Why are tax dollars being spent on efforts that have a 2/3rds chance of being wrong?

[healthmyths]

NASA Scientists Admit Only 38% Chance 2014 Was Hottest Year on Record -

However, that fact did not diminish the triumphal certitude of the temperature increase "fact" by many MSM outets such as the New York Times as chronicled by Newsbusters' Clay Waters or General Electric Vox which flat out declared, It's official: 2014 was the hottest year ever recorded.
Actually, a much more accurate Vox title would be,
"It's official: 62% chance 2014 not the hottest year ever recorded." Why?
Because the NASA scientists who were cited in the reports now claim they are only 38% sure which is another way of saying they were probably wrong.
NASA Scientists Admit Only 38 Chance 2014 Was Hottest Year on Record

So how do the astronauts feel of an organization they DEPEND on being 100% right when they sit on top of that rocket that it will NOT explode?
More importantly though how do we as tax payers feel that the National Aeronautics and Space Administration spends MONEY on these "hottest" studies when 2/3rds are wrong!

Sad... we have deteriorated so far that now EVEN NASA is suspected of fraud!

 

[rightwinger]

Third thread that highlights conservative deniers have no perception of how statistical data is reported

Must be number one on your Rightwing playbook this week

 

[Sonny Clark]

NASA Scientists Admit Only 38% Chance 2014 Was Hottest Year on Record -

However, that fact did not diminish the triumphal certitude of the temperature increase "fact" by many MSM outets such as the New York Times as chronicled by Newsbusters' Clay Waters or General Electric Vox which flat out declared, It's official: 2014 was the hottest year ever recorded.
Actually, a much more accurate Vox title would be,
"It's official: 62% chance 2014 not the hottest year ever recorded." Why?
Because the NASA scientists who were cited in the reports now claim they are only 38% sure which is another way of saying they were probably wrong.
NASA Scientists Admit Only 38 Chance 2014 Was Hottest Year on Record

So how do the astronauts feel of an organization they DEPEND on being 100% right when they sit on top of that rocket that it will NOT explode?
More importantly though how do we as tax payers feel that the National Aeronautics and Space Administration spends MONEY on these "hottest" studies when 2/3rds are wrong!

Sad... we have deteriorated so far that now EVEN NASA is suspected of fraud!

Never ever be surprised or shocked when you hear of the government wasting or giving away tax dollars. They waste and give away so much, that it's become routine and a habit. Yet, they borrow money each and every day just to keep the government running. Go figure.

 

[healthmyths]

Third thread that highlights conservative deniers have no perception of how statistical data is reported

Must be number one on your Rightwing playbook this week

Just trying to understand how an agency that people's lives depend on can make a statement that is 2/3rds wrong.
Do they make the same mistakes on their flight planning of rockets? So why did this become an issue?
I need you to explain to me why oil made from decaying plants is found in the Arctic.
I need you to explain how come 12% of the earth's land mass temperatures weren't included over the last 60 years.
I need to understand why NOAA took 600 temperature reading stations out of the gathering
Data from hundreds of weather stations located around the U.S. appear to show the planet is getting warmer, but some critics say it's the government's books that are getting cooked -- thanks to temperature readings from sweltering parking lots, airports and other locations that distort the true state of the climate.

Indeed, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has closed some 600 out of nearly 9,000 weather stations over the past two years that it has deemed problematic or unnecessary, after a long campaign by one critic highlighting the problem of using unreliable data. The agency says the closures will help improve gathering of weather data, but critics like meterologist and blogger Anthony Watts say it is too little, too late.
Distorted data Feds close 600 weather stations amid criticism they re situated to report warming Fox News

 

[rightwinger]

Statistical confidence is based on your sample size and measurement variables

Based on that you will have a mean temperature with plus and minus confidence

So, if 2014 has a 38 percent confidence it is the hottest on record
2002 has a 12 percent confidence it is the hottest on record
1993 has a 3 percent confidence it is the hottest on record

Guess which year gets reported as the hottest on record?

 

[healthmyths]

Antarctica ice growth... due to "global warming"???
For an unprecedented third year in a row, Antarctica's sea ice is poised to smash a new record this month.

The Southern Hemisphere's unrelenting winds and frigid air froze ocean water into 7.6 million square miles (19.7 million square kilometers) of Antarctic sea ice this southern winter, the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) said yesterday (Sept. 16).

With several more weeks of growth to go, Antarctica's sea-ice extent could soar well above the records set in 2012 and 2013. For now, only 88,800 square miles (230,000 square km) separate the 2013 and 2014 high marks. [Photo Gallery: Antarctica's Pine Island Glacier Cracks]
Antarctic ice at record-high growth Arctic continues to lose - CSMonitor.com

 

[healthmyths]

Statistical confidence is based on your sample size and measurement variables

Based on that you will have a mean temperature with plus and minus confidence

So, if 2014 has a 38 percent confidence it is the hottest on record
2002 has a 12 percent confidence it is the hottest on record
1993 has a 3 percent confidence it is the hottest on record

Guess which year gets reported as the hottest on record?

