The u.s. Economy/October 2014

[bugs]

Please be Honest.. Do you think the Economy has Recovered and is on the Right track? should we all be optimistic?

 

[LoneLaugher]

It has not recovered. It is on the right track. Optimism is essential.

 

[Mac1958]

.

Well, let's run a tally, good and bad.

1. The damage of the Meltdown was significant, both structurally and psychologically, and we knew it would be a while before a full recovery was reached, although some want to pretend that this was just another recession.

2. The global economy has been weak for quite a while and appears to be weakening.

3. The domestic economy has improved significantly over the last three years, once things bottomed out.

4. The current administration appears to have zero (0) understanding of, appreciation for, or interest in the psychology of business (a.k.a. "employers")

5. Significant dangers remain, the biggest being our abject refusal to seriously address the "too big to fail" phenomenon.

6. A foundation for recovery appears to be in place, although it has been and will be retarded due to (4), above. But it's definitely there and improving. On the other hand, there seems to be negative/pessimistic data for every bit of positive data.

7. A large jolt (oil disruption, terror, unforeseen economic catastrophe) could completely fuck things due to (5) above.

All in all, it could have been better, dangers remain, but we appear to be slowly headed in the right direction despite ourselves.

.

 

[Antares]

It has not recovered.
It is NOT on the right track.

It is quite fake right now being artificially upheld by a FED and an Administration pumping 85 Billion dollars a month into it that they are creating from thin air.

It MUST reset and we MUST let it reset before it will ever be "real" again.

 

[nodoginnafight]

Not where we wanna be, but improving .... s ...l...o...w...l....y

 

[g5000]

Please be Honest.. Do you think the Economy has Recovered and is on the Right track? should we all be optimistic?

I do not think the economy is healthy. There is way, way, way too much leveraged debt out there.

Debt is not a bad thing if it is invested in something which is productive, like an income producing asset. But we have too much debt that is unproductive, and it has finally caught up to us. This is not the fault of politicians. It is our own damned fault and the fault of the financial services sector which puts fees above all other considerations.

Unproductive, over-leveraged debt is a huge drag on our economic engine.

We are also victims of our own success. It takes less and less workforce to produce the same manufacturing output. Our incredible ever-increasing efficiency is putting more and more of us out of work. This is why it is critical to train the next generation for the cutting edge jobs and services of tomorrow.

 

[The Rabbi]

Recovery Summer is just around the corner!
Again.

 

[Moonglow]

If you can get the big business boys to reinvest, so far all they are doing is merge and acquisition.

 

[Moonglow]

But Companies are leaving China to return home...

Increasing labour costs in China's factories are pushing some American companies to consider moving their manufacturing base back home to the United States

Increasing labour costs in China s factories are pushing some American companies to consider moving their manufacturing base back home to the United States View photo - Yahoo Finance

 

[Tom Sweetnam]

We're being killed by inflation and leveraged debt. If China or Japan call in their notes, we're fucked. Really, the only economic indicator that hits home with the average American, is buying power. What was your income 6 years ago? What is your income today? Has your income kept up with inflation? Does your dollar today buy as much as your dollar did 6 years ago? There's the real measure of the economy.

 

[g5000]

The velocity of money just isn't there for inflation. We are actually at risk for deflation.

 

[bugs]

The velocity of money just isn't there for inflation. We are actually at risk for deflation.

IMHO this is correct. Believe it or not.

 

[bugs]

But Companies are leaving China to return home...

Increasing labour costs in China's factories are pushing some American companies to consider moving their manufacturing base back home to the United States

Increasing labour costs in China s factories are pushing some American companies to consider moving their manufacturing base back home to the United States View photo - Yahoo Finance

sure they are..

 

[bugs]

It has not recovered.
It is NOT on the right track.

It is quite fake right now being artificially upheld by a FED and an Administration pumping 85 Billion dollars a month into it that they are creating from thin air.

It MUST reset and we MUST let it reset before it will ever be "real" again.

I agree 100%

 

[Moonglow]

But Companies are leaving China to return home...

Increasing labour costs in China's factories are pushing some American companies to consider moving their manufacturing base back home to the United States

Increasing labour costs in China s factories are pushing some American companies to consider moving their manufacturing base back home to the United States View photo - Yahoo Finance

sure they are..

They also can't wait to reopen plants in Juarez, Mexico also...since the violence there is quieter...

 

[g5000]

If Janet Yellen printed a trillion dollars tomorrow, and then everyone buried it in their back yard, that trillion dollars would have zero impact on inflation.

This is basically what has been going on. Money is being printed, but it is being hoarded (buried in the back yard). Even worse, in some cases it is converted into unproductive debt.

If confidence is waning, and more and more money is getting buried in the back yard or put into unproductive debt, then we are at risk of deflation.

The trick is getting that money moving around again, and at the same time having enough financial wetlands at the mouth of the Fed's river of money to absorb a surge of excess liquidity if the velocity of money moves too quickly.

I have serious doubts those wetlands are there.

 

[Tom Sweetnam]

Please be Honest.. Do you think the Economy has Recovered and is on the Right track? should we all be optimistic?

I do not think the economy is healthy. There is way, way, way too much leveraged debt out there.

Debt is not a bad thing if it is invested in something which is productive, like an income producing asset. But we have too much debt that is unproductive, and it has finally caught up to us. This is not the fault of politicians. It is our own damned fault and the fault of the financial services sector which puts fees above all other considerations.

Unproductive, over-leveraged debt is a huge drag on our economic engine.

We are also victims of our own success. It takes less and less workforce to produce the same manufacturing output. Our incredible ever-increasing efficiency is putting more and more of us out of work. This is why it is critical to train the next generation for the cutting edge jobs and services of tomorrow.

Agree 100%. Anthony Bordain was in Shanghai a few weeks ago. He was having dinner with some Chinese billionaire sage, a highly respected academic as well. He said one of the biggest problems China and the rest of the world are going to have by 2040, when ten billion people walk the earth, is finding something for them to do. Everything we'll need will be produced by a shrinking demographic and a lot of machines and robots. We need to find something for everybody to do.

 

[francoHFW]

We're now getting over 250k new jobs a month as were needed for full recovery. It's amazing what happens when Pubs cut with the phony crises and total disfunction. If they would allow some investment, there are millions of tech jobs going begging and 30 years of fading infrastructure to be worked on. There will be plenty of jobs, especially when voodoo tax rates and policies are changed so the nonrich have money to spend....

 

[bugs]

Please be Honest.. Do you think the Economy has Recovered and is on the Right track? should we all be optimistic?

I do not think the economy is healthy. There is way, way, way too much leveraged debt out there.

We need to find something for everybody to do.

This for SURE! it's Already a HUGE problem here in Michigan.. without Welfare a LOT of folks would be Hungry!!!

 

[francoHFW]

It would help if Foxbots etc ever got any good news lol...