2013 sea ice thread!!!

[gslack]

Arctic shipping quadruples in past year as global warming melts sea ice.
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The Financial Times reports that, as of Friday, 204 ships had received permits this year to ply the Northern Sea Route, which connects East Asia to Europe via the waters off of Russia’s northern coast. Last year, just 46 vessels made the trip. Two years ago, the number was four.
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ROFL, you warmers don't read for comprehension do you..

listen carefully... 204 ships received permits.. That means 204 ships got permits that's it...

last year 46 vessels MADE THE TRIP...

once more

46 vessels MADE THE TRIP...

in other words we don't know how many got permits that didn't make the trip for whatever reason.. Reasons like; maybe the ice wasn't clear enough? Or perhaps it grew back quicker than expected? Or hell maybe the ice didn't recede like the prediction claimed...

 

[mamooth]

Russia Moves to Promote Northeast Passage through Arctic Ocean - SPIEGEL ONLINE

Right now, you have to pay the Russians, put a Russian pilot on board and convoy up with an icebreaker. But more ships are signing on. Lack of any piracy in the arctic is a plus.

Oh, the 4 guys in a big rowboat trying to row the northwest passage are giving up halfway. It's not ice that stopped them, it's exhaustion. The never-ending wind and waves were too much, and they spent much of their time on shore waiting for storms to blow over.

 

[westwall]

The yellow is the ice extent last year. The red is what is missing this year. The green is what has been added THIS YEAR a 66% INCREASE.....

 

[westwall]

Russia Moves to Promote Northeast Passage through Arctic Ocean - SPIEGEL ONLINE

Right now, you have to pay the Russians, put a Russian pilot on board and convoy up with an icebreaker. But more ships are signing on. Lack of any piracy in the arctic is a plus.

Oh, the 4 guys in a big rowboat trying to row the northwest passage are giving up halfway. It's not ice that stopped them, it's exhaustion. The never-ending wind and waves were too much, and they spent much of their time on shore waiting for storms to blow over.

Oh, you need an ICEBREAKER to make the voyage.....That's kind of funny. They were able to make the trip back in the late 1800's WITHOUT an icebreaker and with wooden sailing ships.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

The yellow is the ice extent last year. The red is what is missing this year. The green is what has been added THIS YEAR a 66% INCREASE.....

Um, yeah, just as predicted by Mann's tree rings

 

[mamooth]

Oh, you need an ICEBREAKER to make the voyage.....That's kind of funny. They were able to make the trip back in the late 1800's WITHOUT an icebreaker and with wooden sailing ships.

You're still fibbing about Kara Sea trips being full northeast passages? Give it a rest. You can't mangle reality to that extent and not expect to be called on it.

So, the government of Russia and all the shipping companies of the world ... or a couple of deranged political cultists. Gee, who to believe. Let me think about that.

 

[westwall]

Oh, you need an ICEBREAKER to make the voyage.....That's kind of funny. They were able to make the trip back in the late 1800's WITHOUT an icebreaker and with wooden sailing ships.

You're still fibbing about Kara Sea trips being full northeast passages? Give it a rest. You can't mangle reality to that extent and not expect to be called on it.

So, the government of Russia and all the shipping companies of the world ... or a couple of deranged political cultists. Gee, who to believe. Let me think about that.

Gosh, you're pretty poorly read aren't you? I was thinking of the Vega expedition actually. You know the one that transited the entire distance from 1878 to 1880? That one.

You should read about it.

 

[mamooth]

So it (the Vega expedition) takes 2 years because it gets frozen in, and you compare that to the current mostly ice-free conditions? Don't hurt yourself with that stretch. I mean, last I checked, two weeks is faster than two years.

But even if it had gotten through in one, that in no way changes the fact that the current low-ice conditions are unprecedented. I await to see what new deflections you'll now bring up.

 

[Old Rocks]

Russia Moves to Promote Northeast Passage through Arctic Ocean - SPIEGEL ONLINE

Right now, you have to pay the Russians, put a Russian pilot on board and convoy up with an icebreaker. But more ships are signing on. Lack of any piracy in the arctic is a plus.

Oh, the 4 guys in a big rowboat trying to row the northwest passage are giving up halfway. It's not ice that stopped them, it's exhaustion. The never-ending wind and waves were too much, and they spent much of their time on shore waiting for storms to blow over.

