What happens when the trainwreck doesn't materialize?

[Greenbeard]

The GOP has been playing a very interesting game with its doomsday predictions lately. They've gone so far as to start spreading the idea--with the helpful assistance of the rightwing infotainment complex--that health insurance premiums are about to jump 400%.

But now that the actual prices for next year are starting to trickle out and aren't confirming their predictions (see: Premiums drop, coverage expands in Washington's exchange; Surprisingly low premium rates submitted for Oregon exchange; 13 insurers approved for California's exchange submit low premiums; etc), what happens?

It Looks Like Obamacare May Not Be A 'Train Wreck' After All - Business Insider

After weeks of talk about implementation "train wreck" for the Affordable Care Act, supporters of the law finally got some good news Thursday.

Insurance premiums in California's health care exchange will provide plans that range from a 2 percent increase to a 29 percent decrease in premiums, compared to current insurance rates.

Covered California, the state agency in charge of the state's health insurance exchange, announced on Thursday that the state will provide 13 insurance plans next year. Medium-level "bronze" and "silver" health insurance plans came in nearly $200 lower a month than predicted, according to the Washington Post's Sarah Kliff.

The most important part to Blumberg, however, is that premiums will cost much lower than was expected. In 2009, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that a "silver plan" would cost an average of $5,200 per year. In reality, at least in California, it will cost approximately $3,312, or $276 per month.

That leads to an interesting scenario, posed by Ezra Klein this morning as he considered some very good news for Obamacare:

Of course, California and Oregon are managing Obamacare particularly well. But the state-by-state nature of the Affordable Care Act creates really unusual political dynamics around how the law is perceived in its first year.

Imagine it’s the end of 2014. California now boasts a working, near-universal health-care system. Nothing perfect, but clearly a a success after the first year of implementation. Texas, meanwhile, is a bit of a mess. They didn’t allow the Medicaid expansion so the state’s poorest residents got nothing. They didn’t help with the exchanges, or the outreach, so there aren’t many choices, and premiums aren’t as low one might hope.

Viewed in isolation, Texas’s problems would be deadly for the law. But viewed next to California, they might mainly be a problem for the political class in Texas, which has failed to implement a clearly workable law.

It seems pretty clear that Medicaid can be a winning issue for state-level Dems next year in states that fail to expand the program. But what about exchanges, particularly in those states in which the leadership decided that the federal government could do a better job than the state at overseeing its marketplace?

If a neighboring state that opted to design and run its own exchange is seeing in some cases double digit decreases in premiums next year relative to comparable plans this year, how do residents of a state react, particularly if their federally-facilitated exchange is shall we say less than robust?

In other words, the GOP has gone all in on the doomsday prediction that Obamacare is inherently unworkable--the cracks in the facade of that claim are starting to grow pretty quickly, thanks to the outlandishness of the claims they've been making. So at what point does the effort by leaders in some states to sabotage reform in their own states begin to backfire, as their responsibility for attempting to deprive their residents of what are going to become increasingly obvious benefits comes into focus?

There seems to be a lot of agreement that Obamacare is going to be a major issue in states in the 2014 elections. I have to say, I certainly hope that's the case.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

The federal government always does things cheaper and faster than the private sector just like... well, um, er...

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[boedicca]

Business Insider is run by Henry Blodget, who is very left-leaning.

In the real world, the Obama administration is in a panic over the delays in setting up exchanges (computer software is hard!) and getting people enrolled. For the latter, they have a $58 per head bounty for former ACORN organizers to sign up enrollees.

The results of the early launch for "pre-exisiting" condition coverage are telling. Far less enrollees with the cost per enrollee being multiple times more than estimated. This is the prequel to the larger program. The only people who have an incentive to sign up are the already sick. And the costs for them will be much higher than planned.

And now we have the IRS fracas...which is putting a spotlight on the types of people who are going to be our financial overlords to get access.

 

[Desperado]

You have to realize that the Federal government is very slow to react.
This has not blown over. It is a lot like waiting for water to boil. Very slow. but it will come.
As we speak they may even be rehashing the line from Absence of Malice:
What'd you figure you'd do after government service, Eric?

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Also how can you not love the IRS enforcing the law?

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[boedicca]

Also his can you not love the IRS enforcing the law?

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Fo shizzle. What could go wrong with that?

 

[williepete]

As we speak they may even be rehashing the line from Absence of Malice:
What'd you figure you'd do after government service, Eric?

Three to five at Leavenworth?

 

[Clementine]

If the train wreck doesn't arrive, then virtually everyone will be wrong. Reid might be especially surprised since I believe he is the first one to call Obamacare a train wreck. Also, congress and the IRS employee unions want exempt from Obamacare. The people who know it best want nothing to do with it and they still say it's best for us and they are such gifted liars, they do it with a straight face. They don't want other bureaucrats having real time access to their bank accounts. That is a huge problem and one that everyone should be screaming about.

I take it that you are hoping the Dems are wrong. Unfortunately, this is one thing they do understand.

