Luddly Neddite
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- Sep 14, 2011
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Landmark Report Warns Time Is Running Out To Save U.S. From Climate Catastrophe | ThinkProgress
Read the rest at the link.
The National Climate Assessment is the definitive statement of current and future impacts of carbon pollution on the United States. And the picture it paints is stark: Inaction will devastate much of the arable land of the nations breadbasket and ruin a livable climate for most Americans.
Americans face choices explains the Congressionally-mandated report by 300 leading climate scientists and experts, which was reviewed by the National Academy of Sciences. Were already seeing serious climate impacts such as more extreme heat waves, droughts, and deluges and additional impacts are now unavoidable. But just how bad future climate change is will still largely be determined by choices society makes about emissions.
Lets look at some of our choices:
Note that this figure is conservative the A2 scenario (850 parts per million of CO2 in the air) is not as bad as the business-as-usual scenario the recent U.N. climate report used. In short, if we do nothing things could well be even worse.
Even so, the heat waves in the do-nothing case are unimaginably brutal. In the A2 scenario, across most of the United States, the hottest days those that occur only once in 20 years will be about 10°F to 15°F hotter by late in the century. So those rare 105°F days will be 115° to 120°F days.
One of the most dangerous consequences of that staggering rise in heat is a drop in soil moisture basically precipitation minus evaporation a key indicator of drought. Places that dont see any drop in precipitation will still see a drop in soil moisture when it is hotter because of the evaporation, the drying out of the soil in the hot sun. Even worse is that much of the Southwest is projected to see less precipitation. Combine the two, and here is another choice for America:
Which scenario should we choose? Hint: The Dust Bowl was a sustained decrease in soil moisture of only about 15%. In the A2 scenario (which, as noted, isnt the worst case), some parts of the Southwest are, on average, permanently in a Dust Bowl. Large parts of the Southwest AND Great Plains are so close to the edge that in years with slightly less precipitation and/or slightly more heat, they will routinely be in a Dust Bowl.
The choice should be easy, given that other research paints the same grim picture not just for the Southwest and Great Plains but for multiple regions around the globe. And we know that if we do Dust-Bowlify a third of the planets land, it will be irreversible for 1000 years.
Read the rest at the link.