We overreacted

[Jitss617]

In a "bad year" for the flu, between 50,000 and 100,000 Americans die from the virus. I'm willing to bet that by the end of this year, roughly the same number of people will have died from this virus.

And I'm also willing to bet that there's zero difference in either the total per capita number who become infected and the mortality rate between our country (which ordered a shutdown) and Sweden's, which has refused to order anyone to shut down their business or stay in their homes.

If you accept that the virus had been circulating in our population for months by the time the lock down orders arrived (which is certainly the case) and if you know it's highly contagious, then ordering everyone into their homes in mid-March was closing the barn door when the horses were already long gone.

What does work to control the spread of a novel virus? Herd immunity. Humans have immune systems. They work great, especially in younger people. We can handle viruses.

What we should do is tell older and sicker people to put on a mask. Wear rubber gloves. Avoid crowds at all costs. Avoid hospitals. Stay home whenever you can.

We should have told everyone else: Go about your lives. Yes, we should also add that some of you – probably about 20% – are going to get this novel coronavirus this year. (Normally about 9% of the population gets the flu every year... so your chances of catching COVID-19 this year are about double what you'd normally face with the regular flu.)

And if you get it, it's probably going to suck. But the younger you are and the healthier you are, the more likely it is that you won't have any symptoms at all.

So, let's not cancel school. Let's let the kids go and get exposed to this virus when they are young, when they can handle it, and when they can quickly develop immunity.

That's the best way to build the herd immunity we need – allow everyone who can manage the virus to get exposed. As quickly as possible. After all, the sooner the herd immunity we need develops naturally, the safer we will all be. Deaths are now projected at 60k?

Top coronavirus model lowers US death estimates in updated projection - Washington Examiner

Researchers lowered their estimated U.S. death toll from the coronavirus pandemic in a recent update of a key model.The University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation lowered its predicted death toll by more than 8,000 on Friday, only four days after its previous...

www.washingtonexaminer.com

There is on (at least) problem. Immunity. Imunity is not such a simple thing and varies by virus. I know just from the vaccines I have to give my dogs. Lepto typically lasts no more than a year, sometimes only 6 months. Others like distemper are still show acceptable levels in titres at three years.

With corona, we are finding a number of “cured” people suddenly showing positive again and we don’t yet know why. Are they getting reinfected? Does the virus lie dormant only to re-emerge? Unknown.

It is the unknown combined with the fact that has been shown to leave long lasting possibly permanent lung damage in some people that has me cautious.

I am 60...at the edge of the group considered higher risk. I live with my 83 yr old mother in law and my husband, who has severe chf and copd. Both very high risk. Reopening everything, in a Darwinian fashion would put us all at risk and I couldn’t afford to not go out and work(and my job involves daily contact with students).

I don’t have answers....just points to consider.

Please tell me you stay away from kids with your views , far more harmful then this virus

 

[SweetSue92]

It is more deadly than the flu for some people; about as deadly for others; and significantly LESS deadly for others. That's not what we were sold though, was it?

I'd like to respond, but I'm not entirely sure what you mean when you say it's significantly less deadly for some. Please elaborate.

Children and teens. For example, H1N1 significantly hit children and younger people. And of course note for H1N1 we did not shut down much of anything.

I really think we're going to look back at this as one huge bungle. But we're about to massively unbungle huge parts of society starting this week. Thank God.

Additionally, CDC estimated that 151,700-575,400 people worldwide died from (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection during the first year the virus circulated.** Globally, 80 percent of (H1N1)pdm09 virus-related deaths were estimated to have occurred in people younger than 65 years of age. This differs greatly from typical seasonal influenza epidemics, during which about 70 percent to 90 percent of deaths are estimated to occur in people 65 years and older.

2009 H1N1 Pandemic

A summary of key events of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic and the CDC's response activities between April 2009 and April 2010.

www.cdc.gov

Oh gotcha. Yea, the numbers show that coronavirus is not very dangerous for the younger ones.

I don't know if that's what was "sold" to you. Did they say otherwise?

Sick people in the streets, hospitals way over capacity, not enough ventilators, all of it.

Didn't happen. Even in my "hot zone". Didn't happen. None of it.

Do you feel this turning now? Cause I do. Last week, with the protest in MI. It turned. People are still going to be careful and some people are still afraid. But more and more people are going to say they've had enough and they're not willing to sacrifice their livelihoods for this virus when all the facts and evidence say it's not nearly as deadly for MOST people as they sold us. And these people are right, btw.

That said, every single death has always been an individual tragedy, and nothing will change that. But we can't cripple society for it.

"It is more deadly than the flu for some people; about as deadly for others; and significantly LESS deadly for others. That's not what we were sold though, was it?"

You didn't answer my question. Did they "sell" you the idea that all ages were going to be affected equally by this? Because I don't recall hearing that.

The state of Michigan has already surpassed their average annual flu death count in just the last two weeks. Granted not all parts of Michigan are equally affected by this, but that state is one of the hardest hit ones and I thought it was a bit ridiculous to protest there.

