Why did Prigozhin stop his coup?

[John Edgar Slow Horses]

JohnDB, the above is not new. It could be a host of things. Only time will tell.

 

[Calypso Jones]

Body Language – Putin, Wagner Aftermath

Note: All comments in my videos are strictly my opinion. Leave a comment

bombardsbodylanguage.com

left media and the left got ALL wee weed up as obama liked to say and what happened? LOL

 

[xyz]

There are some reports that his plane went from Rostov to St. Petersburg. There is a rumor that Putin's plane also went to St. Petersburg. Both when the coup was going on.

Then later a rumor that Prigozhin was seen at a hotel in Minsk, where the windows can't be opened. No pictures. This was before the Wagner plane landed in Minsk. But he was supposedly seen there after as well. Again, no photos.

Then his plane supposedly went from Minsk to Moscow.

Do I believe any of this? No, but there are clearly a lot of behind-the-scenes things going on.

 

[Ringo]

The first adequate explanation of Prigozhin's actions that I have read
-------------------
"There was no mutiny": Pinchuk told about Prigozhin's future
This opinion was expressed by the former head of the MSS of the DNR Andrei Pinchuk.
---
- What was Prigozhin's motivation for the mutiny?

- Anyone who knows Yevgeny Viktorovich personally or indirectly recognizes that Prigozhin has certain psychological traits. One element of these psychological peculiarities is what people call "I am not vindictive, I am just evil, but I have a good memory.

We just need to understand how Prigozhin, most likely, sees the picture related to his personal involvement and participation of the Wagner PMC in the events. I think this vision is very different from outside observers.

- What then happened in the paradigm of the Wagner PMC? How did they see what was happening?

- They were a successful paramilitary company, which performed commercial tasks that went to the interests of the Russian Federation - in Africa, Syria, Libya, Venezuela and other states.
At some point, as we now know, the state turned to them. I would like to point out that, according to open channels, Gerasimov personally approached Prigozhin as the head of the General Staff and asked him to take part in the SSO. "Wagner was initially involved in the battles for Popasna (LNR).

Thus, Prigozhin was called to a heroic war for the sake of Victory, in which he could get glory by performing his patriotic duty. In his system of coordinates of the patriotic businessman, who is focused on a specific result, everything was very concrete and clear. He was called to give a result, and this result was put into the piggy bank of the common Victory.
During a year and a half, what did Prigozhin see? The first thing is that no one is in too much of a hurry for Victory, as Prigozhin himself said. The situation is devolving into a state of ongoing process with non-guaranteed results.
The role of PMC Wagner in this process, stretched for years (as Prigozhin himself said), is not obvious. Instead of acting as a striking sprint fist, which yields results in the most important areas, the Wagner PMC became more and more an infantry unit, albeit a special one, but infantry and trench, and most importantly, trench.
Moreover - instead of saying thank you to them for this - they were becoming more and more like those who go around begging for something.
--
In Prigozhin's logic, this is very strange. If you've been called in and asked to put your shoulder up, what reason is there to go around begging for ammunition, making excuses, getting into squabbles and squabbles. In that sense, he considered himself cheated.

The next important aspect is the commercial component. Prigozhin is a businessman after all, and in addition to the patriotic component, he still understands that, first, he has to make money, and second, he has to support his army with this money. The current trench events do not present such a possibility, to put it mildly.

Moreover, he understood that after the conflict and squabbling over the capture of Bakhmut and the problem of the trenches, he was being set up more and more.
And the finale of these grievances and problems was the story of the contract. In businessman Prigozhin's logic, there was a pure raider takeover. When he was called in, his brainchild was put into roles that he did not originally agree to put into, and then they tried to intercept his brainchild through contracts with the Defense Ministry, leaving it somewhere on the back burner.
That is, in this logic, he was cheated on a number of positions. And they were deceived quite cruelly.
--
- And what is Prigozhin's "logic" way out of this situation?
- It is very simple. First, you have to go to the maxims. Or rather, not like that. First of all, you need to leave, because since people want to build their own political capital, make money, and fix certain social processes through the SVO, what does he have to do with all of this?
Acting as someone's paramilitary tool? What's the point of that? He didn't sign up for that.
Secondly, there are two people who have personally insulted him, firstly, and secondly, his brainchild - deceived him, and insulted him. These are Gerasimov and Shoigu.
And third, if we consider the international, commercial, military future, then we have to go out on the highest possible positive stakes, on an appropriate image. The capture of Bakhmut was such an image.
There is no doubt that if they had thrown Wagner further to the front - they would have thrown it into the most hopeless directions, and there is no guarantee that it would not have encountered problems with shells, problems with communication, and other difficulties, well-known to anyone who has been to this war at least occasionally on the front line.
Prigozhin, from his point of view, brilliantly accomplished the tasks of making a beautiful exit, of capitalizing on his image, and of striking a blow for revenge against his abusers.
*******

Capitalism. Nothing personal. Just business.

