The Recovery Thread

[william the wie]

The recovery will be an up and down affair and yes austerity means that redundant civil servants should be let go at every level of government.

 

[JakeStarkey]

I agree that austerity requires the reduction of the numbers in the civil service. Good one, Frank.

 

[Toro]

Chicago PMI came in at 68.6, well ahead of expectations and indicating strong expansion in the Chicago area. It is also the strongest reading in at least three years.

Econoday Report: Chicago PMI December 30, 2010

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Chicago is doing great, until someone has to pay the $12B deficit.

It's just like all the profits the banks are making because they don't have to write their bad loans off.

 

[Toro]

Chicago is doing great, until someone has to pay the $12B deficit.

It's just like all the profits the banks are making because they don't have to write their bad loans off.

Actually, I was expecting something more along the lines of

"Of course Chicago is doing well. How could they not be with all those kickbacks from Obama flooding to the Windy City?"

 

[Foxfyre]

The thing that bugs me about all this is how quickly some Americans accept the unacceptable as the status quo.

Saying it is getting better and being complacent when there are 50,000 fewer unemployment claims this week but there are hundreds of thousands new claims being filed in the same week doesn't stack up against reality. Not unless one's new reality is that near double digit unemployment is the way it has to be

Saying that the government is dealing with the problems when they eliminate a few hundred million in spending while adding billions in new spending is not something to cheer about. Not unless the federal government's increase in size, scope, power, and cost while American business continues to languish is considered inevitable and unavoidable.

I for one don't accept that $5 gasoline is inevitable when it is not expected that incomes will increase at a comparable ratio. I don't accept that trillion dollar deficits are our 'new reality' and we might as well accept that. I don't accept that near 10% unemployment is the way it is going to be from now on. I don't accept that big government MUST be the mama and daddy to Americans because Americans are unable to cope unless it is.

I will believe that we are in recovery when deficits are returning to manageable levels, when all Americans who need to work can find a job, and when prosperity is again evaluated on the success of American business instead of government grants.

 

[william the wie]

Chicago is doing great, until someone has to pay the $12B deficit.

It's just like all the profits the banks are making because they don't have to write their bad loans off.

Actually, I was expecting something more along the lines of

"Of course Chicago is doing well. How could they not be with all those kickbacks from Obama flooding to the Windy City?"

So true. The muni guarantees IL got from the president as stimulus may very well be the only thing keeping the state and city alive assuming other subsidies do not surface. Good catch.

 

[JakeStarkey]

The thing that bugs me about all this is how quickly some Americans accept the unacceptable as the status quo.

Saying it is getting better and being complacent when there are 50,000 fewer unemployment claims this week but there are hundreds of thousands new claims being filed in the same week doesn't stack up against reality. Not unless one's new reality is that near double digit unemployment is the way it has to be

Saying that the government is dealing with the problems when they eliminate a few hundred million in spending while adding billions in new spending is not something to cheer about. Not unless the federal government's increase in size, scope, power, and cost while American business continues to languish is considered inevitable and unavoidable.

I for one don't accept that $5 gasoline is inevitable when it is not expected that incomes will increase at a comparable ratio. I don't accept that trillion dollar deficits are our 'new reality' and we might as well accept that. I don't accept that near 10% unemployment is the way it is going to be from now on. I don't accept that big government MUST be the mama and daddy to Americans because Americans are unable to cope unless it is.

I will believe that we are in recovery when deficits are returning to manageable levels, when all Americans who need to work can find a job, and when prosperity is again evaluated on the success of American business instead of government grants.

One: Only supply and demand have anything to do with pricing of gasoline, not incomes.

Two: The last paragraph should be "I will believe we are healthy again economically when . . .", not "when . . . .".

 

[Ravi]

Chicago is doing great, until someone has to pay the $12B deficit.

It's just like all the profits the banks are making because they don't have to write their bad loans off.

Actually, I was expecting something more along the lines of

"Of course Chicago is doing well. How could they not be with all those kickbacks from Obama flooding to the Windy City?"

So true. The muni guarantees IL got from the president as stimulus may very well be the only thing keeping the state and city alive assuming other subsidies do not surface. Good catch.

Oy!

 

[Rozman]

When Obama begins campaigning we will be getting all sorts of little tid bits of the economy recovering in leaps and bounds thanks to our little community organizer. The economy is poised on the brink of something never before achieved in the history of all mankind.Chris Mathews has an orgasm right on TV.

