Holy Spankings! Democrats open 14% lead in ABC/WaPo midterms poll

[Ted Frazier]

What a bloodbath.

Registered voters say they favor the Democratic candidate over the Republican candidate in their district by 52 percent to 38 percent. That is a marked increase from the four-point edge in an April Post-ABC poll but similar to the 12-point advantage Democrats enjoyed in January.

Poll: Democrats regain clear advantage in midterms shaping up as referendum on President Trump

/——/ Read the demographics libtard. A poll of 675 random adults oversampling democrats. Man you stink of desperation. Bwhahahaha Bwhahahaha

Because A guy from a message board knows just what the right sample should be.

 

[Mike473]

I expect the lead to go to about 15-20% until 2 weeks out. Then, magically, it will tighten to 2-3 points and the Republicans will hold the House. They juice the polls until the last minute. They need the last one to be accurate for future business.

Ahh yes, the grand ol' THEY, grandly conspiring as always.

https://www.dailywire.com/news/8115/mcclatchymarist-poll-clinton-15-hank-berrien

Another day, another disastrous poll for Donald Trump. A new McClatchy/Marist poll conducted on Monday, August 1, found Clinton with a staggering 15-point lead, 48% to 33%.

https://www.cnn.com/2016/10/19/politics/new-hampshire-poll-donald-trump-hillary-clinton/index.html

Washington (CNN)Hillary Clinton holds a double digit lead -- 15 points -- on Donald Trump in New Hampshire, according to a new poll released Wednesday.

http://time.com/4546942/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-lead-poll/

Hillary Clinton has widened her lead over Donald Trump, polling 14 percentage points ahead nationally, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll, which comes 12 days before the presidential election.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/10/27/upshot/pennsylvania-poll.html

Hillary Clinton leads him by seven percentage points, 46 percent to 39 percent, in a four-way race. And in a contest that could decide control of the Senate, the Republican senator Pat Toomey trails the Democratic challenger Katie McGinty by three points.

https://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/16/clinton-holds-11-point-national-lead-over-trump-nbcwsj-poll.html

Hillary Clinton is ahead of Donald Trump by double digits with just over three weeks until Election Day, according to a new national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll conducted entirely after the second presidential debate.

https://www.haaretz.com/world-news/clinton-leads-trump-by-15-points-among-early-voters-1.5454487

With 11 days to go before the U.S. presidential election, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton leads Republican Donald Trump by 15 percentage points among early voters surveyed in the past two weeks, according to the Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-clintons-big-lead-means-a-steadier-forecast/

A friend asked me the other day whether there’s anything preventing Hillary Clinton from rising further in our forecast, beyond what have generally been very good polls for her. Clinton’s chances are up a bit — she’s hit 88 percent in our polls-only forecast, up slightly from 86 percent on Friday and 83 percent a week ago. In the polls-plus forecast, Clinton’s chances are 85 percent, up from 80 percent a week earlier

https://bearingdrift.com/2016/10/16/wason-poll-clinton-15-points-virginia/

Democrat Hillary Clinton now holds a 15-point advantage over Republican Donald Trump in Virginia, according to a tracking survey released Sunday by the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University. Clinton leads Trump among likely voters in Virginia, 44-29 percent.

“It’s crystal clear why the Trump campaign pulled staff out of Virginia this week,” said Dr. Quentin Kidd, Director of the Wason Center.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/10/25/upshot/north-carolina-poll.html

A New York Times Upshot/Siena College survey released on Tuesday confirms that Mr. Trump’s standing has deteriorated considerably. Hillary Clinton has a seven-point lead over Mr. Trump in North Carolina, 46 percent to 39 percent, among likely voters in a three-way race including the Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson.

http://www.kut.org/post/poll-hillary-clinton-leads-donald-trump-texas

Texas may be a battleground state this election, according to a new poll of all 50 states by the Washington Post, which shows Hillary Clinton with a narrow edge over Donald Trump in Texas 46 to 45 percent among registered voters.

https://www.cnn.com/2016/08/10/politics/clinton-leads-trump-wisconsin-poll/

Clinton leads Trump by 15 percentage points, 52% to 37%, among likely voters -- with 10% supporting neither candidate. That's a huge jump from the same poll's findings in July, when it had Clinton at 45% to Trump's 41%.

https://www.mlive.com/news/index.ssf/2016/11/msu_state_of_the_state_survey.html

EAST LANSING, MI -- A survey from Michigan State University's Institute for Public Policy and Social Research suggests Democrat Hillary Clinton has a wide lead over Republican Donald Trump among Michigan's likely voters.

