game theory and artificial intelligence in mutual assured destruction

[rampart]

Mutual assured destruction is famously modeled by the game of "chicken," a children's game in which internal combustion engines are used to prove masculinity.

Chicken is a simple enough game. winner is determined by which adolescent is crazy enough to careen wildly into a head on collision rather than admit to being "chicken."

The payoff table is also simple. If one driver is sane enough to realize that other driver is crazy he veers away from the crash and lives, but forever shamed as a "chicken.' the crazy guy also lives, but is rewarded with the cheers and accolades of the girls.

If both players retain a shred of sanity, of course, both slow down, exit the car, and shake hands. It really is a stupid game. It really is the only game that matters.

looks like it could be an article ("Why the President Must be Crazy") but wonder if any information is credible. Rand is fairly secretive.....

 

[Donald H]

Mutual assured destruction is famously modeled by the game of "chicken," a children's game in which internal combustion engines are used to prove masculinity.

Chicken is a simple enough game. winner is determined by which adolescent is crazy enough to careen wildly into a head on collision rather than admit to being "chicken."

The payoff table is also simple. If one driver is sane enough to realize that other driver is crazy he veers away from the crash and lives, but forever shamed as a "chicken.' the crazy guy also lives, but is rewarded with the cheers and accolades of the girls.

If both players retain a shred of sanity, of course, both slow down, exit the car, and shake hands. It really is a stupid game. It really is the only game that matters.

looks like it could be an article ("Why the President Must be Crazy") but wonder if any information is credible. Rand is fairly secretive.....

Is there a hidden message in that?

Who is Rand and what's his message? Did you forget a link?

 

[rampart]

Is there a hidden message in that?

Who is Rand and what's his message? Did you forget a link?

rand corporaqtion provides analysis and recommendation to defense decision makers, and others i am sure.

as to the rest, maybe drifted from" why we no longer need a crazy president " into the wild blue yonder sorry.

 

[Donald H]

rand corporaqtion provides analysis and recommendation to defense decision makers, and others i am sure.

thank you.

as to the rest, maybe drifted from" why we no longer need a crazy president " into the wild blue yonder sorry.

I was thinking that your mention of ID could contain a message. But first off, the game of chicken doesn't identify MAD.

 

[rampart]

thank you.

I was thinking that your mention of ID could contain a message. But first off, the game of chicken doesn't identify MAD.

if course not. kids have been riding horses towards each other at high speed with lances pointed for centuries before destruction became mutually assured. boys will be boys.

https://www.rand.org/pubs/papers/P7336.html

 

[Zavulon]

In fact, nuclear strategies are not just about MAD, but about many other things. One could recommend, say, Herman Kahn's "On Thermonuclear war".

 

[Zavulon]

And, talking about AI (or, be more specific, about chat-bots) all of them prefer escalation.

AI chatbots tend to choose violence and nuclear strikes in wargames

As the US military begins integrating AI technology, simulated wargames show how chatbots behave unpredictably and risk nuclear escalation

www.newscientist.com

 

[Donald H]

In fact, nuclear strategies are not just about MAD, but about many other things. One could recommend, say, Herman Kahn's "On Thermonuclear war".

Can you elaborate?

 

[Zavulon]

Can you elaborate?

The book consist of three lectures, three chapters each. First one - about possibility and survivability of the nuclear war. German Kahn explains in it popular in his time myths about nuclear weapon, including the one about possibility of the total annihilation. (in modern Russian translation they added the modern myths like "nuclear winter" and "californian bullets"). Second lecture is about strains and strategies, in which he discuss both example with "the chicken game", as well as conception of the hypotetical "Doomsday machine" and three types of deterrence. (in the Russian translation they added few indirect strategies as well as the deterrence of a suicidal foe). The third lecture is about eight world wars - two from the real past, two from hypothetical past (before 1960) and four about possible future wars. (In translation they added hypothetical world wars in 1962-63, as result of Cuban Missile crisis, nuclear war in Europe in 1985, and possible nuclear wars in 2025 and 2033).

Nice book, I really recommend to read it.

 

[Donald H]

The book consist of three lectures, three chapters each. First one - about possibility and survivability of the nuclear war. German Kahn explains in it popular in his time myths about nuclear weapon, including the one about possibility of the total annihilation. (in modern Russian translation they added the modern myths like "nuclear winter" and "californian bullets"). Second lecture is about strains and strategies, in which he discuss both example with "the chicken game", as well as conception of the hypotetical "Doomsday machine" and three types of deterrence. (in the Russian translation they added few indirect strategies as well as the deterrence of a suicidal foe). The third lecture is about eight world wars - two from the real past, two from hypothetical past (before 1960) and four about possible future wars. (In translation they added hypothetical world wars in 1962-63, as result of Cuban Missile crisis, nuclear war in Europe in 1985, and possible nuclear wars in 2025 and 2033).

Nice book, I really recommend to read it.

Thanks for that. I wouldn't agree with most of that, but I would not find it productive to speculate on 'survivability' especially right now. I'll recommend reading 'On the Beach' for you.

In any case, I'll just speculate on there being hundreds of millions or billions dead and more billions suffering slow deaths.

We two can at least bring the different possibilities to our audiences!

