The Recovery Thread

[Toro]

Again, you have missed the boat by about one ocean length.

The economy is only to a minor degree about output. Manufacturing is only ten percent of the economy. (Actually, it is almost eleven percent right now, but I will not quibble about a fraction of one percent.) Manufacturing is up some from the bottom it hit a year and a half ago.

The service sector is still in collapsed mode.

"Output" is total output, not just manufacturing. Output must equal "income." Thus, when GDP is rising, income is rising. How it is distributed, i.e. less unemployed, is a different issue.

 

[Toro]

Worms eye view again from a steel mill in Oregon.

Orders continue to rise, and I am now getting more overtime in a two week period than I got in all of 2009. Mandated overtime. Recieved a pay raise, profit sharing check for the quarter was a couple of points shy of two digits. Still, the best since 2008.

From where I sit, a slow painful recovery, but a recovery, none the less.

That's what this recovery is going to look like. It is going to be slow and choppy, and we may come in and out of recession.

 

[pinqy]

The economy is only to a minor degree about output. Manufacturing is only ten percent of the economy.

Right there you reveal your ignorance of economics. The standard equation for output is Y=C + I + G + (M - X) so how does your comment on manufacturing fit in that?

 

[Neubarth]

The economy is only to a minor degree about output. Manufacturing is only ten percent of the economy.

Right there you reveal your ignorance of economics. The standard equation for output is Y=C + I + G + (M - X) so how does your comment on manufacturing fit in that?

Pinko you are so fucked up in the head it is unbelievable. Did you not know that manufacturing has output? Damn, I can not believe that they let you post on here.

 

[Neubarth]

Again, you have missed the boat by about one ocean length.

The economy is only to a minor degree about output. Manufacturing is only ten percent of the economy. (Actually, it is almost eleven percent right now, but I will not quibble about a fraction of one percent.) Manufacturing is up some from the bottom it hit a year and a half ago.

The service sector is still in collapsed mode.

"Output" is total output, not just manufacturing. Output must equal "income." Thus, when GDP is rising, income is rising. How it is distributed, i.e. less unemployed, is a different issue.

Again, you are posting total bullshit. GDP has been bought by government spending. Thus we have an artificially created GDP as we have discussed numerous times before. It is not real GDP, and will collapse as soon as the tremendous wave of government spending stops or is reigned back in because we can not afford to keep spending like that with no purpose other than to drive indexes up.

Now, if Obama were actually trying to create jobs, then we might want to pretend or believe that we have actual GDP improvement.

Go ahead Toro, like I have told you many times before. Take out the artificial increase in Federal spending and look at GDP then. You will see as I pointed out so many times that it is negative. All the government spending has done is buy the index up. It has not created jobs.

 

[pinqy]

The economy is only to a minor degree about output. Manufacturing is only ten percent of the economy.

Right there you reveal your ignorance of economics. The standard equation for output is Y=C + I + G + (M - X) so how does your comment on manufacturing fit in that?

Pinko you are so fucked up in the head it is unbelievable. Did you not know that manufacturing has output? Damn, I can not believe that they let you post on here.

Yes, and the basic equation for that would be Y=K^α * L^β (for those with an education, yes I'm aware of the problems with the Cobb-Dougals function).
But surely you knew that when anyone is talking about "the economy" and mentions output, they're not talking about manufacturing output.

You are allowed to say you weren't aware of that or that you misunderstood. Are you man enough to admit that, or will you just call everyone else a liar and a fool?

 

[Neubarth]

Right there you reveal your ignorance of economics. The standard equation for output is Y=C + I + G + (M - X) so how does your comment on manufacturing fit in that?

Pinko you are so fucked up in the head it is unbelievable. Did you not know that manufacturing has output? Damn, I can not believe that they let you post on here.

Yes, and the basic equation for that would be Y=K^α * L^β (for those with an education, yes I'm aware of the problems with the Cobb-Dougals function).
But surely you knew that when anyone is talking about "the economy" and mentions output, they're not talking about manufacturing output.

