Computer Simulations ... a history ...

[ReinyDays]

This showed up in my YouTube subscription box ... with so much discussion about the results of these computer simulations, I thought folks might benefit by knowing the history of these supercomputers ... and a note that these processing speeds are only getting faster and faster ... and that does seem to mean better and better ...

For those who claim climate models work and for those who claim climate models don't work ... The Truth is somewhere in between ... so don't be so damn cocky ...



History that deserves to be remembered ...

 

[luiza]

Population models are beyond hopeless -- see Deagle( Deagel)
Covid modelling was absurd -- see Imperial College London .

NASA was taken over by Deep State not long after WW2 and they have never told the Sheeple the truth since .
So it matters very little how fast the computers are .
If the modellers are poor and the bosses corrupt it all becomes academic and irrelevant to us .

 

[ReinyDays]

Population models are beyond hopeless -- see Deagle( Deagel)
Covid modelling was absurd -- see Imperial College London .

NASA was taken over by Deep State not long after WW2 and they have never told the Sheeple the truth since .
So it matters very little how fast the computers are .
If the modellers are poor and the bosses corrupt it all becomes academic and irrelevant to us .

Could you refine that citation a little? ... Mendel's population model has been proven robust ... we only need a slide rule to figure it ... and go ahead and tell us what Imperial College of London says ... with "trial-and-error", we'll have a lot of errors ... doesn't mean it's bad science, just bad politics ...

There was no NASA before 1958 ... what the hell are you talking about? ... just because the Moon landings were faked doesn't mean the Hubble Space Telescope was ...

=====

The topic is computer simulations ... if you don't know what that is, please do your own research ...

 

[EMH]

Model this


highly correlated satellite and balloon data showed NO WARMING in the atmosphere despite rising Co2, proving Co2 does


PRECISELY NOTHING

 

[ReinyDays]

Model this


highly correlated satellite and balloon data showed NO WARMING in the atmosphere despite rising Co2, proving Co2 does


PRECISELY NOTHING

How are you defining "correlation"? ... do you have a citation? ... did you know the Sun warms the atmosphere? ...

Do you have anything to add to this thread? ...

 

[The Duke]

How are you defining "correlation"? ... do you have a citation? ... did you know the Sun warms the atmosphere? ...

Do you have anything to add to this thread? ...

CO2 makes plants produce moar oxygen, brah.

 

[EMH]

How are you defining "correlation"? ... do you have a citation? ... did you know the Sun warms the atmosphere? ...

Do you have anything to add to this thread? ...

For example, in 1998 both the satellites and the balloons show a slight dip in atmospheric temps. Correlated = two different measures of the same thing recording the same or close to the same data.

That was the year Bill Clinton called THE WARMEST EVER....

 

[ReinyDays]

For example, in 1998 both the satellites and the balloons show a slight dip in atmospheric temps. Correlated = two different measures of the same thing recording the same or close to the same data.

That was the year Bill Clinton called THE WARMEST EVER....

The warmest ever was shortly after the Permian Mass Extinction Event ... March 18th 250,000,000 BC ...

That's an awfully tight definition of correlation ... the techniques to measure temperature from space is the mission of the GISS at NASA ... meaning we're still researching how to accurately do this thing ... and of course we don't have satellite data from before the Age of Satellites ... which makes any climate data from that source questionable, solely due to the lack of data ... we can ferret out a 100-year average from 50 years of data as long as we SAY we're ferreting out 100-year data from 50 years worth of measure ...

I think a more useful standard of correlation is just simple up and down ... if CO2 levels go up, then temperature should go up; and vis-a-vis, or come-see-come-saw ... if I remember correctly, this gives us a 58% correlation where flipping a coin is 50% correlation ... HAW HAW HAW HAW HAW HAW HAW HAW HAW HAW HAW HAW HAW HAW ... what some people believe is just insane ...

This is slide rule material ... I wanna talk computers with people who know more than me ... like you ... what do you think of fluid dynamic simulation on high speed computers? ...

 

[EMH]

The warmest ever was shortly after the Permian Mass Extinction Event ... March 18th 250,000,000 BC ...

That's an awfully tight definition of correlation ... the techniques to measure temperature from space is the mission of the GISS at NASA ... meaning we're still researching how to accurately do this thing ... and of course we don't have satellite data from before the Age of Satellites ... which makes any climate data from that source questionable, solely due to the lack of data ... we can ferret out a 100-year average from 50 years of data as long as we SAY we're ferreting out 100-year data from 50 years worth of measure ...

