What the national polls say about a 2020 Trump vs. Biden race.

[AzogtheDefiler]

1) I don't you understand that life expectancy has zero to do with UH.
2) US is still in the lead. For you 1 year means a lot and we eat way worse so you cannot talk out of both sides of your mouth. Well you are.
3) They may receive medical care but at a cost as they are not part of the UH and are not citizens.
4) Perhaps or not. It is still early, the economy is doing well and if the Mueller report is a bleh then he may be OK. I am fine with you saying the indicators are bad but you cannot possibly foresee an election of 2020 when you don't even know if Biden will win the nomination.

At this time in 2015, you would have given Trump ZERO chance to win or maybe even run. You're such a F*CKING troll. All you do is talk but don't listen. Hence the name calling is well deserved. Stop trolling and I'll cease the name calling.

1.) No one who studies life expectancy or demography would ever claim that access to healthcare has nothing to do with life expectancy.
2.) According to one source. Still debatable. Plus in the United States, it only counts for people that have access to treatment.
3.) Really, so what money would Syrian refugees be using to pay for their healthcare? What, did they take off their clothes and sell them?
4.) I want Biden to win, but any of the Democrats would likely beat Trump given his approval ratings. The only difference is that Biden would have larger margin of victory over Trump than the other candidates. I can't foresee the results of the 2020 election, but Trump's poor indicators make it one of the easiest ones to ever predict.

Trolling? This is my thread. You choose to come in here and call me names. That's childish and by definition, trolling.

1) Our healthcare is chaotic but far from bad. It’s actually fantastic here in Boston. You refuse to acknowledge the diet piece of it. Why?

2) Hospitals don’t turn people without insurance away.

3) How many refugees? Nothing like we have here with anchor babies. And again no one gets turned away.

4) If Trump wins again will you leave this board 4ever? You seem very confident so that should be a no brainer. Correct? Pretty sure his approval rating is above 90% with Republicans. We ll see post debates where he stands with the undecideds.

1.) I've acknowledged the diet part of it as well as explain how Universal Healthcare could help solve that problem.

2.) Yep, insurance, nobody needs that, right?

3.) Millions! The level of war and displacement in the middle east and Africa far exceeds anything seen in Mexico or Latin America.

4.) Nope, but I doubt you and many of your fellow Trump worshipers will stick around when reality hits November 3, 2020 and you finally realize what I was saying in this thread was the truth backed up by factual data. The number of voters registered as Republicans continues to drop. So yes, Trump has a strong majority in a shrinking party. Its only 29% of voters now. Trump will have to run on his record as President which so far, most Americans don't like. A debate here or there is not going to save him.

1) UH has zero to do with diet. Close some fast food places. Stop the drugs that kill millions from entering the country at such a rapid pace.

2) Never said that. You’re a troll. I said They don’t turn people away.

3) Link? Doubt you have it. Making it up as you go along.

4) I am an Independent. The Democrat party has betrayed my people and hence I will not vote Blue. Your stats are wrong. 31% as Jew hating Democrats and 24% as Republicans and 42% as Independents. So you make a bold statement but won’t stand behind it. Not very brave. Trump may lose. He may win. Unless you have a time machine you don’t know. I used to vote Blue and then the party decided that Israel was an evil nation and turned against it. Against me. So now I turn against the party and its sheep followers like you. Thanks to the likes of Tlaib and Omar hopefully my fellow Jews will join me.

1.) Diet and health are closely related, so having access to doctors and other medical professionals definitely impacts diet. Education, and knowledge are gained when people have better access to healthcare. It changes what people do and their habits to a greater degree when they don't have that access.

2.) You've suggested it does not matter. Your the name caller which is what part of the definition of a troll is.

3.) Syria used to have a population of 24 million. Its now down to 17 or 18 million. Between 2011 and 2018, Germany accepted over a million refugees. The most destructive conflicts on the planet are occurring in Yemen, and Syria, although the conflict in Syria is starting to wind down now. Africa is the poorest continent in the world. War and poverty there, and most people in Africa flee to Europe when the leave the continent. No place in Latin America has the war in poverty that these regions in the certain countries in the middles Middle East and Africa do. Immigration to the United States from Latin America is less today than it was decades ago. Less people are coming across the border to immigrate overall which makes Trumps Wall even more absurd.

4.) Great, that just proves my point more. Trump is not going to be saved by 24% of the voting population.

1) No diet is diet and healthcare is healthcare. The better the diet the fewer times you need to see your doctor. We have way too many fatsos in this country and the MDs are happy to write them meds for high blood pressure and diabetes vs simple exercise. UH would make it worse. Read a book.

2) “Your” LOL. It doesn’t matter the reason our healthcare system is broken is because 28mil sit on Medicaid and rip us off. And those w/o insurance still
Don’t get turned away. I agree we need to fix it but before we do we need to address other issues first such as immediate citizenship for those who are born here to illegals and the issue with illegals themselves. Japan doesn’t have that problem. Europe is becoming awful hence Brexit.

