Any reason to believe any polling data?

[healthmyths]

So we've seen several polls showing Hillary trumping Trump royally!

Clinton and her running mate, Sen. Tim Kaine (Va.), now lead Trump and his running mate, Gov. Mike Pence (Ind.), by 50 percent to 42 percent among registered voters, double the four-point advantage the Democrats held on the eve of the Republican convention in mid-July. Among likely voters, the Democratic nominee leads by 51 percent to 44 percent.

BUT most people reading that poll don't go to the last page and see this:
10% MORE Democrats then GOP in the poll! So naturally she will be ahead.
But this is the only example of this gross misrepresentation of people being polled!
The Post-ABC poll was conducted Monday to Thursday among a random national sample of 1,002 adults interviewed on cellular and landline phones.
33% or 330 Democrats...... 23% or 230 GOP......... 36% or 360 Independent.

A clear lead for Clinton after the conventions - The Washington Post


Currently, 46% of registered voters support Clinton and 34% back Trump, with 7% supporting Libertarian Gary Johnson, and 2% backing Jill Stein of the Green Party.

Monmouth University
But go to the last page of the report...

26% or 215 GOP --- 39% or 298 independent --- 35% or 282 Democrat.

Again... tell me that the pollsters/MSM aren't biased!

 

[MarcATL]

So we've seen several polls showing Hillary trumping Trump royally!

Clinton and her running mate, Sen. Tim Kaine (Va.), now lead Trump and his running mate, Gov. Mike Pence (Ind.), by 50 percent to 42 percent among registered voters, double the four-point advantage the Democrats held on the eve of the Republican convention in mid-July. Among likely voters, the Democratic nominee leads by 51 percent to 44 percent.

BUT most people reading that poll don't go to the last page and see this:
10% MORE Democrats then GOP in the poll! So naturally she will be ahead.
But this is the only example of this gross misrepresentation of people being polled!
The Post-ABC poll was conducted Monday to Thursday among a random national sample of 1,002 adults interviewed on cellular and landline phones.
33% or 330 Democrats...... 23% or 230 GOP......... 36% or 360 Independent.
View attachment 85033

A clear lead for Clinton after the conventions - The Washington Post


Currently, 46% of registered voters support Clinton and 34% back Trump, with 7% supporting Libertarian Gary Johnson, and 2% backing Jill Stein of the Green Party.

Monmouth University
But go to the last page of the report...

26% or 215 GOP --- 39% or 298 independent --- 35% or 282 Democrat.

Again... tell me that the pollsters/MSM aren't biased!

To answer the OP question in the title of this thread...if you're based in reality, you believe the polls.

Simple.

 

[healthmyths]

So we've seen several polls showing Hillary trumping Trump royally!

Clinton and her running mate, Sen. Tim Kaine (Va.), now lead Trump and his running mate, Gov. Mike Pence (Ind.), by 50 percent to 42 percent among registered voters, double the four-point advantage the Democrats held on the eve of the Republican convention in mid-July. Among likely voters, the Democratic nominee leads by 51 percent to 44 percent.

BUT most people reading that poll don't go to the last page and see this:
10% MORE Democrats then GOP in the poll! So naturally she will be ahead.
But this is the only example of this gross misrepresentation of people being polled!
The Post-ABC poll was conducted Monday to Thursday among a random national sample of 1,002 adults interviewed on cellular and landline phones.
33% or 330 Democrats...... 23% or 230 GOP......... 36% or 360 Independent.
View attachment 85033

A clear lead for Clinton after the conventions - The Washington Post


Currently, 46% of registered voters support Clinton and 34% back Trump, with 7% supporting Libertarian Gary Johnson, and 2% backing Jill Stein of the Green Party.

Monmouth University
But go to the last page of the report...

26% or 215 GOP --- 39% or 298 independent --- 35% or 282 Democrat.

Again... tell me that the pollsters/MSM aren't biased!

To answer the OP question in the title of this thread...if you're based in reality, you believe the polls.

Simple.

So the reality is we should DISCOUNT the poll results by 10% as there were more Democrats then GOP giving their preferences.
Which is what I'm pointing out. The MSM/Pollsters are stacking the numbers!

 

[mamooth]

So the reality is we should DISCOUNT the poll results by 10% as there were more Democrats then GOP giving their preferences.

