Will the Middle East Implode?

[Rikurzhen]

Don't mean to harp on this, but this is a graph of rice prices which was also part of the food riots in 2008.
You can use this site Rice 1981-2014 Data Chart Calendar Forecast News to look at historical prices of commodities. Search various and you'll see how global commodity prices exploded over time. The first series of food riots were in 2008, right at the time of the economic crash. Second round late 2010 and 2011 the start of the Arab Spring.

By the below graph using the year 2000 to begin.........in 2008 ending date and you can see the massive increase of the price of rice which started global food riots.

Is there an accurate method of determining how much of that rising cost of food was due to financial speculation?

At the end of the day someone has to eat the food that the speculators were speculating on, meaning that someone bought it. Meaning, that ultimately supply and demand was what determined the price. If speculators bid the price of wheat up to $100,000 per bushel, people will buy substitutes instead. The speculator who bought at $99,950 per bushel and was trying to offload at $100,000 is going to lose money, and so will those who buy his contract, up until the price per bushel reaches a level where a non-speculator will buy the wheat in order to use it.

Look at the site I posted and look at the prices and the spikes on the graph. If those spikes are caused by supply and demand in that short of time, then I have water front property to sell you in Arizona. Again, look at the Soy prices......

All the substitute prices exploded in price as well. Prompting food riots in the world and the arab spring. It is well documented to those that want to look.

But again, I'm not sure I want a full engagement on this topic because I'm not sure it goes off topic too much.

Speculating doesn't equal always making a profit on the speculation. Someone has to buy the food that is in the contract. If someone doesn't buy then the speculator loses money and the food underlying the contract gets bid down in price.

Look at the upward and downward slops on the big spike. Very time compressed. Some speculators made big profits, others lost big, some price increase got passed onto consumers because consumers were willing to buy at that price rather than substitute. What we did NOT see was consumer price mirroring the market price. This signals that other speculators took a bath. They bought thinking the price would go higher and then they couldn't offload to other suckers, so they rode the markets down until someone bought the contract.

 

[Rikurzhen]

I'm starting to believe a Pandora's Box was opened in the ME in 2003, and understanding where food prices are headed in that part of the world might provide some clues about how it will finally shake out. The topic of food prices is certainly germane to a thread on the implosion of the ME, as well.

Our involvement with Iraq simply popped the cork a bit sooner than it would have blown otherwise. All those dictatorship were keeping the corks in place but the pressure underneath the corks was building all the same.

 

[eagle1462010]

Don't mean to harp on this, but this is a graph of rice prices which was also part of the food riots in 2008.
You can use this site Rice 1981-2014 Data Chart Calendar Forecast News to look at historical prices of commodities. Search various and you'll see how global commodity prices exploded over time. The first series of food riots were in 2008, right at the time of the economic crash. Second round late 2010 and 2011 the start of the Arab Spring.

By the below graph using the year 2000 to begin.........in 2008 ending date and you can see the massive increase of the price of rice which started global food riots.

Is there an accurate method of determining how much of that rising cost of food was due to financial speculation?

At the end of the day someone has to eat the food that the speculators were speculating on, meaning that someone bought it. Meaning, that ultimately supply and demand was what determined the price. If speculators bid the price of wheat up to $100,000 per bushel, people will buy substitutes instead. The speculator who bought at $99,950 per bushel and was trying to offload at $100,000 is going to lose money, and so will those who buy his contract, up until the price per bushel reaches a level where a non-speculator will buy the wheat in order to use it.

Look at the site I posted and look at the prices and the spikes on the graph. If those spikes are caused by supply and demand in that short of time, then I have water front property to sell you in Arizona. Again, look at the Soy prices......

All the substitute prices exploded in price as well. Prompting food riots in the world and the arab spring. It is well documented to those that want to look.

But again, I'm not sure I want a full engagement on this topic because I'm not sure it goes off topic too much.

Speculating doesn't equal always making a profit on the speculation. Someone has to buy the food that is in the contract. If someone doesn't buy then the speculator loses money and the food underlying the contract gets bid down in price.

