Historian who correctly predicted every election since 1984 says Trump will lose

[TheParser]

I don't need no historian to tell me that President Trump is gonna lose!

For the last 4 years the Dems, the media, the Deep State, the military, academia, and a million activist groups (BLM being the most notorious) have been hammering him. Any other guy would have quit long before now.

Add to the mix the COVID-19 tragedy and the voting by mail fiasco, how could the poor guy possibly win?

I wish him the very best. He will need it. On January 20, the jackals are coming after him.

 

[Natural Citizen]

is the video posted on here anywhere?

Its in the last minuet of this video. Its priceless...

lolol. That was funny.

Oh....wait...uh oh...she took it all.

 

[BluesLegend]

I watched that idiot present his case, he's a moron. Plus most of the issues are DEMOCRAT issues not Trump's issues. It's Dem states and Dem cities people are looting and burning, Dems created the problem and Dems are responsible for fixing the problem. Also absent from this clowns theory was that president Trump has tried repeatedly to sent assistance to these Dem cities and the Dem governors and mayors have refused the offer.

There I just obliterated this thread.

LOL. You did no such thing. The flaw in your "analysis" is that people don't differentiate between these things. If things are going good they give credit to the president. If things are going bad they blame the president. That is why despite the rioting and looting in New York and California in Democratic run cities Trump is still losing those states by 25 to 30 points in every poll.

Please your thread is toast, destroyed by facts I presented. As much as you anti Trump people are trying to blame president Trump for Covid and the riots/unrest the American people know CHINA and Democrats are responsible. You can't win on the issues so you fake and spin and spew dishonesty. Newsflash the American people don't like to be lied to.

 

[WTH_Progs?]

Just another reason to make Trump's impending victory so rich.

The guy's math failed to account we've never been here before. COVID for starts, and the unrest & economic decline has been the intentional work of PROGS.

 

[TemplarKormac]

I'm actually diving into the raw analytics of this election. I can say for a fact that historian is dead wrong.

Interesting fact here, for the factually challenged:

There have been 11 instances where an American presidential incumbent was running for re-election during a pandemic (since 1820)

Each one of them won re-election. They are 11-0.

People understand that pandemics and outbreaks eventually pass. People want to sustain themselves and their families, and they know poverty will kill them far faster than COVID-19 will.

Prove me wrong. Prove history wrong.

That historian is peddling garbage.

 

[HereWeGoAgain]

Trump rallies in the tens of thousands around the country

Which simply means he still has a dedicated base of supporters. It doesn't mean they constitute a majority of those voting.

Ask Bernie Sanders how much those big rallies meant.

The dems fucked bernie over so crowd size didnt matter in his case.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

Of the 13 predictive "keys" Trump has lost seven of the 13 keys and will lose based on Lichtman's formula which so far has been foolproof.

Historian who correctly predicted every election since 1984 makes his call

American University Professor Allan Lichtman joins 'The Story' to explain why he thinks Joe Biden will beat Donald Trump

news.yahoo.com

I predict he'll be wrong

 

[Billy_Bob]

Dems in shear panic.... 75% of Blacks and Latinos have yet to place there votes in Pennsylvania.....

 

[2aguy]

Of the 13 predictive "keys" Trump has lost seven of the 13 keys and will lose based on Lichtman's formula which so far has been foolproof.

Historian who correctly predicted every election since 1984 makes his call

American University Professor Allan Lichtman joins 'The Story' to explain why he thinks Joe Biden will beat Donald Trump

news.yahoo.com

I saw him interviewed, and I heard his "Keys," for this election and I think he is wrong on several of them, interpreting them the wrong way.....but we will see...

Another guy who says that since 1912 primary turnout has determined 25 out of the 27 Presidential elections....using that method he predicts a Trump win, we will see....

So, what Chapman did was compile a thread that cuts through a lot of the liberal media silliness out there. For starters, he nixes the idea that bad economies kill incumbents. Yes, that was the case for Bush 41, but historically the incumbent party is 12-11 when facing re-election during an economic downturn.


And speaking of incumbents, Chapman added, “no incumbent who has received at least 75% of the primary vote has lost re-election. Donald Trump received 94% of the primary vote, which is the 4th highest all-time. Higher than Eisenhower, Nixon, Clinton, and Obama.”

Oh, and it gets better.

“Three times in history America has faced a pandemic, recession, and civil unrest during an election year. The incumbent party is 3-0 in those elections,” wrote Chapman “What about polls? Well, polls are predicting Trump's win. The ABC poll shows Trump with a 19-point enthusiasm advantage.”

He noted that every candidate who held the edge in voter enthusiasm since 1988 has won the election.
-----

In fact, no incumbent who has received at least 75% of the primary vote has lost re-election. Donald Trump received 94% of the primary vote, which is the 4th highest all-time. Higher than Eisenhower, Nixon, Clinton, and Obama.

--------

Since 2004, the candidate that led in google searches has won the election. Trump leads Biden in google searches by a ratio of 3 to 1.
-------

The One Metric That Has Decided Every Presidential Winner Since 1988...And Trump Has a Lock on It

townhall.com

Again...we will see who is right.