Given that there are more Democrats than Republicans, that's exactly what you'd expect.

Polls don't seek out a certain percentage of Democrats or Republicans. They choose people randomly, then ask them their affiliation. If they come up with more Democrats, it's because more people said they were Democrats.

 

[AceRothstein]

So we've seen several polls showing Hillary trumping Trump royally!

Clinton and her running mate, Sen. Tim Kaine (Va.), now lead Trump and his running mate, Gov. Mike Pence (Ind.), by 50 percent to 42 percent among registered voters, double the four-point advantage the Democrats held on the eve of the Republican convention in mid-July. Among likely voters, the Democratic nominee leads by 51 percent to 44 percent.

BUT most people reading that poll don't go to the last page and see this:
10% MORE Democrats then GOP in the poll! So naturally she will be ahead.
But this is the only example of this gross misrepresentation of people being polled!
The Post-ABC poll was conducted Monday to Thursday among a random national sample of 1,002 adults interviewed on cellular and landline phones.
33% or 330 Democrats...... 23% or 230 GOP......... 36% or 360 Independent.
View attachment 85033

A clear lead for Clinton after the conventions - The Washington Post


Currently, 46% of registered voters support Clinton and 34% back Trump, with 7% supporting Libertarian Gary Johnson, and 2% backing Jill Stein of the Green Party.

Monmouth University
But go to the last page of the report...

26% or 215 GOP --- 39% or 298 independent --- 35% or 282 Democrat.

Again... tell me that the pollsters/MSM aren't biased!

To answer the OP question in the title of this thread...if you're based in reality, you believe the polls.

Simple.

So the reality is we should DISCOUNT the poll results by 10% as there were more Democrats then GOP giving their preferences.
Which is what I'm pointing out. The MSM/Pollsters are stacking the numbers!

They aren't stacking the numbers, there are more Democrats than there are Republicans. You guys said the same shit 4 years and were wrong then too.

 

[Auld Phart]

The only poll to believe is the one taken on the first Tuesday in November

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

To answer the OP question in the title of this thread...if you're based in reality, you believe the polls.

Simple.

funny

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

Anyone Remember UnSkewed Polls [.] Com? I do.
Very Interesting

Hillary Clinton 87.6% chance of wining versus Donald Trump 12.3% chance of winning
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

The Polls Aren’t Skewed: Trump Really Is Losing Badly

We’ve reached that stage of the campaign. The back-to-school commercials are on the air, and the “unskewing” of polls has begun — the quadrennial exercise in which partisans simply adjust the polls to get results more to their liking, usually with a thin sheen of math-y words to make it all sound like rigorous analysis instead of magical thinking.

If any of this sounds familiar — and if I sound a little exasperated — it’s probably because we went through this four years ago. Remember UnSkewedPolls.com? (The website is defunct, but you can view an archived picture of it here.) ( UnSkewed Polls -- erasing the bias to show an accurate picture of politics )

The main contention of that site and others like it was that the polls had too many Democratic respondents in their samples. Dean Chambers, who ran the site, regularly wrote that the polls were vastly undercounting independents and should have used a higher proportion of Republicans in their samples. But in the end, the polls underestimatedPresident Obama’s margin.

Now the unskewers are back, again insisting that pollsters are “using” more Democrats than they should...

 

[G.T.]

Omg this has been asked and answered so many times.

 

[AceRothstein]

Oh look, the OP created the same exact thread in 2012. The conservative echo chamber is eating away at your brain cells.

A recent poll by Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted July 19-22/2012
Credibility Ratings for Most News Organizations.

I'm not going to present the biased poll results BUT want to know why the poll had:
384 independents, 286 Democrats and 239 Republicans, or 909 surveyed.

Now this is what many critics of polls are recently saying plain common sense would mean that by NOT having an equal number of Democrats/GOP /Independents you are biasing the results!

It is a FACT Independents LEAN more Democrat (17%) VS Independents LEAN GOP (13%)!
So of the 384 Independents 65 would lean Democrat or NOW a total of 286 Democrats PLUS Dem leaning Independents = total of 351 Demos.
Leaving GOP leaning Indes of 31 added to 239 GOP or a total of 270 GOP PLUS GOP leaning Indes equals 270 that would be GOP!

So in this poll of credibility 351 are Democrats/leaning Indes... AND the biased MSM leans Democrat.. THEN the Dems will have a higher
credibility of news by already biased Dems.