Oh, you need an ICEBREAKER to make the voyage.....That's kind of funny. They were able to make the trip back in the late 1800's WITHOUT an icebreaker and with wooden sailing ships.

Really? Care to post some links?


Roald Amundsen - First to Navigate Northwest Passage


Roald Amundsen: Navigates Northwest Passage
Roald Amundsen (1872-1928) of Norway was the first person to successfully navigate the fabled Northwest Passage.

His journey took three years to complete - he and his crew had to wait while the frozen sea around them thawed enough to allow for navigation.

His little 47 ton fishing boat, Gjøa (pronounced "y-eu-a") was finally able to leave his Arctic base at Gjøahaven (today - Gjoa Haven, Nunavut), and on August 26, 1905 he and his 6-man crew encountered a ship bearing down on them from the west. They were through the Northwest Passage!

Amundsen was fascinated with polar exploration (as a youth, he slept with the windows open during frigid Norwegian winters to condition himself) and he took pride in being referred to as "the last of the Vikings". He was also the first person to reach the South Pole (1911), and one of the first (with Umberto Nobile and Lincoln Ellsworth) to fly over the North Pole in a dirigible (1926

 

[westwall]

So it (the Vega expedition) takes 2 years because it gets frozen in, and you compare that to the current mostly ice-free conditions? Don't hurt yourself with that stretch. I mean, last I checked, two weeks is faster than two years.

But even if it had gotten through in one, that in no way changes the fact that the current low-ice conditions are unprecedented. I await to see what new deflections you'll now bring up.

Mostly free? With modern steel hulled ships and engines producing 50,000 shaft horsepower and they STILL need to use an icebreaker? You're a certified halfwit aren't you!

 

[westwall]

Russia Moves to Promote Northeast Passage through Arctic Ocean - SPIEGEL ONLINE

Right now, you have to pay the Russians, put a Russian pilot on board and convoy up with an icebreaker. But more ships are signing on. Lack of any piracy in the arctic is a plus.

Oh, the 4 guys in a big rowboat trying to row the northwest passage are giving up halfway. It's not ice that stopped them, it's exhaustion. The never-ending wind and waves were too much, and they spent much of their time on shore waiting for storms to blow over.

Oh, you need an ICEBREAKER to make the voyage.....That's kind of funny. They were able to make the trip back in the late 1800's WITHOUT an icebreaker and with wooden sailing ships.

Really? Care to post some links?


Roald Amundsen - First to Navigate Northwest Passage


Roald Amundsen: Navigates Northwest Passage
Roald Amundsen (1872-1928) of Norway was the first person to successfully navigate the fabled Northwest Passage.

His journey took three years to complete - he and his crew had to wait while the frozen sea around them thawed enough to allow for navigation.

His little 47 ton fishing boat, Gjøa (pronounced "y-eu-a") was finally able to leave his Arctic base at Gjøahaven (today - Gjoa Haven, Nunavut), and on August 26, 1905 he and his 6-man crew encountered a ship bearing down on them from the west. They were through the Northwest Passage!

Amundsen was fascinated with polar exploration (as a youth, he slept with the windows open during frigid Norwegian winters to condition himself) and he took pride in being referred to as "the last of the Vikings". He was also the first person to reach the South Pole (1911), and one of the first (with Umberto Nobile and Lincoln Ellsworth) to fly over the North Pole in a dirigible (1926

What, you didn't read mammy's post? Didn't check his link? Here's a passage for you oltrakartrollingorogenicblunderfraudman.


"Still, the eastern part of the sea route remains hazardous, even during the summer months. Weather forecasts are unreliable, and ice and fog command the full attention of crews. The NSRA generally requires ship captains to be accompanied by seasoned Arctic skippers while traversing the eastern section. Furthermore, many ships still need an icebreaker escort in the summer. Russia operates six nuclear-powered icebreakers, and a seventh ship is currently being built."

Not all ships require an icebreaker, some have hardened bows so they are able to break their own way...but they are the exception...

 

[mamooth]

Mostly free?

Yep. You could do this crazy thing called "looking at the data". I know, new experiences scare you, but give it a try. Because that shows it almost ice free, just that one spot by Severnaya Zemlya, hence the icebreaker.