I think a more useful standard of correlation is just simple up and down ... if CO2 levels go up, then temperature should go up; and vis-a-vis, or come-see-come-saw ... if I remember correctly, this gives us a 58% correlation where flipping a coin is 50% correlation ... HAW HAW HAW HAW HAW HAW HAW HAW HAW HAW HAW HAW HAW HAW ... what some people believe is just insane ...

This is slide rule material ... I wanna talk computers with people who know more than me ... like you ... what do you think of fluid dynamic simulation on high speed computers? ...

The last theory on the origin of Earth is that Earth is the product of two smaller planets who collided, forming one with the "dust" forming the Moon. Right after that collision, Earth was likely kinda warm....

Not involved in developing advanced computers, but it is a fun subject. We're still waiting for something useful from all those supercomputers which told us to invest trillions trying to get fusion on Earth.

To date, there is but one way to get sustained "steady" fusion, and that is a mass 10 times Jupiter's....

As for the climate data, you are mostly correct. Satellites went up in the late 1970s, which is very important to know when discussing cane data with warmers. Before the late 1970s, we never saw nor recorded canes and tropical storms that did not hit land....

 

[ReinyDays]

The last theory on the origin of Earth is that Earth is the product of two smaller planets who collided, forming one with the "dust" forming the Moon. Right after that collision, Earth was likely kinda warm....

Not involved in developing advanced computers, but it is a fun subject. We're still waiting for something useful from all those supercomputers which told us to invest trillions trying to get fusion on Earth.

To date, there is but one way to get sustained "steady" fusion, and that is a mass 10 times Jupiter's....

As for the climate data, you are mostly correct. Satellites went up in the late 1970s, which is very important to know when discussing cane data with warmers. Before the late 1970s, we never saw nor recorded canes and tropical storms that did not hit land....

That Earth/Moon theory gets it's traction from the correct prediction of mass distribution ... it has been a puzzler why the two together have the proper ratio of iron, but the Earth has far more than ... say ... Venus or Mars ... the protoplanet collision theory gives these results ... and I believe there's a few other reasons to put great scientific stock into the idea ... it may answer why we have the liquid water on Earth as well ...

The internet runs on supercomputers ... I think that's useful ...

Hurricanes before 1970? ... huh ... there's an unnamed sub-tropical storm added to the storm list of 2013 in the Atlantic ... forecasters just missed it in real time and only picked it up months later while re-analysing the data ... meaning we miss hurricanes even with satellites ...

 

[EMH]

That Earth/Moon theory gets it's traction from the correct prediction of mass distribution ... it has been a puzzler why the two together have the proper ratio of iron, but the Earth has far more than ... say ... Venus or Mars ... the protoplanet collision theory gives these results ... and I believe there's a few other reasons to put great scientific stock into the idea ... it may answer why we have the liquid water on Earth as well ...

The internet runs on supercomputers ... I think that's useful ...

Hurricanes before 1970? ... huh ... there's an unnamed sub-tropical storm added to the storm list of 2013 in the Atlantic ... forecasters just missed it in real time and only picked it up months later while re-analysing the data ... meaning we miss hurricanes even with satellites ...

The data on storms hitting the US coast is 200+ years old. 1940s still are the strongest decade.


Earth Moon theory has a lot of data to back it up. I have yet to see a better explanation, and in the formation of a solar system, that's what happens....

A center of gravity - the Sun - grabs everything not moving on an orbit vector. Little clumps of mass emerge and keep smashing into one another. Clearly something happened in the "asteroid belt." That one looks like a "head on" collision. The two that collided in theory to make Earth were probably on similar but not exact orbits..

 

[ReinyDays]

The data on storms hitting the US coast is 200+ years old. 1940s still are the strongest decade.


Earth Moon theory has a lot of data to back it up. I have yet to see a better explanation, and in the formation of a solar system, that's what happens....

A center of gravity - the Sun - grabs everything not moving on an orbit vector. Little clumps of mass emerge and keep smashing into one another. Clearly something happened in the "asteroid belt." That one looks like a "head on" collision. The two that collided in theory to make Earth were probably on similar but not exact orbits..

The good news is that global warming should lead to fewer storm of lower intensity ... one phenomena we've seen is Arctic Amplification, the polar regions are warming twice as fast as at the equator ... theories abound as to the cause, but one effect is slower transfer of energy from the equator to the poles, as required by the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics ... hurricanes are a part of moving warm tropical air towards the cold poles ... with less temperature difference, the smaller the force driving the energy poleward ... hurricanes will have less power ... less intense and less frequent ...