3) It is fewer people and because of that we are $22trn in debt, run an annual deficit and now everything has to be in both English and Spanish. People also die in Syria due to constant conflicts. Europe is overrun and almost lost. I don’t want the US to be anything like Europe. Cali, Oregon and Wash State urban centers were beautiful in the 80s I am told and now are overrun with illegals and or vagrants and suck. We are not moving in the right direction. UH only makes it worse.

4) No it doesn’t because 42% may swing either way and most of that 31% is in NY and Cali and he won’t win those states anyway. The keys are the swing states of Fla, Michigan and Ohio possibly. He doesn’t need the popular vote to retain. Many of those biased polls are done to dissuade voters. What you have to gauge is can Biden turn PA, Wisconsin, Fla, Michigan and Ohio Blue. Maybe he can but that is TBD and subject to debates. I know many voters who are undecideds.

Grow up

 

[sakinago]

Repeat ad infinitum:

Creepy Joe Biden throws live puppies into rush hour traffic!

Creepy Joe Biden is a secret Satan worshiper!

Creepy Joe Biden fondles children!

Creepy Joe Biden is gay!

Creepy Joe Biden is the proprietor of Comet Pizza!

"Joe Biden" is Hebrew for "turtle fucker"!

Creepy Joe Biden killed Kennedy!

Creepy Joe Biden plagiarized Michelle Obama's speech!

Creepy Joe Biden slept with Stormy Daniels and paid her for her silence!

Creepy Joe Biden tried to get a Biden Tower built in Moscow!

Creepy Joe Biden bragged about grabbing pussies!

Okay I didn’t understand this post at all until I saw the rewards for it. Apparently there’s a market to rank this stuff as funny, so incredibly low hanging fruit. Not a substantial market, but enough of one to keep weird shit alive like this.



But in all honesty how could you not watch this shit and not have you’re predator defense systems not engage? I feel like I have to separate joe from every one of these kids with a punch to the face. At least trump kept it to pornstars. Like you can just sense the parents trying to intervene but be conflicted by it being joe Biden. Yea trump had his pussy grabber comments, but joe is getting waaaaay to friendly with children here. There’s no other word for it but creepy. Show me another politician who acts like this around kids and I’ll drop it being creepy. And then I’ll throw in a million. This shit is wrong

Trump was accused of sexual assault by over a dozen women. Trump accurately described engaging in sexual assault of women in a tape recording of a conversation he had with Billy Bush. Trump divorced and cheated on his first two wives. He has cheated on his third wife and illegally used his money to pay them to keep silent. His Lawyer, Cohen, is going to jail partly for this crime. Once Trump is not President, he will be facing jail time for this crime as well. Both Cohen and David Pecker of the national enquire are on record saying that Trump ordered the payments to keep women who he cheated on his wife with silent in order to influence the outcome of the 2016 election. That's against the law and Michael Cohen is going to jail for it since he helped arrange the payments.

Has Joe Biden done any of that? Nope. Sorry, but Biden wins this game easily. Most Women did not vote for Trump in 2016. Even more women will be voting against Trump in 2020.

Those dozen women haven’t evolved into anything, and this was during the me too movement I believe, or at least around the same time. Trump was clearly being bragodacious with the pussy grabber comments. For trump to face jail time, you’d have to prove he never paid hush money to women before he was running, do you honestly think he didn’t? Even then this is a murky area of is it a campaign expenditure, especially since the last time someone was charged with paying hush money he was acquitted, that was John Edwards. Paying hush money is no where near being against the law, which is why NDA’s exist. Cohen is also going to jail for other reasons too, and pretty much absolved trump if everything in his testimony and then just attacked his character. How is it I am explaining all this to you months and years after the fact? I notice you also didn’t say shit about Russia collusion, fancy that. That’s all I heard about for two fucking years. Now it looks like a clear abuse of power to run surveillance on someone using one source of oppo research that at the time was deemed at the very least highly suspect. So suspect CNN didn’t even touch it.

Biden on the other hand is on camera. He’s being super creepy on camera. He’s being creepy with 13 year old girls. He’s playing with and smelling their hair. He’s whispering in their ear how pretty they are. I want someone to watch that and try to tell me that the girls and their parents don’t look very uncomfortable at all. You can see pictures of his hands on where their breasts would be if they were developed. Yea Biden is fucking creepy. It hasn’t been just one moment you can explain away as just an awkward exchange. It’s a half dozen exchanges of him being fucking creepy. He was setting off warning bells with the parents and the girls. You can see a dad rush over to give him a handshake to insert himself in the creepiness. You can see a mom just grilling the fuck out of him while he’s being creepy. And you hear the camera man say dads gonna ge close by as a half joke when Biden asked for a photo with just the girl. Why would someone make that joke?

Correction: I watched it again, it’s not the cameraman who says dads gonna stand by pretty close, it’s the DAD saying it. Clearly he doesn’t perceive Biden as harmless.

