Do pollsters really think they are going to fool people again?

[RDD_1210]

The polls predicted Hillary would get more votes. She did.

The polls are meant to show odds of winning. A 75% chance is not a 100% guarantee.

I know math and how odds work are tough for people who struggled with their G.E.D. and now wear a name tag to work.

 

[DOTR]

First - Rasmussen was the ONLY polster in 2016 to pick Trump, and today they are saying the Republicans will get 46% of the vote tomorrow vs 45% for the democrats ( +1 republicans).

Second - Even Nate Silver has already said he is not confident in the blue wave in a tweet.

This is Nate Silver's problems - he bases his own polls on different things but one main thing is his theory that the best funded races win. BUT, the Dems may have a lot more money in ads this year, including the highest funded democrat running, Beto, who is now behind in all polls 51% for (Cruz) to 45% (Beto). So the money means nothing.

Second - Nate is basing his prediction on the fact that democrats have won more midterms since 1924 than Republicans - BUT, Republicans have won 10 out of 12 of the last midterms since 1998. 10 out of 12 - that is a TREND, my friend. What happened before 1990 has NO BEARING on today - most of the voters he is measuring are long dead - Nate Silver is just a guy who had a good run, but who blew it badly in 2016, and is about to blow it again, I believe and hope.

Remember, most polls are run by the media, who cannot help their own bias. It is so deep they can't even see the bottom, they believe what they see is "fact" not just their own Point Of View. That is the problem with American media - they actually believe most Americans think the same way they do.

I also have not been polled politically for decades. And if I was I would probably lie - why would I want to tell the libs they need to work harder to get out the vote?

The Democrats always have more money. Silicon Valley gave 3/4 of a billion to Hillary in 2016 alone. Not to mention the billions of "in kind" support their control of the media affords.

 

[kyzr]

The polls predicted Hillary would get more votes. She did.

The polls are meant to show odds of winning. A 75% chance is not a 100% guarantee.

I know math and how odds work are tough for people who struggled with their G.E.D. and now wear a name tag to work.

BULLSHIT. Polls are supposed to provide the odds of who wins, in presidential races that is determined by the EC not PV. In case you forgot how certain Hillary's win was, please see this video promising that Trump Can't win...

 

[Ray From Cleveland]

The polls predicted Hillary would get more votes. She did.

The polls are meant to show odds of winning. A 75% chance is not a 100% guarantee.

I know math and how odds work are tough for people who struggled with their G.E.D. and now wear a name tag to work.

BULLSHIT. Polls are supposed to provide the odds of who wins, in presidential races that is determined by the EC not PV. In case you forgot how certain Hillary's win was, please see this video promising that Trump Can't win...

And in the news today, all those races that Democrats were going to clobber Republicans on are starting to tighten up all of a sudden. Gee, who could have predicted that?

 

[RDD_1210]

The polls predicted Hillary would get more votes. She did.

The polls are meant to show odds of winning. A 75% chance is not a 100% guarantee.

I know math and how odds work are tough for people who struggled with their G.E.D. and now wear a name tag to work.

BULLSHIT. Polls are supposed to provide the odds of who wins, in presidential races that is determined by the EC not PV. In case you forgot how certain Hillary's win was, please see this video promising that Trump Can't win...

You literally just repeated what I said. You're actually dumber than I thought.

 

[MarathonMike]

First - Rasmussen was the ONLY polster in 2016 to pick Trump, and today they are saying the Republicans will get 46% of the vote tomorrow vs 45% for the democrats ( +1 republicans).

Second - Even Nate Silver has already said he is not confident in the blue wave in a tweet.

This is Nate Silver's problems - he bases his own polls on different things but one main thing is his theory that the best funded races win. BUT, the Dems may have a lot more money in ads this year, including the highest funded democrat running, Beto, who is now behind in all polls 51% for (Cruz) to 45% (Beto). So the money means nothing.