Global warming is it's own negative feedback ... exactly like high pressure systems ... these are self-defeating by their very existence ... belch that CO2, suckers, I dare you ...

 

[Crick]

The good news is that global warming should lead to fewer storm of lower intensity ... one phenomena we've seen is Arctic Amplification, the polar regions are warming twice as fast as at the equator ... theories abound as to the cause, but one effect is slower transfer of energy from the equator to the poles, as required by the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics ... hurricanes are a part of moving warm tropical air towards the cold poles ... with less temperature difference, the smaller the force driving the energy poleward ... hurricanes will have less power ... less intense and less frequent ...

Global warming is it's own negative feedback ... exactly like high pressure systems ... these are self-defeating by their very existence ... belch that CO2, suckers, I dare you ...

That same drop in delta twixt the equator and the poles is responsible for the Rossby Waves that cause the polar vortices.

 

[ReinyDays]

That same drop in delta twixt the equator and the poles is responsible for the Rossby Waves that cause the polar vortices.

There's no such thing as delta force ... this is instantaneous ...

Rossby waves form along the Polar front and are a part of that structure ... a thing of matter, not energy ... and sadly, this is a convergence zone and the pseudo-adiabatic process dominates ...

What's your experiences with super-computers? ... this iMac in front of me is the faster computer I've ever used in my life ...

 

[Crick]

There's no such thing as delta force ... this is instantaneous ...

Delta force? I was talking about the same temperature differential you were just talking about. Rossby waves are created by a reduced temperature differential between the equator and the poles.

Rossby waves form along the Polar front and are a part of that structure ... a thing of matter, not energy ... and sadly, this is a convergence zone and the pseudo-adiabatic process dominates ...

Rossby waves form in the jet stream. Changing (accelerating) the way matter moves requires energy. And what do you believe to be a convergence zone and where do you believe pseudo-adiabatic process are dominating?

What's your experiences with super-computers? ... this iMac in front of me is the faster computer I've ever used in my life ...

I have used VAX and IBM mainframes for many years but never for climate data. But supercomputers are simply faster and more capable, they do not operate differently.

 

[ReinyDays]

Delta force? I was talking about the same temperature differential you were just talking about. Rossby waves are created by a reduced temperature differential between the equator and the poles.

Rossby waves form in the jet stream. Changing (accelerating) the way matter moves requires energy. And what do you believe to be a convergence zone and where do you believe pseudo-adiabatic process are dominating?

I have used VAX and IBM mainframes for many years but never for climate data. But supercomputers are simply faster and more capable, they do not operate differently.

Is that how Rossby waves work in the oceans? ... the usual cause is vorticity ... a thing of matter, not energy ... yes, I am talking about differentials, so we don't use delta ... hello? ...

So ... did any of the video make sense? ... I've worked around a PDP/11 ... like sweeping the floor and stuff ... just wondering if you'd ever been involved with fluid dynamic modelling ... you have strong opinions about the results, I thought you might have some insight others may not have ...

 

[Crick]

Is that how Rossby waves work in the oceans?

The oceans? As I just said, it is a configuration of the jet stream.

... the usual cause is vorticity ...

Vorticity? Is the cause of Rossby Waves? No.

a thing of matter, not energy ...

Eh?

yes, I am talking about differentials, so we don't use delta ... hello? ...

I write delta because I can't make a Greek delta and I'm only talking about delta as in a difference. If the temperature at the equator is 30C and at the pole its -20C, the delta is 50C.

So ... did any of the video make sense?

Yes. I studied fluid dynamics in school but that was in the late 70s, early 80s. We did not have computers capable of doing any significant work in that field. And my specialty was sonars and acoustic signal processing so I never did any CFD professionally.

... I've worked around a PDP/11 ... like sweeping the floor and stuff ... just wondering if you'd ever been involved with fluid dynamic modelling ... you have strong opinions about the results, I thought you might have some insight others may not have ...

I was running programs written by some folks at the Applied Physics Laboratory (APL) at the University of Washington and mainstained by a fellow in our group. We would record sensor data on board subs, ships and aircraft. The facility ashore provided detailed track data of the vessels and the the mobile targets or target vessels. We would then calculate the actual bearing and range from sensor to target and compare that to the bearing and range data the sensor systems (sonars, radars, ESMs, laser rangers, optical trackers, etc) would produce. We could often tell what was wrong with a sensor system by the sort of errors it made and tell the sailors how to fix their kit. That was the job. No CFD. Sorry.