2016 Election Prediction Thread

[AceRothstein]

Hillary wins the Presidency.
Democrats re-take the Senate.
Republicans keep the House with small gains made by the Dems.

We re-live 2011-2015 until the 2018 elections when the Republicans re-take the Senate again.

 

[AceRothstein]

Rand Paul will get the nomination. Even he has less baggage than Scott Walker besides, Walker just looks fucking creepy.

Rand Paul doesn't look creepy?

He is going nowhere if it is up to normal people.

I can't figure out who of Paul and Walker is the creepier. Cruz has both beat though.

 

[Sarah G]

Rand Paul will get the nomination. Even he has less baggage than Scott Walker besides, Walker just looks fucking creepy.

Rand Paul doesn't look creepy?

He is going nowhere if it is up to normal people.

Have you ever seen a Walker speech, the way he turns his head back and forth? I half expect him to do a 360 one day.

I think the Repubs want Rand, he's won some straw polls. One in Iowa and one at CPAC.

 

[JakeStarkey]

I always get under your skin Jake, but it is an easy thing to do. It's kinda cute that when you get cornered you get agitated and start lying. Jeb may get shoved down our throats by the Party but he won't win because us "real conservatives" won't vote for him../...and you Party folk cannot win with out us

You always project your angst and upset when you get shut down let you did last night. Yep, Jeb will be our GoP candidate, and there is nothing you can do that will interfere with his election as president. Tough to be you far right thugs, but it goes with the terrain, buddy.

 

[Roadrunner]

Rand Paul will get the nomination. Even he has less baggage than Scott Walker besides, Walker just looks fucking creepy.

Rand Paul doesn't look creepy?

He is going nowhere if it is up to normal people.

Have you ever seen a Walker speech, the way he turns his head back and forth? I half expect him to do a 360 one day.

I think the Repubs want Rand, he's won some straw polls. One in Iowa and one at CPAC.

Straw polls mean nothing.

If they did, Ron Paul would be President.

Neither Paul ever will be, as to most sane people, it is obvious the fruit does not fall far from the nut tree.

 

[RKMBrown]

Rand Paul will get the nomination. Even he has less baggage than Scott Walker besides, Walker just looks fucking creepy.

It will be Rubio.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Yes, it is possible, far more possible, Rubio or Paul than Cruz.

 

[RKMBrown]

Yes, it is possible, far more possible, Rubio or Paul than Cruz.

Agreed. Cruz is an ass. If I'm voting it's for Rubio.

If I'm betting, it's for Christie.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Yes, it is possible, far more possible, Rubio or Paul than Cruz.

Agreed. Cruz is an ass. If I'm voting it's for Rubio.

If I'm betting, it's for Christie.

May be. Christie does not have the org of a Bush but he can access lots of money.

 

[Toro]

This guy - whoever he is - predicts that Ted Cruz will become the President.

He WILL mop the floor with whoever.

 

[Toro]

If Cruz gets the nomination he won't be facing Hillary. She's not gonna be the nominee, she's being torpedoed by Obama.

 

[Antares]

I always get under your skin Jake, but it is an easy thing to do. It's kinda cute that when you get cornered you get agitated and start lying. Jeb may get shoved down our throats by the Party but he won't win because us "real conservatives" won't vote for him../...and you Party folk cannot win with out us

You always project your angst and upset when you get shut down let you did last night. Yep, Jeb will be our GoP candidate, and there is nothing you can do that will interfere with his election as president. Tough to be you far right thugs, but it goes with the terrain, buddy.

(smile) Jakey it's the internet I don't get angry I have fun.

You?
I live under your skin Jakey, I have from my first day here years ago

Now Jeb may well get shoved down our throats but you'll watch us sit at home like we did with McCain and that means your fucked

 

[Toro]

I SOOO look forward to your post election whine.

 

[JakeStarkey]

"Now Jeb may well get shoved down our throats but you'll watch us sit at home like we did with McCain and that means your fucked " and you will find out that will not happen. McCain lost because the economy went haywire three weeks to early for him, not you lamesters not voting for him.

You are my punching bag and always will as long as you are on the Board.

You were reminded of that again last night. Tis what is, roo.

 

[FA_Q2]

Rand Paul will get the nomination. Even he has less baggage than Scott Walker besides, Walker just looks fucking creepy.