Second - Nate is basing his prediction on the fact that democrats have won more midterms since 1924 than Republicans - BUT, Republicans have won 10 out of 12 of the last midterms since 1998. 10 out of 12 - that is a TREND, my friend. What happened before 1990 has NO BEARING on today - most of the voters he is measuring are long dead - Nate Silver is just a guy who had a good run, but who blew it badly in 2016, and is about to blow it again, I believe and hope.

Remember, most polls are run by the media, who cannot help their own bias. It is so deep they can't even see the bottom, they believe what they see is "fact" not just their own Point Of View. That is the problem with American media - they actually believe most Americans think the same way they do.

I also have not been polled politically for decades. And if I was I would probably lie - why would I want to tell the libs they need to work harder to get out the vote?

The Democrats always have more money. Silicon Valley gave 3/4 of a billion to Hillary in 2016 alone. Not to mention the billions in "in kind" support their control of the media affords.

I would love to know what the Democrats spent on Kyrsten Sinema's campaign in Arizona. They have totally bought Sinema into a tie with McSally.

 

[eagle1462010]

Wednesday morning there will be winners and losers.........Same as always.........some talking heads may be close to right.......others not so much................

I don't put faith in polls..............They are edjumacated guesses anyways................

 

[Ray From Cleveland]

Wednesday morning there will be winners and losers.........Same as always.........some talking heads may be close to right.......others not so much................

I don't put faith in polls..............They are edjumacated guesses anyways................

How do you put faith in something that is bias? First the blue wave which people quit talking about a month or so ago. The reporting on Donald Trump in the media has been 93% negative. And many polls just give you results without demographics or the phrasing of the questions asked.

Then you have to rely that people are telling the truth, and the weather is favorable for people to go out and actually vote.

It's just too inaccurate and too many variables to depend on anything when it comes to political predictions.

 

[rightwinger]

If you don’t want to believe the polls ......you don’t have to

Right now they predict Dems taking the House by ten seats
Republicans pick up a seat in the Senate
Democrats picking up Governorships to draw within 24-26

If polls are worthless
Let’s see how close they come

They have been off time and time again..........Heard they predict the landfalls of Hurricanes too..........every once and a while they get that right too...............LOL

We will find out tomorrow how accurate the polls were
It is more than “you got lucky this time” since they are predicting the results of hundreds of separate elections in 50 states

 

[rightwinger]

The polls predicted Hillary would get more votes. She did.

The polls are meant to show odds of winning. A 75% chance is not a 100% guarantee.

I know math and how odds work are tough for people who struggled with their G.E.D. and now wear a name tag to work.

BULLSHIT. Polls are supposed to provide the odds of who wins, in presidential races that is determined by the EC not PV. In case you forgot how certain Hillary's win was, please see this video promising that Trump Can't win...

And in the news today, all those races that Democrats were going to clobber Republicans on are starting to tighten up all of a sudden. Gee, who could have predicted that?

The races typically tighten up in the days before the election
Latest polls have Dems winning some tight races

We shall see

 

[Ray From Cleveland]

If you don’t want to believe the polls ......you don’t have to

Right now they predict Dems taking the House by ten seats
Republicans pick up a seat in the Senate
Democrats picking up Governorships to draw within 24-26

If polls are worthless
Let’s see how close they come

They have been off time and time again..........Heard they predict the landfalls of Hurricanes too..........every once and a while they get that right too...............LOL

We will find out tomorrow how accurate the polls were
It is more than “you got lucky this time” since they are predicting the results of hundreds of separate elections in 50 states

And what would you consider accurate? What the polls say tomorrow or what they said two weeks ago?

 

[DOTR]

Wednesday morning there will be winners and losers.........Same as always.........some talking heads may be close to right.......others not so much................

I don't put faith in polls..............They are edjumacated guesses anyways................

Not so educated of late. In fact you could say they did worse than simply flipping a coin would have lately.

