When will Mosul fall, and what will we have accomplished?

[aaronleland]

Given the Iraqi's accomplishments it's not if Mosul will fall, but when. When do you think it will fall, and what will we have accomplished versus Daesh? What will the future hold?

My prediction is that it will fall either by this year or very early next year. There will be many years of insurgencies, but it will be the killing blow to ISIS. Their goal was a caliphate, but a caliphate requires territory. The moment the Syrians retake Raqqa the caliphate is dead. I think ISIS is in their death throes.

 

[Obiwan]

Good...

Then all those Syrian refugees can stay there where they're safe!!!

 

[aaronleland]

Good...

Then all those Syrian refugees can stay there where they're safe!!!

Won't happen. Their homes have been destroyed. There is nowhere to go.

 

[Obiwan]

Good...

Then all those Syrian refugees can stay there where they're safe!!!

Won't happen. Their homes have been destroyed. There is nowhere to go.

Rebuild...

Unless the worthless Democrats want to GIVE them a house here (at taxpayer expense)...

Or just move them in with Hillary... She has plenty of room!!!!

 

[aaronleland]

Good...

Then all those Syrian refugees can stay there where they're safe!!!

Won't happen. Their homes have been destroyed. There is nowhere to go.

Rebuild...

Unless the worthless Democrats want to GIVE them a house here (at taxpayer expense)...

Or just move them in with Hillary... She has plenty of room!!!!

The last party to bomb and rebuild at taxpayer's expense weren't Democrats.

 

[blackhawk]

What will happen is what always happens victory will be declared by the west the region will be ignored and ISIS will rebuild and rearm.

 

[Weatherman2020]

Good...

Then all those Syrian refugees can stay there where they're safe!!!

Won't happen. Their homes have been destroyed. There is nowhere to go.

Rebuild...

Unless the worthless Democrats want to GIVE them a house here (at taxpayer expense)...

Or just move them in with Hillary... She has plenty of room!!!!

The last party to bomb and rebuild at taxpayer's expense weren't Democrats.

Spending allocations are conducted by Congress.

 

[waltky]

Granny says, "Dat's right - just like it ain't war if we's defendin' sumbody...

State Dept. on Increasing Troops in Iraq: ‘It Ain’t Mission Creep if the Mission Ain’t Changing’
July 12, 2016 – State Department spokesman John Kirby on Monday rejected the notion that the further expansion of the U.S. troop footprint in Iraq amounts to “mission creep,” saying that the unchanged mission of the troops deployed there is training, advising and assisting Iraqi forces.

“It ain’t mission creep if the mission ain’t changing,” he told a daily briefing in response to a question. “And the mission’s not changing in Iraq with respect to what U.S. troops are doing in a train, advise, and assist capacity.” Earlier in the day Defense Secretary Ashton Carter during a visit to Baghdad announced the U.S. will deploy an additional 560 troops, in support of the Iraqi effort to retake the city of Mosul from the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS/ISIL). The authorized level now stands at around 4,600. Kirby said the latest deployment was decided upon in full consultation with the government of Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi. “All of our troops in Iraq are there at the invitation and the support of the Iraqi government,” he said. “That won’t change with this additional deployment.”

Iraqi forces in recent days captured a key airfield about 60 miles south of Mosul, which Carter said in Baghdad could now be used as “a logistics and air hub” for the Mosul offensive. “At every step in this campaign, we have generated and seized additional opportunities to hasten ISIL’s lasting defeat,” Carter said. “These additional U.S. forces will bring unique capabilities to the campaign and provide critical enabler support to Iraqi forces at a key moment in the fight.” In mid-2014, two-and-a-half years after President Obama oversaw the withdrawal of the last U.S. forces after an eight-year war launched by his predecessor, the jihadists of ISIS overran Mosul, Iraq’s second-largest city, prompting Obama to send up to 300 military advisers to help the Iraqis face the new threat.

Since then the number of U.S. troops on the ground has picked up steadily, with the administration stating repeatedly along the way that the mission was to “train, advise and assist,” – not a combat one:

--By July 2014, the number had doubled

--In August, a further 130 troops were deployed, taking the total to more than 700

--In September, the president authorized another 475 troops, pushing the new total to above 1,200

--By November, an additional authorization of 1,500 troops took the new total to more than 3,000

--In June 2015, another 450 troops were sent, raising the total to “up to 3,550 authorized across Iraq.”

--By March 2016, the Pentagon was speaking about a cap of 3,870 U.S. troops

--In April 2016, that cap was raised to 4,087, with the deployment of another 217 personnel, in support of Iraqi troops preparing for the battle for Mosul

--The new numbers announced by Carter on Monday takes the total authorized level to about 4,600.

