Climate Models and Evaporation

[Old Rocks]

LOL 2015 is putting our deniers in panic mode. All that water that hit Texas did not come from evaporation? Record rain there and other places in the world this year. Right in the places that there is normally a lot of rain in an El Nino year, just this year, a lot more rain than has been the norm. In the meantime, the areas normally warm and dry are even warmer and dryer. Another correct prediction borne out by the AGW theory. And it is not happening just in the remote Arctic, but right across the major population centers of this planet. And that is putting our deniers in a panic.

It is? Natural disasters have never happened before? Well, at least in your bizarre, twisted view of the world they didn't, but we who actually follow science and the scientific method, understand that it is normal.

The only people getting hysterical are you because the world ain't warming up like you hoped it would and the people are abandoning your religion.

So sad for the olfraud. Though, you were able to convince the progressive Pope over to your side. Kudos for getting more religious nuts on your side. However, we scientists know that facts will trump propaganda in the end.

Mr. Westwall, you continue to lie about what other people say, even when what was said is posted right above your lie. Show me where I said there was never any weather disasters in the past. And I really don't see you as a scientist at all. In fact, I have come to believe your are lying about your credentials.

We are right now getting more flooding in Texas and the Midwest, of top of already record floods this year. Go ahead, try to lie about that.

http://www.weather.com/forecast/regional/news/plains-rain-flood-threat-wettest-may-ranking

State climatologist Gary McManus from the Oklahoma Climatological Survey calculated the May rainfall total averaged over all Sooner State reporting stations - 14.40 inches - clobbered the previous record wet month, set in October 1941 (10.75 inches).

Not to be outdone, Texas has picked up a statewide average of 8.81 inches in May, crushing the previous record wet month of June 2004 during which a statewide average of 6.66 inches of rain fell, according to the Office of the State Climatologist at Texas A&M University.

"It has been one continuous storm after another for the past week to 10 days in several regions of the state," said Dr. John Nielsen-Gammon, Texas state climatologist in a press release Wednesday. "Spring is usually wet, but not this wet."

At one time, more than 170 locations in the central and southern Plains reported river flooding, the majority of which were in Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Arkansas, eastern Kansas and Missouri.

Many cities set a record wettest May or month including Dallas-Ft. Worth, Wichita Falls, Oklahoma City and Corpus Christi.

 

[Old Rocks]

http://www.weather.com/news/climate/news/warmest-coldest-january-april-west-northeast

The first four months of 2015 were the warmest on record in three western states, while Florida had its hottest April on record, according to a just-released report from NOAA.

Alaska, Arizona and California each shattered their record warmest January through April period in 2015. Nevada, Oregon and Utah experienced their second warmest opening four months of any year. Five other western states chalked up a top 10 warmest January through April:

- Washington, Idaho, Wyoming: Third warmest
- Colorado: Fifth warmest
- Montana: Sixth warmest

California topped its previous record warm January through April set one year ago by 1.1 degrees Fahrenheit, an impressive feat considering temperature data averaged over many locations statewide makes a few tenths of a degree difference significant.

Enlarge
January-April 2015 temperature departures from the 20th-century average in degrees Fahrenheit. (NOAA/NCEI) (NOAA/NCEI)


But according to Mr. Westwall, this is just normal.

 

[Billy_Bob]

http://www.weather.com/news/climate/news/warmest-coldest-january-april-west-northeast

The first four months of 2015 were the warmest on record in three western states, while Florida had its hottest April on record, according to a just-released report from NOAA.

Alaska, Arizona and California each shattered their record warmest January through April period in 2015. Nevada, Oregon and Utah experienced their second warmest opening four months of any year. Five other western states chalked up a top 10 warmest January through April:

- Washington, Idaho, Wyoming: Third warmest
- Colorado: Fifth warmest
- Montana: Sixth warmest

California topped its previous record warm January through April set one year ago by 1.1 degrees Fahrenheit, an impressive feat considering temperature data averaged over many locations statewide makes a few tenths of a degree difference significant.