You are allowed to say you weren't aware of that or that you misunderstood. Are you man enough to admit that, or will you just call everyone else a liar and a fool?

Just more of your total nonsense again for the umpteenth time. Why do you waste your time and our time with this insane gibberish?

Factory Output is Factory output. Factories (Manufacturing) as I have repeatedly told shitheads like you is only ten percent of our economy. It is obvious that other elements have output. Farms have output. Damn, how dumb are you?

The output from our factories has not offset the contraction of our economy elsewhere. Why can't you even pretend to understand that? Your pretended stupidity is dishonest and for that reason I call you a liar. YOU and liars like you are responsible for the deaths of thousands of Americans. Your type of lies drive them to suicide. Are you proud of yourself. Is it funny to you that men and women have died because of all of your lies? I think you would do far better to rid the world of yourself rather than continue to kill people with all of your dishonesty.

 

[pinqy]

Just more of your total nonsense again for the umpteenth time. Why do you waste your time and our time with this insane gibberish?

Standard textbook Econ 101 is now "insane gibberish?" By the way, I made a typo on the equation, it's really Y = C + I + G +(X-M)

Factory Output is Factory output. Factories (Manufacturing) as I have repeatedly told shitheads like you is only ten percent of our economy. It is obvious that other elements have output. Farms have output. Damn, how dumb are you?

Except Toro wasn't talking about Factory output, but general output of the economy. So your response was a non sequitur.

But thank you for proving my point that you are utterly incapable of even thinking you might be the one who is ever mistaken.

 

[antagon]

your links aren't all working editec. there's a lot of baggage weighing down the recovery, and i would agree that we are not booming on coincidental metrics. since you mentioned harmony, it is important to note that the domestic growth in the key short-term indicators index exceeds that of other populous developed economies. comparison is relative, no?

Regardless of links, as long as we are shedding jobs in a service sector economy, the Depression is getting worse. We are still shedding jobs and the Depression is living up to its name, "The Greatest Depression."

any time you want to unveil the neubarthian school definition for depression, you are more than welcome. in the meantime, calling our circumstances a great depression, nay the greatest depression, makes your supposition mere comic relief.

your association between labor and the economy indicates that, while you've embraced that the US is no longer a manufacturing-driven economy, you haven't accepted that employment is a receding factor in the US, affected at every trough in the cycle for the last 40 or so years.

 

[Paulie]

People are buying what my company sells...that is all the proof I need that the economy is looking up.

People buying crap they don't need has never exactly been any kind of strong indicator of a healthy economy.

Actually, it IS a good indicator of a healthy economy. It means that people feel confident enough to buy frivolous things.

Not saying that Ravi's company sells frivolous things.

I don't consider that healthy unless the frivolous spenders have a savings cushion, and we know that isn't the case with the average American.

Otherwise, it's just money moving with enough velocity to show graphs and charts that are pleasing to the naked eye.

 

[Toro]

Again, you have missed the boat by about one ocean length.

The economy is only to a minor degree about output. Manufacturing is only ten percent of the economy. (Actually, it is almost eleven percent right now, but I will not quibble about a fraction of one percent.) Manufacturing is up some from the bottom it hit a year and a half ago.

The service sector is still in collapsed mode.

"Output" is total output, not just manufacturing. Output must equal "income." Thus, when GDP is rising, income is rising. How it is distributed, i.e. less unemployed, is a different issue.

Again, you are posting total bullshit. GDP has been bought by government spending. Thus we have an artificially created GDP as we have discussed numerous times before. It is not real GDP, and will collapse as soon as the tremendous wave of government spending stops or is reigned back in because we can not afford to keep spending like that with no purpose other than to drive indexes up.

Now, if Obama were actually trying to create jobs, then we might want to pretend or believe that we have actual GDP improvement.

Go ahead Toro, like I have told you many times before. Take out the artificial increase in Federal spending and look at GDP then. You will see as I pointed out so many times that it is negative. All the government spending has done is buy the index up. It has not created jobs.

