Breaking: Scientists say Ice Age imminent!!!

[CrusaderFrank]

Hey Sarge, a definate predicition, within the next five years, at least three of them will be in the top ten, and one will exceed 2015. Now what are your predictions, other than more flap-yap from know-nothing 'Conservatives'?

The ice caps will be gone by 2005

 

[skookerasbil]

Hey Sarge, a definate predicition, within the next five years, at least three of them will be in the top ten, and one will exceed 2015. Now what are your predictions, other than more flap-yap from know-nothing 'Conservatives'?

The ice caps will be gone by 2005

 

[skookerasbil]

Another thread in here dominated by skeptics!!!!!

 

[flacaltenn]

Well, I guess we will have to wait until 2030 to find out. In the mean time, we can expect more much warmer years. Going to be an interesting time in the next 15 years.

People have been trying to predict the warming away for many years now, but it just keeps getting warmer. People like Silly Billy that are so ignorant that it is sometimes painful to read their silly claims.

Won't have to wait 15 years - thats the beginning of the peak cooling. I'll wager they can call it in the next 5 years or so with MORE precision than the 50 and 100 year GWarming predictions..

Because what they are watching is a "predictive pattern" of solar cycles mimicking those that preceded the past 2 sun cooling periods.. And the PRECEDING 11 year cycle will pretty much nail the prediction for the following one..

So since this is the strongest of the natural cooling forcings, strong enough to bring on a little Ice Age in its last cycle, and if it does nothing more than temporarily stall the warming trend, like all the natural cooling forcings have done for the last 100 years, will you finally admit that our warming trends are not natural?

Oh -- it will be noticed. Because the warming has ALREADY stalled in advance of it's projected arrival. Don't worry about that. You'll have to wait about 20 years at least for a measurable signature of CO2 induced warming to re-emerge.. IF the pattern matching that I saw pans out --- it will decades of discussing OTHER more important enviro topics that have been buried under the fat-ass of this GW circus..

 

[Kosh]

The AGW cult better get used to the Earth warming from non-human sources..

500 million years from now, the Earth will be so hot that life will start to die off..

1.2 Trillion years from now life will not be able to exist at all as the Earth becomes a ball of fire..

Why would this happen?

It is called the SUN!!

Sorry AGW cult talking measurements as the SUN gets brighter and hotter does not help your case..

 

[Old Rocks]

And this has what to do with the subject?

 

[Old Rocks]

Well, I guess we will have to wait until 2030 to find out. In the mean time, we can expect more much warmer years. Going to be an interesting time in the next 15 years.

People have been trying to predict the warming away for many years now, but it just keeps getting warmer. People like Silly Billy that are so ignorant that it is sometimes painful to read their silly claims.

Won't have to wait 15 years - thats the beginning of the peak cooling. I'll wager they can call it in the next 5 years or so with MORE precision than the 50 and 100 year GWarming predictions..

Because what they are watching is a "predictive pattern" of solar cycles mimicking those that preceded the past 2 sun cooling periods.. And the PRECEDING 11 year cycle will pretty much nail the prediction for the following one..

So since this is the strongest of the natural cooling forcings, strong enough to bring on a little Ice Age in its last cycle, and if it does nothing more than temporarily stall the warming trend, like all the natural cooling forcings have done for the last 100 years, will you finally admit that our warming trends are not natural?

Oh -- it will be noticed. Because the warming has ALREADY stalled in advance of it's projected arrival. Don't worry about that. You'll have to wait about 20 years at least for a measurable signature of CO2 induced warming to re-emerge.. IF the pattern matching that I saw pans out --- it will decades of discussing OTHER more important enviro topics that have been buried under the fat-ass of this GW circus..

Well, now, a solid prediction of cooling. So when does it start? I have already stated that I expected that we will see at least three years in the next in the top five, and one of them will exceed this year. What are your predictions?

 

[skookerasbil]

There is no such thing as a solid prediction of cooling. Nor is there such thing as a solid prediction of warming.

Page 6 of this thread..........about 4 billion links that display very clearly that computer models as used to predict climate change are >>>>


wOrtHleSS

 

[flacaltenn]

Well, I guess we will have to wait until 2030 to find out. In the mean time, we can expect more much warmer years. Going to be an interesting time in the next 15 years.