As the election gets nearer and nearer the economic news gets better and better.....Chris Mathews is removed from the air because he had a massive orgasm and was rushed to the emergency room.
The set was closed for cleanup.

The recovery is all timed to hit when the election is a few months away.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Rozman, let's hope it recovers more quickly than that. But you are right the Dems will play it politically, as would any political party.

 

[Paulie]

When Obama begins campaigning we will be getting all sorts of little tid bits of the economy recovering in leaps and bounds thanks to our little community organizer. The economy is poised on the brink of something never before achieved in the history of all mankind.Chris Mathews has an orgasm right on TV.

As the election gets nearer and nearer the economic news gets better and better.....Chris Mathews is removed from the air because he had a massive orgasm and was rushed to the emergency room.
The set was closed for cleanup.

The recovery is all timed to hit when the election is a few months away.

I'm the furthest thing from an Obama supporter, and this is one of the gayest things I've read in a while.

 

[Rozman]

When Obama begins campaigning we will be getting all sorts of little tid bits of the economy recovering in leaps and bounds thanks to our little community organizer. The economy is poised on the brink of something never before achieved in the history of all mankind.Chris Mathews has an orgasm right on TV.

As the election gets nearer and nearer the economic news gets better and better.....Chris Mathews is removed from the air because he had a massive orgasm and was rushed to the emergency room.
The set was closed for cleanup.

The recovery is all timed to hit when the election is a few months away.

I'm the furthest thing from an Obama supporter, and this is one of the gayest things I've read in a while.

Hey don't kill the messenger Mathews is the one with the tingly feeling running up his leg when the Chosen one gives a speech!.....

 

[Foxfyre]

When Obama begins campaigning we will be getting all sorts of little tid bits of the economy recovering in leaps and bounds thanks to our little community organizer. The economy is poised on the brink of something never before achieved in the history of all mankind.Chris Mathews has an orgasm right on TV.

As the election gets nearer and nearer the economic news gets better and better.....Chris Mathews is removed from the air because he had a massive orgasm and was rushed to the emergency room.
The set was closed for cleanup.

The recovery is all timed to hit when the election is a few months away.

I'm the furthest thing from an Obama supporter, and this is one of the gayest things I've read in a while.

Hey don't kill the messenger Mathews is the one with the tingly feeling running up his leg when the Chosen one gives a speech!.....

You have to understand that those who don't get your metaphor are those who get most of their news from Daily Kos, Huff Post, and such as that and probably never heard about the 'tingle up the leg'

 

[Toro]

The recent Chicago PMI was the highest reading since 1988, suggesting strong expansion ahead.

Bespoke Investment Group - Think BIG - Highest Chicago PMI Since1988

 

[loosecannon]

and the leading economic indicators published by the Conference Board are as strong as they have been in 3 years.

It certainly feels like we are near the bottom of the business cycle, unless another shoe falls.

 

[JakeStarkey]

loosecannon, I hope you are right. But what about the commercial mortgage issues that have come due the ending quarter and this quarter? I have heard some banker friends tell me that this could be far worse than the private mortgage meltdown. What do you think?

 

[Toro]

and the leading economic indicators published by the Conference Board are as strong as they have been in 3 years.

It certainly falls like we are near the bottom of the business cycle, unless another shoe falls.

I agree. From what' I'm hearing, corporations are generally pretty positive.

The big hurdle will be what happens when QE2 ends in June?

This is what a balance sheet recession feels like, moving in stops and starts. It's different from the recoveries we had post-war during the last century.

 

[Truthmatters]

Anyone that think the US will just fold up and blow away is crazy.

we will recover and should NEVER return to the economy that caused this mess ever again.

 

[william the wie]

and the leading economic indicators published by the Conference Board are as strong as they have been in 3 years.

It certainly falls like we are near the bottom of the business cycle, unless another shoe falls.

I agree. From what' I'm hearing, corporations are generally pretty positive.

The big hurdle will be what happens when QE2 ends in June?

This is what a balance sheet recession feels like, moving in stops and starts. It's different from the recoveries we had post-war during the last century.

The scary part is that the US balance sheet was one of the cleanest, perhaps the cleanest in the world. While it is a little early to say it definitely the financial crisis resembles malware run amok only wetware not software.

The US financial markets for the past thirty years have gained most of their profits through concealing losses and falsifying profits for Eurasia. There has been spillover to the US because the US mortgage market was the raw material for creating financial instruments juicing balance sheets and income statements mostly in Eurasia. However those mostly 30 year instruments will be causing problems overseas for the next 24 years at least.