The quarterly State of the State Survey conducted by the institute tracked voters from Sept. 1 to Oct. 30 and found that among likely voters in Michigan, 52 percent said they would vote for Clinton and 32 percent said they would vote for Trump.

https://www.cnn.com/2016/10/19/politics/arizona-poll-hillary-clinton-leads-donald-trump-by-five/index.html

(CNN)A new poll shows Democrat Hillary Clinton with a lead in the traditional Republican stronghold of Arizona, yet another sign of Donald Trump's shrinking path to the nomination.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

...Because as we all know there is exactly same number of Republicans and Democrats in this country at any given time, so therefore polling sample must have equal number of Democrats and Republicans for it to be considered good.

Right? No silly, that is WRONG.

Democratic Edge in Party Affiliation Up to Seven Points

Hey there doofus. When they are making a statement about the swing, you must use the same criteria. In this case they didn’t. They screwed it heavier with democratic respondents than the previous polls. Maybe even you can understand that. I doubt it though.

Fucking liar - I actually took a look at their party affiliation question history and it’s the same numbers as from last survey.

And how is criteria different?

They called up a random sample of adults...or do you think they specifically CHOSE to call more democrats?

You talk out of your ass

Like I said repeatedly in this thread, the national poll is useless to tell us what the balance of power will be in Congress after the election, which is what really matters.

You are wrong. The polls presaged the Democrat takeover in 2006 and the Republican takeover in 2010. Especially when it is in double digits.

that's when there were rational people being polled. Unfortunately for you, the midterms have been impacted by the nuts for life demolosers and the conservatives will be out.

Most conservatives in this country are crazy. Sad to say you have a right wing bunch of crazies and a left wing bunch of crazies. Those of us in the middle wish we could get rid of both extremes.

If you have watched any of the Kavanaugh confirmation hearings.....you know that is a lie....the insane, nut jobs are the left wing democrats.........do you still wear your Handmaid habit at home?

The Cavanaugh hearings show the corruption of the Republican Party. They have abused their majority. You take your shit and shove it up your ass.

The Cavanaugh hearings show the corruption of the Republican Party.

How?

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

in one state and this popular vote is in every state. which she lost. so thanks for the history lesson son.

Maybe you need it. You people keep talking about how the polls got it wrong in 2016. They got the popular vote right and the popular vote is what matters.

They got the popular vote right and the popular vote is what matters.

If they vote in 5 districts and the Dem wins in one by 100,000 votes and the Republicans win the other 4 by 1,000 votes each, is the headline, "Dems win by 96,000 votes"? or "Republicans win 4 out of 5 seats"?

The last Washington Post poll had Clinton up by 3 in the last poll. She won the popular vote by 2.

The last Washington Post poll had Clinton up by 3 in the last poll.

How many electoral votes did their polls show her winning?

They did not have a forecast for electoral votes.

You didn't see any polls that projected electoral votes? Were you in an institution?

 

[dave p]

What a bloodbath.

Registered voters say they favor the Democratic candidate over the Republican candidate in their district by 52 percent to 38 percent. That is a marked increase from the four-point edge in an April Post-ABC poll but similar to the 12-point advantage Democrats enjoyed in January.

Poll: Democrats regain clear advantage in midterms shaping up as referendum on President Trump

/——/ Read the demographics libtard. A poll of 675 random adults oversampling democrats. Man you stink of desperation. Bwhahahaha Bwhahahaha

Because A guy from a message board knows just what the right sample should be.

You seem to think you are.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

in one state and this popular vote is in every state. which she lost. so thanks for the history lesson son.

Maybe you need it. You people keep talking about how the polls got it wrong in 2016. They got the popular vote right and the popular vote is what matters.

They got the popular vote right and the popular vote is what matters.

If they vote in 5 districts and the Dem wins in one by 100,000 votes and the Republicans win the other 4 by 1,000 votes each, is the headline, "Dems win by 96,000 votes"? or "Republicans win 4 out of 5 seats"?

