Any reason to believe any polling data?

[MarcATL]

The over sampling is brazen. They're skewering the polls blatantly.

No they aren't. Are you really that fucking stupid?

Yes, she really is that cotton-picking stupid.

 

[MarcATL]

The media uses models to do their predictions.

They talk to a few people and then they extrapolate it out to the population as a whole.

The basic model that most of the pollsters use is mostly based upon traditional Republican v Democrat demographics in previous elections.

Trump is a populist and that is a different model than the traditional Red v Blue.

For instance, Trump has made tremendous in roads in the blue collar White voters that may have voted Democrat in the past.

We also don't what the turnout of Black voters will be. They will vote in the same percentage for Crooked Hillary because they are dumbshits but we don't know if they will have the same numbers as they did for that asshole Obama.

Then you have the Bernie voters that are pissed at the DNC and Crooked Hillary. No telling how many of them will not vote for Crooked Hillary.

On top of that Crooked Hillary is hated and distrusted by a great many Americans.

Crooked Hillary is going to have a very hard time putting together the same coalition of greedy dumbasses that elected that piece of shit Obama.

The only poll that will really count is the one on election night.

Yet, whenever those same pollsters you're currently bashing presents data that, in your estimation, bashes Obama and/or his Administration, you're first in line to post them as gospel.

#SMHGOP

 

[Flash]

[

dude...if trump is appealing to MORE democrat voters than a usual republican.. these poll #s are even WORSE for him.


jeebusss

Moon Bat, my name is not Dude.

Crooked Hillary is a terrible candidate for many reasons and Trump is appealing to the populist vote. The models used by the pollsters cannot accurately reflect that appeal now just like they could not do it with Reagan.

I don't know if Trump will win or not. Nobody does at this time.

The real question is can this Crooked Hillary piece of shit put together the same coalition of greedy Gruberidiots that elected that moron Obama.

She is going to have a lot harder time than most of you Moon Bats are willing to admit.

 

[OldLady]

So we've seen several polls showing Hillary trumping Trump royally!

Clinton and her running mate, Sen. Tim Kaine (Va.), now lead Trump and his running mate, Gov. Mike Pence (Ind.), by 50 percent to 42 percent among registered voters, double the four-point advantage the Democrats held on the eve of the Republican convention in mid-July. Among likely voters, the Democratic nominee leads by 51 percent to 44 percent.

BUT most people reading that poll don't go to the last page and see this:
10% MORE Democrats then GOP in the poll! So naturally she will be ahead.
But this is the only example of this gross misrepresentation of people being polled!
The Post-ABC poll was conducted Monday to Thursday among a random national sample of 1,002 adults interviewed on cellular and landline phones.
33% or 330 Democrats...... 23% or 230 GOP......... 36% or 360 Independent.
View attachment 85033

A clear lead for Clinton after the conventions - The Washington Post


Currently, 46% of registered voters support Clinton and 34% back Trump, with 7% supporting Libertarian Gary Johnson, and 2% backing Jill Stein of the Green Party.

Monmouth University
But go to the last page of the report...

26% or 215 GOP --- 39% or 298 independent --- 35% or 282 Democrat.

Again... tell me that the pollsters/MSM aren't biased!

They were boringly accurate about the majority of the primary campaigns. Took all the fun/surprise out of voting day. So why would they be inaccurate now? If they were trying to skew the numbers, they would lie about the # of GOP's. BTW, I've heard a lot of people say that the 40% of Independents in the country are going to decide the election. At least that amount is consistent with the reality. Don't know about the Repubs and Dems.

 

[G.T.]

[

dude...if trump is appealing to MORE democrat voters than a usual republican.. these poll #s are even WORSE for him.


jeebusss

Moon Bat, my name is not Dude.

Crooked Hillary is a terrible candidate for many reasons and Trump is appealing to the populist vote. The models used by the pollsters cannot accurately reflect that appeal now just like they could not do it with Reagan.

I don't know if Trump will win or not. Nobody does at this time.

The real question is can this Crooked Hillary piece of shit put together the same coalition of greedy Gruberidiots that elected that moron Obama.

She is going to have a lot harder time than most of you Moon Bats are willing to admit.

the polls cant reflect the populist vote???


lolll, is there an argument for that assertion or is it just an assertion.....

 

[g5000]

Like I said in another topic, Trump has cornered the Unhinged vote. He will easily score 90+ percent of the Unhinged demographic on Election Day.