Common sense would say if almost 10% more responses came from Demo/leaning Independents THE RESULTS ARE SKEWED!!!!!


almost two-thirds of those who call themselves independent lean to either the Democratic or Republican Party.
This leaves no more than one in five American voters completely unattached to a party.
Independent Lean Democrat 17%
Independent Lean GOP 13%
Strong Democrat 18%
Not strong Democrat 12%
Independent, lean Democrat 17%
Independent, not lean 20%
Independent, lean Republican 13%
Not strong Republican 8%
Strong Republican 13%
Independent Does Not Mean Nonpartisan Or Non-Ideological | NDN

Here are the notes to the survey:
Margins of error are 7.4 points, 6.8 points and 5.8 points, respectively.
Not all partisans offered ratings of all news organizations.
As few as 183 Republicans and as many as 230 Republicans rated the various news outlets, with margins of error ranging from 7.5 to 8.4 percentage points.
As few as 222 Democrats and as many as 272 Democrats rated the news outlets, with margins of error from 6.9 to 7.7 percentage points.
Among independents, as few as 314 and as many as 363 rated the news outlets, producing margins of error of 6.0 to 6.4 percentage points.

Further Decline in Credibility Ratings for Most News Organizations - Page 2 | Pew Research Center for the People and the Press

 

[tinydancer]

The over sampling is brazen. They're skewering the polls blatantly.

 

[AceRothstein]

The over sampling is brazen. They're skewering the polls blatantly.

No they aren't. Are you really that fucking stupid?

 

[g5000]

You can believe the polling data on Election Day. That's the only poll that counts.

But Trump's Chumps are already being pre-loaded to doubt even that poll. And the reason they are being pre-loaded is because Trump already knows he is going to lose, and he is priming the rubes to blame anyone but Trump for the loss.

Trump can't stand to fail, even though he has failed many, many times. He always blames someone else, or tries to make his failures look like a great achievement.

If his daddy hadn't been there to bail him out time after time after time, none of us would have even heard of this huckster prick.

So when he loses on November 8, Trump's Chumps will already have their sore loser talking points programmed into their little parroting skulls.

 

[g5000]

The over sampling is brazen. They're skewering the polls blatantly.

Nope. They are weighted according to political registration. There are less registered Republicans than there are registered Democrats.









Wait for iiiiiiiiiit...!

 

[Flash]

The media uses models to do their predictions.

They talk to a few people and then they extrapolate it out to the population as a whole.

The basic model that most of the pollsters use is mostly based upon traditional Republican v Democrat demographics in previous elections.

Trump is a populist and that is a different model than the traditional Red v Blue.

For instance, Trump has made tremendous in roads in the blue collar White voters that may have voted Democrat in the past.

We also don't what the turnout of Black voters will be. They will vote in the same percentage for Crooked Hillary because they are dumbshits but we don't know if they will have the same numbers as they did for that asshole Obama.

Then you have the Bernie voters that are pissed at the DNC and Crooked Hillary. No telling how many of them will not vote for Crooked Hillary.

On top of that Crooked Hillary is hated and distrusted by a great many Americans.

Crooked Hillary is going to have a very hard time putting together the same coalition of greedy dumbasses that elected that piece of shit Obama.

The only poll that will really count is the one on election night.

 

[yiostheoy]

So we've seen several polls showing Hillary trumping Trump royally!

Clinton and her running mate, Sen. Tim Kaine (Va.), now lead Trump and his running mate, Gov. Mike Pence (Ind.), by 50 percent to 42 percent among registered voters, double the four-point advantage the Democrats held on the eve of the Republican convention in mid-July. Among likely voters, the Democratic nominee leads by 51 percent to 44 percent.

BUT most people reading that poll don't go to the last page and see this:
10% MORE Democrats then GOP in the poll! So naturally she will be ahead.
But this is the only example of this gross misrepresentation of people being polled!
The Post-ABC poll was conducted Monday to Thursday among a random national sample of 1,002 adults interviewed on cellular and landline phones.
33% or 330 Democrats...... 23% or 230 GOP......... 36% or 360 Independent.
View attachment 85033

A clear lead for Clinton after the conventions - The Washington Post


Currently, 46% of registered voters support Clinton and 34% back Trump, with 7% supporting Libertarian Gary Johnson, and 2% backing Jill Stein of the Green Party.