There are basically three counties massively affected in MI. The rest are not, and yet are losing their livelihoods for it.

This is happening all over the nation. The Democrats, I believe, will pay for it.

 

[Jitss617]

We need a cure or this country is fcuked

 

[XponentialChaos]

It is more deadly than the flu for some people; about as deadly for others; and significantly LESS deadly for others. That's not what we were sold though, was it?

I'd like to respond, but I'm not entirely sure what you mean when you say it's significantly less deadly for some. Please elaborate.

Children and teens. For example, H1N1 significantly hit children and younger people. And of course note for H1N1 we did not shut down much of anything.

I really think we're going to look back at this as one huge bungle. But we're about to massively unbungle huge parts of society starting this week. Thank God.

Additionally, CDC estimated that 151,700-575,400 people worldwide died from (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection during the first year the virus circulated.** Globally, 80 percent of (H1N1)pdm09 virus-related deaths were estimated to have occurred in people younger than 65 years of age. This differs greatly from typical seasonal influenza epidemics, during which about 70 percent to 90 percent of deaths are estimated to occur in people 65 years and older.

2009 H1N1 Pandemic

A summary of key events of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic and the CDC's response activities between April 2009 and April 2010.

www.cdc.gov

Oh gotcha. Yea, the numbers show that coronavirus is not very dangerous for the younger ones.

I don't know if that's what was "sold" to you. Did they say otherwise?

Sick people in the streets, hospitals way over capacity, not enough ventilators, all of it.

Didn't happen. Even in my "hot zone". Didn't happen. None of it.

Do you feel this turning now? Cause I do. Last week, with the protest in MI. It turned. People are still going to be careful and some people are still afraid. But more and more people are going to say they've had enough and they're not willing to sacrifice their livelihoods for this virus when all the facts and evidence say it's not nearly as deadly for MOST people as they sold us. And these people are right, btw.

That said, every single death has always been an individual tragedy, and nothing will change that. But we can't cripple society for it.

"It is more deadly than the flu for some people; about as deadly for others; and significantly LESS deadly for others. That's not what we were sold though, was it?"

You didn't answer my question. Did they "sell" you the idea that all ages were going to be affected equally by this? Because I don't recall hearing that.

The state of Michigan has already surpassed their average annual flu death count in just the last two weeks. Granted not all parts of Michigan are equally affected by this, but that state is one of the hardest hit ones and I thought it was a bit ridiculous to protest there.

There are basically three counties massively affected in MI. The rest are not, and yet are losing their livelihoods for it.

This is happening all over the nation. The Democrats, I believe, will pay for it.

So they didn't sell you that at all. Did they?

It's hard to say how this will sway voters in the next election.

 

[SweetSue92]

It is more deadly than the flu for some people; about as deadly for others; and significantly LESS deadly for others. That's not what we were sold though, was it?

I'd like to respond, but I'm not entirely sure what you mean when you say it's significantly less deadly for some. Please elaborate.

Children and teens. For example, H1N1 significantly hit children and younger people. And of course note for H1N1 we did not shut down much of anything.

I really think we're going to look back at this as one huge bungle. But we're about to massively unbungle huge parts of society starting this week. Thank God.

Additionally, CDC estimated that 151,700-575,400 people worldwide died from (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection during the first year the virus circulated.** Globally, 80 percent of (H1N1)pdm09 virus-related deaths were estimated to have occurred in people younger than 65 years of age. This differs greatly from typical seasonal influenza epidemics, during which about 70 percent to 90 percent of deaths are estimated to occur in people 65 years and older.

2009 H1N1 Pandemic

A summary of key events of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic and the CDC's response activities between April 2009 and April 2010.

www.cdc.gov

Oh gotcha. Yea, the numbers show that coronavirus is not very dangerous for the younger ones.

I don't know if that's what was "sold" to you. Did they say otherwise?

Sick people in the streets, hospitals way over capacity, not enough ventilators, all of it.

Didn't happen. Even in my "hot zone". Didn't happen. None of it.

Do you feel this turning now? Cause I do. Last week, with the protest in MI. It turned. People are still going to be careful and some people are still afraid. But more and more people are going to say they've had enough and they're not willing to sacrifice their livelihoods for this virus when all the facts and evidence say it's not nearly as deadly for MOST people as they sold us. And these people are right, btw.

That said, every single death has always been an individual tragedy, and nothing will change that. But we can't cripple society for it.

"It is more deadly than the flu for some people; about as deadly for others; and significantly LESS deadly for others. That's not what we were sold though, was it?"

You didn't answer my question. Did they "sell" you the idea that all ages were going to be affected equally by this? Because I don't recall hearing that.

The state of Michigan has already surpassed their average annual flu death count in just the last two weeks. Granted not all parts of Michigan are equally affected by this, but that state is one of the hardest hit ones and I thought it was a bit ridiculous to protest there.