 

[rightwinger]

If you don’t want to believe the polls ......you don’t have to

Right now they predict Dems taking the House by ten seats
Republicans pick up a seat in the Senate
Democrats picking up Governorships to draw within 24-26

If polls are worthless
Let’s see how close they come

They have been off time and time again..........Heard they predict the landfalls of Hurricanes too..........every once and a while they get that right too...............LOL

We will find out tomorrow how accurate the polls were
It is more than “you got lucky this time” since they are predicting the results of hundreds of separate elections in 50 states

And what would you consider accurate? What the polls say tomorrow or what they said two weeks ago?

Whatever the polls say today
Two weeks ago was two weeks ago

 

[Ray From Cleveland]

If you don’t want to believe the polls ......you don’t have to

Right now they predict Dems taking the House by ten seats
Republicans pick up a seat in the Senate
Democrats picking up Governorships to draw within 24-26

If polls are worthless
Let’s see how close they come

They have been off time and time again..........Heard they predict the landfalls of Hurricanes too..........every once and a while they get that right too...............LOL

We will find out tomorrow how accurate the polls were
It is more than “you got lucky this time” since they are predicting the results of hundreds of separate elections in 50 states

And what would you consider accurate? What the polls say tomorrow or what they said two weeks ago?

Whatever the polls say today
Two weeks ago was two weeks ago

So in other words, even you admit that polls are designed to try and convince people rather than report what people actually think.

 

[rightwinger]

Do pollsters fool the people or do the people fool the pollsters?

I have a feeling that the errors in 2016 were because Trump voters were more likely to be “Go fuk yourself” voters

When pollsters called Trump voters, they replied..Go fuk yourself

 

[rightwinger]

If you don’t want to believe the polls ......you don’t have to

Right now they predict Dems taking the House by ten seats
Republicans pick up a seat in the Senate
Democrats picking up Governorships to draw within 24-26

If polls are worthless
Let’s see how close they come

They have been off time and time again..........Heard they predict the landfalls of Hurricanes too..........every once and a while they get that right too...............LOL

We will find out tomorrow how accurate the polls were
It is more than “you got lucky this time” since they are predicting the results of hundreds of separate elections in 50 states

And what would you consider accurate? What the polls say tomorrow or what they said two weeks ago?

Whatever the polls say today
Two weeks ago was two weeks ago

So in other words, even you admit that polls are designed to try and convince people rather than report what people actually think.

What a ridiculous conclusion

The polls reflect what people at THAT TIME were thinking

 

[Thinker101]

Do pollsters fool the people or do the people fool the pollsters?

I have a feeling that the errors in 2016 were because Trump voters were more likely to be “Go fuk yourself” voters

When pollsters called Trump voters, they replied..Go fuk yourself

Yup, most brilliant thing you've said this year.

 

[Ray From Cleveland]

They have been off time and time again..........Heard they predict the landfalls of Hurricanes too..........every once and a while they get that right too...............LOL

We will find out tomorrow how accurate the polls were
It is more than “you got lucky this time” since they are predicting the results of hundreds of separate elections in 50 states

And what would you consider accurate? What the polls say tomorrow or what they said two weeks ago?

Whatever the polls say today
Two weeks ago was two weeks ago

So in other words, even you admit that polls are designed to try and convince people rather than report what people actually think.

What a ridiculous conclusion

The polls reflect what people at THAT TIME were thinking

Right......they just happen to be thinking a whole different way just before an election compared to what they thought three weeks ago.

I knew who I was going to vote for three months ago; most people do. The reason the polls tighten up near the election is so they don't have their name tarnished for next election. They knew all along how close these races were but reported just the opposite to get people to think their candidate isn't worth the time to go out and vote for.

 

[Ray From Cleveland]

Do pollsters fool the people or do the people fool the pollsters?

I have a feeling that the errors in 2016 were because Trump voters were more likely to be “Go fuk yourself” voters

When pollsters called Trump voters, they replied..Go fuk yourself

Which of course you have no proof of.

 

[DOTR]

I never get polled........LOL.......I don't answer SPAM calls.............LOL

And if you ever do get polled..lie to them. There has been a movement to do so for some time now.

Lying to Pollsters: Is it Ethical? Is it Desirable? Is it Effective?