 

[iamwhatiseem]

Once again another low informed wants to compare health statistics between America and some European country.
It is the food we eat.
Food
Diet
High Sodium
High Processed Sugars
High Saturated Fats

GET IT???

Diet is not the only thing, but Universal Healthcare in the United States would improve that aspect of the issue.

Now you are just trolling... another danielpalos

 

[Markle]

4.) Nope, but I doubt you and many of your fellow Trump worshipers will stick around when reality hits November 3, 2020 and you finally realize what I was saying in this thread was the truth backed up by factual data. The number of voters registered as Republicans continues to drop. So yes, Trump has a strong majority in a shrinking party. Its only 29% of voters now. Trump will have to run on his record as President which so far, most Americans don't like. A debate here or there is not going to save him.

As you know, so does the number of voters registered as Democrats.

Democrats and Republicans are now tied at 30 percent with Independents at 38 percent.

Party Affiliation

 

[busybee01]

Rasmussen has their own problems. They use robocalls to conduct their polls. Since robocalls are illegal, that means they can only call people with landlines. That means they oversample Republicans. Also likely voters mean that they make a guesstimate as to what the turnout will be. In 2018, Rasmussen goofed badly as they had Republicans +1 in the generic ballot when Democrats won by around 9.

In addition, the exact composition of the turnout can vary. In Pennsylvania, the suburbs made up 52% of the vote and 57% in 2018. Trump won the vote 52-44 in 2016 and lost the suburban vote around 9 points. Women went 55-42 for Democrats in 2016 and 63-35 in 2018.

Age does not make one wise. Plenty of older people are scammed and Trump is a premier con man.

It is funny how different people see things so differently. I see Pelosi, Schumer, Harry Reid, Wasserman Shultz and so on the same as you see Trump.

The numbers show that most people agree with me on Trump. That is why they gave the Democrats the House.

No

That is not how it works

That is the way it has worked. Voters have been energized to vote against Trump since he won in 2016.

I am sure the Republicans thought the same thing when they won over 60 seats in the house and 6 seats in the senate back in 2010. I am sure the Republicans felt equally good in 1994, after taking 50 seats in the house and 8 seats in the senate. Romney went on to lose in a landslide. Dole got absolutely throttled in 1996. Thing is, the Dems win last November was much weaker than the 2010 & 1994 Republican victories. The Dems even lost ground in the senate. That is a poor result compared to other recent waves in 2010 and 1994. I expect the same result in 2020 as 1996 and 2010. Trump (sitting President) wins relatively easy.

With Schiff and Pelosi walking back impeachment ahead of the Meuller report, I think the writing is on the wall.

The reason is simple. After 2010, Republicans were able to impose severe gerrymanders in many states. That is the reason that Republicans were able to pick up 63 House seats. Republicans in the House will continue to be under pressure as these gerrymanders are undone. Combine that with Republicans' continued woes in suburban districts and Republicans are in big trouble. The Republican wins in the Senate was much weaker than expected. Republicans lost Senate seats in Nevada and Arizona. In 2020, the shoe is on the other foot. Only 1 Democrat seat is in jeopardy while 7 could be in danger for Republicans..

 

[busybee01]

If it is Biden vs Trump, the Dems are in for some pain. Biden is a lightweight. He is as weak a candidate as they come. Biden is no where near the candidate that Hillary Clinton was in 2016. Biden knew better to even try, and Sanders went quickly into the fetal position when push came to shove.

Look at the midterms for 1982, 1994 & 2010. How did those results reflect the next general election? One of the few exceptions was 2002, when Bush picked up a few seats following 911.

I don't know who the Dem nominee will be. But, it wont be Biden or Sanders. They are pushovers. One of the others will step up and crush them, or Clinton will be rolled out by the DNC to save the day.

If it is Biden vs Trump then the Republicans will be feeling the pain. Hillary Clinton was a terrible candidate in 2016. She ran much weaker than Biden or even Sanders in general election matchups against Republicans. She was largely able to win because Sanders had no hope of matching her nationwide reach.

2020 will reflect the midterms. Trump was a major factor in the midterms with suburban women especially burying the GOP. They will turn out in 2020 as well.

Women will definitely be out in the millions to vote Trump out of office. Biden will help insure Trump will lose the man vote as well.

I would expect Trump to win the male vote albeit by a smaller margin than he did in 2016. The difference will be suburban voters. Suburban males will vote against Trump and suburban women will bury Trump. In Michigan, Republicans in Michigan actually did better with black voters than expected but were buried by female voters.

 

[busybee01]

The numbers show that most people agree with me on Trump. That is why they gave the Democrats the House.

No

That is not how it works

That is the way it has worked. Voters have been energized to vote against Trump since he won in 2016.