Look at the upward and downward slops on the big spike. Very time compressed. Some speculators made big profits, others lost big, some price increase got passed onto consumers because consumers were willing to buy at that price rather than substitute. What we did NOT see was consumer price mirroring the market price. This signals that other speculators took a bath. They bought thinking the price would go higher and then they couldn't offload to other suckers, so they rode the markets down until someone bought the contract.

That's all fine and dandy if you can eat the paper the stocks are printed on. In the mean time people who aren't in the markets see Rice prices triple and can't feed their kids in the areas where food riots went on. Again, the substitutes went sky high as well. What the hell are they going to substitute the food with............

The Arab Spring coincided with global Food Riots after massive spikes in prices. Even today the prices are triple what they were in 2000.

Let's just look at Central America and the immigration problem in association. Over 200 million people live on $2.50 a day. Those price spikes when that's all the money they have a day, are risking starvation for their kids. Which is why they are sending them to the United States. The problems in Africa are much worse.......Violence and radical elements all over the dang region...........

It is all connected. Brokers don't make money unless they make a lot of trades so they push up prices by volumes of trades.........Some may win and some may lose in this speculation........BUT THE TEMP PRICE SPIKES cause people to DIE in other parts of the world.

 

[georgephillip]

I'm starting to believe a Pandora's Box was opened in the ME in 2003, and understanding where food prices are headed in that part of the world might provide some clues about how it will finally shake out. The topic of food prices is certainly germane to a thread on the implosion of the ME, as well.

Our involvement with Iraq simply popped the cork a bit sooner than it would have blown otherwise. All those dictatorship were keeping the corks in place but the pressure underneath the corks was building all the same.

What's the end game, an arc of instability stretching from the eastern Mediterranean to the Caspian Sea?

 

[eagle1462010]

Ethanol Use Creates a Spike in Global Food Prices

Perhaps the most unexpected consequence of the policy has been its impact on worldwide food prices.

• The U.S. fuel industry relied heavily on corn ethanol to comply with the RFS requirements. The resulting demand drastically increased the price for corn globally, not just domestically.
• As corn prices skyrocketed, farmers switched to corn production from production of other cereals, which reduced the latter's supply. At the same time, consumers substituted less expensive rice and wheat for corn. This substitution increased demand and prices for wheat and rice, staple foods across many regions in Africa and Asia.
• Overall, the RFS program led to higher prices for staple foods all over the world. By some estimates, up to 70 percent to 75 percent of the increase in food prices was due to biofuels and the related consequences of low grain stocks, large land use shifts, speculative activity and export bans.
• The spike in food prices, coupled with the global economic crisis, halted and even reversed the long-time trend in reducing malnutrition.

Ethanol is another main culprit in this equation. Mass use of corn to turn to fuel has driven up food prices globally. If we stopped making Ethanol today, and used the corn for food it would be enough food to feed an additional 350 million people a year.

Growth rates in the world have declined. Yet there are roughly 80 million people a year added to the overall population of the planet.

Now, there are global droughts and overuse of rural crop lands turning them into dust bowls. All factoring into the world problem of feeding the planet. In areas like Somalia, which I've been to, you could use technology to make millions of gallons of water from the ocean to irrigate crops and make more soil fertile.........It would end the starvation of the people and increase food production in that country. That is if the radical elements wouldn't chop your head off for daring to step foot on their holier than thou soil.

 

[idb]

"In the opening chapter, Ayoob argues that the Arab Spring has added to existing tensions in the Middle East by introducing a high degree of uncertainty in key areas of regime-nature, intra-societal balances, and inter-state relationships throughout the region.

"This, he argues, has moved an already volatile Middle East towards not only greater instability but also towards a potentially combustible state of affairs.

"As such, Ayoob sets the tone for the rest of the book, which is very much marked by a realistic, if pessimistic, take on a post-Arab Spring Middle East in which an implosion capable of engulfing the region and in turn having destabilising effects on the international security and economy is a real prospect."

Book Review Will the Middle East Implode by Mohammed Ayoob LSE Review of Books

It's an interesting question...is security and stability more important than human rights?

