The Serious Stock Market Crash Thread

[Toro]

Oil looks interesting here.

FTR if we do get a rally, it would probably be best if we back and filled for the next few months, consolidating rather than going straight up.

Sentiment is extremely negative and the market is very oversold.

 

[william the wie]

Oil looks interesting here.

FTR if we do get a rally, it would probably be best if we back and filled for the next few months, consolidating rather than going straight up.

Sentiment is extremely negative and the market is very oversold.

Without at least some back and fill today which has not happened yet I would say we are in a bull trap that will last a month at most. Turnaround Tuesdays that do not turnaround vs. trend are generally bad news. Not an invariant indicator a Tuesday that goes opposite to Monday's reaction to the weekend news is generally an indicator of more solid news assessment.

 

[JWBooth]

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q1ZV4Mx7tw8"]Steely Dan - "Black Friday" - YouTube[/ame]

Opens down this morning...again

 

[Toro]

We are at a point of indecision in the market. However, I am beginning to think that there is a possibility the next move is to the upside.

 

[JWBooth]

So much for the Black Friday thing.....

 

[Toro]

At 6.30pm on Monday, Dow futures are down 233.

 

[william the wie]

At 6.30pm on Monday, Dow futures are down 233.

That's quite possibly the good news. Asia and the EU are taking guidance from the US and there is another session of panic in store for each area. Given exchange rate changes my SWAG is that a morning sell off tomorrow will be followed by an afternoon rise that might go parabolic by week's end. No Guarantees!

However it looks like a crisis of confidence is building in the Euro banking system and the currency pegs in the Far East are breaking. That is not good.

 

[Toro]

At 8pm, Dow futures are down 266 points.

 

[saveliberty]

I went back to cash after three weeks in the market. Made 5.5%. I'm happy. Not sure what to make of the moment. I sits and I waits.

 

[Rocko]

I think we're tremendously oversold....The market should have soared on the EPA deregulation news..September is usually a bad month, but we know interest rates are going to remain low, corporate earnings are solid, and if all else fails Bernanke won't hesitate with QE3...

Oil makes mucho sense, because as fear dissipates demand will naturally come back, and the market is ignoring a historically strong positive correlation between gold and oil.

Tech is also very interesting, because of the enormous down turn..I think we are going to see a lot of consolidation, particularly in cloud computing..

But who knows

 

[saveliberty]

We cartainly are not oversold. We should be at 9800 on the Dow. Lower if we can't cut more spending and reduce the deficit.

 

[Rocko]

We cartainly are not oversold. We should be at 9800 on the Dow. Lower if we can't cut more spending and reduce the deficit.

Certainly is the cardinal sin, when talking the stock market....cutting spending is be the right thing to do, as far as our countries general health, but the stock market doesn't ignore crony capitalism....Reducing the debt is a good thing, but how to do it is tricky...

For the record i'm a supply side guy, and maybe i'm irrationally bullish, but no one knows..I mean we're talking about the stock market.

of course I agree we should cut spending, and slash the debt.

 

[Toro]

We are oversold.

Or at least we were.

The oversold readings a few weeks ago were even higher than during the worst periods of the Financial Crisis.

Technically, things still look weak.

 

[Zander]

If you look at the DOW in terms of "real money", we have been in a bear market since 2000.

I see this market heading much lower.

 

[saveliberty]

We are oversold.

Or at least we were.

The oversold readings a few weeks ago were even higher than during the worst periods of the Financial Crisis.

Technically, things still look weak.

I agree we were oversold back on August 5th. That is when I bought in. As of August 21st, I have been out. I will consider us oversold at 10400 this month and 9800 in Ocotober. My next two buy in timeframes.

 

[jonbonraki]

Just wanted to know how printing the money triggers inflation!!!!!

 

[Toro]

Stocks are almost uninvestable at the moment. I'm sitting almost entirely in cash.

 

[saveliberty]

Agreed. Waiting til 9800 then buying dividend yields. Should be minimal price erosion with big yields.

 

[Trajan]

Stocks are almost uninvestable at the moment. I'm sitting almost entirely in cash.

its a mess.

 

[william the wie]

Well Obama's speech bombed and the Greek debt crisis is likely to go meltdown soon.