There are basically three counties massively affected in MI. The rest are not, and yet are losing their livelihoods for it.

This is happening all over the nation. The Democrats, I believe, will pay for it.

So they didn't sell you that at all. Did they?

It's hard to say how this will sway voters in the next election.

They didn't sell that it would be significantly deadly for say, children, no. But they DID sell bodies stacked up in hospital corridors and adults of all ages getting significantly sick. Which didn't happen really outside of NYC. What is ACTUALLY happening nationwide is empty hospitals, canceled surgeries, and laid off health care workers.

The media is only going to be able to agitate for this for so long before a lot of truth comes out. And people are going to hate it. A lot.

 

[XponentialChaos]

It is more deadly than the flu for some people; about as deadly for others; and significantly LESS deadly for others. That's not what we were sold though, was it?

I'd like to respond, but I'm not entirely sure what you mean when you say it's significantly less deadly for some. Please elaborate.

Children and teens. For example, H1N1 significantly hit children and younger people. And of course note for H1N1 we did not shut down much of anything.

I really think we're going to look back at this as one huge bungle. But we're about to massively unbungle huge parts of society starting this week. Thank God.

Additionally, CDC estimated that 151,700-575,400 people worldwide died from (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection during the first year the virus circulated.** Globally, 80 percent of (H1N1)pdm09 virus-related deaths were estimated to have occurred in people younger than 65 years of age. This differs greatly from typical seasonal influenza epidemics, during which about 70 percent to 90 percent of deaths are estimated to occur in people 65 years and older.

2009 H1N1 Pandemic

A summary of key events of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic and the CDC's response activities between April 2009 and April 2010.

www.cdc.gov

Oh gotcha. Yea, the numbers show that coronavirus is not very dangerous for the younger ones.

I don't know if that's what was "sold" to you. Did they say otherwise?

Sick people in the streets, hospitals way over capacity, not enough ventilators, all of it.

Didn't happen. Even in my "hot zone". Didn't happen. None of it.

Do you feel this turning now? Cause I do. Last week, with the protest in MI. It turned. People are still going to be careful and some people are still afraid. But more and more people are going to say they've had enough and they're not willing to sacrifice their livelihoods for this virus when all the facts and evidence say it's not nearly as deadly for MOST people as they sold us. And these people are right, btw.

That said, every single death has always been an individual tragedy, and nothing will change that. But we can't cripple society for it.

"It is more deadly than the flu for some people; about as deadly for others; and significantly LESS deadly for others. That's not what we were sold though, was it?"

You didn't answer my question. Did they "sell" you the idea that all ages were going to be affected equally by this? Because I don't recall hearing that.

The state of Michigan has already surpassed their average annual flu death count in just the last two weeks. Granted not all parts of Michigan are equally affected by this, but that state is one of the hardest hit ones and I thought it was a bit ridiculous to protest there.

There are basically three counties massively affected in MI. The rest are not, and yet are losing their livelihoods for it.

This is happening all over the nation. The Democrats, I believe, will pay for it.

So they didn't sell you that at all. Did they?

It's hard to say how this will sway voters in the next election.

They didn't sell that it would be significantly deadly for say, children, no. But they DID sell bodies stacked up in hospital corridors and adults of all ages getting significantly sick. Which didn't happen really outside of NYC. What is ACTUALLY happening nationwide is empty hospitals, canceled surgeries, and laid off health care workers.

The media is only going to be able to agitate for this for so long before a lot of truth comes out. And people are going to hate it. A lot.

"It is more deadly than the flu for some people; about as deadly for others; and significantly LESS deadly for others. That's not what we were sold though, was it?"

So then this statement of yours was wrong. They never sold that. Ok, thanks for answering.

I think NYC is showing people just how deadly this could have been. Thankfully, much of the country is nowhere close to the level of devastation that they're witnessing. These comparisons to the flu are complete nonsense. Show me the last time the flu wiped out 4,700 New Yorkers in a week.

 

[Missourian]

In a "bad year" for the flu, between 50,000 and 100,000 Americans die from the virus. I'm willing to bet that by the end of this year, roughly the same number of people will have died from this virus.

And I'm also willing to bet that there's zero difference in either the total per capita number who become infected and the mortality rate between our country (which ordered a shutdown) and Sweden's, which has refused to order anyone to shut down their business or stay in their homes.

If you accept that the virus had been circulating in our population for months by the time the lock down orders arrived (which is certainly the case) and if you know it's highly contagious, then ordering everyone into their homes in mid-March was closing the barn door when the horses were already long gone.

What does work to control the spread of a novel virus? Herd immunity. Humans have immune systems. They work great, especially in younger people. We can handle viruses.

What we should do is tell older and sicker people to put on a mask. Wear rubber gloves. Avoid crowds at all costs. Avoid hospitals. Stay home whenever you can.

We should have told everyone else: Go about your lives. Yes, we should also add that some of you – probably about 20% – are going to get this novel coronavirus this year. (Normally about 9% of the population gets the flu every year... so your chances of catching COVID-19 this year are about double what you'd normally face with the regular flu.)

