The Serious Stock Market Crash Thread

[Toro]

I agree.

I closed my trade this morning at a loss and continued buying silver that I started earlier in the week. I like silver here more than gold.

Bank problems in Europe and the horrible Philly Fed number are hammering the market this morning.

 

[Trajan]

my strategy was/is jumping in on the yearly lows; P&G, J&J I'll bottom at 58,



full disclosure; I have lock in on Adobe at 22 and Intel at 19.

WMT was triggered today.

that was last wed. soooo the market is tanking again. *rubs hands with glee*...yes my pretties.....

Procter and Gamble locked at 60.25....I took on Adobe at 23.....junked my own rule....but its a 35 stock, no doubt, Intel? won't drop to 19, at least not to day, its a dividend only stock, hummm, no I won't change my buy, 19 or bust.
J&J, nope, not yet.

theres always tomorrow..the European bank issue is imho, just getting warmed up......

 

[Toro]

I have discussions with a friend on INTC. He wants to buy it here because of the dividend. I trade semis off book value. Divy is 4%, pretty good. However, a bottom in book value is about $15. Stock has held up pretty well, all things considered. It will be interesting to see where it bottoms.

 

[editec]

All I know is this:

The market can stay IRRATIONAL longer than most of us can stay SOLVENT.

Now seriously...who among us, as we watched the price of real estate climbing at rates 5 or 6 times the rate of inflation NOT know that RE was in a bubble?

I'm guessing a lot of people on this board KNEW the market was nuts.

Hell folks, the price of RE been nuts since AT LEAST the early 90s.

But year after year the RE market continued to climb despite all the fundamentals.

Now I do not doubt that many of us saw that, but who among us TIMED it correctly?

And if you DID time the market, what event finally tipped you off that it was time to bail?

 

[KissMy]

All I know is this:

The market can stay IRRATIONAL longer than most of us can stay SOLVENT.

Now seriously...who among us, as we watched the price of real estate climbing at rates 5 or 6 times the rate of inflation NOT know that RE was in a bubble?

I'm guessing a lot of people on this board KNEW the market was nuts.

Hell folks, the price of RE been nuts since AT LEAST the early 90s.

But year after year the RE market continued to climb despite all the fundamentals.

Now I do not doubt that many of us saw that, but who among us TIMED it correctly?

And if you DID time the market, what event finally tipped you off that it was time to bail?

I sold a house in Tampa, Florida at the end of 2004 for 2-1/2 times the price I paid in 1996. I knew there was a huge bubble. It took over a year later for the bubble to pop. Real-estate moves way slower than stocks. For over a year all my friends & family told me I was tin foil hat crazy. I now own 4 houses combined that cost me less than what I sold that one for. The rent checks from those same family members are a nice dividend.

I can tell you right now there is an entitlement bubble. Government spending is now 47% of the economy. This translate into a dollar bubble. Gold is not a bubble but the dollar & government are a bubble.

 

[Ravi]

It looks more likely that the upcoming austerity is figuring into the market performance.

Morgan Stanley cut its estimate for growth in the Group of 10 nations to 1.5 percent this year and next, down from previous forecasts of 1.9 percent in 2011 and 2.4 percent in 2012, today’s report showed.

“A negative feedback loop between weak growth and soggy asset markets now appears to be in the making in Europe and the U.S.,” the analysts said. “This should be aggravated by the prospect of fiscal tightening in the U.S. and Europe.”

Morgan Stanley Cuts Global Growth Forecast With U.S.

 

[KissMy]

It looks more likely that the upcoming austerity is figuring into the market performance.

Morgan Stanley cut its estimate for growth in the Group of 10 nations to 1.5 percent this year and next, down from previous forecasts of 1.9 percent in 2011 and 2.4 percent in 2012, today’s report showed.

“A negative feedback loop between weak growth and soggy asset markets now appears to be in the making in Europe and the U.S.,” the analysts said. “This should be aggravated by the prospect of fiscal tightening in the U.S. and Europe.”

Morgan Stanley Cuts Global Growth Forecast With U.S.

There is not now, nor will there be fiscal tightening in the U.S. We have $115 trillion in unfunded liabilities.

Logic dictates a 3 prong approach to correcting the $115 trillion in unfunded liabilities.

Increase taxes to cover $38.4 trillion.
Print money to cover $38.4 trillion.
Cut expected entitlements by $38.4 trillion.

This still grows spending by $76.8 trillion beyond current levels.

 

[KissMy]

39% of Americans believe the current economic downturn is part of a long-term permanent decline and the economy will never fully recover.

 

[Zander]

The 11% must all be government employees....

 

[Trajan]

I have discussions with a friend on INTC. He wants to buy it here because of the dividend. I trade semis off book value. Divy is 4%, pretty good. However, a bottom in book value is about $15. Stock has held up pretty well, all things considered. It will be interesting to see where it bottoms.

I have followed intel for years, since the early to mid 90's, after their last split in 2000 I think it was, the upside price for buy and hold was gone, the dividend is the only 'profit' you'll see if you are not a day trader, which I am not...its flat, I think it topped at 27 in 07 and dropped back to its early 2000 performance, ranging between 18 and 23 avg....thats that.

Its funny, they have grown to the point where in, their tick tock 2 year windows for new design and pushing its own performance envelope has locked it up at the 85% market share level, they will NOT go beyond that except in fits and starts, they are afraid of the Microsoft image ala monopolistic market share which draws gov. as in EU and US law suits etc...they have had their share of those to, the EU whacked them for rebating etc.....stupid.

Despite being an extremely well run co., money in the bank, pretty much flawless performance and execution to plan, they won't ever see price growth, they have tried buy backs, etc.....they are stuck.

 

[iamwhatiseem]

I don't like diving in and out, which is why I didn't buy last week...and still not now.
I did freaking amazing in 2009...I want a repeat..c'mon market...let's crashhhhhhh...
I am hoping for 4 figures.

 

[Trajan]

fine by me.

 

[william the wie]

I suspect the real carnage is at least 60 days away.

 

[Trajan]

I suspect the real carnage is at least 60 days away.

I am thinking you may be thinking thats how long it will take for the euro banks to be exposed for the way over exposed drunks they are?

 

[iamwhatiseem]

You got European exposure
You got toxic assets the banks still have on the books in America
You got U.S. home construction lowest since 1971
You got reeeeaaallly nervous mid west manufacturing that is bleeding right now which are normally earning months...this is critical.

You got the makings of 2008...yes I said it.

 

[BoycottTheday]

If the underground economy had a stock market, whats the odds it would be booming right now?

 

[william the wie]

Possibly 2008 was a dress rehearsal for what is coming next.

 

[KissMy]

OPEC cut production by 1 million barrels per day last quarter. They knew the recession was coming. World oil production is down by that same 1 million barrels per day last quarter. We are going to have at least 1 flat or negative quarter. OPEC is on top of oil regulation this time so oil prices will not crash to $33 unlike the last recession. There is also a huge difference in WTI vs Brent oil prices. Our imported oil is costing us $107 vs our news headline price of $82.

 

[Toro]

Oil touched below $80 and rallied. Europe is rallying off the lows this morning on what appears to be technical buying. This has caused a a retreat off the highs in precious metals.

 

[editec]

so how does this bode for privatizing SS?

Social Security is Doomed... the Boom Generation will Expose it for what it was Warned to be way back in the Day...

If SSI is doomed?

So too is the rest of the economy.

One can only Hope that all of the Drugs and bad shit they did will Knock them off Sooner rather than Later...

It's really our only Hope.



peace...

Keep hoping, Lad.