Apparently, there are many Iraqis who wish Saddam had never crossed his masters in DC.

There are even Russians who pine for Stalin!

 

[Rikurzhen]

The Arab Spring coincided with global Food Riots after massive spikes in prices. Even today the prices are triple what they were in 2000.

The global population in 1999 (one year before your 2000 comparison) was 6 billion. In 2014 the global population is greater than 7.1 billion. There is greater global demand for food and so prices are expected to increase if there is not a commensurate increase in global food supply.

With 1.1 billion people added to the population over the last 15 years those people need to live somewhere, so land for housing needs to be repurposed from other uses, and this usually involves agricultural land near cities being bought and converted to residential property.

All that we need to focus on is the relationship between aggregate demand and aggregate supply. If we're not growing our production capacity as quickly as demand grows, then we're going to see price increases and rationing at the lowest end of the market.

As for what was going on during the food price spike:

Initial causes of the late-2006 price spikes included droughts in grain-producing nations and rising oil prices.[6] Oil price increases also caused general escalations in the costs of fertilizers, food transportation, and industrial agriculture. Root causes may be the increasing use of biofuels in developed countries (see also food vs fuel),[7] and an increasing demand for a more varied diet across the expanding middle-class populations of Asia.[8][9] These factors, coupled with falling world-food stockpiles all contributed to the worldwide rise in food prices.
​

With respect to the rice crisis:

Slayton argues that the price increases were a result of rising oil and petrochemical prices (peaking in July 2008); and export restrictions by a number of countries.[2] Trying to protect citizens from inflating rice prices due to growing oil costs, some national governments, namely India and Vietnam, began restricting export of rice.[3][4] Partly because of increasing wheat prices, the Indian government decided to increase the percentage of rice (over wheat) in its food distribution programs.[1] To help secure food security, India (the source of more than 10% of world rice trade) stopped all non-Basmati exports in October 2007, lifting the ban temporarily, then re-applying it in April 2008.[2] and some retailers began rationing sales, due to fears of insufficient global supplies of the grain. Vietnam, fearing shortages due to a cold wave on the Red River Delta in mid-January 2008, banned sales to international rice traders.[2] Both of these cases caused a steady increase in prices during the first months of 2008. Other countries, including Egypt and Pakistan,[1] as well as Brazil[5] followed by placing their own restrictions on rice exports, helping to drive up the price even further. In late April 2008, rice prices hit 24 cents a pound, twice the price that it was seven months earlier.[6]

Six years of drought in Australia's rice-growing regions may also have encouraged people to fear a reduction in global rice supplies, and helped cause the commensurate rise in global prices​

Let's just look at Central America and the immigration problem in association. Over 200 million people live on $2.50 a day. Those price spikes when that's all the money they have a day, are risking starvation for their kids. Which is why they are sending them to the United States. The problems in Africa are much worse.......Violence and radical elements all over the dang region...........

Is the above supposed to be for my benefit? I made note of this very point in my first comment and you agreed with me. I didn't forget this in the last few minutes

It is all connected. Brokers don't make money unless they make a lot of trades so they push up prices by volumes of trades.........Some may win and some may lose in this speculation........BUT THE TEMP PRICE SPIKES cause people to DIE in other parts of the world.

My point here is very narrow. The full brunt of that price spike wasn't felt by the food markets, a lot was borne by speculators who were on the losing end of trades - they bought high and sold low. My second point was that this food spike wasn't entirely the result of speculation. Always, Always, the market forces are in play.

I'm not disputing the hardships that fell on people, that was my point from the get-go.

 

[eagle1462010]

The Arab Spring coincided with global Food Riots after massive spikes in prices. Even today the prices are triple what they were in 2000.

The global population in 1999 (one year before your 2000 comparison) was 6 billion. In 2014 the global population is greater than 7.1 billion. There is greater global demand for food and so prices are expected to increase if there is not a commensurate increase in global food supply.

With 1.1 billion people added to the population over the last 15 years those people need to live somewhere, so land for housing needs to be repurposed from other uses, and this usually involves agricultural land near cities being bought and converted to residential property.