And if you get it, it's probably going to suck. But the younger you are and the healthier you are, the more likely it is that you won't have any symptoms at all.

So, let's not cancel school. Let's let the kids go and get exposed to this virus when they are young, when they can handle it, and when they can quickly develop immunity.

That's the best way to build the herd immunity we need – allow everyone who can manage the virus to get exposed. As quickly as possible. After all, the sooner the herd immunity we need develops naturally, the safer we will all be. Deaths are now projected at 60k?

Top coronavirus model lowers US death estimates in updated projection - Washington Examiner

Researchers lowered their estimated U.S. death toll from the coronavirus pandemic in a recent update of a key model.The University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation lowered its predicted death toll by more than 8,000 on Friday, only four days after its previous...

www.washingtonexaminer.com

You only know you overreacted with hindsight. With the information we had...3-4 percent mortality rate...the right decision was made.

 

[sparky]

the thing is, we're not completely outta the bell curve , nor will biz recover by the election

of course we won't be offered any real choices, as usual

yet those few yammering tools will need to be stumpin' for a plan

because everyone is going to be wanting one

~S~

 

[Coyote]

Herd immunity is happening right now. Went to Fleet Farm today and the store was more packed than Christmas season. So were all the big box stores. Hoards of folks ignoring the stay at home and a small minority wearing masks. Seems folks are gonna go about their lives regardless of our governor.

No way in hell in MN were all these folks out and about all conservative.

We don’t know how long the antibodies last. And 50% of the population would have to be infected for herd immunity to take place. In the meantime that’s a lot of body bags

We have no idea how many are already exposed. It could be far more than 50% already.
There are a lot of body bags for a variety of reasons every year with far higher counts and we don't lose our shit over them. Life is simply dangerous with no guarantees and no government can protect every citizen. This isn't the civilization ending plague, but the "cure" which is only putting off the inevitable sure as hell could be.

Reality is folks left and right are losing patience with the current course of action. The protests developing in two thirds of the states speak to that fact.

The protests are politically funded, not grass roots.

Thousands of Americans backed by rightwing donors gear up for protests

Conservative activists to demand governors lift stay-home orders – and movement has been driven by wealthy conservative groups

www.theguardian.com

 

[Coyote]

I could not agree more, we didn't close down the nation for the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918, and that killed over 600,000 Americans in about 25 weeks time. I think this whole thing stinks, I think that when a desperate political party, and an equally desperate federal apparatus overwhelmingly staffed by devotees of that desperate political party, and which qualifies as virtually a form of shadow government, are both implicated in a series of rolling coup d' tat's, and faux investigations intended to destroy a man they cannot buy off or control, and he is presiding over an economy so white hot they haven't a prayer of running against it in a fair election process, well I think its no coincidence that that economy is suddenly no more! Such is the thing they most wanted, many of them openly said as much, well here we are.....

Were you alive in 1918? News stories I have seen show schools, churches and businesses closed.

Are you even serious? I went to school, apparently you did not, there was never a national shut down due to the Spanish flu pandemic, business as usual with small localized closures, nothing in all of US history compares to what that little Dr Fauci succeeded in getting Trump to sign off on here, why major league baseball played the most notorious world series in baseball history during the Spanish flu pandemic!

If you went to school, they likely covered very little about the Spanish flu other than death toll unless you took specific courses. A hundred years later, we know a lot more about pandemics.

Could “business as usual” have increased tbe death toll?

And, even then, the economic impact was huge.

Lessons learned from the Spanish Flu

What can the Spanish Flu teach us about the COVID-19 pandemic?

A study of the economic impact of the 1918 Spanish Flu in the US shows cities that - when implemented early - extensive measures like social distancing produced no adverse economic effects.

www.weforum.org

• Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as social distancing can have positive effects on the economy, through limiting spikes in infections and avoiding mass casualties.
• A study of the economic impact of the 1918 Spanish Flu in the US has found those cities that implemented early and extensive NPIs suffered no adverse economic effects over the medium term.
• Cities that intervened earlier and more aggressively actually experienced a relative increase in real economic activity after the pandemic subsided.

Coronavirus and Spanish flu: economic lessons to learn from the last truly global pandemic

Policymakers would be wise to pay attention to historical parallels.

theconversation.com

Economic consequences
The immediate economic consequences of 1918 stemmed from the panic surrounding the spread of the flu. Large US cities, including New York and Philadelphia, were essentially temporarily shut down as their populations became bedridden. As in Italy now, businesses were closed, sporting events cancelled and private gatherings – including funerals – banned to stem the spread of the disease.

The economic consequences of the pandemic included labour shortages and wage increases, but also the increased use of social security systems. Economic historians do not agree on a headline figure for lost GDP because the effects of the flu are hard to disentangle from the confounding impact of the first world war.