People have been trying to predict the warming away for many years now, but it just keeps getting warmer. People like Silly Billy that are so ignorant that it is sometimes painful to read their silly claims.

Won't have to wait 15 years - thats the beginning of the peak cooling. I'll wager they can call it in the next 5 years or so with MORE precision than the 50 and 100 year GWarming predictions..

Because what they are watching is a "predictive pattern" of solar cycles mimicking those that preceded the past 2 sun cooling periods.. And the PRECEDING 11 year cycle will pretty much nail the prediction for the following one..

So since this is the strongest of the natural cooling forcings, strong enough to bring on a little Ice Age in its last cycle, and if it does nothing more than temporarily stall the warming trend, like all the natural cooling forcings have done for the last 100 years, will you finally admit that our warming trends are not natural?

Oh -- it will be noticed. Because the warming has ALREADY stalled in advance of it's projected arrival. Don't worry about that. You'll have to wait about 20 years at least for a measurable signature of CO2 induced warming to re-emerge.. IF the pattern matching that I saw pans out --- it will decades of discussing OTHER more important enviro topics that have been buried under the fat-ass of this GW circus..

Well, now, a solid prediction of cooling. So when does it start? I have already stated that I expected that we will see at least three years in the next in the top five, and one of them will exceed this year. What are your predictions?

No way GoldiRocks.. Aint' gonna El Nino ole FlaCalTenn !!!! I'm not predicting.. The estimates are increasing quickly tho.. From 20% chance in 20 years -- to now 40 or 60% in 20 years. All in the span of just this past year..

But i AM IMPRESSED with what they are showing me. You have distinct abnormal signatures of solar output going into the Dalton Minimum. And the last 3 sun cycles have those same features to match. It's like PowerBall -- you match the first 5 and you win. And if you match the PowerBall number -- you double your winnings. We've seen 3 of the numbers..

 

[edthecynic]

Because the warming has ALREADY stalled

Not really.

Global Analysis - Annual 2014 | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)

• The year 2014 was the warmest year across global land and ocean surfaces since records began in 1880. The annually-averaged temperature was 0.69°C (1.24°F) above the 20th century average of 13.9°C (57.0°F), easily breaking the previous records of 2005 and 2010 by 0.04°C (0.07°F). This also marks the 38th consecutive year (since 1977) that the yearly global temperature was above average. Including 2014, 9 of the 10 warmest years in the 135-year period of record have occurred in the 21st century. 1998 currently ranks as the fourth warmest year on record.

 

[flacaltenn]

Because the warming has ALREADY stalled

Not really.

Global Analysis - Annual 2014 | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)

• The year 2014 was the warmest year across global land and ocean surfaces since records began in 1880. The annually-averaged temperature was 0.69°C (1.24°F) above the 20th century average of 13.9°C (57.0°F), easily breaking the previous records of 2005 and 2010 by 0.04°C (0.07°F). This also marks the 38th consecutive year (since 1977) that the yearly global temperature was above average. Including 2014, 9 of the 10 warmest years in the 135-year period of record have occurred in the 21st century. 1998 currently ranks as the fourth warmest year on record.

Don't be a denier. .Even the IPCC addresses "the hiatus" in AR5 report. Yearly records don't matter when you are sitting at relative maximum. How many times the Dow break 18000 while sitting in the 17,9XXs ??

What matters is that the actual trend line has gone down to near zero and those records (the ones that were REALLY records and not withdrawn by NOAA after the fact) were records by 0.03degC. In the noise level..

And I'm not doing this AGAIN with you. Will just call you "a denier" and quote the IPCC report.

 

[edthecynic]

Because the warming has ALREADY stalled

Not really.

Global Analysis - Annual 2014 | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)

• The year 2014 was the warmest year across global land and ocean surfaces since records began in 1880. The annually-averaged temperature was 0.69°C (1.24°F) above the 20th century average of 13.9°C (57.0°F), easily breaking the previous records of 2005 and 2010 by 0.04°C (0.07°F). This also marks the 38th consecutive year (since 1977) that the yearly global temperature was above average. Including 2014, 9 of the 10 warmest years in the 135-year period of record have occurred in the 21st century. 1998 currently ranks as the fourth warmest year on record.