Three U.S. personnel have been killed in action since Operation Inherent Resolve, the mission aimed at defeating ISIS, was launched. In Oct 2014, special forces Master Sgt. Joshua Wheeler was killed during a joint U.S.-Kurdish raid on an ISIS prison. In March this year, U.S. Marine Staff Sgt. Louis F. Cardin was killed when ISIS fighters struck a coalition base near Mosul And in May, Special Warfare Operator 1st Class Charlie Keating IV was killed when ISIS attacked a Kurdish peshmerga position close to the front line in northern Iraq. White House press secretary Josh Earnest said Keating had been “killed in combat” – but was “not in a combat mission.”

State Dept. on Increasing Troops in Iraq: ‘It Ain’t Mission Creep if the Mission Ain’t Changing’

 

[JimBowie1958]

Good...

Then all those Syrian refugees can stay there where they're safe!!!

Won't happen. Their homes have been destroyed. There is nowhere to go.

It is cheaper to set up tents over there than to bring the disease infested, ISIS infiltrated mob of aliens to our shores.

 

[JimBowie1958]

Given the Iraqi's accomplishments it's not if Mosul will fall, but when. When do you think it will fall, and what will we have accomplished versus Daesh? What will the future hold?

My prediction is that it will fall either by this year or very early next year. There will be many years of insurgencies, but it will be the killing blow to ISIS. Their goal was a caliphate, but a caliphate requires territory. The moment the Syrians retake Raqqa the caliphate is dead. I think ISIS is in their death throes.

Mosul will fall likely next year when we have a REAL President to engage the Enemy Islamic Jihadi Extremists.

 

[aaronleland]

Given the Iraqi's accomplishments it's not if Mosul will fall, but when. When do you think it will fall, and what will we have accomplished versus Daesh? What will the future hold?

My prediction is that it will fall either by this year or very early next year. There will be many years of insurgencies, but it will be the killing blow to ISIS. Their goal was a caliphate, but a caliphate requires territory. The moment the Syrians retake Raqqa the caliphate is dead. I think ISIS is in their death throes.

Mosul will fall likely next year when we have a REAL President to engage the Enemy Islamic Jihadi Extremists.

Don't be a hack, Jim. I know you're better than that. Say what you want about Obama's other policies, but his current strategy against ISIS is a good one. We won't have "boots on the ground" no matter who is President next year. Coalition airstrikes have brought their Caliphate ideas to a halt, and the Iraqi military is finally making advances. I predict Mosul will fall before Obama leaves office.

 

[JimBowie1958]

Don't be a hack, Jim. I know you're better than that.

I must warn you to never over estimate me, lol.

Say what you want about Obama's other policies, but his current strategy against ISIS is a good one. We won't have "boots on the ground" no matter who is President next year. Coalition airstrikes have brought their Caliphate ideas to a halt, and the Iraqi military is finally making advances. I predict Mosul will fall before Obama leaves office.

Obama has been trying to fight this war on the cheap. His air strikes against ISIS are about 1/20th that of Bush during the original invasion of Iraq.

While the number of air strikes launched has climbed, Only 25% of missions are cleared to hit the target (due to constraints on collateral damagemostly) and 40% of the air strike flights come back with no ordinance launched, , i.e. still fully loaded. So the number of flights vrs the number of actual completed missions is a 4 to 1 ratio; a lot of froth and fuel spent with near zero results to show for it all.

ISIS is being rolled back a little bit in Syria primarily due to Russian efforts and in Iraq due to Iranian efforts along with pro-Iranian Shiite militia being used as the secular government forces are afraid of dying in combat, a weakness the Shiite militias and ISIS fighters do not have. But every time a Shiite militia successfully retakes part of Iraq, the power and influence of Iran grows inside Iraq and if this continues Iraq will end up an Iranian puppet theocratic state, not good for the USA or Iraq. If the Saudis see no use in our ability to constrain Iran, their mortal enemy in the region, the Saudis might stop supporting the value of the US dollar by ending their restriction of all petroleum purchases to be made with US dollars. That would likely end up being catastrophic for the USA, via hyperinflation.

Mosul is a Sunni/Kurd area with Sunni Arab population in the city itself. An Iraqi government recapture of Mosul this year likely means that Shiite militia is going to be used and Iran gets control indirectly via its Quds force that is a huge direct connection to the Iraq militia from Iran. If we wait until a President comes into office that is willing to engage in a more dynamic effort using local Kurds, it will be much better for USA interests in the area, soothing to the Saudis, and improve the Iraqi governments ability to remain a secular government instead of a Shiite theocracy.

I dont think it will happen this year as I dont think that Shiite militias are all that willing to go north to Mosul and fight to liberate a Sunni city from ISIS.

 

[JimBowie1958]