Rand has no chance of winning either. He has played to the base too often to take the center.

Walker is a better candidate than Rand. Christie might be as well but will not take the primaries. I don't think he can win there and you need to be able to take the primaries to get anywhere.

 

[FA_Q2]

Yes, it is possible, far more possible, Rubio or Paul than Cruz.

Rubio I see as a possibility. Lots on the right do not like him for his immigration policy but they will swallow him to avoid Bush. I think this will be similar to 2012 when the party was looking for anyone but Romney. Now it will be anyone but Bush. It will at least be interesting to see if it takes the same rout as last time and Bush takes the nomination. I don't see that as happening because there will be a better selection of candidates this time around. I mean really, who gave Bachmann a spot on the stage...

 

[HenryBHough]

I just can't imagine any of them in the R field as president. I can see Hillary handling that job, she'd hit the ground running. All the rest would need a learning curve.

I can see Hillary how Hillary might "hit the ground" but not running, just stumbling as usual. Half the world looks on in pity; 1/3 laughs; 1/3 are Democrats who think she's just joining Obama in facing Mecca and......

 

[Toro]

[

And when Hillary wins on election night 2016 with 57% of the NPV and sails over 400 EV, I will just laugh at you.

 

[Skylar]

Yes, it is possible, far more possible, Rubio or Paul than Cruz.

Rubio I see as a possibility. Lots on the right do not like him for his immigration policy but they will swallow him to avoid Bush. I think this will be similar to 2012 when the party was looking for anyone but Romney. Now it will be anyone but Bush. It will at least be interesting to see if it takes the same rout as last time and Bush takes the nomination. I don't see that as happening because there will be a better selection of candidates this time around. I mean really, who gave Bachmann a spot on the stage...

I suspect Rubio will be in play this election season. I don't see him making much progress personally toward the presidency. He lacks the name recognition, party backing, and experience to likely be a credible candidate. Obama lacked all these things. But I think we can agree his 2008 victory was improbable. Rubio is hamstrung by a fiercely conservative voting record. Which doesn't help outside the GOP primaries with a much more moderate electorate.

Rubio on the other hand would make an excellent VP pick for a GOP candidate that was from outside of Florida. Kasich, for example, could use Rubio to shore up both his support among Latinos and to help in Florida. Both hugely advantageous for a GOP candidate.

The GOP is also doing an excellent job in cultivating its AAA team, with plenty of future leaders in their pipeline. (They're doing this much better than democrats, that have traded unity in the face of GOP election wins for cultivation of new leaders....but that's another discussion). Rubio is one such future leader. And a VP slot would put him in an excellent position to win the presidency himself in 2024. As it resolves 3 of the 4 factors working against him, granting experience, name recognition and party backing.

And Rubio, unlike Cruz, has made major in roads with the Latino community. I'd argue his a viable member of that communities conservative political spectrum. Cruz isn't part of that community at all despite his father being Cuban. Rubio's connection to the Latino community could help him in the long term. And act as a method of the GOP bringing Latinos into the conservative fold.

I see that as unlikely, as the GOP's focus on minorities tends to be opportunistic and anecdotal. But its better than if they picked just another white guy.

 

[Skylar]

As an aside, I'm interested in exploring the dymanics of party control (unity) v. comparative chaos in cultivating future leaders. I'd argue that the GOP's current internal strife is actually enhancing their crop of potential leaders, creating some real competition and chances for B list players to shine. Where different visions and different messages allowing for plenty of face time of its up and coming politicians. What they pay for this strife is ineffectiveness, as they can't reliably bring the votes of the members of their own party.

The Democrats are having the opposite problem. They've had excellent unity over the last 4 years. And have been able to use that unity to nullify any electoral advantage the fractured GOP might have, resulting in a veritable stalemate. But this was done through adherence to a rigid hierarchy with folks like Pelosi holding portions of the party together. The cost to this unity is that it doesn't allow up and coming democratic leaders to get much face time or make much progress in advancing different messages. At least not as much as the GOP 'thunderdome' scenario.

The results are a presently ineffective but potentially vital future GOP. And an presently effective but potentially stagnant future DNC.

This is a theory in progress, and I'd like to discuss it. I haven't formed any really firm opinions yet.