All that we need to focus on is the relationship between aggregate demand and aggregate supply. If we're not growing our production capacity as quickly as demand grows, then we're going to see price increases and rationing at the lowest end of the market.

As for what was going on during the food price spike:

Initial causes of the late-2006 price spikes included droughts in grain-producing nations and rising oil prices.[6] Oil price increases also caused general escalations in the costs of fertilizers, food transportation, and industrial agriculture. Root causes may be the increasing use of biofuels in developed countries (see also food vs fuel),[7] and an increasing demand for a more varied diet across the expanding middle-class populations of Asia.[8][9] These factors, coupled with falling world-food stockpiles all contributed to the worldwide rise in food prices.
​

With respect to the rice crisis:

Slayton argues that the price increases were a result of rising oil and petrochemical prices (peaking in July 2008); and export restrictions by a number of countries.[2] Trying to protect citizens from inflating rice prices due to growing oil costs, some national governments, namely India and Vietnam, began restricting export of rice.[3][4] Partly because of increasing wheat prices, the Indian government decided to increase the percentage of rice (over wheat) in its food distribution programs.[1] To help secure food security, India (the source of more than 10% of world rice trade) stopped all non-Basmati exports in October 2007, lifting the ban temporarily, then re-applying it in April 2008.[2] and some retailers began rationing sales, due to fears of insufficient global supplies of the grain. Vietnam, fearing shortages due to a cold wave on the Red River Delta in mid-January 2008, banned sales to international rice traders.[2] Both of these cases caused a steady increase in prices during the first months of 2008. Other countries, including Egypt and Pakistan,[1] as well as Brazil[5] followed by placing their own restrictions on rice exports, helping to drive up the price even further. In late April 2008, rice prices hit 24 cents a pound, twice the price that it was seven months earlier.[6]

Six years of drought in Australia's rice-growing regions may also have encouraged people to fear a reduction in global rice supplies, and helped cause the commensurate rise in global prices​

Let's just look at Central America and the immigration problem in association. Over 200 million people live on $2.50 a day. Those price spikes when that's all the money they have a day, are risking starvation for their kids. Which is why they are sending them to the United States. The problems in Africa are much worse.......Violence and radical elements all over the dang region...........

Is the above supposed to be for my benefit? I made note of this very point in my first comment and you agreed with me. I didn't forget this in the last few minutes

It is all connected. Brokers don't make money unless they make a lot of trades so they push up prices by volumes of trades.........Some may win and some may lose in this speculation........BUT THE TEMP PRICE SPIKES cause people to DIE in other parts of the world.

My point here is very narrow. The full brunt of that price spike wasn't felt by the food markets, a lot was borne by speculators who were on the losing end of trades - they bought high and sold low. My second point was that this food spike wasn't entirely the result of speculation. Always, Always, the market forces are in play.

I'm not disputing the hardships that fell on people, that was my point from the get-go.

In my other posts I pointed out much of the same. I showed data and mentioned the growing population in post 25.

There are many factors in the prices, and all coincide with massive spike in prices ending in the food riots of 2008 and 2011. Speculation did play a part in all of this. As did other major factors such as increased Ethanol or Maize consumption to fuel, increases in shipping costs due to rising fuel prices, population increases, water shortages, and overuse of agricultural land creating dust bowls in places like China.

Either way, the Arab Spring main roots were food prices, riots, with spreading instability and civil strife. That is what caused the spread of violence in the region egged on by the Radicals who used the situation to their advantage.

 

[eagle1462010]

Commodity trading volume history at this site.

Historical Data

Year CommodityHead Traded Contracts (in Lots) SegmentName 2004 WHEAT 3097 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS 2005 WHEAT 24689 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS 2006 WHEAT 92548 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS 2007 WHEAT 337 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS 2009 WHEAT 86862 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS 2010 WHEAT 4676 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS 2011 WHEAT 192 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS 2012 WHEAT 2 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS [TBODY] [/TBODY] [TBODY] [/TBODY]

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

This chart is lot trades per year for wheat. You may choose other commodities for the same time period. From 2004 to 2005 volume of lot trades went from 3097 to 24,689 then a year later 92,548.

