The Serious Stock Market Crash Thread

[Paulie]

There will not be a second stimulus. It will never pass the House. Period. Obama knows it, but he will still propose one. Somewhere in the neighborhood of $1.6Trillion - he just wants to get some mileage out of saying "republicans are holding back the economy". Fortunately that tactic won't work. Americans are seeing through his cheap rhetoric and realizing that electing a dilettante with no experience was a bad idea. Once he is gone we should see a strong wave of optimism from the business community. Until then, we are going to muddle through.....

Republicans are holding back the economy. You don't cut spending when the economy is teetering on the brink.

That bit of Keynesian wisdom is great if you are following a Keynesian economic plan: running surpluses in good times, and deficit spending in bad times. The problem is we have a huge national debt. We Americans don't run "surpluses" except in our caloric intake. We spend, spend, spend and spend some more!! So Keynes' bromides for economic recovery are ineffective.

We have no other choice except to take our medicine and cut spending. Cut it drastically and deal with the pain all at once. Do that and in 1 year this economy will bounce back with a vengeance.

Nooooooope, the RICH will just swoop in and grab up all that was lost by those who were disadvantaged by the spending cuts. Why do you hate non-rich people?

 

[Zander]

Republicans are holding back the economy. You don't cut spending when the economy is teetering on the brink.

That bit of Keynesian wisdom is great if you are following a Keynesian economic plan: running surpluses in good times, and deficit spending in bad times. The problem is we have a huge national debt. We Americans don't run "surpluses" except in our caloric intake. We spend, spend, spend and spend some more!! So Keynes' bromides for economic recovery are ineffective.

We have no other choice except to take our medicine and cut spending. Cut it drastically and deal with the pain all at once. Do that and in 1 year this economy will bounce back with a vengeance.

Nooooooope, the RICH will just swoop in and grab up all that was lost by those who were disadvantaged by the spending cuts. Why do you hate non-rich people?

Because they are stupid?

 

[william the wie]

Disagree with you on timing Zander with the moronic rewriting of bankruptcy laws by congress over the past 30 years what you are saying is no longer possible. Under the current federal bankruptcy code de facto peonage has been created. Except for automatic inheritance of debt our current laws are examples of created debt slavery to prevent deleveraging. You and I may not owe our souls to the company store but DC sure does.

 

[KissMy]

I have made a list of high quality, high dividend paying companies too, i.e. PG. But I'm going to wait a bit. I want to buy them when they are stupid cheap. They're just cheap now. If you buy those companies and hold them for 20 years, they will generate returns of 10%-12% a year. However, over the next 20 months, they could generate -40%. Many high quality companies traded at 6x-7x earnings with 6%-8% dividend yields at the bottom in the 70s. These types of valuations occur at generational bottoms. We may get one of those over the next 5 years.

well we both know that there is no guarantee that they will get that low, I don't see JJ or PG dropping back another 10-15%....of course I could be wrong and I will have to make up that ground....I went to each of their sites, and downloaded their historical performance, I boxed out their performance vs. the last 2 downturns, I think they have another 5% tops, against that history to go, then wham its time. ( see attachment)

Also it appears to me, now vs. a decade or 2 ago companies are a lot more facile and quicker on the mark to get to net operating bottom+ leaner quicker= net profit, they shed workers quicker, markets are more expansive/varied, supply chains more responsive....

edit- shit you cannot post excel here, anyway, as I said, I did my homework, I have a 13-17 year window, that will work.

Last year when the news of P&G pampers diapers chemical burning babies came out, P&G hit $39 during the flash crash. If you want cheap stocks you should set your buy limits now & wait for the market to come to you. We are in the age of high speed computer trading so you must always have your buy & sell limit trades on.

 

[Mr.Nick]

There will not be a second stimulus. It will never pass the House. Period. Obama knows it, but he will still propose one. Somewhere in the neighborhood of $1.6Trillion - he just wants to get some mileage out of saying "republicans are holding back the economy". Fortunately that tactic won't work. Americans are seeing through his cheap rhetoric and realizing that electing a dilettante with no experience was a bad idea. Once he is gone we should see a strong wave of optimism from the business community. Until then, we are going to muddle through.....

Republicans are holding back the economy. You don't cut spending when the economy is teetering on the brink.

And in what universe is the government the backbone of the economy?

More like you don't tax the backbone of the economy - private sector workers and businesses..

Government spending retarded this economy because the real backbone of this economy knows who will have to pay for all that spending and it wont be those who are receiving the redistributed wealth that came from their pockets.