Monmouth University
But go to the last page of the report...

26% or 215 GOP --- 39% or 298 independent --- 35% or 282 Democrat.

Again... tell me that the pollsters/MSM aren't biased!

Polling in general is fraught with issues.

I think it is safe to conclude at this point in time that Hillary has a slight lead overall and in the swing states.

Of course that could be all wrong, but it is consistent with the data from the primaries that Hillary gleaned more votes than anyone else in the DEM or GOP parties.

 

[yiostheoy]

The media uses models to do their predictions.

They talk to a few people and then they extrapolate it out to the population as a whole.

The basic model that most of the pollsters use is mostly based upon traditional Republican v Democrat demographics in previous elections.

Trump is a populist and that is a different model than the traditional Red v Blue.

For instance, Trump has made tremendous in roads in the blue collar White voters that may have voted Democrat in the past.

We also don't what the turnout of Black voters will be. They will vote in the same percentage for Crooked Hillary because they are dumbshits but we don't know if they will have the same numbers as they did for that asshole Obama.

Then you have the Bernie voters that are pissed at the DNC and Crooked Hillary. No telling how many of them will not vote for Crooked Hillary.

On top of that Crooked Hillary is hated and distrusted by a great many Americans.

Crooked Hillary is going to have a very hard time putting together the same coalition of greedy dumbasses that elected that piece of shit Obama.

The only poll that will really count is the one on election night.

"Media" is a plural word.

So "the media use ..." would be the correct usage.

NOT "the media uses ...".

If you don't get that yet, think of media like dogs and cats.

The dogs and cats use ... NOT uses.

 

[yiostheoy]

So we've seen several polls showing Hillary trumping Trump royally!

Clinton and her running mate, Sen. Tim Kaine (Va.), now lead Trump and his running mate, Gov. Mike Pence (Ind.), by 50 percent to 42 percent among registered voters, double the four-point advantage the Democrats held on the eve of the Republican convention in mid-July. Among likely voters, the Democratic nominee leads by 51 percent to 44 percent.

BUT most people reading that poll don't go to the last page and see this:
10% MORE Democrats then GOP in the poll! So naturally she will be ahead.
But this is the only example of this gross misrepresentation of people being polled!
The Post-ABC poll was conducted Monday to Thursday among a random national sample of 1,002 adults interviewed on cellular and landline phones.
33% or 330 Democrats...... 23% or 230 GOP......... 36% or 360 Independent.
View attachment 85033

A clear lead for Clinton after the conventions - The Washington Post


Currently, 46% of registered voters support Clinton and 34% back Trump, with 7% supporting Libertarian Gary Johnson, and 2% backing Jill Stein of the Green Party.

Monmouth University
But go to the last page of the report...

26% or 215 GOP --- 39% or 298 independent --- 35% or 282 Democrat.

Again... tell me that the pollsters/MSM aren't biased!

Hillary is going to win and Johnson is going to get at least 5%.

We should all vote for Stein so she can get at least 5% too and Federal matching funds.

 

[G.T.]

The media uses models to do their predictions.

They talk to a few people and then they extrapolate it out to the population as a whole.

The basic model that most of the pollsters use is mostly based upon traditional Republican v Democrat demographics in previous elections.

Trump is a populist and that is a different model than the traditional Red v Blue.

For instance, Trump has made tremendous in roads in the blue collar White voters that may have voted Democrat in the past.

We also don't what the turnout of Black voters will be. They will vote in the same percentage for Crooked Hillary because they are dumbshits but we don't know if they will have the same numbers as they did for that asshole Obama.

Then you have the Bernie voters that are pissed at the DNC and Crooked Hillary. No telling how many of them will not vote for Crooked Hillary.

On top of that Crooked Hillary is hated and distrusted by a great many Americans.

Crooked Hillary is going to have a very hard time putting together the same coalition of greedy dumbasses that elected that piece of shit Obama.

The only poll that will really count is the one on election night.

dude...if trump is appealing to MORE democrat voters than a usual republican.. these poll #s are even WORSE for him.


jeebusss

 

[Flash]

[

"Media" is a plural word.

So "the media use ..." would be the correct usage.

NOT "the media uses ...".

If you don't get that yet, think of media like dogs and cats.

The dogs and cats use ... NOT uses.

Just go fuck yourself.