The outcome of the election will be determined by that single factor; how big the Unhinged demographic is, and how many of the crazy, stupid, credulous motherfuckers show up to vote.

If Trump wins, it will be because our country has jumped the shark and we are all fucked.

 

[Flash]

[]Yet, whenever those same pollsters you're currently bashing presents data that, in your estimation, bashes Obama and/or his Administration, you're first in line to post them as gospel.

Of course people do that. It is human nature.

However, I am not voting for Trump or that stupid idiot Crooked Hillary so I am looking at it much more objectively than other Conservatives would.

Trump's populist appeal and Crooked Hillary's extensive corruption and dishonesty baggage will make it much more difficult for Crooked Hillary to put together the coalition of greedy assholes that voted in this moron Obama.

 

[candycorn]

Put another way:

Almost all polls have been doing oversampling i.e. counting more Democrats and Democrat leaning Independents then GOP... WHICH IS GOOD from MY perspective!

Good because it makes Trump work that much harder. Lets Democrats have false sense of victory AND really will put a big smudge on MSM that is predicting Clinton BIG victory ... based on these oversampled polls!

So when I see this I say... WhOA!!!

Skewed and Unskewed Polls
In fact, Rasmussen keeps a running monthly poll of party identification. In the latest poll… they found:

During August, 37.6% of Americans considered themselves Republicans. That’s up from 34.9% in July and 35.4% in June. It’s also the largest number of Republicans ever recorded by Rasmussen Report since monthly tracking began in November 2002.

Other polls — including Gallup — apparently have similar assumptions (called “turnout models”) in their polls.

There is a new website, called unskewedpolls.com, that basically reweights the data to fit the Rasmussen party identification. Their results are quite different, giving Trump somewhere between a five and eleven point lead.

The PJ Tatler » Skewed and Unskewed Polls

========

Right?

If that sounds familiar to some of you…it’s because the same bullshit was posted (by the same poster 4 years ago).

PLEASE!!! Don't change the POLLING DATA!!

========

Why do I get the feeling in 4 years, it will be posted again; just with different names.

 

[Flash]

Like I said in another topic, Trump has cornered the Unhinged vote. He will easily score 90+ percent of the Unhinged demographic on Election Day.

The outcome of the election will be determined by that single factor; how big the Unhinged demographic is, and how many of the crazy, stupid, credulous motherfuckers show up to vote.

If Trump wins, it will be because our country has jumped the shark and we are all fucked.

If Crooked Hillary wins it will be because of the greedy stupid uniformed low information Gruberidiots will have lost all intellectual and moral honesty.

She is absolutely a piece of shit no matter how you look at it. Somebody would have to really be a dumbass thinking she would be a good President and Commander in Chief of this country.

 

[Ray From Cleveland]

Nope. They are weighted according to political registration. There are less registered Republicans than there are registered Democrats.

No, the political affiliations are about the same:

Party Affiliation

 

[MarcATL]

[]Yet, whenever those same pollsters you're currently bashing presents data that, in your estimation, bashes Obama and/or his Administration, you're first in line to post them as gospel.

Of course people do that. It is human nature.

However, I am not voting for Trump or that stupid idiot Crooked Hillary so I am looking at it much more objectively than other Conservatives would.

Trump's populist appeal and Crooked Hillary's extensive corruption and dishonesty baggage will make it much more difficult for Crooked Hillary to put together the coalition of greedy assholes that voted in this moron Obama.

So this is your idea of objectivity?

Interesting...

 

[Ray From Cleveland]

[]Yet, whenever those same pollsters you're currently bashing presents data that, in your estimation, bashes Obama and/or his Administration, you're first in line to post them as gospel.

Of course people do that. It is human nature.

However, I am not voting for Trump or that stupid idiot Crooked Hillary so I am looking at it much more objectively than other Conservatives would.

Trump's populist appeal and Crooked Hillary's extensive corruption and dishonesty baggage will make it much more difficult for Crooked Hillary to put together the coalition of greedy assholes that voted in this moron Obama.

DumBama and Hillary are two different animals.

DumBama was well liked. People thought he had a wonderful personality, a great looking family, young, black, spoke well on a Teleprompter, dressed nicely.

He was an inspiration to black voters who came out in droves to make sure they voted in solidarity with DumBama. He had the same effect on college kids as well who wanted to be part of history and to shed their white guilt pounded into them from school to school.

