Historian that predicted 9 out of the last 10 election is predicting Harris will win

[Rocko]

Historian who accurately predicted 9 of last 10 presidential elections makes his 2024 pick

Historian Allan Lichtman has announced his prediction on whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will win the 2024 presidential election.

www.usatoday.com

The Trump campaign was caught flat footed by Harris. I think 2024 is going to be an embarrassment for Trump, so he’ll cry foul play, but that won’t change the fact that he’ll never be president again

 

[Auld Phart]

"Historian that predicted 9 out of the last 10 election "

so, he's not infallible?

 

[kyzr]

I'd sooner believe the IBD (most accurate pollster) than some professor.

Actually they should track several "Professors" to see who has the most accurate prediction model.

 

[Rocko]

"Historian that predicted 9 out of the last 10 election "

so, he's not infallible?

I didn’t say that, but if the guy is correct 90% of the time, maybe you should take notice

 

[Mikeoxenormous]

Historian who accurately predicted 9 of last 10 presidential elections makes his 2024 pick

Historian Allan Lichtman has announced his prediction on whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will win the 2024 presidential election.

www.usatoday.com

The Trump campaign was caught flat footed by Harris. I think 2024 is going to be an embarrassment for Trump, so he’ll cry foul play, but that won’t change the fact that he’ll never be president again

Well, then you dont need to go out and vote for the Camel Toe Harris, if she already has won right?

 

[toobfreak]

Allan Lichtman​

Never heard of him.

The keys include whether:

The sitting president is running for reelection.

The sitting president is NOT running for reelection.

There is a third-party challenger.

There is NOT a third party challenger. He has dropped out.

The short-term economy is strong.

The economy is NOT strong. The economy is one of the biggest areas of complaint by people, inflation, high costs.

The long-term economic growth has been as good as the last two terms.

Growth is largely based on recovering from a national lockdown for two years.

The White House party has made major changes to national policy.

All of them bad.

There is sustained social unrest during the term.

Much of it against Biden/Harris. Besides, wasn't there social unrest in 2020 (George Floyd)? How did that help Trump?

The White House is untainted by scandal, the incumbent party is charismatic.

Biden charismatic? Harris charismatic? You gotta be kidding. And scandal? Walz is being subpoenaed, Hunter just pleaded guilty to felonies and Biden has been charged with taking bribes for foreign favors.

The challenger is uncharismatic.

Trump is the most charismatic candidate in a generation.

The incumbent is charismatic.

There is no incumbent. Harris is in office, but only as a VP who has hid these past 4 years.

The White House party has a major failure in foreign policy.

So that makes Harris more likely to win?

The White House party has foreign policy success.

I'd like to know what? Sending missiles to Ukraine to fight a futile war?

The Trump campaign was caught flat footed by Harris.

How?

I think 2024 is going to be an embarrassment for Trump, so he’ll cry foul play, but that won’t change the fact that he’ll never be president again

If the above is the sole reasons for this guy to think Harris will win, I find his conclusions specious and flawed.

 

[toobfreak]

I didn’t say that, but if the guy is correct 90% of the time, maybe you should take notice

They were 98% sure Hillary would win too.

 

[dudmuck]

I'd sooner believe the IBD (most accurate pollster) than some professor.

Actually they should track several "Professors" to see who has the most accurate prediction model.

actually not trustworthy according to 538

IBD/TIPP Doctors Poll Is Not Trustworthy

I’m flying 35,000 feet somewhere over Eastern Ohio now — isn’t technology wonderful? — so I can only comment on this briefly, but the Investors’ Business Dail…

fivethirtyeight.com

 

[kyzr]

actually not trustworthy according to 538

Editor's Note: IBD no longer publishes this poll.

The most accurate poll is no longer available...why am I not surprised?

 

[lafayette]

Well, duh. Of course, she will win.

 

[Hellbilly]

"Historian that predicted 9 out of the last 10 election "

so, he's not infallible?

 

[Auld Phart]

I didn’t say that, but if the guy is correct 90% of the time, maybe you should take notice

I did take notice.

I noticed he's not infallible.

 

[TNHarley]

I think its funny how everyone is forgetting about jill stein.
The Ds are bleeding out voters over gaza and their lack of actually doing anything. And they certainly arent voting for the fat ass.
Sure, she wont get a lot of votes compared the duopoly, but it dont take much to sway a swing state. Like Michigan.

 

[mamooth]

Given how Gore really won, he's 10 out of 10.

He was even right in 2016, when Nate Silver was wrong. Thus, all the Trump cultists say to trust Nate Silver.

 

[rightwinger]

Historian that predicted 9 out of the last 10 election is predicting​

Big deal, I have predicted 9 out of the last 10 elections
Missed on Trump