The long-term consequences proved horrific. A surprisingly high proportion of adult health and cognitive ability is determined before we are even born. Research has shown the flu-born cohort achieved lower educational attainment by adulthood, experienced increased rates of physical disability, enjoyed lower lifetime income and a lower socioeconomic status than those born immediately before and after the flu pandemic.

 

[Coyote]

In a "bad year" for the flu, between 50,000 and 100,000 Americans die from the virus. I'm willing to bet that by the end of this year, roughly the same number of people will have died from this virus.

And I'm also willing to bet that there's zero difference in either the total per capita number who become infected and the mortality rate between our country (which ordered a shutdown) and Sweden's, which has refused to order anyone to shut down their business or stay in their homes.

If you accept that the virus had been circulating in our population for months by the time the lock down orders arrived (which is certainly the case) and if you know it's highly contagious, then ordering everyone into their homes in mid-March was closing the barn door when the horses were already long gone.

What does work to control the spread of a novel virus? Herd immunity. Humans have immune systems. They work great, especially in younger people. We can handle viruses.

What we should do is tell older and sicker people to put on a mask. Wear rubber gloves. Avoid crowds at all costs. Avoid hospitals. Stay home whenever you can.

We should have told everyone else: Go about your lives. Yes, we should also add that some of you – probably about 20% – are going to get this novel coronavirus this year. (Normally about 9% of the population gets the flu every year... so your chances of catching COVID-19 this year are about double what you'd normally face with the regular flu.)

And if you get it, it's probably going to suck. But the younger you are and the healthier you are, the more likely it is that you won't have any symptoms at all.

So, let's not cancel school. Let's let the kids go and get exposed to this virus when they are young, when they can handle it, and when they can quickly develop immunity.

That's the best way to build the herd immunity we need – allow everyone who can manage the virus to get exposed. As quickly as possible. After all, the sooner the herd immunity we need develops naturally, the safer we will all be. Deaths are now projected at 60k?

Top coronavirus model lowers US death estimates in updated projection - Washington Examiner

Researchers lowered their estimated U.S. death toll from the coronavirus pandemic in a recent update of a key model.The University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation lowered its predicted death toll by more than 8,000 on Friday, only four days after its previous...

www.washingtonexaminer.com

I am in agreement.....after we get testing in place.

How much longer before the blob gets testing in place?

Testing is irrelevant. As Fauci said you would have to test someone daily to be certain and that is not feasible and antibody testing is highly flawed.

so the tests aren’t perfect like your blob said they were?

Tests work but you have to do them daily for them to work. 99% of the people will have no to mild symptoms. Herd immunity is the key as well as treatments like Rem and Hydrox

So if you’re found to have Covid-19 today, you have to get tested tomorrow to see if you still have it?

Doubtful.

No. You misunderstand. I could Be tested today and be negative but have it and then tomorrow it could show up. That is the problem. And the next day and the next day. Key is to get it and develop immunity.

...or die.

 

[petro]

Herd immunity is happening right now. Went to Fleet Farm today and the store was more packed than Christmas season. So were all the big box stores. Hoards of folks ignoring the stay at home and a small minority wearing masks. Seems folks are gonna go about their lives regardless of our governor.

No way in hell in MN were all these folks out and about all conservative.

We don’t know how long the antibodies last. And 50% of the population would have to be infected for herd immunity to take place. In the meantime that’s a lot of body bags

We have no idea how many are already exposed. It could be far more than 50% already.
There are a lot of body bags for a variety of reasons every year with far higher counts and we don't lose our shit over them. Life is simply dangerous with no guarantees and no government can protect every citizen. This isn't the civilization ending plague, but the "cure" which is only putting off the inevitable sure as hell could be.

Reality is folks left and right are losing patience with the current course of action. The protests developing in two thirds of the states speak to that fact.

The protests are politically funded, not grass roots.

Thousands of Americans backed by rightwing donors gear up for protests

Conservative activists to demand governors lift stay-home orders – and movement has been driven by wealthy conservative groups

www.theguardian.com

Still doesn't account for the hoards of folks that are out and about ignoring mitigation at the stores such as i witnessed yesterday. Again, no way were all those people at the stores just shopping for essentials and no way were they all conservatives.

 

[Coyote]

I looked up the number of deaths from the flu in New York. I looked at the data from the cdc from 2014 to 2018. On average, there were about 4,700 deaths per year in New York from the flu.

New York had about 4,700 deaths from covid-19 in the last week.

I think it's ridiculous to compare covid-19 to the flu.

Stats of the States - Influenza/Pneumonia Mortality

www.cdc.gov

How about other states? NY is an outlier.

I think most of the North East would be similar. They're getting hit the hardest by this thing and they're located where it's more densely populated. Obviously not all states are getting impacted to the same level though.

Let me look up Louisiana:

Louisiana has averaged about 787 deaths per year from the flu. They've had approximately the same number of deaths from covid-19 in the last 13 days.

The point is: this isn't the flu. Show me the last time the flu wiped out 4,700 New Yorkers in a week. That's how devastating this can be without proper measures.