There has been relatively little government spending outside of the automatic stabilizers. Most of the money for the stimulus has gone towards tax cuts and social spending. Most of the stimulus money for infrastructure has yet to be spent. Government spending on automatic stabilizers always rises during a recession. That's why they exist. It's not surprising government spending has risen. It would have risen had there been no stimulus bill.

As any first-year macro 101 student knows, GDP = C + I + G + NX. Most of the economy is C. And what has C done?

Since the end of the recession last year, government spending has dramatically lagged the growth of consumption spending.

In other words, this recovery is being driven by consumers, not the government.

 

[Toro]

Rail demand is soaring.

The latest from the Association of American Railroads indicates a big pickup in train activity, a sure sign that the real economy matches what markets have been doing.

Here's a breakdown of year-over-year rail volume activity by various industries:

* Petroleum products up 51%.
* Chemicals up 42%.
* Motor Vehicles & Parts up 51%.
* Lumber (a housing tell) lagging with just a gain of 3.4%.
* Grain up 8%.

Latest Rail Data Shows HUGE Rebound In Activity

 

[Neubarth]

Toro, stop with all of the bullshit. We know that there has been some increase in spending. It in no way matches the hundreds of Billions injected into the country by the government. Denying the spending of all of that Federal money only makes you look the fool. I just can not believe you clowns.

 

[pinqy]

Toro, stop with all of the bullshit. We know that there has been some increase in spending. It in no way matches the hundreds of Billions injected into the country by the government. Denying the spending of all of that Federal money only makes you look the fool. I just can not believe you clowns.

Toro presented data from the BEA. The numbers were pretty plain. You're free to present your own data and demonstrate why it's more reliable.

But you've never been big on facts or evidence, have you?

 

[Neubarth]

Toro, stop with all of the bullshit. We know that there has been some increase in spending. It in no way matches the hundreds of Billions injected into the country by the government. Denying the spending of all of that Federal money only makes you look the fool. I just can not believe you clowns.

Toro presented data from the BEA. The numbers were pretty plain. You're free to present your own data and demonstrate why it's more reliable.

But you've never been big on facts or evidence, have you?

Just more of your insane lies, you stupid crazy shit. Get off of the board if all you do is lie all of the time.

I have posted to this fact for Toro over and over and over and over again. He pretends to understand and then post all of those insane lies from the government.

We will go back to ground zero for his benefit. I know that you are nothing but an insane troll on this board.

The FED has (at Obama's request) bought nearly two trillion worth of toxic assets in the United States and in foreign countries. That you stupid shit is money infusion into the economy. That in turn allows for investment in the economy. Remember the formula you stupid shit? The Obama administration has been pumping money galor into the economy in the form of income tax reductions, house purchase credits, new car purchase cash and a hundred other benefits, including a million new Federal Employees who have paychecks that they would not have were it not for the beneficence of Obama. CASH! CASH! CASH!

THEN STUPID IDIOTIC NINCOMPOOPS COME ON THIS BOARD AND LIE LIKE HELL SAYING THAT THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AND THE FED HAVE DONE NOTHING AND THAT THE SO CALLED POSITIVE GDP ARE REAL. Bullshit! You are total bullshit. Toro is total bullshit and the rest of the pathological liars on this forum are bullshit. All you clowns do all day long is post lie after lie after lie after lie after lie after lie, and waste the time of the serious posters.

Get the fuck off of the board, you crazy stupid pathological lying shit. GET! Go commit suicide or something else productive to your personna. We do not need pathological liars on this site.

 

[pinqy]

Just more of your insane lies, you stupid crazy shit. Get off of the board if all you do is lie all of the time.

I'm starting to think you don't understand the meaning of the word "lie" and you think it means "anything other than what Neubarth thinks."

So, as I often do, I'm giving you the chance to point out my lies (which you never do).

I said: "Toro presented data from the BEA." True or False?
"The numbers were pretty plain." True, or False?
"You're free to present your own data and demonstrate why it's more reliable." True, or False?
And the last part was a rhetorical question, so not really subject to being true or false, "But you've never been big on facts or evidence, have you?" but you could certainly have replied with your own opinion on how much facts and evidence (as opposed to opinion and unsupported claims) you usually present.