I am sure the Republicans thought the same thing when they won over 60 seats in the house and 6 seats in the senate back in 2010. I am sure the Republicans felt equally good in 1994, after taking 50 seats in the house and 8 seats in the senate. Romney went on to lose in a landslide. Dole got absolutely throttled in 1996. Thing is, the Dems win last November was much weaker than the 2010 & 1994 Republican victories. The Dems even lost ground in the senate. That is a poor result compared to other recent waves in 2010 and 1994. I expect the same result in 2020 as 1996 and 2010. Trump (sitting President) wins relatively easy.

With Schiff and Pelosi walking back impeachment ahead of the Meuller report, I think the writing is on the wall.

With the election only 20 months away, why bother with impeachment. Its better for Democrats to face a wounded animal in the 2020 election. It will make it and easy kill, slaughter, and a fabulous celebratory feast and victory.

No it's all about running and hiding

The rats are ready to start jumping ship

The one issue that will be screamed all over is his democrats are going against science and murdering us citizens with abortion

This issue will have people to draw a line and the. Know who are the liars and crooks

The democrat party is now toast

The Republican Party is going too far to the right on abortion. Voters do not support overturning Roe vs Wade and by a very large margin. These fetal heartbeat bills are a backdoor attempt to ban abortions. Suburban voters especially women do not support this. It alienates them and helps only in red states which are already backing Trump.

 

[busybee01]

The dems will never nominate Biden. It would alienate too many of their base.

After the CA primary we'll see who is left standing when the smoke clears.

Then with Biden gone, Trump wins in a landslide...

And the Republicans would never nominate Trump. Not that Biden needs Trumps magic situation from 2016, but just as the wide number of new candidates benefited Trump, so does the wide number of new candidates benefit Biden and to a lesser degree Sanders. It allows Biden and Sanders to win Primaries around the country by smaller margins and pick up large numbers of votes for the eventual nomination. The newbies can't get traction or money or what they do get is divided among so many people it amounts to nothing meaningful. Harris won't be able to win even her own state and she is in third place. Far behind in third place. If O'Rourke could go viral somehow he is really the only one that could challenge Sanders and Biden.

At the end of the day, Biden is more electable than Sanders because Biden is more of a centrist than Sanders. The most important thing to Democratic voters, as shown in polls, in 2020 is ELECTABILITY and NOT IDEOLOGY.

Finally, most Democrats simply want to get rid of Trump. With Biden as the nominee, there is simply no other option. Sitting at home and not voting is a vote for Trump. Voting third party is essentially a vote for Trump. If they want Trump gone, they will have to vote for the nominee, and right now that looks like its going to be Biden. The only one with the name, following, and strength to possibly prevent Biden from getting the nomination is Sanders.

But Sanders failed against Clinton and will likely fail against Biden for the same reasons. The closer you are to the center, the more electable you are in the race against Trump. Biden is closer to the center than Sanders.

Nice rationale', hope it works out for you. A Trump-Biden contest would be worth the price of admission!
More comments on your post:
1. The young progressives want a young candidate, so it looks like a generational battle, old folks vs young folks, 73% of dems want a "fresh face"
73% of Democrats Want ‘A Fresh Face’ As 2020 Nominee - Rasmussen Reports®
2. Not sure who the minority voters prefer? Can't find any polls?!
3. Sanders didn't "fail" against Clinton, the party (Brazille and Wasserman-Schultz) cheated Bernie out of the nomination, it all depends who the party tells the "super-delegates" to vote for. In 2020 to your point, that would be Joe Biden. So Bernie gets screwed again...

1. Rasmussen missed the midterms as they got nothing wrong. Also electability is a major issue as well.
2. Clinton got 54% of the primary vote compared to Sanders' 42%. She would have won without the super-delegates. Sanders was not cheated out of anything.
3."It appears Harris has some work to do in South Carolina, particularly within the African American community. Among African American Democratic primary voters Biden leads with 43% of the vote, Sanders captures 15% of this vote with Harris at 9% and Booker at 7%. "
POLL: Biden up big with black voters… | CauseACTION

 

[busybee01]

The winner of Florida wins the 2020
Election and may lose the popular vote because of so many conservatives fleeing New York and California to the swing states

Popular gov Desantis will bring Florida to trump


Pro-Trump DeSantis Has Highest Approval Of Any Florida Governor In A Decade

Florida will be extremely close. Michigan and Pennsylvania are good bets to go Democrat, The 1 electoral vote that Trump won in Maine is likely to go to Democrats because of the state's numbered voting system. Republicans are in potential trouble in Georgia and Arizona, Even Texas Republicans are worried. No states in the Clinton column seem to be in comparable danger.

 

[busybee01]

The dems will never nominate Biden. It would alienate too many of their base.

After the CA primary we'll see who is left standing when the smoke clears.

Then with Biden gone, Trump wins in a landslide...