Don't be a denier. .Even the IPCC addresses "the hiatus" in AR5 report. Yearly records don't matter when you are sitting at relative maximum. How many times the Dow break 18000 while sitting in the 17,9XXs ??

What matters is that the actual trend line has gone down to near zero and those records (the ones that were REALLY records and not withdrawn by NOAA after the fact) were records by 0.03degC. In the noise level..

And I'm not doing this AGAIN with you. Will just call you "a denier" and quote the IPCC report.

Of course you don't want to discuss it because the "hiatus" has been debunked, and deniers only have erroneous data to "support" them.

Scientists Cast Doubt On An Apparent 'Hiatus' In Global Warming

The new results, published in the journal Science, may dispel the idea that Earth has been in the midst of a "global warming hiatus" — a period over the past 20 years where the planet's temperature appears to have risen very little.

"We think the data no longer supports the notion of having a hiatus," says Tom Karl, a scientist with the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration and coauthor of the new study.

Now Karl's team, which is directly responsible for taking the Earth's temperature, says a technological shift in the way the measurements are taken has also obscured the temperature's climb.

Here's why: The single number — average global temperature — comes from tens of thousands of independent temperature readings. And, in recent decades, the technology for getting those readings has gradually shifted.

On land those measurements are made by weather stations; on the sea, the job has generally been done by commercial and military ships for decades. But starting in the 1980s, governments also began dropping buoys into the ocean to do independent measurements.

Karl and his colleagues decided to look at stretches of water where ships pass very near buoys, to compare the two temperatures. And they made a surprising discovery.

"The buoys actually read colder than the ships," Karl says.

Even though the two thermometers were in the same place, they gave different readings. And it was happening all over the world. As more buoys were dropped into the sea — all delivering measurements that were consistently cooler than a ship would show in that same spot — the warming trend in the average global temperature seemed to slow dramatically.

But Karl and his colleagues believe what looked like a flattening of the warming trend actually just reflected a change in the way the temperature was taken. When the team factored in a correction to the historical data that reconciled the buoys with the ships, they found that what had seemed to be a hiatus in warming disappeared.

 

[Old Rocks]

Well, I guess we will have to wait until 2030 to find out. In the mean time, we can expect more much warmer years. Going to be an interesting time in the next 15 years.

People have been trying to predict the warming away for many years now, but it just keeps getting warmer. People like Silly Billy that are so ignorant that it is sometimes painful to read their silly claims.

Won't have to wait 15 years - thats the beginning of the peak cooling. I'll wager they can call it in the next 5 years or so with MORE precision than the 50 and 100 year GWarming predictions..

Because what they are watching is a "predictive pattern" of solar cycles mimicking those that preceded the past 2 sun cooling periods.. And the PRECEDING 11 year cycle will pretty much nail the prediction for the following one..

So since this is the strongest of the natural cooling forcings, strong enough to bring on a little Ice Age in its last cycle, and if it does nothing more than temporarily stall the warming trend, like all the natural cooling forcings have done for the last 100 years, will you finally admit that our warming trends are not natural?

Oh -- it will be noticed. Because the warming has ALREADY stalled in advance of it's projected arrival. Don't worry about that. You'll have to wait about 20 years at least for a measurable signature of CO2 induced warming to re-emerge.. IF the pattern matching that I saw pans out --- it will decades of discussing OTHER more important enviro topics that have been buried under the fat-ass of this GW circus..

Well, now, a solid prediction of cooling. So when does it start? I have already stated that I expected that we will see at least three years in the next in the top five, and one of them will exceed this year. What are your predictions?

No way GoldiRocks.. Aint' gonna El Nino ole FlaCalTenn !!!! I'm not predicting.. The estimates are increasing quickly tho.. From 20% chance in 20 years -- to now 40 or 60% in 20 years. All in the span of just this past year..

But i AM IMPRESSED with what they are showing me. You have distinct abnormal signatures of solar output going into the Dalton Minimum. And the last 3 sun cycles have those same features to match. It's like PowerBall -- you match the first 5 and you win. And if you match the PowerBall number -- you double your winnings. We've seen 3 of the numbers..