Not to mention all the government has done is bailout unions with all that spending.

 

[Mr.Nick]

Disagree with you on timing Zander with the moronic rewriting of bankruptcy laws by congress over the past 30 years what you are saying is no longer possible. Under the current federal bankruptcy code de facto peonage has been created. Except for automatic inheritance of debt our current laws are examples of created debt slavery to prevent deleveraging. You and I may not owe our souls to the company store but DC sure does.

Those who declare bankruptcy commit thievery...

In what universe is it ok to rack up 50k in debt and walk away from it for 10?

That's 40k in goods and services someone/entity had to pay for. Someone is getting fucked and its not the person declaring bankruptcy.

It was that accumulated debt + sub prime loans that created the economic collapse er bankrupted the banks in the first place.

 

[Trajan]

so here it is...to sum up;

JPMorgan Chase ( James Dimon, Obama sppter and adherent of here to fore bullish GDP figures ) has now cleared the decks...


Growth in the current quarter looks only moderately softer than our previous projection, however the risks to our previous projection for 2.5% growth in Q4 are now very clearly to the downside and we are lowering forecasted growth in that quarter to 1.0%. We are also lowering 12Q1 growth to 0.5% from 1.5%.%. In sum, over the next four quarters we don't see growth that is much faster than the growth that took place in the first half of this year.


now the next shoe...

Jackson Hole meeting;


Goldman Sachs turn, ( the here to fore bearish crew)

Zach Pandl: "In light of the downshift in the data this week, we are cutting our second-half growth forecasts further. We now expect GDP growth of 1.0% in Q3 and 1.5% in Q4, both down from 2.0% previously. These changes reduce our forecasts for full-year 2011 GDP growth to 1.5% from 1.7%. Exhibit 1 shows the details."

well, lets plsit the next 2 quarters difference, and even give it a .25% boost to avoid being accused of trashing the admin. etc.

so, 1.25%....really? seriously?

My wife works for a well known fortune 500 co. Her ceo has called a all hands update in 2 weeks ( they don't do these often and in the last 3 years none of them were good news), which has led to the here to fore rumors of another round of layoffs having been proved true. They have had 2 layoffs in the last 2.5 years, 8-10% each time..the timing is always the same; announce it and time it for November/December end of year close. They won't be alone industry wise, here we go again.

 

[BoycottTheday]

Tell ya what, if you calculated inflation like they did in 1978

That would tell ya more than you need to know.

And it wouldnt be pretty.

 

[Toro]

The market is trying to bottom here, though closing at the lows of the day isn't a good way to do it.

Futures are up on speculation of Friday's Bernanke's Jackson Hole speech. Last year, Bernanke telegraphed QE2, igniting a powerful 6 month rally. The market thinks that Bernanke will be market-friendly again this year.

Stocks, Commodities Gain on Fed Speculation - Bloomberg

 

[BoycottTheday]

Giving the banks cheap money to invest in the stock market does me good how?

 

[BoycottTheday]

i guess thats not the type of question Toro likes to answer.

I will, it wont, it dint before.

How much did the fed give the royal bank of scotland again Toro?

Criminals, the lot of them, when we follow the money, jail should be what follow's that.

 

[Toro]

i guess thats not the type of question Toro likes to answer.

I will, it wont, it dint before.

How much did the fed give the royal bank of scotland again Toro?

Criminals, the lot of them, when we follow the money, jail should be what follow's that.

 

[BoycottTheday]

Welcome to ignore Toro.

 

[BoycottTheday]

Much better, i wont waste one second of my time here with propagandists. Just a FYI.

 

[Ravi]

 

[Toro]

Much better, i wont waste one second of my time here with propagandists. Just a FYI.

I have no idea what you are talking about.

 

[BoycottTheday]

Your on it now to Ravi ,

why should i even bother giving idiots the privilege of posting their opinion on my screen?

I dont, do i. welcome to ignore.

 

[Toro]

Oh I get it. BoycottTheDay is Anachronism and his strange Ignore List.

Anyways, back to topic. The market had a good day yesterday and is trying to put in a bottom.

 

[editec]

Toro posts an explanation for why he thinks the market might rally and ya'll blame him for it?


Christ! Give the man a break!

 

[Full-Auto]

Your on it now to Ravi ,

why should i even bother giving idiots the privilege of posting their opinion on my screen?

I dont, do i. welcome to ignore.

You mean to tell us you wish to give up a comedy rich environment? You want to miss the one in a thousand chance of them making a good point?

Not all ideas are bankrupt from a group you generally disagree with.