Hillary doesn't have any of those things going for her. She's old, scratchy voice, her wardrobe is comical along with her hair styles, comes with a ton of baggage, she's filthy rich and sleeps in the same bed as Wall Street.

Besides the fact that we are in the middle of August and polls really don't mean anything right now rigged or not, it's the candidate that can inspire their voters to come out on election day to cast their ballot that really counts.

So how could we gauge that? Simple, just look at the turnouts at each of their events. Hillary could barely pack a high school basketball court while Trump is standing room only at major sports arenas and like.

Now the plan to victory is for Trump haters to put out the flame, to remove that inspiration truth or lies, to change Trump's wording to mean something entirely different than what he says. This works better on headline voters than those who actually read the articles or follow what's really going on.

 

[healthmyths]

Oh look, the OP created the same exact thread in 2012. The conservative echo chamber is eating away at your brain cells.

A recent poll by Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted July 19-22/2012
Credibility Ratings for Most News Organizations.

I'm not going to present the biased poll results BUT want to know why the poll had:
384 independents, 286 Democrats and 239 Republicans, or 909 surveyed.

Now this is what many critics of polls are recently saying plain common sense would mean that by NOT having an equal number of Democrats/GOP /Independents you are biasing the results!

It is a FACT Independents LEAN more Democrat (17%) VS Independents LEAN GOP (13%)!
So of the 384 Independents 65 would lean Democrat or NOW a total of 286 Democrats PLUS Dem leaning Independents = total of 351 Demos.
Leaving GOP leaning Indes of 31 added to 239 GOP or a total of 270 GOP PLUS GOP leaning Indes equals 270 that would be GOP!

So in this poll of credibility 351 are Democrats/leaning Indes... AND the biased MSM leans Democrat.. THEN the Dems will have a higher
credibility of news by already biased Dems.

Common sense would say if almost 10% more responses came from Demo/leaning Independents THE RESULTS ARE SKEWED!!!!!


almost two-thirds of those who call themselves independent lean to either the Democratic or Republican Party.
This leaves no more than one in five American voters completely unattached to a party.
Independent Lean Democrat 17%
Independent Lean GOP 13%
Strong Democrat 18%
Not strong Democrat 12%
Independent, lean Democrat 17%
Independent, not lean 20%
Independent, lean Republican 13%
Not strong Republican 8%
Strong Republican 13%
Independent Does Not Mean Nonpartisan Or Non-Ideological | NDN

Here are the notes to the survey:
Margins of error are 7.4 points, 6.8 points and 5.8 points, respectively.
Not all partisans offered ratings of all news organizations.
As few as 183 Republicans and as many as 230 Republicans rated the various news outlets, with margins of error ranging from 7.5 to 8.4 percentage points.
As few as 222 Democrats and as many as 272 Democrats rated the news outlets, with margins of error from 6.9 to 7.7 percentage points.
Among independents, as few as 314 and as many as 363 rated the news outlets, producing margins of error of 6.0 to 6.4 percentage points.

Further Decline in Credibility Ratings for Most News Organizations - Page 2 | Pew Research Center for the People and the Press

Obviously the majority of people didn't learn that the polls/MSM are skewed and as such their information is biased.
Worthwhile then repeating because it just is NOT indicative of the true attitude of Democrats and Republicans.
Democrats see these results and this confirms their opinion. GOP see the results and says there is no hope!

 

[healthmyths]

[]Yet, whenever those same pollsters you're currently bashing presents data that, in your estimation, bashes Obama and/or his Administration, you're first in line to post them as gospel.

Of course people do that. It is human nature.

However, I am not voting for Trump or that stupid idiot Crooked Hillary so I am looking at it much more objectively than other Conservatives would.

Trump's populist appeal and Crooked Hillary's extensive corruption and dishonesty baggage will make it much more difficult for Crooked Hillary to put together the coalition of greedy assholes that voted in this moron Obama.

DumBama and Hillary are two different animals.

DumBama was well liked. People thought he had a wonderful personality, a great looking family, young, black, spoke well on a Teleprompter, dressed nicely.

He was an inspiration to black voters who came out in droves to make sure they voted in solidarity with DumBama. He had the same effect on college kids as well who wanted to be part of history and to shed their white guilt pounded into them from school to school.