Enlarge
January-April 2015 temperature departures from the 20th-century average in degrees Fahrenheit. (NOAA/NCEI) (NOAA/NCEI)


But according to Mr. Westwall, this is just normal.

Old frauds beloved doctored data... How may time we got to show you its a lie?

 

[jc456]

http://www.weather.com/news/climate/news/warmest-coldest-january-april-west-northeast

The first four months of 2015 were the warmest on record in three western states, while Florida had its hottest April on record, according to a just-released report from NOAA.

Alaska, Arizona and California each shattered their record warmest January through April period in 2015. Nevada, Oregon and Utah experienced their second warmest opening four months of any year. Five other western states chalked up a top 10 warmest January through April:

- Washington, Idaho, Wyoming: Third warmest
- Colorado: Fifth warmest
- Montana: Sixth warmest

California topped its previous record warm January through April set one year ago by 1.1 degrees Fahrenheit, an impressive feat considering temperature data averaged over many locations statewide makes a few tenths of a degree difference significant.

Enlarge
January-April 2015 temperature departures from the 20th-century average in degrees Fahrenheit. (NOAA/NCEI) (NOAA/NCEI)


But according to Mr. Westwall, this is just normal.

Curious, what was the temperature for Florida in January to March?

 

[Crick]

Blooody hot

 

[jc456]

Blooody hot

But no records I guess just normal

 

[Billy_Bob]

Blooody hot

But no records I guess just normal

They dont know how to find proof unless it is handed to them from one of their cut and paste left wing web sites.. Generalization is the issue here. Because its hot in "their" estimation actual proof doesn't matter. Florida has been below average for the year so far as has most of the US. Only five states are at or above average; Montana, Oregon, Washington, Idaho (western), and California.

 

[IanC]

The OP illustrates that GCMs use a different value for evaporation per degree temperature. Anyone want to discuss why basic principles are ignored in some situations but trumpeted in others?

 

[Crick]

Anyone care to provide evidence that basic principles are being ignored in some situation and trumpeted in others?

 

[Billy_Bob]

The OP illustrates that GCMs use a different value for evaporation per degree temperature. Anyone want to discuss why basic principles are ignored in some situations but trumpeted in others?

Its very interesting that the water vapor levels have been empirically declining just as the temps have, in correlation to their hypothesis. IF we were actually warming and having a declining water vapor levels then their theroy would be wrong, would it not?

Thieu manufactured rise in temperature is not being followed by a rise in water vapor. Just another area they thought the EL Nino would take care of and its not.

Trumpeted when its their agenda talking and ignored when it becomes a falsification of their hypothesis.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Blooody hot

Aren't you the same Crick who just lectured us that the USA is too small to count toward "Global Warming"?

 

[Billy_Bob]

Blooody hot

Aren't you the same Crick who just lectured us that the USA is too small to count toward "Global Warming"?

WOW, An object lesson in cherrypicking data and points to "prove gullible warming"...

 

[Kosh]

Climate models were built broken, just like any Microsoft product.

The climate models have not been very reliable for much of anything on any level.

 

[Kosh]

The OP illustrates that GCMs use a different value for evaporation per degree temperature. Anyone want to discuss why basic principles are ignored in some situations but trumpeted in others?

Anything that attempts to prove the AGW religion is glorified and anything that does not correspond with the AGW religion is dismissed..

 

[IanC]

Anyone care to provide evidence that basic principles are being ignored in some situation and trumpeted in others?

did you check out the first part of this thread crickham? where you told us humid air is heavier? hahahaha

but let's stop laughing at you and discuss some of the principles. the IPCC runs a bit of a pyramid scheme with its calculations. the 4W/m^2 from the instantaneous doubling of CO2 seems to get spent over and over again. supposedly that 4W will cause 1C warming if everything else remains the same.

the difference in emitted surface radiation between 15C and 16C is about 5W/m^2, so we are already 1W in the hole.

the difference in evaporation rate is about 6% per degree of warming. that's a lot of water vapour, taking a lot of latent heat upwards, past the GHG bottleneck at the surface. while I do not have a number for this, it is not free. so we are farther in the hole.

and supposedly the oceans are absorbing 90% of the excess radiation, it is not just the surface that is warming. so the original 4W is down to less than half a watt.

that's some pretty magical shit from diffuse low energy radiation that would be useless for doing any meaningful work otherwise.

