it with consistency. That does not mean that the data have any validity with respect to economic recovery from a Depression that has over 30 million people out of work.

Show me people going to work in newly created jobs and I will believe we are in recovery. I have not seen that yet and do not expect to see it for some time to come.

well, you're smarter than shit, neubarth. so you say. to back that up, you've conceded that the index can indicate when the economy is slowing and is likely to slip into recession. can you go one further and concede that it also indicates trends in an expansion? if not you could explain what conspiracy or flaw works to make those predictions coincidental, but just not coincidental to 2010?

does the government want the LEI to post declining indicators? what do you think happened when those indicators were derived? what do you think is different when there's positive news?

while you pick a couple indexes which you disapprove, or which you say are gripped in conspiratorial flux, what credibility, if any, does such a wise man and economic apothecary as yourself attribute to hedging all of these indexes together and weighing them by factors?

what say you, again, that the LEI has been so successful up to and including the anticipation of this recession, and what in the last year has made it so impotent to predict any further?

i eagerly await your wisdom and jaded rehashes of intellectual superiority quips. ...plus an answer/admission that the trends in the LEI indicate those in the wider economy, if even by your conspiratorial happenstance.

I have already answered your question over and over and over again. The LEI is bullshit for a service sector economy. It does not take much intelligence to see that. Ninety percent of the time the economy is expanding because this is the US of A. Since one of the major factors in the LEI is stock market prices, the LEI will go up with the market and go down with the market. Amazing how that happens.

 

[antagon]

LEI: misleading, but consistently indicative, notwithstanding.

you're brilliant, neubarth.

 

[Neubarth]

LEI: misleading, but consistently indicative, notwithstanding.

you're brilliant, neubarth.

Alas! You finally recognize the fact that stock price rise and a widening of the Interest Rate separation does not an improved economy make.

The LEI has been pointing up just like the stock market, while more and more people for the past year have lost their jobs. 30 Million people can not be wrong. They want work but can not find any.

We are in The Greatest Depression, and things continue to get worse.

 

[antagon]

i eagerly await your wisdom and jaded rehashes of intellectual superiority quips. ...plus an answer/admission that the trends in the LEI indicate those in the wider economy, if even by your conspiratorial happenstance.

I have already answered your question over and over and over again. The LEI is bullshit for a service sector economy. It does not take much intelligence to see that. Ninety percent of the time the economy is expanding because this is the US of A. Since one of the major factors in the LEI is stock market prices, the LEI will go up with the market and go down with the market. Amazing how that happens.

we're done with the LEI, neubarth. you've come around if even by your own confused reasoning.

we could stir the clownsauce on your 'greatest depression' garbage if you'd like. maybe we could start with your radical, tailor-made definition for depression required to consider our economy deeply trenched in this state. care to elucidate?

 

[Ravi]

People are buying what my company sells...that is all the proof I need that the economy is looking up.

People buying crap they don't need has never exactly been any kind of strong indicator of a healthy economy.

Actually, it IS a good indicator of a healthy economy. It means that people feel confident enough to buy frivolous things.

Not saying that Ravi's company sells frivolous things.

Like I said, it's a better mouse trap (this is an analogy for those that don't know). When the economy is good, people spend on higher quality items more often. When it isn't, they buy the junk just to get buy...or they wait.

But your point is also valid.

 

[Toro]

By the way Toro, what is my thesis?

My position is that the economy is not recovering. Slight improvement in ten percent of the economy is not improvement in 100 percent of the economy.

I have not submitted a thesis on this topic as it is plainly visible to all who will open their eyes and see.

As best I can tell from your inane posts, you must think that manufacturing is ALL of the economy.

It isn't. It is about time that you realize that.

Sorry, that is simply flat out wrong.

The economy is about output. Output is rising. "Not back to where we were before" is not a depression, nor is it a recession. We can't get back to prior levels without expanding off the bottom first. And that is what is happening now. Corporations are seeing rising sales and rising economic activity. They said it throughout their quarterly earnings calls. This has been one of the worst jobs recessions since the Depression, but the economy is not just about employment. Even then, corporations have started hiring.