Well, basing your prediction of cooling on similiar solar output to the Dalton minimum is a bit differant than denying the existance of a present El Nino on personal whackadoodle theories. We have already seen a decline in the TSI, and yet we have not cooled. Perhaps we have not warmed as much as we would have, otherwise, but we have not cooled. Were we to see a significant decline in the TSI, that would be a very bad thing for two reasons. One, with the present population level, there would be a lot of starving people due to decline in agriculture production. Two, people would take that as proof that the GHGs had no effect, and we would see much more CO2 put into the atmosphere, and when the minimum ended, Katy bar the door.

 

[KissMy]

I just bought a vacation house in sunny warm Southern Florida at 53' elevation above sea level a few blocks from the Beach. So I'm all set if sea levels rise by 20+ feet or if we have a mini ice age! Either the beach will move closer or I run my A/C less. Plus I have a large farm in the North if I get too hot down there in the summer.

We have been spewing CO2 for over 100 years & only managed to get a 7" rise in ocean levels & 1.8 degree rise in Global temp per 100 years. Most of us believe this has not been a urgent crisis for humans or the planet. We should run out of carbon based fuel before we meltdown.

 

[Billy_Bob]

Well, I guess we will have to wait until 2030 to find out. In the mean time, we can expect more much warmer years. Going to be an interesting time in the next 15 years.

People have been trying to predict the warming away for many years now, but it just keeps getting warmer. People like Silly Billy that are so ignorant that it is sometimes painful to read their silly claims.

Won't have to wait 15 years - thats the beginning of the peak cooling. I'll wager they can call it in the next 5 years or so with MORE precision than the 50 and 100 year GWarming predictions..

Because what they are watching is a "predictive pattern" of solar cycles mimicking those that preceded the past 2 sun cooling periods.. And the PRECEDING 11 year cycle will pretty much nail the prediction for the following one..

So since this is the strongest of the natural cooling forcings, strong enough to bring on a little Ice Age in its last cycle, and if it does nothing more than temporarily stall the warming trend, like all the natural cooling forcings have done for the last 100 years, will you finally admit that our warming trends are not natural?

Oh -- it will be noticed. Because the warming has ALREADY stalled in advance of it's projected arrival. Don't worry about that. You'll have to wait about 20 years at least for a measurable signature of CO2 induced warming to re-emerge.. IF the pattern matching that I saw pans out --- it will decades of discussing OTHER more important enviro topics that have been buried under the fat-ass of this GW circus..

Well, now, a solid prediction of cooling. So when does it start? I have already stated that I expected that we will see at least three years in the next in the top five, and one of them will exceed this year. What are your predictions?

No way GoldiRocks.. Aint' gonna El Nino ole FlaCalTenn !!!! I'm not predicting.. The estimates are increasing quickly tho.. From 20% chance in 20 years -- to now 40 or 60% in 20 years. All in the span of just this past year..

But i AM IMPRESSED with what they are showing me. You have distinct abnormal signatures of solar output going into the Dalton Minimum. And the last 3 sun cycles have those same features to match. It's like PowerBall -- you match the first 5 and you win. And if you match the PowerBall number -- you double your winnings. We've seen 3 of the numbers..

Ocean Oscillations are the power ball. And they too will match in the early part of the next solar cycle. (about 6 years from now) Right about the time the Dalton took a deep plunge into its cold phase.

 

[jc456]

The AGW cult better get used to the Earth warming from non-human sources..

500 million years from now, the Earth will be so hot that life will start to die off..

1.2 Trillion years from now life will not be able to exist at all as the Earth becomes a ball of fire..

Why would this happen?

It is called the SUN!!

Sorry AGW cult talking measurements as the SUN gets brighter and hotter does not help your case..

Actually, from what I've learned: from Cosmospup

"The Sun will continue as a stable star for at least as long as its supply of hydrogen lasts. (Hydrogen nuclei are fused together to form helium in its core, with energy given off).

This is predicted to be for the next 4-5 billion years. By the end of that time, the Sun will begin to fuse helium, and as a result, expand in diameter to perhaps 300 times its present size.

After it burns out its helium, it will begin to reduce in size, then cool. That process will probably take another 5-8 billion years.