Tell me this isn't speculation through mass trading..............

 

[eagle1462010]

Rice..........via quantity of trades.

Year CommodityHead Quantity(In 000's) Unit SegmentName 2004 RICE 320 KGS AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS 2005 RICE 92430 KGS AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS 2006 RICE 395500 KGS AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS [TBODY] [/TBODY] [TBODY] [/TBODY]

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Rikurzhen]

Commodity trading volume history at this site.

Historical Data

Year CommodityHead Traded Contracts (in Lots) SegmentName 2004 WHEAT 3097 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS 2005 WHEAT 24689 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS 2006 WHEAT 92548 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS 2007 WHEAT 337 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS 2009 WHEAT 86862 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS 2010 WHEAT 4676 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS 2011 WHEAT 192 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS 2012 WHEAT 2 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS [TBODY] [/TBODY] [TBODY] [/TBODY]

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

This chart is lot trades per year for wheat. You may choose other commodities for the same time period. From 2004 to 2005 volume of lot trades went from 3097 to 24,689 then a year later 92,548.

Tell me this isn't speculation through mass trading..............

Volume of trades doesn't matter. It would matter only if each trader made a profit before selling to the next trader, etc until the final buyer actually took delivery of the wheat. To the final buyer, if doesn't matter if the price of wheat went from $X with the first speculator and reached a high of $20x before falling back down to $X when he took delivery of the wheat. The market has to clear. Speculators don't take home with them the 100,000 bushels that they took ownership of at the expiry of their contract.

 

[eagle1462010]

Commodity trading volume history at this site.

Historical Data

Year CommodityHead Traded Contracts (in Lots) SegmentName 2004 WHEAT 3097 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS 2005 WHEAT 24689 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS 2006 WHEAT 92548 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS 2007 WHEAT 337 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS 2009 WHEAT 86862 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS 2010 WHEAT 4676 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS 2011 WHEAT 192 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS 2012 WHEAT 2 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS [TBODY] [/TBODY] [TBODY] [/TBODY]

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

This chart is lot trades per year for wheat. You may choose other commodities for the same time period. From 2004 to 2005 volume of lot trades went from 3097 to 24,689 then a year later 92,548.

Tell me this isn't speculation through mass trading..............

Volume of trades doesn't matter. It would matter only if each trader made a profit before selling to the next trader, etc until the final buyer actually took delivery of the wheat. To the final buyer, if doesn't matter if the price of wheat went from $X with the first speculator and reached a high of $20x before falling back down to $X when he took delivery of the wheat. The market has to clear. Speculators don't take home with them the 100,000 bushels that they took ownership of at the expiry of their contract.

So you are saying that this massive increase in the trading volumes of wheat didn't effect prices in the world...................We'll have to disagree on that one if you are saying that.

Value of agricultural trades same time period.

Year Value (Rs. In Lakhs) SegmentName 2003 209.18 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS 2004 675696.40 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS 2005 9943685.16 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS 2006 16958988.12 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS 2007 10588403.27 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS 2008 5416681.49 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS 2009 6644950.56 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS 2010 9506241.20 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS 2011 14591559.47 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS 2012 28746998.88 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS 1 2 [TBODY] [/TBODY] [TBODY] [/TBODY] [TBODY] [/TBODY]

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

The value of agricultural commodities went postal and remain extremely high. How did we jump from 209 to 675,696 in one year?????????????

 

[Sally]

Ethanol Use Creates a Spike in Global Food Prices

Perhaps the most unexpected consequence of the policy has been its impact on worldwide food prices.

• The U.S. fuel industry relied heavily on corn ethanol to comply with the RFS requirements. The resulting demand drastically increased the price for corn globally, not just domestically.
• As corn prices skyrocketed, farmers switched to corn production from production of other cereals, which reduced the latter's supply. At the same time, consumers substituted less expensive rice and wheat for corn. This substitution increased demand and prices for wheat and rice, staple foods across many regions in Africa and Asia.
• Overall, the RFS program led to higher prices for staple foods all over the world. By some estimates, up to 70 percent to 75 percent of the increase in food prices was due to biofuels and the related consequences of low grain stocks, large land use shifts, speculative activity and export bans.
• The spike in food prices, coupled with the global economic crisis, halted and even reversed the long-time trend in reducing malnutrition.