Now, we could slip back into recession, I don't know. There is a lot of debt and sovereign debt crises are serious things. But to say that we are not recovering is merely you seeing only what you want to see. And it is simply flat out wrong.

 

[editec]

Key Short-Term Economic Indicators

: Harmonised Unemployment Rate



Data extracted on 14 May 2010 11:55 UTC (GMT) from OECD.Stat

Breakdown of GDP per capita in its components#

Doesn't look like a very healthy recovery to me, folks.

 

[antagon]

your links aren't all working editec. there's a lot of baggage weighing down the recovery, and i would agree that we are not booming on coincidental metrics. since you mentioned harmony, it is important to note that the domestic growth in the key short-term indicators index exceeds that of other populous developed economies. comparison is relative, no?

 

[Old Rocks]

Worms eye view again from a steel mill in Oregon.

Orders continue to rise, and I am now getting more overtime in a two week period than I got in all of 2009. Mandated overtime. Recieved a pay raise, profit sharing check for the quarter was a couple of points shy of two digits. Still, the best since 2008.

From where I sit, a slow painful recovery, but a recovery, none the less.

 

[Neubarth]

Worms eye view again from a steel mill in Oregon.

Orders continue to rise, and I am now getting more overtime in a two week period than I got in all of 2009. Mandated overtime. Recieved a pay raise, profit sharing check for the quarter was a couple of points shy of two digits. Still, the best since 2008.

From where I sit, a slow painful recovery, but a recovery, none the less.

A slow recovery in your steel mill does not equate to a recovery in all areas across the nation. We are still shedding jobs.

 

[Neubarth]

your links aren't all working editec. there's a lot of baggage weighing down the recovery, and i would agree that we are not booming on coincidental metrics. since you mentioned harmony, it is important to note that the domestic growth in the key short-term indicators index exceeds that of other populous developed economies. comparison is relative, no?

Regardless of links, as long as we are shedding jobs in a service sector economy, the Depression is getting worse. We are still shedding jobs and the Depression is living up to its name, "The Greatest Depression."

 

[Neubarth]

By the way Toro, what is my thesis?

My position is that the economy is not recovering. Slight improvement in ten percent of the economy is not improvement in 100 percent of the economy.

I have not submitted a thesis on this topic as it is plainly visible to all who will open their eyes and see.

As best I can tell from your inane posts, you must think that manufacturing is ALL of the economy.

It isn't. It is about time that you realize that.

Sorry, that is simply flat out wrong.

The economy is about output. Output is rising. "Not back to where we were before" is not a depression, nor is it a recession. We can't get back to prior levels without expanding off the bottom first. And that is what is happening now. Corporations are seeing rising sales and rising economic activity. They said it throughout their quarterly earnings calls. This has been one of the worst jobs recessions since the Depression, but the economy is not just about employment. Even then, corporations have started hiring.

Now, we could slip back into recession, I don't know. There is a lot of debt and sovereign debt crises are serious things. But to say that we are not recovering is merely you seeing only what you want to see. And it is simply flat out wrong.

Again, you have missed the boat by about one ocean length.

The economy is only to a minor degree about output. Manufacturing is only ten percent of the economy. (Actually, it is almost eleven percent right now, but I will not quibble about a fraction of one percent.) Manufacturing is up some from the bottom it hit a year and a half ago.

The service sector is still in collapsed mode.

The sad thing is that you and so many others do not know what the whole economy is about. In a service sector economy it is about JOBS. A service sector economy is JOBS. THAT is the finished product of a Service Sector Economy. Saying that a service sector economy is improving while it is still shedding jobs is insane. Calling me names because I point that out is unethical and immoral and dishonest just like that pinko slimebag on this forum who worships the government disinformation sites.

Disinformation is disinformation. It is unethical, immoral and dishonest and needs to be stopped. Yet, some people think that it is a game that should be played because it is so outrageous. When it is hurting people and people are committing suicide in ever increasing numbers because they can not find work, that disinformation needs to be stopped. The people who spread it should be encouraged to commit suicide because they are responsible for the deaths of so many.