What's also new this year is that, yes, the north pole _did_ melt. Not totally, but for the first time ever, a partial melt. See that green over the north pole? That's never happened before, half of the north pole ice gone. It's not just a melt pond. It's completely unlike a lead temporarily opening up so a sub can poke through, which wouldn't have made a pixel on the this map.

 

[westwall]

Mostly free?

Yep. You could do this crazy thing called "looking at the data". I know, new experiences scare you, but give it a try. Because that shows it almost ice free, just that one spot by Severnaya Zemlya, hence the icebreaker.

What's also new this year is that, yes, the north pole _did_ melt. Not totally, but for the first time ever, a partial melt. See that green over the north pole? That's never happened before, half of the north pole ice gone. It's not just a melt pond. It's completely unlike a lead temporarily opening up so a sub can poke through, which wouldn't have made a pixel on the this map.

Yes, let's look at the data shall we? Seems that the Arctic has iced up much more rapidly than your experts predicted....color me unsurprised... And 22 yachts (who's owners listened to said experts) are now stuck in the ice.

"The Northwest Passage after decades of so-called global warming has a dramatic 60% more Arctic ice this year than at the same time last year. The future dreams of dozens of adventurous sailors are now threatened. A scattering of yachts attempting the legendary Passage are caught by the ice, which has now become blocked at both ends and the transit season may be ending early. Douglas Pohl tells the story:"

Sail-World.com : North West Passage blocked with ice - yachts caught

 

[mamooth]

Seems that the Arctic has iced up much more rapidly than your experts predicted....color me unsurprised...

Color me unsurprised that you keep repeating that lie. You know, the "all the experts predicted" lie that you use so much everywhere. But then, it's for the glory of your cult, so the lie is okay, right?

I see you don't want to talk about the northeast passage any longer. Probably for the best. Just go back to your "It's not a new record low this year, so it's all a fraud" line of nonsense.

 

[westwall]

Seems that the Arctic has iced up much more rapidly than your experts predicted....color me unsurprised...

Color me unsurprised that you keep repeating that lie. You know, the "all the experts predicted" lie that you use so much everywhere. But then, it's for the glory of your cult, so the lie is okay, right?

I see you don't want to talk about the northeast passage any longer. Probably for the best. Just go back to your "It's not a new record low this year, so it's all a fraud" line of nonsense.

Man, you really are stupid aren't you.... The point, for the intellectually challenged such as yourself, is the yachtsmen wouldn't have made the attempt if they hadn't listened to your experts telling them that they would be A-OK. Get it?

And for the record, why on Earth would I need to lie? You guys do it all the time and run and hide when you are invariably caught. Why bother talking about the NE Passage, it's been around for decades dating back to the Soviet era. It's the NW passage that has you clowns all hot and bothered and here it is closing on you TOO DAMNED EARLY for you to spew your propaganda... so sad for you!

 

[flacaltenn]

Mostly free?

Yep. You could do this crazy thing called "looking at the data". I know, new experiences scare you, but give it a try. Because that shows it almost ice free, just that one spot by Severnaya Zemlya, hence the icebreaker.

What's also new this year is that, yes, the north pole _did_ melt. Not totally, but for the first time ever, a partial melt. See that green over the north pole? That's never happened before, half of the north pole ice gone. It's not just a melt pond. It's completely unlike a lead temporarily opening up so a sub can poke through, which wouldn't have made a pixel on the this map.

Yes, let's look at the data shall we? Seems that the Arctic has iced up much more rapidly than your experts predicted....color me unsurprised... And 22 yachts (who's owners listened to said experts) are now stuck in the ice.

"The Northwest Passage after decades of so-called global warming has a dramatic 60% more Arctic ice this year than at the same time last year. The future dreams of dozens of adventurous sailors are now threatened. A scattering of yachts attempting the legendary Passage are caught by the ice, which has now become blocked at both ends and the transit season may be ending early. Douglas Pohl tells the story:"

Sail-World.com : North West Passage blocked with ice - yachts caught

Would make a good plot for a made-for-TV movie.. Complete with Cannibalism and fighting off hungry Polar Bears...

Probably would beat "The Day After Tomorrow" in the ratings..

 

[westwall]

Yep. You could do this crazy thing called "looking at the data". I know, new experiences scare you, but give it a try. Because that shows it almost ice free, just that one spot by Severnaya Zemlya, hence the icebreaker.