 

[mamooth]

I bust up laughing every time I see Ian raving about the "GHG bottleneck at the surface". One of those odd denier memes, it appears.

Ian, I suggest you write up your novel new theory there, as well as your very peculiar energy balance claims. It will set the world on fire, as obviously nobody ever thought of such things before.

 

[jc456]

I bust up laughing every time I see Ian raving about the "GHG bottleneck at the surface". One of those odd denier memes, it appears.

Ian, I suggest you write up your novel new theory there, as well as your very peculiar energy balance claims. It will set the world on fire, as obviously nobody ever thought of such things before.

I laugh harder knowing you can't produce one experiment that shows what 120 PPM of CO2 does to temperatures.

 

[westwall]

LOL 2015 is putting our deniers in panic mode. All that water that hit Texas did not come from evaporation? Record rain there and other places in the world this year. Right in the places that there is normally a lot of rain in an El Nino year, just this year, a lot more rain than has been the norm. In the meantime, the areas normally warm and dry are even warmer and dryer. Another correct prediction borne out by the AGW theory. And it is not happening just in the remote Arctic, but right across the major population centers of this planet. And that is putting our deniers in a panic.

It is? Natural disasters have never happened before? Well, at least in your bizarre, twisted view of the world they didn't, but we who actually follow science and the scientific method, understand that it is normal.

The only people getting hysterical are you because the world ain't warming up like you hoped it would and the people are abandoning your religion.

So sad for the olfraud. Though, you were able to convince the progressive Pope over to your side. Kudos for getting more religious nuts on your side. However, we scientists know that facts will trump propaganda in the end.

Mr. Westwall, you continue to lie about what other people say, even when what was said is posted right above your lie. Show me where I said there was never any weather disasters in the past. And I really don't see you as a scientist at all. In fact, I have come to believe your are lying about your credentials.

We are right now getting more flooding in Texas and the Midwest, of top of already record floods this year. Go ahead, try to lie about that.

http://www.weather.com/forecast/regional/news/plains-rain-flood-threat-wettest-may-ranking

State climatologist Gary McManus from the Oklahoma Climatological Survey calculated the May rainfall total averaged over all Sooner State reporting stations - 14.40 inches - clobbered the previous record wet month, set in October 1941 (10.75 inches).

Not to be outdone, Texas has picked up a statewide average of 8.81 inches in May, crushing the previous record wet month of June 2004 during which a statewide average of 6.66 inches of rain fell, according to the Office of the State Climatologist at Texas A&M University.

"It has been one continuous storm after another for the past week to 10 days in several regions of the state," said Dr. John Nielsen-Gammon, Texas state climatologist in a press release Wednesday. "Spring is usually wet, but not this wet."

At one time, more than 170 locations in the central and southern Plains reported river flooding, the majority of which were in Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Arkansas, eastern Kansas and Missouri.

Many cities set a record wettest May or month including Dallas-Ft. Worth, Wichita Falls, Oklahoma City and Corpus Christi.

Yeah? So? What is your point? First you whine about the drought, and then when mother nature comes along and dumps a load of rain you whine again.

One thing I have noticed about you propagandists is you are never happy about anything. Ever. The world is doing something "crazy" or "weird" or "unprecedented" or you will use any possible word to engender fear when everything we are seeing is entirely NATURAL.

Get used to being wrong yet again.

 

[Crick]

Both are taking place (flooding and droughts) and both are weather extremes and both are climate change. When people report records broken by sizable margins, they ARE crazy and weird and unprecedented. That's what those words mean.

 

[westwall]

Both are taking place (flooding and droughts) and both are weather extremes and both are climate change. When people report records broken by sizable margins, they ARE crazy and weird and unprecedented. That's what those words mean.

And both have never stopped happening in the entire 5 billion year history of the planet, thus your attempt to link them to man made events is ridiculous.