Why t-potters are losing their elections

[Luddly Neddite]

Politicians Massively Overestimate Conservatism Of Constituents: Study

Politicians, especially conservative ones, massively overestimate the conservatism of their constituents on the issues of gay marriage and universal health care, an academic paper published Sunday has found.

David E. Broockman of the University of California at Berkeley and Christopher Skovron of the University of Michigan surveyed nearly 2,000 state legislative candidates in the 2012 election and asked them what percentage of their constituents they thought supported same-sex marriage, a universal health care system and abolishing all welfare programs.

The result was a vast conservative misperception. Constituents, on average, supported gay marriage and universal health care by 10 percentage points more than their politicians had estimated. For conservative politicians, the spread was around 20 percentage points, meaning that conservative legislators tend to greatly overestimate how conservative their constituents actually are.

http://www.ocf.berkeley.edu/~broockma/broockman_skovron_asymmetric_misperceptions.pdf

Not as many radical froot loops as the pubs seem to believe.