Again.. temperature readings before satellites were done by eye and written down by hand from reading stations located in areas where there was a population...
i.e.
"The number of [Siberian] stations increased from 8 in 1901 to 23 in 1951 and then decreased to 12 from 1989 to present only four (4) stations, those at Irkutsk, Bratsk, Chita and Kirensk, cover the entire 20th century.

IEA analysts say climatologists use the data of stations located in large populated centers that are influenced by the urban-warming effect more frequently than the correct data of remote stations…The scale of global warming was exaggerated due to temperature distortions for Russia accounting for 12.5% of the world’s land mass.
The IEA said it was necessary to recalculate all global-temperature data in order to assess the scale of such exaggeration.
Climategatekeeping Siberia Climate Audit

 

[healthmyths]

But not one of you global warming chicken littles can refute the above FACTS!

 

[rightwinger]

38% confidence it is the hottest on record does not mean 62% chance it is the coldest

It means 62% chance it may be the second or third hottest

 

[healthmyths]

38% confidence it is the hottest on record does not mean 62% chance it is the coldest

It means 62% chance it may be the second or third hottest

Explain this then..
NOAA NASA Dramatically Altered US Temperatures After The Year 2000 Real Science

 

[rightwinger]

38% confidence it is the hottest on record does not mean 62% chance it is the coldest

It means 62% chance it may be the second or third hottest

Explain this then..
NOAA NASA Dramatically Altered US Temperatures After The Year 2000 Real Science
View attachment 36027

The US is not the global climate

 

[healthmyths]

The claim made headlines around the world, but yesterday it emerged that GISS’s analysis – based on readings from more than 3,000 measuring stations worldwide – is subject to a margin of error. -
See more at: NASA Scientists Admit Only 38 Chance 2014 Was Hottest Year on Record

The basic GISS temperature analysis scheme was defined in the late 1970s by James Hansen when a method of estimating global temperature change was needed for comparison with one-dimensional global climate models.

Most prior temperature analyses, notably those of Murray Mitchell, covered only 20-90°N latitudes.
Our first published results (Hansen et al. 1981) showed that, contrary to impressions from northern latitudes, global cooling after 1940 was small, and there was net global warming of about 0.4°C between the 1880s and 1970s.

The analysis method was documented in Hansen and Lebedeff (1987), showing that the correlation of temperature change was reasonably strong for stations separated by up to 1200 km, especially at middle and high latitudes.
They obtained quantitative estimates of the error in annual and 5-year mean temperature change by sampling at station locations a spatially complete data set of a long run of a global climate model, which was shown to have realistic spatial and temporal variability.
Data.GISS GISS Surface Temperature Analysis GISTEMP

A) NASA temperatures statement based on ONLY 3,000 stations especially at middle and high latitudes.
B) Basing their assumptions of the last 30 years compared to data gathered from 1880s.
C) Most of the collected data BEFORE accurate satellite readings were done by humans in areas where they could get to reading stations using hard to read
thermometers to distinguish a 0.4°C difference? Hard to figure that out !

 

[healthmyths]

BUT USA is the major contributor to "global warming"!!!

 

[rightwinger]

You claim the NASA figures have a 2/3 chance of being wrong

But you fail to specify what wrong is. If it is not in fact the hottest, it would fall to second or third

Still qualifies as one of the hottest on record

Your using the fact that NASA is being honest in its statistical reporting as an indication of them being inept is laughable

 

[Soggy in NOLA]

Anybody still buying into global warming is a complete nutter.

 

[Soggy in NOLA]

38% confidence it is the hottest on record does not mean 62% chance it is the coldest

It means 62% chance it may be the second or third hottest

Oh brother...

 

[rightwinger]

Anybody still buying into global warming is a complete nutter.

97% of scientists concur as well as most of the world

It is Republicans who are nutters

 

[rightwinger]

38% confidence it is the hottest on record does not mean 62% chance it is the coldest

It means 62% chance it may be the second or third hottest

Oh brother...

And?

 

[Soggy in NOLA]

38% confidence it is the hottest on record does not mean 62% chance it is the coldest

It means 62% chance it may be the second or third hottest

Explain this then..
NOAA NASA Dramatically Altered US Temperatures After The Year 2000 Real Science
View attachment 36027

The US is not the global climate

Thanks Captain Obvious....

 

[Soggy in NOLA]

38% confidence it is the hottest on record does not mean 62% chance it is the coldest

It means 62% chance it may be the second or third hottest

Oh brother...

And?

And nothing.... GW is complete bullshit and has been debunked numerous times over. But hey... go for it Chicken Little!!!