And the Republicans would never nominate Trump. Not that Biden needs Trumps magic situation from 2016, but just as the wide number of new candidates benefited Trump, so does the wide number of new candidates benefit Biden and to a lesser degree Sanders. It allows Biden and Sanders to win Primaries around the country by smaller margins and pick up large numbers of votes for the eventual nomination. The newbies can't get traction or money or what they do get is divided among so many people it amounts to nothing meaningful. Harris won't be able to win even her own state and she is in third place. Far behind in third place. If O'Rourke could go viral somehow he is really the only one that could challenge Sanders and Biden.

At the end of the day, Biden is more electable than Sanders because Biden is more of a centrist than Sanders. The most important thing to Democratic voters, as shown in polls, in 2020 is ELECTABILITY and NOT IDEOLOGY.

Finally, most Democrats simply want to get rid of Trump. With Biden as the nominee, there is simply no other option. Sitting at home and not voting is a vote for Trump. Voting third party is essentially a vote for Trump. If they want Trump gone, they will have to vote for the nominee, and right now that looks like its going to be Biden. The only one with the name, following, and strength to possibly prevent Biden from getting the nomination is Sanders.

But Sanders failed against Clinton and will likely fail against Biden for the same reasons. The closer you are to the center, the more electable you are in the race against Trump. Biden is closer to the center than Sanders.

Nice rationale', hope it works out for you. A Trump-Biden contest would be worth the price of admission!
More comments on your post:
1. The young progressives want a young candidate, so it looks like a generational battle, old folks vs young folks, 73% of dems want a "fresh face"
73% of Democrats Want ‘A Fresh Face’ As 2020 Nominee - Rasmussen Reports®
2. Not sure who the minority voters prefer? Can't find any polls?!
3. Sanders didn't "fail" against Clinton, the party (Brazille and Wasserman-Schultz) cheated Bernie out of the nomination, it all depends who the party tells the "super-delegates" to vote for. In 2020 to your point, that would be Joe Biden. So Bernie gets screwed again...

1. Young progressives usually don't decide who gets the nomination. Plus their a smaller group in the Democratic party and their divided among many different candidates with their support. This division aids Biden and Sanders.

2. Biden is preferred by minorities over Sanders. Sanders has always had a bit of a weakness with minorities.

3. Clinton won the nomination by any and every measure you look at. Sanders did well in the smaller and more rural states that did not have as many votes. Hillary won the big important states, and yes, she did well with the Super-delegates. With or without the Super Delegates, she was going to win.

4. But if Biden needs the Super Delegates to beat Sanders in 2020, so be it. Biden is the more conservative candidate than Sanders, closer to the center. He is also closer to being a Reagan/Bush/McCain Republican than Trump is. Biden is a centrist. Most Americans are centrist. Trump and Sanders are NOT centrist.

Not much to disagree with in your post. The only major or potential flaw is that Biden can actually win the nomination. Here are a few comments to consider:
1. Will 2020 be the "changing of the guard"? Will the young progressives actually vote and beat the old guard? History says no, but we'll see who wins the delegates.
2. Thx, I wasn't sure who the minorities preferred. That's a big plus for Biden. Not sure if Kamala or Spartacus eats into that advantage?
3. Hillary won by cheating. The DNC did everything they could to help H and hurt Bernie.
4. The super-delegates may determine who win the nomination, but the dems wisely changed the rules to minimize their effect, we'll see. The convention should be a circus!!
Why the 2020 Democratic primary could turn into 'Lord of the Flies'

Hillary won by getting 54% of the primary vote to Sanders' 42%. By any math that I know, 54 beats 42. Do you have some kind of new math? Both the RNC and DNC had always had their favored candidates. The RNC and other Republicans chased Romney out of the race in 2016 to help Jeb Bush.

Super-delegates have never been a major factor. In theory, they could override the choice of voters however in practice that has never happened. In 2008, most
of the super-delegates backed Clinton. However as Obama won primaries and caucuses, they moved from Clinton to Obama.

 

[busybee01]

And the Republicans would never nominate Trump. Not that Biden needs Trumps magic situation from 2016, but just as the wide number of new candidates benefited Trump, so does the wide number of new candidates benefit Biden and to a lesser degree Sanders. It allows Biden and Sanders to win Primaries around the country by smaller margins and pick up large numbers of votes for the eventual nomination. The newbies can't get traction or money or what they do get is divided among so many people it amounts to nothing meaningful. Harris won't be able to win even her own state and she is in third place. Far behind in third place. If O'Rourke could go viral somehow he is really the only one that could challenge Sanders and Biden.

At the end of the day, Biden is more electable than Sanders because Biden is more of a centrist than Sanders. The most important thing to Democratic voters, as shown in polls, in 2020 is ELECTABILITY and NOT IDEOLOGY.

Finally, most Democrats simply want to get rid of Trump. With Biden as the nominee, there is simply no other option. Sitting at home and not voting is a vote for Trump. Voting third party is essentially a vote for Trump. If they want Trump gone, they will have to vote for the nominee, and right now that looks like its going to be Biden. The only one with the name, following, and strength to possibly prevent Biden from getting the nomination is Sanders.