So again....which of my statements was a lie?

The FED has (at Obama's request) bought nearly two trillion worth of toxic assets in the United States and in foreign countries.

I wasn't aware of that...don't get a whole lot of news here, so a cite would be helpful so I could see the numbers for myself.

That you stupid shit is money infusion into the economy.

Buying a foreign asset is not an infusion of money into the economy; quite the opposite. For that matter, neither is buying a domestic asset, that's just a redistribution of money within the economy.

I do have a degree in this, you know.

That in turn allows for investment in the economy. Remember the formula you stupid shit?

Yes, but apparently you don't, because you're getting it wrong.

[quoteThe Obama administration has been pumping money galor into the economy in the form of income tax reductions, house purchase credits, new car purchase cash and a hundred other benefits, including a million new Federal Employees who have paychecks that they would not have were it not for the beneficence of Obama. CASH! CASH! CASH![/quote]Actually most of it isn't cash, but that's another story. Secondly, tax reductions, house purchase credits, and many other benefits don't add money into the economy. Tax reductions raise Consumer spending and lower Government Revenue (which may or may not affect Government Spending) but they don't introduce more money into the economy. Same thing with house purchase credits, though since purchas of a house is also an investment, I'm not sure how that would be allocated.

THEN STUPID IDIOTIC NINCOMPOOPS COME ON THIS BOARD AND LIE LIKE HELL SAYING THAT THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AND THE FED HAVE DONE NOTHING AND THAT THE SO CALLED POSITIVE GDP ARE REAL.

Well, GDP is an accounting tool...it's as real as anything else in finance and accounting. I have no idea why you want to discount government involvement at all, but it also does not change the FACT of what Consumption and Government Spending are.

Somehow you want to say that since people pay less taxes, their extra consumption doesn't count? Or that a shift from money allocated to G goes to C or I instead invalidates the increases in those categories. Is that correct? Of course, even though I'm asking for clarification, my bet is that you'll say I'm lying about your position. Which is very bizzarre.

 

[antagon]

he's like the economics guatama, this neubarth.

 

[Neubarth]

Somehow you want to say that since people pay less taxes, their extra consumption doesn't count? Or that a shift from money allocated to G goes to C or I instead invalidates the increases in those categories. Is that correct? Of course, even though I'm asking for clarification, my bet is that you'll say I'm lying about your position. Which is very bizzarre.

Lie after lie after lie after lie from a grossly stupid shit like you! Go do you homework and stop trying to lie your way out of your embarrassment for being so damn stupid for the hundredth time.

The Positive GDP for the past few quarters was all the product of Government spending as I have stated over a hundred times. Every time I prove it to you, you resort to your nonsense statements like the childish gibberish above.

My statement stands that you are a pathological liar from Hell and need to return to your abode and leave this board alone. The GDP is artificially contrived to delude the American public -- the ignorant Sheeple of these United States.

 

[Neubarth]

he's like the economics guatama, this neubarth.

I was buddhist for the longest time. The religion incited me to kill. I had to find something more peaceful like Islam where I only felt like killing whenever I faced Mecca and started chanting the Moon God is Great, The Moon God is Great! Man, that gets you all worked up and pretty soon you are decapitating people all over the place screaming that the Moon God is Great. Allahu akhbar!!!

 

[Neubarth]

[

I do have a degree in this, you know.

Nobody could be that stupid!!!!!

Next you are going to say that the "I" for Investment in the GDP formula has no current validity. Believe it or not, you dufus clown, by removing the Toxic assets the FED made it possible for the Banks to do business. What business did they do? Yep, they got it, they borrowed from the FED at zero interest and put the money into securities. I know you are too stupid to understand that, but it is a reality. I've pointed this out on this forum over and over again, and you keep on denying reality. Troll after troll after troll after troll. Your entire life has been spent making up lies and trolling ad infinitum.