That there was a horrid, local outbreak in NYC does not mean Nebraska had to shut down

How do you stop people from traveling?

 

[Sun Devil 92]

In a "bad year" for the flu, between 50,000 and 100,000 Americans die from the virus. I'm willing to bet that by the end of this year, roughly the same number of people will have died from this virus.

And I'm also willing to bet that there's zero difference in either the total per capita number who become infected and the mortality rate between our country (which ordered a shutdown) and Sweden's, which has refused to order anyone to shut down their business or stay in their homes.

If you accept that the virus had been circulating in our population for months by the time the lock down orders arrived (which is certainly the case) and if you know it's highly contagious, then ordering everyone into their homes in mid-March was closing the barn door when the horses were already long gone.

What does work to control the spread of a novel virus? Herd immunity. Humans have immune systems. They work great, especially in younger people. We can handle viruses.

What we should do is tell older and sicker people to put on a mask. Wear rubber gloves. Avoid crowds at all costs. Avoid hospitals. Stay home whenever you can.

We should have told everyone else: Go about your lives. Yes, we should also add that some of you – probably about 20% – are going to get this novel coronavirus this year. (Normally about 9% of the population gets the flu every year... so your chances of catching COVID-19 this year are about double what you'd normally face with the regular flu.)

And if you get it, it's probably going to suck. But the younger you are and the healthier you are, the more likely it is that you won't have any symptoms at all.

So, let's not cancel school. Let's let the kids go and get exposed to this virus when they are young, when they can handle it, and when they can quickly develop immunity.

That's the best way to build the herd immunity we need – allow everyone who can manage the virus to get exposed. As quickly as possible. After all, the sooner the herd immunity we need develops naturally, the safer we will all be. Deaths are now projected at 60k?

Top coronavirus model lowers US death estimates in updated projection - Washington Examiner

Researchers lowered their estimated U.S. death toll from the coronavirus pandemic in a recent update of a key model.The University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation lowered its predicted death toll by more than 8,000 on Friday, only four days after its previous...

www.washingtonexaminer.com

I am in agreement.....after we get testing in place.

How much longer before the blob gets testing in place?

Testing is irrelevant. As Fauci said you would have to test someone daily to be certain and that is not feasible and antibody testing is highly flawed.

so the tests aren’t perfect like your blob said they were?

Tests work but you have to do them daily for them to work. 99% of the people will have no to mild symptoms. Herd immunity is the key as well as treatments like Rem and Hydrox

So if you’re found to have Covid-19 today, you have to get tested tomorrow to see if you still have it?

Doubtful.

No. You misunderstand. I could Be tested today and be negative but have it and then tomorrow it could show up. That is the problem. And the next day and the next day. Key is to get it and develop immunity.

...or die.

Which you will do eventually.

One has to wonder how much our dependence on anti-biotics is going to hurt us. Not with respect to this virus, but just in terms of our bodies getting used to the work being done for them.

 

[Coyote]

I looked up the number of deaths from the flu in New York. I looked at the data from the cdc from 2014 to 2018. On average, there were about 4,700 deaths per year in New York from the flu.

New York had about 4,700 deaths from covid-19 in the last week.

I think it's ridiculous to compare covid-19 to the flu.

Stats of the States - Influenza/Pneumonia Mortality

www.cdc.gov

How about other states? NY is an outlier.

I think most of the North East would be similar. They're getting hit the hardest by this thing and they're located where it's more densely populated. Obviously not all states are getting impacted to the same level though.

Let me look up Louisiana:

Louisiana has averaged about 787 deaths per year from the flu. They've had approximately the same number of deaths from covid-19 in the last 13 days.

The point is: this isn't the flu. Show me the last time the flu wiped out 4,700 New Yorkers in a week. That's how devastating this can be without proper measures.

That there was a horrid, local outbreak in NYC does not mean Nebraska had to shut down

Maybe, maybe not. That's not up to me.

New York state has a population density 17 times the density of Nebraska. New York City is far more dense than that. Obviously it's going to be more dangerous in the more densely populated cities.

While the amount of risk that people are willing to deal with is not up to me, my point is that this thing is FAR more dangerous than the flu.

So here is how we know this thing was a huge bungle and your party will pay.

Just a few days ago you were screeching at everyone to stay inside, virus this, virus that

Look at the swift backpedaling here.

What party? People keep trying to make this a partisan fight but you have governors on both sides holding the line on reopening so what are you screeching about?

This isn’t a partisan issue ecxceot when peop,e like you try to make it one.

 

[Sun Devil 92]

Herd immunity is happening right now. Went to Fleet Farm today and the store was more packed than Christmas season. So were all the big box stores. Hoards of folks ignoring the stay at home and a small minority wearing masks. Seems folks are gonna go about their lives regardless of our governor.

No way in hell in MN were all these folks out and about all conservative.