Hillary doesn't have any of those things going for her. She's old, scratchy voice, her wardrobe is comical along with her hair styles, comes with a ton of baggage, she's filthy rich and sleeps in the same bed as Wall Street.

Besides the fact that we are in the middle of August and polls really don't mean anything right now rigged or not, it's the candidate that can inspire their voters to come out on election day to cast their ballot that really counts.

So how could we gauge that? Simple, just look at the turnouts at each of their events. Hillary could barely pack a high school basketball court while Trump is standing room only at major sports arenas and like.

Now the plan to victory is for Trump haters to put out the flame, to remove that inspiration truth or lies, to change Trump's wording to mean something entirely different than what he says. This works better on headline voters than those who actually read the articles or follow what's really going on.

I've used this several times but it is certainly worth in light of your observations of Dumbama!
In Obama's own words when he was "lying " to his own mother!!!
From Obama's autobiography, "Dreams from My Father"...published July 18,1995 page 94 -95

"I had given her a reassuring smile and patted her hand told her not to worry, I wouldn't do anything stupid.
It was usually an effective tactic, another one of those tricks I had learned.
People were satisfied so long as you were courteous and smiled and made no sudden moves.
They were more than satisfied.
They were revealed.
Such a pleasant surprise to find a
well-mannered young black man who didn't seem angry all the time."

And America has paid with lives, money and security because of this now ANGRY BLACK MAN!

 

[AceRothstein]

Oh look, the OP created the same exact thread in 2012. The conservative echo chamber is eating away at your brain cells.

A recent poll by Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted July 19-22/2012
Credibility Ratings for Most News Organizations.

I'm not going to present the biased poll results BUT want to know why the poll had:
384 independents, 286 Democrats and 239 Republicans, or 909 surveyed.

Now this is what many critics of polls are recently saying plain common sense would mean that by NOT having an equal number of Democrats/GOP /Independents you are biasing the results!

It is a FACT Independents LEAN more Democrat (17%) VS Independents LEAN GOP (13%)!
So of the 384 Independents 65 would lean Democrat or NOW a total of 286 Democrats PLUS Dem leaning Independents = total of 351 Demos.
Leaving GOP leaning Indes of 31 added to 239 GOP or a total of 270 GOP PLUS GOP leaning Indes equals 270 that would be GOP!

So in this poll of credibility 351 are Democrats/leaning Indes... AND the biased MSM leans Democrat.. THEN the Dems will have a higher
credibility of news by already biased Dems.

Common sense would say if almost 10% more responses came from Demo/leaning Independents THE RESULTS ARE SKEWED!!!!!


almost two-thirds of those who call themselves independent lean to either the Democratic or Republican Party.
This leaves no more than one in five American voters completely unattached to a party.
Independent Lean Democrat 17%
Independent Lean GOP 13%
Strong Democrat 18%
Not strong Democrat 12%
Independent, lean Democrat 17%
Independent, not lean 20%
Independent, lean Republican 13%
Not strong Republican 8%
Strong Republican 13%
Independent Does Not Mean Nonpartisan Or Non-Ideological | NDN

Here are the notes to the survey:
Margins of error are 7.4 points, 6.8 points and 5.8 points, respectively.
Not all partisans offered ratings of all news organizations.
As few as 183 Republicans and as many as 230 Republicans rated the various news outlets, with margins of error ranging from 7.5 to 8.4 percentage points.
As few as 222 Democrats and as many as 272 Democrats rated the news outlets, with margins of error from 6.9 to 7.7 percentage points.
Among independents, as few as 314 and as many as 363 rated the news outlets, producing margins of error of 6.0 to 6.4 percentage points.

Further Decline in Credibility Ratings for Most News Organizations - Page 2 | Pew Research Center for the People and the Press

Obviously the majority of people didn't learn that the polls/MSM are skewed and as such their information is biased.
Worthwhile then repeating because it just is NOT indicative of the true attitude of Democrats and Republicans.
Democrats see these results and this confirms their opinion. GOP see the results and says there is no hope!

You just don't know what you're talking about, that's all.

 

[nat4900]

To answer the OP question in the title of this thread...if you're based in reality, you believe the polls.

Simple.

The O/Poster is following the Kubler-Ross stages when dealing with severe grief (like beig told that you have just a few moths left to live)......
The first stage in the paradigm, is DENIAL (soon to be followed with ANGER, DEPRESSION and finally, ACCEPTANCE.)