But Sanders failed against Clinton and will likely fail against Biden for the same reasons. The closer you are to the center, the more electable you are in the race against Trump. Biden is closer to the center than Sanders.

Nice rationale', hope it works out for you. A Trump-Biden contest would be worth the price of admission!
More comments on your post:
1. The young progressives want a young candidate, so it looks like a generational battle, old folks vs young folks, 73% of dems want a "fresh face"
73% of Democrats Want ‘A Fresh Face’ As 2020 Nominee - Rasmussen Reports®
2. Not sure who the minority voters prefer? Can't find any polls?!
3. Sanders didn't "fail" against Clinton, the party (Brazille and Wasserman-Schultz) cheated Bernie out of the nomination, it all depends who the party tells the "super-delegates" to vote for. In 2020 to your point, that would be Joe Biden. So Bernie gets screwed again...

1. Young progressives usually don't decide who gets the nomination. Plus their a smaller group in the Democratic party and their divided among many different candidates with their support. This division aids Biden and Sanders.

2. Biden is preferred by minorities over Sanders. Sanders has always had a bit of a weakness with minorities.

3. Clinton won the nomination by any and every measure you look at. Sanders did well in the smaller and more rural states that did not have as many votes. Hillary won the big important states, and yes, she did well with the Super-delegates. With or without the Super Delegates, she was going to win.

4. But if Biden needs the Super Delegates to beat Sanders in 2020, so be it. Biden is the more conservative candidate than Sanders, closer to the center. He is also closer to being a Reagan/Bush/McCain Republican than Trump is. Biden is a centrist. Most Americans are centrist. Trump and Sanders are NOT centrist.

Not much to disagree with in your post. The only major or potential flaw is that Biden can actually win the nomination. Here are a few comments to consider:
1. Will 2020 be the "changing of the guard"? Will the young progressives actually vote and beat the old guard? History says no, but we'll see who wins the delegates.
2. Thx, I wasn't sure who the minorities preferred. That's a big plus for Biden. Not sure if Kamala or Spartacus eats into that advantage?
3. Hillary won by cheating. The DNC did everything they could to help H and hurt Bernie.
4. The super-delegates may determine who win the nomination, but the dems wisely changed the rules to minimize their effect, we'll see. The convention should be a circus!!
Why the 2020 Democratic primary could turn into 'Lord of the Flies'

If Biden were to lose the nomination, it would only be to Sanders. There are many Republicans like myself who will be registering as Democrats for 2020 so we can vote in Democratic primary's. That will change the party making the voting base more conservative.

Sanders weakness is that there are two to three times as many candidates for the nomination as there was in 2016. These new candidates tap into Sanders base of support from 2016. It weakens Sanders which means in strengthens Biden.

Time is running out on a break out candidate like O'Rourke to put up some decent polling numbers.

Essentially, Sanders and the other left leaning candidates split the progressive vote in the Democratic party allowing Biden to ride toward an easy win with a small plurality of the vote. Kind of like what Trump did in 2016 to the Republican Party. The anti-Trump vote in the Republican party was divided among many candidates allowing Trump to slip into the nomination with small plurality of the vote.

Only the 5 swing states matter

And trump has got them
Locked up and boxed in
With his politicies that benefits them

Democrats 269 Republicans 182

The swing states are Iowa, NC, Georgia, Florida, Arizona and Wisconsin. Some Republicans are saying Texas is a swing state.

The fact is that Trump's policies are opposed by a majority of voters.,

 

[busybee01]

1992 - Bill Clinton
1960 - John F Kennedy
1924 - Calvin Coolidge
1920 - Warren G. Harding
1908 - William Taft
1904 - Theodore Roosevelt
1900 - William McKinley
1896 - William McKinley
1888 - Benjamin Harrison
1880 - James Garfield
1868 - Ulysses Grant
1864 - Abraham Lincoln
1860 - Abraham Lincoln

Above are candidates that won the Presidential Election without winning Florida.

Trump only won Florida in 2016 by 113,000 votes, a little more than 1 percentage point. A small margin in the 3rd largest state. Since that time, many people from Puerto Rico have moved to Florida after the devastating hurricane that that killed nearly 3,000 people and Trumps poor response to it. These new Floridians from Puerto Rico won't be supporting Trump. They will probably tip the state toward whoever runs against Trump in 2020.

Trump stronger now in the 5 swing states because of the stampede of conservatives out of New York and California which makes those 5 swing states stronger for trump than in 2016

You and others have not shown any recent polling to indicate any of this. All of the recent polling shows Trump is in trouble against any of the Democratic candidates, nationally and in key states. The Polling shows that Biden is the biggest threat to Trump.

More like the polls show Democrats haven't learned a damn thing in the last 3 years.

Republicans, Democrats, the media, academics and researchers, all use polling to try to predict where the country is going and how to set up campaign strategy and where to send money. All of this polling data right now, shows that Trump is in trouble.

