The Recovery Thread

[antagon]

one thing is for certain, this thread is a testament to irrational optimism.

...as to irrational pessimism.

 

[Ravi]

People are buying what my company sells...that is all the proof I need that the economy is looking up.

 

[froggy]

People are buying what my company sells...that is all the proof I need that the economy is looking up.

That depends on what your co. sells.

 

[Ravi]

People are buying what my company sells...that is all the proof I need that the economy is looking up.

That depends on what your co. sells.

Yep...and that's why I know the economy is looking up.

 

[The Rabbi]

People are buying what my company sells...that is all the proof I need that the economy is looking up.

That depends on what your co. sells.

Collection services.


The mess in Europe (and it aint over) will put paid to any recovery. Check prices for oil and copper. Demand is declining.

 

[froggy]

People are buying what my company sells...that is all the proof I need that the economy is looking up.

That depends on what your co. sells.

Collection services.


The mess in Europe (and it aint over) will put paid to any recovery. Check prices for oil and copper. Demand is declining.

And i though it was bull crap.

 

[Ravi]

I don't sell collection services. Let's just say it is a better mousetrap.

 

[froggy]

I don't sell collection services. Let's just say it is a better mousetrap.

You're a tell-a- marketer.

 

[Neubarth]

People are buying what my company sells...that is all the proof I need that the economy is looking up.

That depends on what your co. sells.

Collection services.


The mess in Europe (and it aint over) will put paid to any recovery. Check prices for oil and copper. Demand is declining.

Gentlemen, as I have repeatedly said to the Buffoons on this board, we are not in recovery. Recovery would imply that things are starting to get to normal. Things have been progressively getting worse for the past three years. We ARE close to the point where we can claim that recovery looks near. There has been some minor improvement in a small part of the economy (Manufacturing), but that small part of the economy is only ten percent of the economy overall.

The nincompoops who are ballyhooing that as a RECOVERY do not have any idea about that which they speak.

When ninety percent of the remaining economy is still crashing, we are still in an increasing Depression, NOT a recovery.

 

[Neubarth]

The Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators came out at its highest level ever.

Also, the author believes that job growth is going to be much stronger than expected because retail sales are coming stronger than expected. He argues, convincingly, that retail sales drives job growth, not the other way around. The post is worth the read.

The Bonddad Blog: Retail sales imply strong job growth for remainder of 2010

Lies, Lies and more Lies. Leading Economic Indicators are a joke. Toro, tell the people what goes into LEI.

 

[antagon]

neub you've got the clown suit on again. what, specifically, is a lie or a joke about the LEI. what about the indexes which comprise it is misleading. the LEI, looking at the chart, seems to indicate the direction of the economy just fine.

you think that there's no recovery and that the economy is worsening; that alone doesn't make any and everyone who disagrees an idiot. your mere conjecture despite what indications there are that the economy is improving, seem to file your opinion under idiot.

maybe you could build your redemption by qualifying your criticism of the LEI, and why you think that it is no longer effective as an indicator of the direction of the economy.

 

[Neubarth]

neub you've got the clown suit on again. what, specifically, is a lie or a joke about the LEI. what about the indexes which comprise it is misleading. the LEI, looking at the chart, seems to indicate the direction of the economy just fine.

you think that there's no recovery and that the economy is worsening; that alone doesn't make any and everyone who disagrees an idiot. your mere conjecture despite what indications there are that the economy is improving, seem to file your opinion under idiot.

maybe you could build your redemption by qualifying your criticism of the LEI, and why you think that it is no longer effective as an indicator of the direction of the economy.

Gross stupidity on your part is no excuse for posting gibberish on this forum. Educate yourself, you stupid ass.

The Leading Indicators report is, for the most part, a compendium of absolutely useless economic indicators: new orders, jobless claims, money supply, average workweek, building permits, and stock prices.

New orders are an indication of manufacturing which is ten percent of the economy. They are up, but the other 90% of the economy is down.

Jobless claims are the artificial numbers manufactured by the DOL and have no relationship to the truth. UI claims from the states tell the truth. We are still losing jobs, and you are still stupider than shit.

Money supply has no value in determining recovery from a Depression. It just shows that there is more or less money and has no impact on improving the lack of job situation. The Government has been pumping money into the economy on a scale never seen before in history, and people are still losing jobs. I know that is hard for a shithead like you to understand, but it is the present reality.

Average workweek is a totally useless factor when over 30 Million people are out of work. Only shitheads like you would believe the lies and disinformation of the DOL.

Building permits are down to twenty five percent of what they used to be. A minor upturn (a fish flop) from 23% to 25 % is not an improvement in the economy. It is just confirmation that construction workers are still out of work.

Stock Prices? Stock Prices? That has to be the joke of the century! Stock prices are manipulated by the Big Banks with government money. What I want to see are earnings increasing.

 

[antagon]

leading factors, neubarth. leading. maybe earnings might trail orders and investment.

i've got no problem being a shithead by your estimation. maybe you could qualify your amazing intellect and the value of your estimates of me and the economy with an explanation for the effectiveness of LEI to indicate past economic cycles, and what you feel has changed, such that its measure of this cycle is such a 'lie'.

 

[Neubarth]

leading factors, neubarth. leading. maybe earnings might trail orders and investment.

i've got no problem being a shithead by your estimation. maybe you could qualify your amazing intellect and the value of your estimates of me and the economy with an explanation for the effectiveness of LEI to indicate past economic cycles, and what you feel has changed, such that its measure of this cycle is such a 'lie'.