 

[xyz]

According to flight records, Prigozhin was just in Moscow and then flew to St. Petersburg, today or yesterday, something like that.

There is film of him too, although it's a guy wearing a medical mask, one time shows him getting in a helicopter.

 

[Silver Cat]

The bets are on.... 6 months would be my bet. Too soon and it's "too obvious"... for Putin.

My bet, that in six months there will be a "non-authorised" attack of the "absolutely uncontrollable by the Russian government bandit Wagner group" against more or less important logistic base in Poland and/or Lithuania.

 

[Silver Cat]

I knew I had seen that face before.

View attachment 798857
Prigozhin, Nosferatu

What about those two?

 

[John Edgar Slow Horses]

If Wagner attacks Poland or Latvia, NATO gets to take care of Belarus.

 

[krichton]

I was never sure it was actually meant to be a coup. From what I could understand, US Intel, and the civilian analysts on mainstream media did not know, either. My understanding, is Putin called President Lukashenko asking him to intervene and negotiate a truce, and now Prizgoshin after talks with the Belarus leader, has moved his camp to Belarus. I always thought Prizgoshin was a Russia patriot, at heart. But, he commands a Mercenary Army, one more effective than Putin's much larger military forces. I thought this was punishment for strikes by the Russian military on Prizgoshin's people. If you are a mercenary commander, you do not allow people, (even people you support) to purposely kill your people, without answering, some way, in kind. It would be a bad precedent as a leader, having been the only competent Russian fighting force on the battlefield, and bad for business around the world. I am surprised he didn't kill a general or two before retiring from the confrontation, but maybe 39 Russian Air force pilots and whatever other resistance met, was enough.

Mutiny in Russia is the highest form of patriotism.

 

[White 6]

Mutiny in Russia is the highest form of patriotism.

I get that.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

1. It wasn’t a coup
2. Wagner Group wants to end the war ASAP. That means pushing west
3. He was frustrated with the Generals running the show

 

[Silver Cat]

If Wagner attacks Poland or Latvia, NATO gets to take care of Belarus.

Yes, it was predictable, that's why there is nuclear weapons now. If regular Polish Army cross the border - Lukashenko use nukes against them (including their logistic and airbases in Poland). Anyway, Biden's Administration doesn't recognize Lukashenko as the President of Belarus, therefore - all those questions should be discussed with Tsikanouskaya.

 

[John Edgar Slow Horses]

Yes, it was predictable, that's why there is nuclear weapons now. If regular Polish Army cross the border - Lukashenko use nukes against them (including their logistic and airbases in Poland). Anyway, Biden's Administration doesn't recognize Lukashenko as the President of Belarus, therefore - all those questions should be discussed with Tsikanouskaya.

Lukashenko will be instructed by NATO to stand down or die. Since Russia will not take on NATO for him, he will stand down.

 

[Silver Cat]

Lukashenko will be instructed by NATO to stand down or die. Since Russia will not take on NATO for him, he will stand down.

Lukashenko is already declared as an outlaw by the NATO countries, and they already committed a number of attempts to overthrow him. So, he definitely will try to defend Belarus, as well as Russia will defend Belarus, too (especially will it's own bases and nukes there). And if Polish and American government are not responsible for the actions of American and Polish volontaires in Ukraine and Russia, why Belarusian government should be responsible for the actions of Russian mutineers in Poland?

 

[John Edgar Slow Horses]

Lukashenko is already declared as an outlaw by the NATO countries, and they already committed a number of attempts to overthrow him. So, he definitely will try to defend Belarus, as well as Russia will defend Belarus, too (especially will it's own bases and nukes there). And if Polish and American government are not responsible for the actions of American and Polish volontaires in Ukraine and Russia, why Belarusian government should be responsible for the actions of Russian mutineers in Poland?

He will negotiate to ensure the survival of himself and Belarus. Poland can take care of any Russians there in mutiny or at the bus stop.

 

[Litwin]

Belarus

Luka said that Belarus will annex your horde, do you support it ?

 

[Silver Cat]

He will negotiate to ensure the survival of himself and Belarus. Poland can take care of any Russians there in mutiny or at the bus stop.

And to improve his bargaining position he obviously will use both Russian nukes and Russian "mutineers ". Can Poland to stop the potential raid of, say, ten or twenty thousand of well trained "uncontrollable" daredevils with heavy equipment against, say, Rzeszów military base - it's a very big question.

 

[John Edgar Slow Horses]

That's a vvery unlikely scenario, Cat.

 

[Silver Cat]

That's a vvery unlikely scenario, Cat.

It's "escalation for de-escalation". It's highly likely scenario.

 

[AlexanderPK]

Speculation without solid facts.

Nobody really knows and Russia really is not telling....nor is Lukashenko (Belarus president) and Prigozhin hasn't been heard from.
Lots of Speculation and NO HARD evidence.

It never stopped you from making up bullshit before. What happened now?