We already know costs are rising. We already know it's costing jobs. Doctors are threatening to retire early. Waiting lists are inevitable, which is why Obama mentioned bringing doctors from other countries. Bureaucrats, not doctors have the final say in your treatment. And we know how much the IRS and others in this administration love Republicans. I am sure we'll all be approved for life saving procedures.

I am thinking the train has already jumped the track. Can it get worse once the IRS is enforcing it? Hell, yes it can!! As we head for the cliff............................

 

[Quantum Windbag]

The GOP has been playing a very interesting game with its doomsday predictions lately. They've gone so far as to start spreading the idea--with the helpful assistance of the rightwing infotainment complex--that health insurance premiums are about to jump 400%.

But now that the actual prices for next year are starting to trickle out and aren't confirming their predictions (see: Premiums drop, coverage expands in Washington's exchange; Surprisingly low premium rates submitted for Oregon exchange; 13 insurers approved for California's exchange submit low premiums; etc), what happens?

It Looks Like Obamacare May Not Be A 'Train Wreck' After All - Business Insider

After weeks of talk about implementation "train wreck" for the Affordable Care Act, supporters of the law finally got some good news Thursday.

Insurance premiums in California's health care exchange will provide plans that range from a 2 percent increase to a 29 percent decrease in premiums, compared to current insurance rates.

Covered California, the state agency in charge of the state's health insurance exchange, announced on Thursday that the state will provide 13 insurance plans next year. Medium-level "bronze" and "silver" health insurance plans came in nearly $200 lower a month than predicted, according to the Washington Post's Sarah Kliff.

The most important part to Blumberg, however, is that premiums will cost much lower than was expected. In 2009, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that a "silver plan" would cost an average of $5,200 per year. In reality, at least in California, it will cost approximately $3,312, or $276 per month.

That leads to an interesting scenario, posed by Ezra Klein this morning as he considered some very good news for Obamacare:

Of course, California and Oregon are managing Obamacare particularly well. But the state-by-state nature of the Affordable Care Act creates really unusual political dynamics around how the law is perceived in its first year.

Imagine it’s the end of 2014. California now boasts a working, near-universal health-care system. Nothing perfect, but clearly a a success after the first year of implementation. Texas, meanwhile, is a bit of a mess. They didn’t allow the Medicaid expansion so the state’s poorest residents got nothing. They didn’t help with the exchanges, or the outreach, so there aren’t many choices, and premiums aren’t as low one might hope.

Viewed in isolation, Texas’s problems would be deadly for the law. But viewed next to California, they might mainly be a problem for the political class in Texas, which has failed to implement a clearly workable law.

It seems pretty clear that Medicaid can be a winning issue for state-level Dems next year in states that fail to expand the program. But what about exchanges, particularly in those states in which the leadership decided that the federal government could do a better job than the state at overseeing its marketplace?

If a neighboring state that opted to design and run its own exchange is seeing in some cases double digit decreases in premiums next year relative to comparable plans this year, how do residents of a state react, particularly if their federally-facilitated exchange is shall we say less than robust?

In other words, the GOP has gone all in on the doomsday prediction that Obamacare is inherently unworkable--the cracks in the facade of that claim are starting to grow pretty quickly, thanks to the outlandishness of the claims they've been making. So at what point does the effort by leaders in some states to sabotage reform in their own states begin to backfire, as their responsibility for attempting to deprive their residents of what are going to become increasingly obvious benefits comes into focus?

There seems to be a lot of agreement that Obamacare is going to be a major issue in states in the 2014 elections. I have to say, I certainly hope that's the case.

Interesting.

I wonder, is there a reason you didn't post this link?

UnitedHealth, Aetna and Cigna opt out of California insurance exchange - latimes.com

 

[Greenbeard]

If the train wreck doesn't arrive, then virtually everyone will be wrong. Reid might be especially surprised since I believe he is the first one to call Obamacare a train wreck.

The Democrats are pretty obviously messaging, lowering expectations so that reality turns out better than folks expect (e.g. the news out of the Oregon, Washington, California, etc this month that premium changes next year will range from small increases to large decreases would be good news by themselves; yet next to the predictions that have been circulating they look positively miraculous). Why the Republicans have been helping them to lower expectations I have no idea.

We already know costs are rising.

Health care costs are rising about as slowly as they ever have.

 

[Political Junky]

Oh no, no train wreck. How can this be?

 

[PoliticalChic]

If the train wreck doesn't arrive, then virtually everyone will be wrong. Reid might be especially surprised since I believe he is the first one to call Obamacare a train wreck.

The Democrats are pretty obviously messaging, lowering expectations so that reality turns out better than folks expect (e.g. the news out of the Oregon, Washington, California, etc this month that premium changes next year will range from small increases to large decreases would be good news by themselves; yet next to the predictions that have been circulating they look positively miraculous). Why the Republicans have been helping them to lower expectations I have no idea.

We already know costs are rising.

Health care costs are rising about as slowly as they ever have.

Hey, Red....some dyslexic said you were full of carp.