It is probably safe to say that the Sun can support life on Earth fairly well for at least another 3 billion years, possibly more"

Deniers have been predicting an Ice Age since the 1970s, but the most that ever happens is the warming stalls for a period of time and then the warming begins again exactly where the last warming cycle left off. We don't even get a cooling cycle back to the last cool point let alone an Ice Age, only a stall in the warming and then some more warming.

so you are conceding that there are natural warming and cooling cycles? What about hottest year eva stuff?

There hasn't been a cooling cycle in over 100 years. Why are there no more cooling cycles?

Funny stuff, some people will believe anything a priest in the religion says. But look at the 40s to the 70s, 1998 to today, I mean dude really you got to check out other web and news sites. your data is greatly in error.

 

[flacaltenn]

Because the warming has ALREADY stalled

Not really.

Global Analysis - Annual 2014 | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)

• The year 2014 was the warmest year across global land and ocean surfaces since records began in 1880. The annually-averaged temperature was 0.69°C (1.24°F) above the 20th century average of 13.9°C (57.0°F), easily breaking the previous records of 2005 and 2010 by 0.04°C (0.07°F). This also marks the 38th consecutive year (since 1977) that the yearly global temperature was above average. Including 2014, 9 of the 10 warmest years in the 135-year period of record have occurred in the 21st century. 1998 currently ranks as the fourth warmest year on record.

Don't be a denier. .Even the IPCC addresses "the hiatus" in AR5 report. Yearly records don't matter when you are sitting at relative maximum. How many times the Dow break 18000 while sitting in the 17,9XXs ??

What matters is that the actual trend line has gone down to near zero and those records (the ones that were REALLY records and not withdrawn by NOAA after the fact) were records by 0.03degC. In the noise level..

And I'm not doing this AGAIN with you. Will just call you "a denier" and quote the IPCC report.

Of course you don't want to discuss it because the "hiatus" has been debunked, and deniers only have erroneous data to "support" them.

Scientists Cast Doubt On An Apparent 'Hiatus' In Global Warming

The new results, published in the journal Science, may dispel the idea that Earth has been in the midst of a "global warming hiatus" — a period over the past 20 years where the planet's temperature appears to have risen very little.

"We think the data no longer supports the notion of having a hiatus," says Tom Karl, a scientist with the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration and coauthor of the new study.

Now Karl's team, which is directly responsible for taking the Earth's temperature, says a technological shift in the way the measurements are taken has also obscured the temperature's climb.

Here's why: The single number — average global temperature — comes from tens of thousands of independent temperature readings. And, in recent decades, the technology for getting those readings has gradually shifted.

On land those measurements are made by weather stations; on the sea, the job has generally been done by commercial and military ships for decades. But starting in the 1980s, governments also began dropping buoys into the ocean to do independent measurements.

Karl and his colleagues decided to look at stretches of water where ships pass very near buoys, to compare the two temperatures. And they made a surprising discovery.

"The buoys actually read colder than the ships," Karl says.

Even though the two thermometers were in the same place, they gave different readings. And it was happening all over the world. As more buoys were dropped into the sea — all delivering measurements that were consistently cooler than a ship would show in that same spot — the warming trend in the average global temperature seemed to slow dramatically.

But Karl and his colleagues believe what looked like a flattening of the warming trend actually just reflected a change in the way the temperature was taken. When the team factored in a correction to the historical data that reconciled the buoys with the ships, they found that what had seemed to be a hiatus in warming disappeared.

Yeah Yeah.. ONE PAPER.. And not a complete one.. And produced only for the period of 2000 thru 2014.

That's not a refutation -- that's a hail mary.. You keep pounding that if it gets you off..

 

[edthecynic]

Deniers have been predicting an Ice Age since the 1970s, but the most that ever happens is the warming stalls for a period of time and then the warming begins again exactly where the last warming cycle left off. We don't even get a cooling cycle back to the last cool point let alone an Ice Age, only a stall in the warming and then some more warming.

so you are conceding that there are natural warming and cooling cycles? What about hottest year eva stuff?

There hasn't been a cooling cycle in over 100 years. Why are there no more cooling cycles?

Funny stuff, some people will believe anything a priest in the religion says. But look at the 40s to the 70s, 1998 to today, I mean dude really you got to check out other web and news sites. your data is greatly in error.

The 40s to the 70s were FLAT as well as 1998 to today. In neither of those flat cycles did it cool to a low of 1901 to 1910, and the current flat cycle has not cooled to the lows of the 40s to the 70s. The fact remains there has been no significant cooling in over 100 years.