We don’t know how long the antibodies last. And 50% of the population would have to be infected for herd immunity to take place. In the meantime that’s a lot of body bags

We have no idea how many are already exposed. It could be far more than 50% already.
There are a lot of body bags for a variety of reasons every year with far higher counts and we don't lose our shit over them. Life is simply dangerous with no guarantees and no government can protect every citizen. This isn't the civilization ending plague, but the "cure" which is only putting off the inevitable sure as hell could be.

Reality is folks left and right are losing patience with the current course of action. The protests developing in two thirds of the states speak to that fact.

The protests are politically funded, not grass roots.

Thousands of Americans backed by rightwing donors gear up for protests

Conservative activists to demand governors lift stay-home orders – and movement has been driven by wealthy conservative groups

www.theguardian.com

Still doesn't account for the hoards of folks that are out and about ignoring mitigation at the stores such as i witnessed yesterday. Again, no way were all those people at the stores just shopping for essentials and no way were they all conservatives.

Does not matter.....

Most places never really locked down.

I have seen the same things.....

With some people doing stupid shit like taking infants into crowded stores.

 

[Coyote]

In a "bad year" for the flu, between 50,000 and 100,000 Americans die from the virus. I'm willing to bet that by the end of this year, roughly the same number of people will have died from this virus.

And I'm also willing to bet that there's zero difference in either the total per capita number who become infected and the mortality rate between our country (which ordered a shutdown) and Sweden's, which has refused to order anyone to shut down their business or stay in their homes.

If you accept that the virus had been circulating in our population for months by the time the lock down orders arrived (which is certainly the case) and if you know it's highly contagious, then ordering everyone into their homes in mid-March was closing the barn door when the horses were already long gone.

What does work to control the spread of a novel virus? Herd immunity. Humans have immune systems. They work great, especially in younger people. We can handle viruses.

What we should do is tell older and sicker people to put on a mask. Wear rubber gloves. Avoid crowds at all costs. Avoid hospitals. Stay home whenever you can.

We should have told everyone else: Go about your lives. Yes, we should also add that some of you – probably about 20% – are going to get this novel coronavirus this year. (Normally about 9% of the population gets the flu every year... so your chances of catching COVID-19 this year are about double what you'd normally face with the regular flu.)

And if you get it, it's probably going to suck. But the younger you are and the healthier you are, the more likely it is that you won't have any symptoms at all.

So, let's not cancel school. Let's let the kids go and get exposed to this virus when they are young, when they can handle it, and when they can quickly develop immunity.

That's the best way to build the herd immunity we need – allow everyone who can manage the virus to get exposed. As quickly as possible. After all, the sooner the herd immunity we need develops naturally, the safer we will all be. Deaths are now projected at 60k?

Top coronavirus model lowers US death estimates in updated projection - Washington Examiner

Researchers lowered their estimated U.S. death toll from the coronavirus pandemic in a recent update of a key model.The University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation lowered its predicted death toll by more than 8,000 on Friday, only four days after its previous...

www.washingtonexaminer.com

I am in agreement.....after we get testing in place.

How much longer before the blob gets testing in place?

Testing is irrelevant. As Fauci said you would have to test someone daily to be certain and that is not feasible and antibody testing is highly flawed.

so the tests aren’t perfect like your blob said they were?

Tests work but you have to do them daily for them to work. 99% of the people will have no to mild symptoms. Herd immunity is the key as well as treatments like Rem and Hydrox

So if you’re found to have Covid-19 today, you have to get tested tomorrow to see if you still have it?

Doubtful.

No. You misunderstand. I could Be tested today and be negative but have it and then tomorrow it could show up. That is the problem. And the next day and the next day. Key is to get it and develop immunity.

...or die.

Which you will do eventually.

One has to wonder how much our dependence on anti-biotics is going to hurt us. Not with respect to this virus, but just in terms of our bodies getting used to the work being done for them.

Yup. Not to mention an overly sanitary lifestyle.

 

[candycorn]

It is more deadly than the flu for some people; about as deadly for others; and significantly LESS deadly for others. That's not what we were sold though, was it?

I'd like to respond, but I'm not entirely sure what you mean when you say it's significantly less deadly for some. Please elaborate.

Children and teens. For example, H1N1 significantly hit children and younger people. And of course note for H1N1 we did not shut down much of anything.

I really think we're going to look back at this as one huge bungle. But we're about to massively unbungle huge parts of society starting this week. Thank God.

Additionally, CDC estimated that 151,700-575,400 people worldwide died from (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection during the first year the virus circulated.** Globally, 80 percent of (H1N1)pdm09 virus-related deaths were estimated to have occurred in people younger than 65 years of age. This differs greatly from typical seasonal influenza epidemics, during which about 70 percent to 90 percent of deaths are estimated to occur in people 65 years and older.

2009 H1N1 Pandemic

A summary of key events of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic and the CDC's response activities between April 2009 and April 2010.

www.cdc.gov

Oh gotcha. Yea, the numbers show that coronavirus is not very dangerous for the younger ones.

I don't know if that's what was "sold" to you. Did they say otherwise?

