berg80
Diamond Member
- Oct 28, 2017
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A federal judge granted former President Donald Trump a major legal victory on Monday by dismissing the entire criminal case over Trump’s handling of classified documents. Now, the odds are vanishingly slim that the prosecution will go to a jury before Election Day.
Could this prosecution have shifted public opinion—and by extension, will the judge’s dismissal of the case matter for November’s election? After Trump was found guilty of 34 criminal counts this May, commentary has proliferated about how Trump’s prosecutions may move public opinion, whether by reducing support for Trump or galvanizing Republican demands for retribution. Yet data-driven, academic research has been relatively scarce.
Furthermore, while recent commentary has focused on Trump’s conviction in New York for hush money payments, experts widely view the federal charges against Trump—involving his alleged attempt to overturn the 2020 election and retention of classified national security documents—as more serious. Could those federal prosecutions change voters’ minds, or would Trump’s anti-prosecution rhetoric only increase support for the former president and for retribution?
To answer that question, Columbia political scientist Daniel Markovits and I surveyed 3,000 Republicans and independents. Our survey was conducted online with a nationwide sample from October to December 2023 and focused on the classified documents case—the criminal prosecution that surveys show is most credible to Republicans. Our research also included an experiment: To test whether pro- or anti-prosecution rhetoric is more persuasive to voters, survey respondents were randomly chosen to listen to messaging from Trump’s federal prosecutor, the special counsel Jack Smith, or from Trump himself.
Our research shows that messaging from Trump’s prosecutor bolstered support for the prosecution and for democratic norms and also had a limited effect in reducing support for Trump. Contrary to widespread concerns that Trump’s rhetoric may generate backlash against the prosecution, we find that Trump’s anti-prosecution messaging did not increase support for Trump, polarization, or demand for retribution.
www.lawfaremedia.org
The title of the article could as easily have been..........
Trump’s Classified Documents Case Moves Public Opinion. That's Why Voters Are Unlikely to Hear It.
After his loses in the hush money, tax evasion, and defamation cases Don wants no part of the inside of a courtroom. No, sorry, not because "the system is rigged against me!" Because the evidence of his guilt is overwhelming. The docs case probably being the most clear cut in terms of the prosecution's ability to prove the crime he's charged with. Making his judge's ruling such a disaster for democracy and the pursuit of justice.
Could this prosecution have shifted public opinion—and by extension, will the judge’s dismissal of the case matter for November’s election? After Trump was found guilty of 34 criminal counts this May, commentary has proliferated about how Trump’s prosecutions may move public opinion, whether by reducing support for Trump or galvanizing Republican demands for retribution. Yet data-driven, academic research has been relatively scarce.
Furthermore, while recent commentary has focused on Trump’s conviction in New York for hush money payments, experts widely view the federal charges against Trump—involving his alleged attempt to overturn the 2020 election and retention of classified national security documents—as more serious. Could those federal prosecutions change voters’ minds, or would Trump’s anti-prosecution rhetoric only increase support for the former president and for retribution?
To answer that question, Columbia political scientist Daniel Markovits and I surveyed 3,000 Republicans and independents. Our survey was conducted online with a nationwide sample from October to December 2023 and focused on the classified documents case—the criminal prosecution that surveys show is most credible to Republicans. Our research also included an experiment: To test whether pro- or anti-prosecution rhetoric is more persuasive to voters, survey respondents were randomly chosen to listen to messaging from Trump’s federal prosecutor, the special counsel Jack Smith, or from Trump himself.
Our research shows that messaging from Trump’s prosecutor bolstered support for the prosecution and for democratic norms and also had a limited effect in reducing support for Trump. Contrary to widespread concerns that Trump’s rhetoric may generate backlash against the prosecution, we find that Trump’s anti-prosecution messaging did not increase support for Trump, polarization, or demand for retribution.
Trump’s Classified Documents Case Moves Public Opinion. Now Voters Are Unlikely to Hear It.
Republicans and independents who heard from Trump’s federal prosecutor became more supportive of the prosecution. Trump’s anti-prosecution rhetoric, by contrast, failed to increase support for the former president or for retribution.
www.lawfaremedia.org
The title of the article could as easily have been..........
Trump’s Classified Documents Case Moves Public Opinion. That's Why Voters Are Unlikely to Hear It.
After his loses in the hush money, tax evasion, and defamation cases Don wants no part of the inside of a courtroom. No, sorry, not because "the system is rigged against me!" Because the evidence of his guilt is overwhelming. The docs case probably being the most clear cut in terms of the prosecution's ability to prove the crime he's charged with. Making his judge's ruling such a disaster for democracy and the pursuit of justice.