What's also new this year is that, yes, the north pole _did_ melt. Not totally, but for the first time ever, a partial melt. See that green over the north pole? That's never happened before, half of the north pole ice gone. It's not just a melt pond. It's completely unlike a lead temporarily opening up so a sub can poke through, which wouldn't have made a pixel on the this map.

Yes, let's look at the data shall we? Seems that the Arctic has iced up much more rapidly than your experts predicted....color me unsurprised... And 22 yachts (who's owners listened to said experts) are now stuck in the ice.

"The Northwest Passage after decades of so-called global warming has a dramatic 60% more Arctic ice this year than at the same time last year. The future dreams of dozens of adventurous sailors are now threatened. A scattering of yachts attempting the legendary Passage are caught by the ice, which has now become blocked at both ends and the transit season may be ending early. Douglas Pohl tells the story:"

Sail-World.com : North West Passage blocked with ice - yachts caught

Would make a good plot for a made-for-TV movie.. Complete with Cannibalism and fighting off hungry Polar Bears...

Probably would beat "The Day After Tomorrow" in the ratings..

Pretty much ANYTHING would beat that turd of a movie...

 

[itfitzme]

Excerpts from the AR5 WGI 2013 Final Draft Report.

http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WGIAR5_WGI-12Doc2b_FinalDraft_Chapter11.pdf

It is very likely that there will be further shrinking and thinning of Arctic sea ice cover, and decreases
of northern high-latitude spring time snow cover and near surface permafrost (see glossary) as global
mean surface temperature rises. For high greenhouse gas emissions such as those corresponding to
RCP8.5, a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean (sea ice extent less than 1 × 106 km2 ) in September is likely before
mid-century (medium confidence). This assessment is based on a subset of models that most closely
reproduce the climatological mean state and 1979 to 2012 trend of Arctic sea ice cover. There is low
confidence in projected near-term decreases in the Antarctic sea ice extent and volume.

Just so we are clear on what really is predicted.

 

[itfitzme]

Seems that the Arctic has iced up much more rapidly than your experts predicted....color me unsurprised...

Yeah, you're going to have to produce something concrete to back up this bs. Just intuitively, I doubt that there have been any predictions regarding the Arctic icing up. At least from my long view, it seems the thrust of predictions is a steady decline over the long term without any confidence in terms of short term variability. Short term variability predictions just don't make sense.

I am asking you to prove my intuition wrong here. It would be great to see actual short term predictions. That would be fun.

Here is the 2007 prediction

Sea ice is projected to shrink in both the Arctic and Antarctic under all SRES scenarios. In some projections, arctic late-summer sea ice disappears almost entirely by the latter part of the 21st century. {10.3}

Contraction of the Greenland Ice Sheet is projected to continue to contribute to sea level rise after 2100. Current models suggest that ice mass losses increase with temperature more rapidly than gains due to precipitation and that the surface mass balance becomes negative at a global average warming (relative to pre-industrial values) in excess of 1.9°C to 4.6°C. If a negative surface mass balance were sustained for millennia, that would lead to virtually complete elimination of the Greenland Ice Sheet and a resulting contribution to sea level rise of about 7 m. The corresponding future temperatures in Greenland are comparable to those inferred for the last interglacial period 125,000 years ago, when palaeoclimatic information suggests reductions of polar land ice extent and 4 to 6 m of sea level rise. {6.4, 10.7}
Dynamical processes related to ice flow not included in current models but suggested by recent observations could increase the vulnerability of the ice sheets to warming, increasing future sea level rise. Understanding of these processes is limited and there is no consensus on their magnitude. {4.6, 10.7}
Current global model studies project that the Antarctic Ice Sheet will remain too cold for widespread surface melting and is expected to gain in mass due to increased snowfall. However, net loss of ice mass could occur if dynamical ice discharge dominates the ice sheet mass balance. {10.7}

http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/spmsspm-projections-of.html

So, I don't see this supposed prediction.....color me unsurprised.

Here is a reported expecation from one

"I was expecting that this year would be higher than last year," said Walt Meier, a glaciologist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. "There is always a tendency to have an uptick after an extreme low; in our satellite data, the Arctic sea ice has never set record low minimums in consecutive years." This year's rebound from 2012 does not disagree with this downward trend and is not a surprise to scientists.

http://phys.org/news/2013-09-arctic-sea-ice-sixth-lowest.html

So that would be icing up more, not less.

 

[itfitzme]