Since the criteria selected are useless, the LEI data is useless in indicating where the economy is going. Half a century ago when manufacturing was a far greater segment of our total economy, LEI had value. As the Service Sector has grown and grown and grown, it should have been a major part of LEI. It is now over 70% of our economy. Unfortunately it is excluded from the calculations that might be of value in determining economic change.

The only valid factor in the LEI is manufacturing (new orders). You'd do better to look at new orders numbers alone. See where the orders are now compared to where they were five years ago before this depression started. If you look at the actual numbers, you will see that our economy is in serious trouble.

Remember the government has been going out of its way to mislead the public ever since the Great Depression. Now that we are in The Greatest Depression they have been going overboard to deceive and mislead. Our economy is presently royally fugged. We have fallen and can not get up.

 

[antagon]

the chart which toro posted shows a spot on leading indication for the state of the economy for the last decade. certainly the last decade isn't 50 years ago, to which you claim its effectiveness is relegated.

other than your paranoid conspiracy, and inability to correlate manufacturing activity to the service sector and wider economy, does your greatest depression theory have any basis in reality?

 

[Neubarth]

the chart which toro posted shows a spot on leading indication for the state of the economy for the last decade. certainly the last decade isn't 50 years ago, to which you claim its effectiveness is relegated.

other than your paranoid conspiracy, and inability to correlate manufacturing activity to the service sector and wider economy, does your greatest depression theory have any basis in reality?

You are pretending to be insane, aren't you? I figured that your shithead routine had to be fake because nobody could be that stupid.

There is no "paranoid conspiracy" on my part. The simple fact of the matter is that LEI is not in any way indicative of the real Service Sector Economy. It is just a misleading compilation of data that has no valid relationship to the economic state. As a former highly decorated military officer, I know that the United States government lies to the public all of the time. Government exists to serve itself, NOT the public.

LEI based upon the factors that it tabulates will show "the economy" to be functioning positively 90 percent of the time because it is created to give the impression that "things are good." Remember the government goal is to paint a nice picture to keep the sheeple tranquil. FEMA is well prepared to deal with incarceration of the rioters when the riots start. I have inspected several of the camps and can clearly say that we are prepared for Level III civil insurrection. We are not prepared for Level IV or V. If you do not know what all of this means, I suggest you educate yourself.

A real economic indicator that shows what is happening is the UI claims report as it comes in from the states. Look at that to see if the economy is improving or degrading. Right now it continuing to degrade.

 

[boedicca]

U6 Unemployment is the most important metric, imho.

The Obama Administration may abuse Stimulus and other pork funding to prop up government employment to cook the stats short term - but when the private sector is no creating decent jobs, the recovery is anemic at best.

 

[antagon]

funny you call me stupid, but fail to address the viability of the LEI.

what say you of the declines it indicates before recession? what say you about the upward trend in the expansion?

call me stupid to the extents of your satisfaction neubarth. it adds great flourish to your argument. but it would be validating of your wits if you could explain why the LEI effectively precedes and coincides economic cycles despite your contention that it is a fundamentally flawed sham.

as an aside, on your theory as to why an independent org would want to mix kool-aid for the government, i'll chalk that up to your robust paranoia.

 

[Neubarth]

funny you call me stupid, but fail to address the viability of the LEI.

what say you of the declines it indicates before recession? what say you about the upward trend in the expansion?

call me stupid to the extents of your satisfaction neubarth. it adds great flourish to your argument. but it would be validating of your wits if you could explain why the LEI effectively precedes and coincides economic cycles despite your contention that it is a fundamentally flawed sham.

as an aside, on your theory as to why an independent org would want to mix kool-aid for the government, i'll chalk that up to your robust paranoia.

Again, you are continuing to act stupider than shit.

Remember the criteria in the LEI. Stocks do go down when the economy is starting to go to hell. That downturn in stocks is usually exaggerated by the market manipulators. Thus, because stock prices are a major ingredient in LEI, LEI will reflect a collapse in the economy. Building permits go down when there is economic malaise. Thus LEI again will reflect a collapse in the economy. Need I go on? Because of those criteria, LEI is very good at predicting recessions even when we do not have recessions. It still has no validity in indicating an improvement in the economy as you can see the criteria have no relevance to economic improvement.

The "independent org" as you call it is doing exactly what the government wants it to do, post bullshit data for the ignorant sheeple. It does it with regularity and it does it with consistency. That does not mean that the data have any validity with respect to economic recovery from a Depression that has over 30 million people out of work.

Show me people going to work in newly created jobs and I will believe we are in recovery. I have not seen that yet and do not expect to see it for some time to come.

 

[antagon]

U6 Unemployment is the most important metric, imho.

The Obama Administration may abuse Stimulus and other pork funding to prop up government employment to cook the stats short term - but when the private sector is no creating decent jobs, the recovery is anemic at best.

i see what youre getting at, and agree that economic growth will be frail if employment cant improve.

i would say that economies have to realize the merits in efficiency in the same way the companies operating within them do. employment and efficiency are converse factors. but i think we've danced that tango before.

the U6 is pretty useless to me, except when it is trending up and the U3 isnt. then it could be argued that the U3 is flexing figures toward the upper/alt indexes.

perhaps the em-ratio paints a better employment doom picture. still not far enough, IMHO. to drive home my impression of the trending away from employment since reagan, one would have to take an em-ratio on the full population, making no exception for institutional citizens or the under/over aged. beyond the U6 are the pits of socialism: welfare for women, prison for men, and the equal opportunity disability ranks - all have swollen since 1980, 'employing' about half of americans of age, and belting out many more below the age of consideration.