1. "When President Obama was selling his health care legislation to Congress, he declared that “the plan I’m proposing will cost around $900 billion over 10 years.” But with the law’s major provisions set to kick in next year, a new analysis by the Congressional Budget Officeprojects that the law will cost double that, or $1.8 trillion." CBO: Obamacare costs double to $1.8 trillion in first decade | WashingtonExaminer.com

a. "Given the risks of faster than expected health care inflation, slow growth in
incomes, and the potential for less employer-sponsored insurance in the future, there is good reason to anticipate that the cost could rise further yet." http://americanactionforum.org/site...rowing Cost of ACA Subsidies_Revised_2012.pdf



3. But this is not restricted to government costs! Private health insurance costs are also soaring, increasing by an incredible 16.4% from January 2011, when ObamaCare regulations first started going into effect, to September 2012. Bureau of Labor Statistics Data


a. Compare that to the trend in increases in healthcare expenditures:
2003 8.6%
2004 6.9%
2005 6.5%
2006 6.7%
2007 6.1%
Compare to 10.5% in 1970 and 13% in 1980
The American Spectator : Downgrading American Medical Care


b. "ObamaCare not only dramatically increased rates, but undid progress in lowering insurance costs." Lott, "At The Brink," p.9.



BTW....do you work for the administration?

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Oh no, no train wreck. How can this be?

The train wreck is already here, it's the IRS, the group to enforce this Workers Paradise of a Law, going after conservative groups

 

[Quantum Windbag]

Oh no, no train wreck. How can this be?

Yep, no train wreck here.

Now, some unions upset over Obamacare - CBS News

 

[Avorysuds]

Oh Greenbeard.... If we didn't know any better, we would all think you're paid to push Obamacare. Ever those on the left don't understand what your saying half the time, hell Obama doesn't even know what yer talkin about.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

If the train wreck doesn't arrive, then virtually everyone will be wrong. Reid might be especially surprised since I believe he is the first one to call Obamacare a train wreck.

The Democrats are pretty obviously messaging, lowering expectations so that reality turns out better than folks expect (e.g. the news out of the Oregon, Washington, California, etc this month that premium changes next year will range from small increases to large decreases would be good news by themselves; yet next to the predictions that have been circulating they look positively miraculous). Why the Republicans have been helping them to lower expectations I have no idea.

We already know costs are rising.

Health care costs are rising about as slowly as they ever have.

Hey, Red....some dyslexic said you were full of carp.


1. "When President Obama was selling his health care legislation to Congress, he declared that “the plan I’m proposing will cost around $900 billion over 10 years.” But with the law’s major provisions set to kick in next year, a new analysis by the Congressional Budget Officeprojects that the law will cost double that, or $1.8 trillion." CBO: Obamacare costs double to $1.8 trillion in first decade | WashingtonExaminer.com

a. "Given the risks of faster than expected health care inflation, slow growth in
incomes, and the potential for less employer-sponsored insurance in the future, there is good reason to anticipate that the cost could rise further yet." http://americanactionforum.org/site...rowing Cost of ACA Subsidies_Revised_2012.pdf



3. But this is not restricted to government costs! Private health insurance costs are also soaring, increasing by an incredible 16.4% from January 2011, when ObamaCare regulations first started going into effect, to September 2012. Bureau of Labor Statistics Data


a. Compare that to the trend in increases in healthcare expenditures:
2003 8.6%
2004 6.9%
2005 6.5%
2006 6.7%
2007 6.1%
Compare to 10.5% in 1970 and 13% in 1980
The American Spectator : Downgrading American Medical Care


b. "ObamaCare not only dramatically increased rates, but undid progress in lowering insurance costs." Lott, "At The Brink," p.9.



BTW....do you work for the administration?

He does.

 

[Dugdale_Jukes]

Chinless McConnell, John Boneless, Fox News reports:

 

[Katzndogz]

Max Bauccus helped pass obamacare and sees it as such a train wreck he's not even going to seek reelection.

Insurers charged with coming up with a plan for affordable insurance have done so. It's called skinny insurance. No surgical coverage, no hospitalization, no accidental injury, no catastrophic coverage. Routine office visits only. The effect is the same as insuring your car for oil changes but not accidents. Technically there is insurance it just won't help you if you get sick.

This trainwreck is going to hit a brick wall.

 

[Greenbeard]

Insurers charged with coming up with a plan for affordable insurance have done so. It's called skinny insurance. No surgical coverage, no hospitalization, no accidental injury, no catastrophic coverage. Routine office visits only. The effect is the same as insuring your car for oil changes but not accidents. Technically there is insurance it just won't help you if you get sick.

Not quite. A lack of benefits isn't the reason California's annual premiums are going to be thousands of dollars cheaper per year than the pessimists predicted.

What benefits are included in the Covered California Health Plans?

The plans that will be offered through Covered California are guaranteed to provide basic levels of coverage and provide consumer protections set forth in the Affordable Care Act, including the ten Essential Health Benefits:

1. Ambulatory patient services
2. Emergency services
3. Hospitalization
4. Maternity and newborn care
5. Mental health and substance use disorder services, including behavioral health treatment
6. Prescription drugs
7. Rehabilitative and habilitative services and devices
8. Laboratory services
9. Preventive and wellness services and chronic disease management
10. Pediatric services

 

[Katzndogz]

Look up skinny insurance.