And what did the polling data show in 2016? Dumbass.

And what did the polling data show in 2018? Dumbass.

 

[busybee01]

Here is all the national polling data I could find on potential Trump vs. Biden race in 2020 starting from the latest poll going back in time.

February 16, 2019 - Emerson Poll - Biden 55% Trump 45% - Biden +10

January 22, 2019 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 41% - Biden +12

June 13, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 39% - Biden +14

March 27, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 56% Trump 39% - Biden +17

February 14, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 51% Trump 42% - Biden +9

January 23, 2018 - CNN Poll - Biden 57% Trump 40% - Biden +17

December 14, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

October 31, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 56% Trump 38% - Biden +18

October 16, 2017 - Emerson Poll - Biden 51% Trump 42% - Biden +9

September 28, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 40% - Biden +13

August 23, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 51% Trump 39% - Biden +12

July 18, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 39% - Biden +15

June 12, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 41% - Biden +13



May 16, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

April 20, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

March 30, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14


When you average the margin of victory in the 16 polls, Biden beats Trump on average by 13.5 points, just 6 points less from a total overwhelming landslide when it comes to electoral Presidential politics.

Trumps percentages in these head to head races, around 40%, match his average approval rating over the past two years in the GALLUP poll.

With 18 states not allowing Trump on the ballot, and forfeiting their electoral votes, Trump wins by all but 2-3 states, if that.

PS: What idiot the time to cook up this cockamaime bullshit?

Most of these are red states so it really doesn't matter.

 

[Thinker101]

Trump stronger now in the 5 swing states because of the stampede of conservatives out of New York and California which makes those 5 swing states stronger for trump than in 2016

You and others have not shown any recent polling to indicate any of this. All of the recent polling shows Trump is in trouble against any of the Democratic candidates, nationally and in key states. The Polling shows that Biden is the biggest threat to Trump.

More like the polls show Democrats haven't learned a damn thing in the last 3 years.

Republicans, Democrats, the media, academics and researchers, all use polling to try to predict where the country is going and how to set up campaign strategy and where to send money. All of this polling data right now, shows that Trump is in trouble.

And what did the polling data show in 2016? Dumbass.

And what did the polling data show in 2018? Dumbass.

No kidding, was there a presidential election in 2018? Dumbass.

 

[busybee01]

Well, then it will be Sanders. Sanders beats Trump in the polling as well, just not by the margins that Biden does.

Bottom line, Trump is not going to be re-elected. If you really want to pick the next President of the United States, you need to be voting in the Democratic Primary's.

Biden's problem is his record. And Obama prefers Booker, whose campaign has already lost to Harris. I'm a little leery of Harris appealing to working class whites in Wisc Mich and Pa, and the dems have to have all 3 unless they pull off a miracle in GA or NC, and maybe even that wouldn't be enough, and Harris is not winnign Oh, Iowa or Missouri

If Beto can win the same black vote that Sanders did ......

I like Harris and she would beat Trump, but she is not going to be the nominee. Its either Biden or Sanders with O'Rourke as a long shot.

Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are BLUE WALL states. Trump won them because Democrats did not spend enough campaign money and time defending them. In Wisconsin Trump got less votes than Mitt Romney did in 2012 when he lost the state by 7 percentage points. That shows Trump did not win the state in 2016 and that Democrats lost it. Too many Democratic voters stayed home and no significant numbers of them ever voted for Trump.

I agree Hillary couldn't get the vote out. Esp after Comey. But I'm not convinced the dems will easily recapture them, esp Wisc.

I'm not a big Harris fan. But the black vote controls the southern primaries, and she has CA in her pocket. Somebody will have to knock her out early.

And with Bernie, what's he going to say when Warren wants to break up Apple and Amazon? I just don't see that as a strategy that's gonna play in a general election.

Of course if the dems can somehow flip Oh or even NC and Ariz ...

Based on current polling their actually closer to flipping Texas then those states. The current polling shows that its a race between Biden and Sanders. Harris is a distant third.

I know but it's early. Basically, I think the dems problem is this. Biden's been wrong on Judges, Iraq-Syria, Taxes. I don't think Bernie is yet trusted by old southern blacks who came up in the 60s and 70s.

And to win the middle voters - Pa, Mich, and Wisc - they've got to be pro Trump econ and not Trump. An old white dude doing this?

Trump is wrong as well. Cheney recently said Trump's foreign policy resembles Obama's. People oppose the Republican tax cuts.

Republicans were buried in Pennsylvania and Michigan by female voters. In Wisconsin, Democrats beat Scott Walker and took several statewide offices easily. Foxconn is going to be a disaster in Wisconsin as they are not going to fulfill their promises and Republicans rigged it so the atate cannot end it's deal.

 

[busybee01]

You and others have not shown any recent polling to indicate any of this. All of the recent polling shows Trump is in trouble against any of the Democratic candidates, nationally and in key states. The Polling shows that Biden is the biggest threat to Trump.

