Well, from oldstyle's link, what the CBO did was assume a certain amount of increase in employment based on measured increase in GDP, and accounting for the expected lag in employment growth. It's not horrible, but it's not necessarily a good representation of what really happened. But there is no good representation.Let's be clear...that article is only talking about jobs created attributable to the ARRA. Jobs created, by itself, is trivial and done every month...it's the number of jobs in time period t minus the number of jobs in time period t-1.The methodology used by Obama's minions is given in the following. Note that there ISN'T a formula to determine jobs created! It's all about jobs saved! Why? Because they can set that number at anything they want and there is no way to prove or disprove it. It's nothing but smoke and mirrors to hide how few jobs were created. They know it...I know it...anyone with a basic economics background knows it...but YOU don't have a clue!
https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/Estimate-of-Job-Creation.pdf
Estimating the impact of specific legislation is a different kind of flying altogether. But that doesn't make it smoke and mirrors or dishonest. Nor does it make it correct. The accuracy depends on the validity of the assumptions.
Trying to prove that jobs saved is invalid seems to be oldstyles thing. Assuming that no jobs are saved by stimulus efforts seems a bit dangerous. Seems that is always a major wanted result of stimulus.
The formulas I have seen for jobs saved get into ue rates over time periods along with populations of workers. Simple enough, really. But to me, it is more useful to look at a simple metric, that being the ue rate, over time. And a good dose of economic history. Mostly whether the ue went up without stimulus, and where it went after stimulus was applied.
What I also am convinced of is that it is really important to look at the multipliers for the different stimulus components. The multiplier is quite different, for instance, for tax reductions, particularly to the relatively wealthy, than it is for infrastructure spending.
thanks, by the way, for your input.
So the estimate is okay, and a rough guide, but shouldn't be taken as gospel.
Is the estimate "okay" if it's made in the midst of what was being described as a "jobless recovery", Pinqy? Or is it assuming the same results from other recession recoveries would apply to this recovery? GDP was obviously going to increase because of massive spending by Government but did that spending really result in job creation? The answer to that was no for a variety of reasons.