 

[2aguy]

Of the 13 predictive "keys" Trump has lost seven of the 13 keys and will lose based on Lichtman's formula which so far has been foolproof.

Historian who correctly predicted every election since 1984 makes his call

American University Professor Allan Lichtman joins 'The Story' to explain why he thinks Joe Biden will beat Donald Trump

news.yahoo.com

I predict he'll be wrong

I saw lichtman interviewed on "Valuetainement" on youtube......I think he is interpreting his own keys wrong for this election.....for example, one key is a good economy...he says since the economy got trashed by the pandemic, Trump loses this key.....but, before the pandemic Trump had a booming economy, and now has a V shaped recovery with the biggest GDP growth for 3rd quarter in history...

So I don't think he is interpreting his own keys accurately......

 

[2aguy]

Of the 13 predictive "keys" Trump has lost seven of the 13 keys and will lose based on Lichtman's formula which so far has been foolproof.

Historian who correctly predicted every election since 1984 makes his call

American University Professor Allan Lichtman joins 'The Story' to explain why he thinks Joe Biden will beat Donald Trump

news.yahoo.com

and this...

The PRIMARY MODEL gives President Donald Trump a 91% chance of winning the 2020 presidential election, with Democrat Joe Biden having just a 9% chance. Trump would get 362 electoral votes, Biden 176. This forecast is unconditional and final; hence not subject to any updating. It was first posted March 2, 2020, on Twitter.

In 2016, when polls, pundits and forecasters were all predicting a certain victory for Hillary Clinton, the PRIMARY MODEL was practically alone in predicting Donald Trump’s victory. It did so as early as March 7 that year, putting his chance of winning at 87%. 2016 — The Primary Model.

It is a statistical model that relies on presidential primaries and, in addition, on an election cycle as predictors of the vote in the general election. This year the model has been calibrated to predict the Electoral College vote.

For the record, the PRIMARY MODEL picks the winner of 25 out of 27 elections since 1912, when presidential primaries were introduced. The misses are 1960, one of the closest presidential elections, and 2000, when the late count in Florida handed Bush the victory; still Al Gore wound up winning the popular vote.
----

Winning the early primaries is a major key for electoral victory in November. On the Democratic side, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders split the primaries in New Hampshire and South Carolina while Trump handily won the Republican Primary in New Hampshire (the GOP primary in South Carolina was cancelled this year).
What favors Trump in 2020 as well is the cycle of presidential elections operating for nearly 200 years, as illustrated by the snapshot since 1960. After one term in the White House the incumbent party is favored to win re-election unlike the situation when it has held office for two or more terms.

To capture the effects of this electoral cycle and of the nominees’ primary performances, the Primary Model uses data from elections going back as far as 1912. That was the year when presidential primaries were introduced. As it turned out, the candidate who won his party’s primary vote in 1912, Woodrow Wilson, went on to defeat the candidate who had lost his party’s primary vote, William Howard Taft. From then on, as illustrated by a representative set of elections (1964, 1980, and 2012), the candidate with the better primary vote tended to win the general election.

For elections prior to 1952 all primaries were included. Beginning in 1952, only the New Hampshire Primary has been used, as a rule. South Carolina has been added for elections since 2008. Both Obama then and Hillary Clinton in 2016 enjoyed strong support in a large and most loyal Democratic constituency, African-Americans, who are few in numbers in New Hampshire. So did Joe Biden this year in relying on South Carolina as his “firewall.”

The Primary Model

primary model is a scientific model of forecasting election results. The Primary Model forecasts presidential elections with great accuracy. Author of The Primary Model, Helmut Norpoth. Political Scientist and Professor at Stony Brook University.

primarymodel.com

 

[2aguy]

Of the 13 predictive "keys" Trump has lost seven of the 13 keys and will lose based on Lichtman's formula which so far has been foolproof.

Historian who correctly predicted every election since 1984 makes his call

American University Professor Allan Lichtman joins 'The Story' to explain why he thinks Joe Biden will beat Donald Trump

news.yahoo.com

I predict he'll be wrong

Also...another key is riots and civil unrest......lichtman says we have that, so Trump loses that "key." But......the riots are joe biden voters in democrat party cities.....no one is blaming Trump for the riots, and a lot of people are stating they are voting Trump specifically due to these riots....

Lichtman mentions the riots in the 1960s.......and how they went against LBJ......but Nixon also had riots and he won re-election...

So again, I think lichtman is blinded by Trump and isn't seeing his keys properly...

But we will see....

 

[2aguy]

I watched that idiot present his case, he's a moron. Plus most of the issues are DEMOCRAT issues not Trump's issues. It's Dem states and Dem cities people are looting and burning, Dems created the problem and Dems are responsible for fixing the problem. Also absent from this clowns theory was that president Trump has tried repeatedly to sent assistance to these Dem cities and the Dem governors and mayors have refused the offer.

There I just obliterated this thread.

Yep....I think he is not interpreting his "keys" accurately....especially on the economy and the riots.....