 

[rampart]

In fact, nuclear strategies are not just about MAD, but about many other things. One could recommend, say, Herman Kahn's "On Thermonuclear war".

the games can become very complex, the rules are dynamic , payoff tables are determined by the winners of our political games and such.

i'm just wondering at at the role played by artificial intelligence in the process. that would be the reason artificial intelligence exists.

i will read kahn's book, thanks.

 

[Zavulon]

Mutual assured destruction is famously modeled by the game of "chicken," a children's game in which internal combustion engines are used to prove masculinity.

Chicken is a simple enough game. winner is determined by which adolescent is crazy enough to careen wildly into a head on collision rather than admit to being "chicken."

The payoff table is also simple. If one driver is sane enough to realize that other driver is crazy he veers away from the crash and lives, but forever shamed as a "chicken.' the crazy guy also lives, but is rewarded with the cheers and accolades of the girls.

If both players retain a shred of sanity, of course, both slow down, exit the car, and shake hands. It really is a stupid game. It really is the only game that matters.

looks like it could be an article ("Why the President Must be Crazy") but wonder if any information is credible. Rand is fairly secretive.....

And what is really important is the price of defeat and the value of the possible prize.
I mean, if (very big if) you are playing this game as the only chance to spread your genes, or the prize is vitally necessary resource, it's losing strategy to be defeated as a chicken. If you turn - you are anyway dead. If you do not turn - you have some non zero chances to survive.

 

[rampart]

And, talking about AI (or, be more specific, about chat-bots) all of them prefer escalation.

AI chatbots tend to choose violence and nuclear strikes in wargames

As the US military begins integrating AI technology, simulated wargames show how chatbots behave unpredictably and risk nuclear escalation

www.newscientist.com

i'm sure they find us to be inconvenient at best.

 

[rampart]

And what is really important is the price of defeat and the value of the possible prize.
I mean, if (very big if) you are playing this game as the only chance to spread your genes, or the prize is vitally necessary resource, it's losing strategy to be defeated as a chicken. If you turn - you are anyway dead. If you do not turn - you have some non zero chances to survive.

no one ever said the game was fun.

 

[rampart]

The book consist of three lectures, three chapters each. First one - about possibility and survivability of the nuclear war. German Kahn explains in it popular in his time myths about nuclear weapon, including the one about possibility of the total annihilation. (in modern Russian translation they added the modern myths like "nuclear winter" and "californian bullets"). Second lecture is about strains and strategies, in which he discuss both example with "the chicken game", as well as conception of the hypotetical "Doomsday machine" and three types of deterrence. (in the Russian translation they added few indirect strategies as well as the deterrence of a suicidal foe). The third lecture is about eight world wars - two from the real past, two from hypothetical past (before 1960) and four about possible future wars. (In translation they added hypothetical world wars in 1962-63, as result of Cuban Missile crisis, nuclear war in Europe in 1985, and possible nuclear wars in 2025 and 2033).

Nice book, I really recommend to read it.

hmmm am i talking about a "doomsday machine. " dr strangelove style , but upgraded not to need peter sellers?

 

[Zavulon]

Thanks for that. I wouldn't agree with most of that, but I would not find it productive to speculate on 'survivability' especially right now. I'll recommend reading 'On the Beach' for you.

Nice book. I've read it. But the very plot is based on the wide usage of Cobalt bombs. And, as far as I know, nobody make them. It's military useless. Fallouts will be the minor problem in the future war.

In any case, I'll just speculate on there being hundreds of millions or billions dead and more billions suffering slow deaths.

It depends. If our first counter-force strike will be successful, and then you surrender, then in the USA will die less than 5 million of American civilians. May be - less than one million. If you do not surrender and prefer to retaliate, when we are ready, then your counter-value retaliation won't kill more than 1 million of Russian civilians, but our third strike will kill more that 30 millions of Americans and destroy vital infrastructure, which will decrease the US population to 10% of the pre-war level in few years.

We two can at least bring the different possibilities to our audiences!

Yes, we can discuss possibilities, but we should talk about real possibilities, not about some fictional books.

 

[Zavulon]

no one ever said the game was fun.

Sometimes such games are necessary.

 

[Zavulon]

hmmm am i talking about a "doomsday machine. " dr strangelove style , but upgraded not to need peter sellers?

Actually, Herman Kahn was the prototype for Dr. Strangelove.

 

[rampart]

Actually, Herman Kahn was the prototype for Dr. Strangelove.

ahhh perhaps i have read that , " long ago in a galaxy far away"

 

[Zavulon]

no one ever said the game was fun.

So, let's discuss the game with the higher stakes.
There are two players - Anton and Brad. The bet is Anton's sister Camila, kept by Brad's gang in captivity.
Possible outcomes - if Anton wins (Brad played chicken), he took his sister and they both safely leave the gameboard and Brad just lost some respect in his gang. If Anton play chiken - the gang will chop off his hands, rape his sister and then, likely, kill them both. (and Brad's rating in the gang will be increased). If both are dead, than the gang is dismissed and Camila have a good chance to escape and survive. If Anton refuse to play - the gang will definitely rape and kill his sister and, likely, then will find and kill Anton.

What is the sane strategy in the game with those stakes?