 

[edthecynic]

Because the warming has ALREADY stalled

Not really.

Global Analysis - Annual 2014 | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)

• The year 2014 was the warmest year across global land and ocean surfaces since records began in 1880. The annually-averaged temperature was 0.69°C (1.24°F) above the 20th century average of 13.9°C (57.0°F), easily breaking the previous records of 2005 and 2010 by 0.04°C (0.07°F). This also marks the 38th consecutive year (since 1977) that the yearly global temperature was above average. Including 2014, 9 of the 10 warmest years in the 135-year period of record have occurred in the 21st century. 1998 currently ranks as the fourth warmest year on record.

Don't be a denier. .Even the IPCC addresses "the hiatus" in AR5 report. Yearly records don't matter when you are sitting at relative maximum. How many times the Dow break 18000 while sitting in the 17,9XXs ??

What matters is that the actual trend line has gone down to near zero and those records (the ones that were REALLY records and not withdrawn by NOAA after the fact) were records by 0.03degC. In the noise level..

And I'm not doing this AGAIN with you. Will just call you "a denier" and quote the IPCC report.

Of course you don't want to discuss it because the "hiatus" has been debunked, and deniers only have erroneous data to "support" them.

Scientists Cast Doubt On An Apparent 'Hiatus' In Global Warming

The new results, published in the journal Science, may dispel the idea that Earth has been in the midst of a "global warming hiatus" — a period over the past 20 years where the planet's temperature appears to have risen very little.

"We think the data no longer supports the notion of having a hiatus," says Tom Karl, a scientist with the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration and coauthor of the new study.

Now Karl's team, which is directly responsible for taking the Earth's temperature, says a technological shift in the way the measurements are taken has also obscured the temperature's climb.

Here's why: The single number — average global temperature — comes from tens of thousands of independent temperature readings. And, in recent decades, the technology for getting those readings has gradually shifted.

On land those measurements are made by weather stations; on the sea, the job has generally been done by commercial and military ships for decades. But starting in the 1980s, governments also began dropping buoys into the ocean to do independent measurements.

Karl and his colleagues decided to look at stretches of water where ships pass very near buoys, to compare the two temperatures. And they made a surprising discovery.

"The buoys actually read colder than the ships," Karl says.

Even though the two thermometers were in the same place, they gave different readings. And it was happening all over the world. As more buoys were dropped into the sea — all delivering measurements that were consistently cooler than a ship would show in that same spot — the warming trend in the average global temperature seemed to slow dramatically.

But Karl and his colleagues believe what looked like a flattening of the warming trend actually just reflected a change in the way the temperature was taken. When the team factored in a correction to the historical data that reconciled the buoys with the ships, they found that what had seemed to be a hiatus in warming disappeared.

Yeah Yeah.. ONE PAPER.. And not a complete one.. And produced only for the period of 2000 thru 2014.

That's not a refutation -- that's a hail mary.. You keep pounding that if it gets you off..

BULLSHIT!
The buoys data goes back to the 1980s. You obviously believe the study or you wouldn't misrepresent it.
Thank you.

 

[flacaltenn]

Ocean Oscillations are the power ball. And they too will match in the early part of the next solar cycle. (about 6 years from now) Right about the time the Dalton took a deep plunge into its cold phase.

That's yet ANOTHER effect outside of this interesting pattern of solar change. There are DOZENS of semi-periodic known climate drivers that INCLUDE the sun, Milankovitch cycles. Arctic Oscillations, Ocean oscillations, MJO effects that are in play.

Ask GoldiRocks who recently was read into Fourier Analysis. You take a dozen periodic events with different frequency and phase and let them run free and EVENTUALLY --- you will see ANY ole shape in the Earth's average temperature. Especially when combined with the delays and storage effects of heat in the thermo part of the Earth's climate system.

That's just math. Not exactly Fourier synthesis -- since Fourier was only concerned with a "minimum basis set" of functions that was uncorrelated and specially related to each other. But this is the same idea. I can take 4 sinusoidal oscillations with some storage and make a perfectly linear TEMPERATURE ramp out of them. Over thousands of years -- you can generate a kaleidoscope of outcomes.