 

[Sun Devil 92]

Of the 13 predictive "keys" Trump has lost seven of the 13 keys and will lose based on Lichtman's formula which so far has been foolproof.

Historian who correctly predicted every election since 1984 makes his call

American University Professor Allan Lichtman joins 'The Story' to explain why he thinks Joe Biden will beat Donald Trump

news.yahoo.com

See you on November 3rd.

The only thing that counts.

 

[2aguy]

Of the 13 predictive "keys" Trump has lost seven of the 13 keys and will lose based on Lichtman's formula which so far has been foolproof.

Historian who correctly predicted every election since 1984 makes his call

American University Professor Allan Lichtman joins 'The Story' to explain why he thinks Joe Biden will beat Donald Trump

news.yahoo.com

I predict he'll be wrong

Lichtman also points out "Scandal," and counts that as against Trump in his "keys," but the "scandal" was fake, and now we have the biden actually involved in a real scandal....no one remembers that Trump was impeached on another fake scandal.

He has Trump Derangement syndrome and uses his impeachment as the "scandal," that counts against Trump....but it was a fake impeachment that no one cares about.

He stated "watergate," but nixon actually did what he did, Trump did not, and the Trump impeachment was a partisan hit job....so again, I think he isn't seeing this "key," properly.

 

[TemplarKormac]

Hey Dont Taz Me Bro

Any reason you think my posts are funny? Normally people on this board who can't dispute the facts tend to think my posts are funny. Are you one of them?

 

[2aguy]

Lictman also counts as no success in foreign policy.....citing North Korea and Syria against Trump....but not including the peace deals in the middle east that Trump has achieved....so again, that "key," is not being accurately used by this guy...

Lichtman, suffering from TDS, states that the UAE treaty with Israel is a sham so it doesn't count for Trump...see what I mean? He isn't accurately reporting his own keys.....

Then he talks about the "Charisma," keys......he dings Trump on this, but gives biden the key because he is a "decent guy" but doesn't take into account the "enthusiasm' gap among biden voters or the support Trump gets from Blacks and hispanics...

So...we will see....

 

[2aguy]

Of the 13 predictive "keys" Trump has lost seven of the 13 keys and will lose based on Lichtman's formula which so far has been foolproof.

Historian who correctly predicted every election since 1984 makes his call

American University Professor Allan Lichtman joins 'The Story' to explain why he thinks Joe Biden will beat Donald Trump

news.yahoo.com

I predict he'll be wrong

Lichtman calls the first "key" against Trump since the republicans took a beating in the 2018 races....and I think he is not seeing that "key" accurately.

Republicans lost the house...because republicans saw the establishment republicans not supporting Trump....but gave the Republican Senate two more Senators....after the kavanaugh hearing...and how they fought and supported not only Kavanaugh, but Trump....and saw Trump fight for Kavanaugh....

The Republicans took a beating in 2018 because 1) the base saw they were not protecting Trump from the democrats, 2) the republicans didn't support Trump on the wall 3) The republicans were seen to be distancing themselves from Trump because of the fake Russian hoax....

Meanwhile, Trump himself had an over 90% approval rating among republicans and holds the lead in the enthusiasm gap over biden....

Voters weren't against Trump in 2018, republicans hate the establishment republicans who failed Trump....

Remember, the Republicans lost the house....because republicans couldn't stand spineless republican establishment assholes....but won 2 more seats in the Republican senate......and Trump wasn't on the ticket...

But we will see...

For example....Lindsey Graham...remember, actual Republicans couldn't stand John McCain, and lindsey Graham was always his side kick.......



One thing that could work in Graham's favor is his expanded voter base on the right. Since 2014, and especially since the 2018 death of his close friend, Sen. John McCain, Graham's alliances in the Senate have shifted toward more solidly conservative members.




"Where Lindsey was a maverick with John McCain, he is now seen as a true conservative," said former South Carolina Republican Party Chairman Katon Dawson. "That was the complaint conservatives had with Lindsey in the last election cycle that is no longer there."

Graham's conservative profile also rose considerably during his impassioned defense of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, whose contentious, high-stakes confirmation hearings in Graham's Judiciary Committee drew a large national TV audience in 2018.

Why Lindsey Graham faces his toughest battle for reelection

As the South Carolina Senate race enters the homestretch, Graham's opponent, Jaime Harrison, is set to outspend the high-profile Republican.

justthenews.com

 

[2aguy]

Just another reason to make Trump's impending victory so rich.

The guy's math failed to account we've never been here before. COVID for starts, and the unrest & economic decline has been the intentional work of PROGS.

And something he doesn't see....? Gallup poll on "Are you better off now than you were 4 years ago?" Taken in September, in the middle of the chinese flu mess....?

56% said they were still better off..........obama number? 44%, and he won re-election.....

Another reason I don't think lichtman is intepreting his key accurately....

 

[Billy_Bob]

Wow...

Chris Wallace and Amy Klobichar should get a damn room... Its a love fest... And Wallace is allowing her to lie her ass off...