Ethanol is another main culprit in this equation. Mass use of corn to turn to fuel has driven up food prices globally. If we stopped making Ethanol today, and used the corn for food it would be enough food to feed an additional 350 million people a year.

Growth rates in the world have declined. Yet there are roughly 80 million people a year added to the overall population of the planet.

Now, there are global droughts and overuse of rural crop lands turning them into dust bowls. All factoring into the world problem of feeding the planet. In areas like Somalia, which I've been to, you could use technology to make millions of gallons of water from the ocean to irrigate crops and make more soil fertile.........It would end the starvation of the people and increase food production in that country. That is if the radical elements wouldn't chop your head off for daring to step foot on their holier than thou soil.

 

[Sally]

Ethanol Use Creates a Spike in Global Food Prices

Perhaps the most unexpected consequence of the policy has been its impact on worldwide food prices.

• The U.S. fuel industry relied heavily on corn ethanol to comply with the RFS requirements. The resulting demand drastically increased the price for corn globally, not just domestically.
• As corn prices skyrocketed, farmers switched to corn production from production of other cereals, which reduced the latter's supply. At the same time, consumers substituted less expensive rice and wheat for corn. This substitution increased demand and prices for wheat and rice, staple foods across many regions in Africa and Asia.
• Overall, the RFS program led to higher prices for staple foods all over the world. By some estimates, up to 70 percent to 75 percent of the increase in food prices was due to biofuels and the related consequences of low grain stocks, large land use shifts, speculative activity and export bans.
• The spike in food prices, coupled with the global economic crisis, halted and even reversed the long-time trend in reducing malnutrition.

Ethanol is another main culprit in this equation. Mass use of corn to turn to fuel has driven up food prices globally. If we stopped making Ethanol today, and used the corn for food it would be enough food to feed an additional 350 million people a year.

Growth rates in the world have declined. Yet there are roughly 80 million people a year added to the overall population of the planet.

Now, there are global droughts and overuse of rural crop lands turning them into dust bowls. All factoring into the world problem of feeding the planet. In areas like Somalia, which I've been to, you could use technology to make millions of gallons of water from the ocean to irrigate crops and make more soil fertile.........It would end the starvation of the people and increase food production in that country. That is if the radical elements wouldn't chop your head off for daring to step foot on their holier than thou soil.

Thank you both for your thought-provoking posts. The Los Angeles Times had a good article which covered some of what you two were writing about. Here is part 3 of a 5-part series.

Global hunger persists as the world s population grows - LA Times

 

[Phoenall]

Have the events of the past twenty-three years set in motion a chain of events that will lead to an implosion of today's Middle East? If so, was that the plan all along?

"Will the Middle East Implode? comprises four substantive chapters, each tackling what Michigan State University Distinguished Professor of International Relations Mohammed Ayoob identifies as sources of potential combustion in the region: the growing role of political Islam; the Israel-Palestine conflict; increased rivalry between regional powers alongside great power involvement in the region; and, Iran’s quest for nuclear capability."

Book Review Will the Middle East Implode by Mohammed Ayoob LSE Review of Books

This has been going on for the last 1400 years as each Islamic faction tries to get the upper hand so that they can run the caliphate. It as all to do with world domination and power over the illiterate masses through the mosques and madrassas

 

[Youch]

Have the events of the past twenty-three years set in motion a chain of events that will lead to an implosion of today's Middle East? If so, was that the plan all along?

"Will the Middle East Implode? comprises four substantive chapters, each tackling what Michigan State University Distinguished Professor of International Relations Mohammed Ayoob identifies as sources of potential combustion in the region: the growing role of political Islam; the Israel-Palestine conflict; increased rivalry between regional powers alongside great power involvement in the region; and, Iran’s quest for nuclear capability."