Sick people in the streets, hospitals way over capacity, not enough ventilators, all of it.

Didn't happen. Even in my "hot zone". Didn't happen. None of it.

Do you feel this turning now? Cause I do. Last week, with the protest in MI. It turned. People are still going to be careful and some people are still afraid. But more and more people are going to say they've had enough and they're not willing to sacrifice their livelihoods for this virus when all the facts and evidence say it's not nearly as deadly for MOST people as they sold us. And these people are right, btw.

That said, every single death has always been an individual tragedy, and nothing will change that. But we can't cripple society for it.

"It is more deadly than the flu for some people; about as deadly for others; and significantly LESS deadly for others. That's not what we were sold though, was it?"

You didn't answer my question. Did they "sell" you the idea that all ages were going to be affected equally by this? Because I don't recall hearing that.

The state of Michigan has already surpassed their average annual flu death count in just the last two weeks. Granted not all parts of Michigan are equally affected by this, but that state is one of the hardest hit ones and I thought it was a bit ridiculous to protest there.

On March 12, the blob’s DHS mandated that anyone flying into the US go through 13 airports. Some of these unchecked people went through Detroit. Hence the outsized number of cases around the airport in Wayne County.

 

[Rocko]

I disagree wholeheartedly disagree with the OP. Mitigation efforts slowed down the virus. The math is the proof. How bad would it have gotten without these efforts? Impossible to tell, but it’s still spreading fast with the mitigation efforts. 40 k dead in 6 weeks is nothing to sneeze at.

the OP came down with the Chinese Communist Party virus & recovered. He has a better perspective than most people on here. And the numbers keep bearing that out as we do more testing.

We need a cure or this country is fcuked

There’s no such thing as a cure for a virus. The best we hope for is a antiviral medication that is very effective. A vaccine is unrealistic, because we don’t have a vaccine for any strand of the corona virus.

 

[Sun Devil 92]

In a "bad year" for the flu, between 50,000 and 100,000 Americans die from the virus. I'm willing to bet that by the end of this year, roughly the same number of people will have died from this virus.

And I'm also willing to bet that there's zero difference in either the total per capita number who become infected and the mortality rate between our country (which ordered a shutdown) and Sweden's, which has refused to order anyone to shut down their business or stay in their homes.

If you accept that the virus had been circulating in our population for months by the time the lock down orders arrived (which is certainly the case) and if you know it's highly contagious, then ordering everyone into their homes in mid-March was closing the barn door when the horses were already long gone.

What does work to control the spread of a novel virus? Herd immunity. Humans have immune systems. They work great, especially in younger people. We can handle viruses.

What we should do is tell older and sicker people to put on a mask. Wear rubber gloves. Avoid crowds at all costs. Avoid hospitals. Stay home whenever you can.

We should have told everyone else: Go about your lives. Yes, we should also add that some of you – probably about 20% – are going to get this novel coronavirus this year. (Normally about 9% of the population gets the flu every year... so your chances of catching COVID-19 this year are about double what you'd normally face with the regular flu.)

And if you get it, it's probably going to suck. But the younger you are and the healthier you are, the more likely it is that you won't have any symptoms at all.

So, let's not cancel school. Let's let the kids go and get exposed to this virus when they are young, when they can handle it, and when they can quickly develop immunity.

That's the best way to build the herd immunity we need – allow everyone who can manage the virus to get exposed. As quickly as possible. After all, the sooner the herd immunity we need develops naturally, the safer we will all be. Deaths are now projected at 60k?

Top coronavirus model lowers US death estimates in updated projection - Washington Examiner

Researchers lowered their estimated U.S. death toll from the coronavirus pandemic in a recent update of a key model.The University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation lowered its predicted death toll by more than 8,000 on Friday, only four days after its previous...

www.washingtonexaminer.com

I am in agreement.....after we get testing in place.

How much longer before the blob gets testing in place?

Testing is irrelevant. As Fauci said you would have to test someone daily to be certain and that is not feasible and antibody testing is highly flawed.

so the tests aren’t perfect like your blob said they were?

Tests work but you have to do them daily for them to work. 99% of the people will have no to mild symptoms. Herd immunity is the key as well as treatments like Rem and Hydrox

So if you’re found to have Covid-19 today, you have to get tested tomorrow to see if you still have it?

Doubtful.

No. You misunderstand. I could Be tested today and be negative but have it and then tomorrow it could show up. That is the problem. And the next day and the next day. Key is to get it and develop immunity.

...or die.

Which you will do eventually.

One has to wonder how much our dependence on anti-biotics is going to hurt us. Not with respect to this virus, but just in terms of our bodies getting used to the work being done for them.

Yup. Not to mention an overly sanitary lifestyle.

Would agree.

Many year ago a doctor wrote an article entitled "Eat Shit" (yes....that was the title).

His point was that we need to get our bodies tuned up to defend themselves.

Ecouraged parents to let their kids skin their knees and then let them play in the dirt.