More like the polls show Democrats haven't learned a damn thing in the last 3 years.

Republicans, Democrats, the media, academics and researchers, all use polling to try to predict where the country is going and how to set up campaign strategy and where to send money. All of this polling data right now, shows that Trump is in trouble.

And what did the polling data show in 2016? Dumbass.

And what did the polling data show in 2018? Dumbass.

No kidding, was there a presidential election in 2018? Dumbass.

The polls correctly predicted the Democrat takeover of the House. Dumbass.

 

[busybee01]

The polls between Biden and Trump reflect the fact that Trump after over 2 years in office only has an average approval rating of 40% in the Gallup poll. That is the worst average of any President in history. You don't win re-election when you average 40% in approval. The most recent Gallup poll has Trump at 39% approval, 57% disapproval.

What did the polls show in March of 2007? How accurate were they? Did it matter?

You missed this one. Yours were taken 3/2 - 3/10, the one you forgot is from 3/17 - 3/19.

Rasmussen Trump approval 48%, 52% disapproval. As you know too, Rasmussen was one of two polling companies to nail the 2016 election.

Rasmussen completely whiffed on the 2018 midterms.

2018 Generic Congressional Vote
Rasmussen Republicans 46% Democrats 45%
Actual Democrats 53% Republicans 45%

 

[Thinker101]

More like the polls show Democrats haven't learned a damn thing in the last 3 years.

Republicans, Democrats, the media, academics and researchers, all use polling to try to predict where the country is going and how to set up campaign strategy and where to send money. All of this polling data right now, shows that Trump is in trouble.

And what did the polling data show in 2016? Dumbass.

And what did the polling data show in 2018? Dumbass.

No kidding, was there a presidential election in 2018? Dumbass.

The polls correctly predicted the Democrat takeover of the House. Dumbass.

Once again:
No kidding, was there a presidential election in 2018? Dumbass.

 

[bendog]

Biden's problem is his record. And Obama prefers Booker, whose campaign has already lost to Harris. I'm a little leery of Harris appealing to working class whites in Wisc Mich and Pa, and the dems have to have all 3 unless they pull off a miracle in GA or NC, and maybe even that wouldn't be enough, and Harris is not winnign Oh, Iowa or Missouri

If Beto can win the same black vote that Sanders did ......

I like Harris and she would beat Trump, but she is not going to be the nominee. Its either Biden or Sanders with O'Rourke as a long shot.

Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are BLUE WALL states. Trump won them because Democrats did not spend enough campaign money and time defending them. In Wisconsin Trump got less votes than Mitt Romney did in 2012 when he lost the state by 7 percentage points. That shows Trump did not win the state in 2016 and that Democrats lost it. Too many Democratic voters stayed home and no significant numbers of them ever voted for Trump.

I agree Hillary couldn't get the vote out. Esp after Comey. But I'm not convinced the dems will easily recapture them, esp Wisc.

I'm not a big Harris fan. But the black vote controls the southern primaries, and she has CA in her pocket. Somebody will have to knock her out early.

And with Bernie, what's he going to say when Warren wants to break up Apple and Amazon? I just don't see that as a strategy that's gonna play in a general election.

Of course if the dems can somehow flip Oh or even NC and Ariz ...

Based on current polling their actually closer to flipping Texas then those states. The current polling shows that its a race between Biden and Sanders. Harris is a distant third.

I know but it's early. Basically, I think the dems problem is this. Biden's been wrong on Judges, Iraq-Syria, Taxes. I don't think Bernie is yet trusted by old southern blacks who came up in the 60s and 70s.

And to win the middle voters - Pa, Mich, and Wisc - they've got to be pro Trump econ and not Trump. An old white dude doing this?

Trump is wrong as well. Cheney recently said Trump's foreign policy resembles Obama's. People oppose the Republican tax cuts.

Republicans were buried in Pennsylvania and Michigan by female voters. In Wisconsin, Democrats beat Scott Walker and took several statewide offices easily. Foxconn is going to be a disaster in Wisconsin as they are not going to fulfill their promises and Republicans rigged it so the atate cannot end it's deal.

The dems ran train except in Senate races where Trump made "the mexs are coming for our stuff" the issue to get his base out .... in red states.

The question may be whether Talib and AOC work Hillary poison with female suburban voters.

 

[bendog]

Republicans, Democrats, the media, academics and researchers, all use polling to try to predict where the country is going and how to set up campaign strategy and where to send money. All of this polling data right now, shows that Trump is in trouble.

And what did the polling data show in 2016? Dumbass.

And what did the polling data show in 2018? Dumbass.

No kidding, was there a presidential election in 2018? Dumbass.

The polls correctly predicted the Democrat takeover of the House. Dumbass.

Once again:
No kidding, was there a presidential election in 2018? Dumbass.

dumbass, where Trump was the issue, the dems ran train.