Book Review Will the Middle East Implode by Mohammed Ayoob LSE Review of Books

No, it will explode. It is inevitable.

 

[Phoenall]

Don't mean to harp on this, but this is a graph of rice prices which was also part of the food riots in 2008.
You can use this site Rice 1981-2014 Data Chart Calendar Forecast News to look at historical prices of commodities. Search various and you'll see how global commodity prices exploded over time. The first series of food riots were in 2008, right at the time of the economic crash. Second round late 2010 and 2011 the start of the Arab Spring.

By the below graph using the year 2000 to begin.........in 2008 ending date and you can see the massive increase of the price of rice which started global food riots.

Is there an accurate method of determining how much of that rising cost of food was due to financial speculation?

There is an accurate measure of how the rising price of arab oil caused the rising cost of food prices, until BIO fuel started to be used and then the price of oil came down. This is the arab's greatest fear to lose their oil revenues and ultimately to lose their power.

 

[georgephillip]

"In the opening chapter, Ayoob argues that the Arab Spring has added to existing tensions in the Middle East by introducing a high degree of uncertainty in key areas of regime-nature, intra-societal balances, and inter-state relationships throughout the region.

"This, he argues, has moved an already volatile Middle East towards not only greater instability but also towards a potentially combustible state of affairs.

"As such, Ayoob sets the tone for the rest of the book, which is very much marked by a realistic, if pessimistic, take on a post-Arab Spring Middle East in which an implosion capable of engulfing the region and in turn having destabilising effects on the international security and economy is a real prospect."

Book Review Will the Middle East Implode by Mohammed Ayoob LSE Review of Books

It's an interesting question...is security and stability more important than human rights?

Apparently, there are many Iraqis who wish Saddam had never crossed his masters in DC.

There are even Russians who pine for Stalin!

There aren't too many Russians planning a move to Baghdad.

 

[georgephillip]

Have the events of the past twenty-three years set in motion a chain of events that will lead to an implosion of today's Middle East? If so, was that the plan all along?

"Will the Middle East Implode? comprises four substantive chapters, each tackling what Michigan State University Distinguished Professor of International Relations Mohammed Ayoob identifies as sources of potential combustion in the region: the growing role of political Islam; the Israel-Palestine conflict; increased rivalry between regional powers alongside great power involvement in the region; and, Iran’s quest for nuclear capability."

Book Review Will the Middle East Implode by Mohammed Ayoob LSE Review of Books

This has been going on for the last 1400 years as each Islamic faction tries to get the upper hand so that they can run the caliphate. It as all to do with world domination and power over the illiterate masses through the mosques and madrassas

Point to a time between the end of WWII and the US Invasion of Iraq when Sunni and Shite within a single nation state were killing each other as regularly as they are today in Iraq and Syria; the US wants control of oil and gas flows from the ME and Caspian basin and it doesn't care how many Muslims die in the process.

 

[eagle1462010]

Don't mean to harp on this, but this is a graph of rice prices which was also part of the food riots in 2008.
You can use this site Rice 1981-2014 Data Chart Calendar Forecast News to look at historical prices of commodities. Search various and you'll see how global commodity prices exploded over time. The first series of food riots were in 2008, right at the time of the economic crash. Second round late 2010 and 2011 the start of the Arab Spring.

By the below graph using the year 2000 to begin.........in 2008 ending date and you can see the massive increase of the price of rice which started global food riots.

Is there an accurate method of determining how much of that rising cost of food was due to financial speculation?

There is an accurate measure of how the rising price of arab oil caused the rising cost of food prices, until BIO fuel started to be used and then the price of oil came down. This is the arab's greatest fear to lose their oil revenues and ultimately to lose their power.

Bio fuels like Ethanol are spiking feed and food prices globally. The only reason it doesn't spike fuel prices is Goberment subsidies........It uses 143 Metric Tons of Maize......Corn.........a year........It doesn't change the environment as it takes energy and pollution to produce. It still damages carbs in small engines..........

It is part of the major reason for the large price increases since 2000. It, as I've already said, could feed about 350 million people if we ended it.