The last Washington Post poll had Clinton up by 3 in the last poll. She won the popular vote by 2.

The last Washington Post poll had Clinton up by 3 in the last poll.

How many electoral votes did their polls show her winning?

They did not have a forecast for electoral votes.

This is so weird, the LA Times had a prediction of electoral votes.

The race to 270

 

[Cellblock2429]

What a bloodbath.

Registered voters say they favor the Democratic candidate over the Republican candidate in their district by 52 percent to 38 percent. That is a marked increase from the four-point edge in an April Post-ABC poll but similar to the 12-point advantage Democrats enjoyed in January.

Poll: Democrats regain clear advantage in midterms shaping up as referendum on President Trump

/——/ Read the demographics libtard. A poll of 675 random adults oversampling democrats. Man you stink of desperation. Bwhahahaha Bwhahahaha

Because A guy from a message board knows just what the right sample should be.

/——/ This guy from the internet has studied surveys for decades and knows the difference between a poll of 675 random adults and 1,500 likely voters. One is cheap fast poll that counts illegals, those who never vote, those who can’t vote, registered voters and is often used to create a news story. The other is most accurate, expensive and time consuming that’s used by professionals to gauge the sentiment of those who show up to vote. Can you tell which is which?

 

[RetiredGySgt]

They're the same ones that predicted that Hillary would blow out Trump. What else you got?

Midterms are decided by popular vote. Every poll save 1 had Clinton winning the popular vote which she did.

in one state and this popular vote is in every state. which she lost. so thanks for the history lesson son.

Maybe you need it. You people keep talking about how the polls got it wrong in 2016. They got the popular vote right and the popular vote is what matters.

Hillary won the popular vote because of California, hate to break it to you but there are 50 States and a district tat elect representative. Hillary lost in what 32 States? The popular vote ONLY matters in individual States for senators and Individual Districts for representatives. California can not elect any one OUT side California.

 

[RetiredGySgt]

They're the same ones that predicted that Hillary would blow out Trump. What else you got?

Midterms are decided by popular vote. Every poll save 1 had Clinton winning the popular vote which she did.

in one state and this popular vote is in every state. which she lost. so thanks for the history lesson son.

Maybe you need it. You people keep talking about how the polls got it wrong in 2016. They got the popular vote right and the popular vote is what matters.

They got the popular vote right and the popular vote is what matters.

If they vote in 5 districts and the Dem wins in one by 100,000 votes and the Republicans win the other 4 by 1,000 votes each, is the headline, "Dems win by 96,000 votes"? or "Republicans win 4 out of 5 seats"?

The last Washington Post poll had Clinton up by 3 in the last poll. She won the popular vote by 2.

Popular vote does NOT elected Presidents never has.

 

[RetiredGySgt]

Fucking liar - I actually took a look at their party affiliation question history and it’s the same numbers as from last survey.

And how is criteria different?

They called up a random sample of adults...or do you think they specifically CHOSE to call more democrats?

You talk out of your ass

that's when there were rational people being polled. Unfortunately for you, the midterms have been impacted by the nuts for life demolosers and the conservatives will be out.

Most conservatives in this country are crazy. Sad to say you have a right wing bunch of crazies and a left wing bunch of crazies. Those of us in the middle wish we could get rid of both extremes.

If you have watched any of the Kavanaugh confirmation hearings.....you know that is a lie....the insane, nut jobs are the left wing democrats.........do you still wear your Handmaid habit at home?

The Cavanaugh hearings show the corruption of the Republican Party. They have abused their majority. You take your shit and shove it up your ass.

there should never have been the hearing, they should have voted. you can go blow your bubbles some more.

Fucking liar - I actually took a look at their party affiliation question history and it’s the same numbers as from last survey.

And how is criteria different?

They called up a random sample of adults...or do you think they specifically CHOSE to call more democrats?

You talk out of your ass

that's when there were rational people being polled. Unfortunately for you, the midterms have been impacted by the nuts for life demolosers and the conservatives will be out.

Most conservatives in this country are crazy. Sad to say you have a right wing bunch of crazies and a left wing bunch of crazies. Those of us in the middle wish we could get rid of both extremes.

you aren't in any middle.

I am in between the garbage on the right like you and the left.

you are nothing near the middle of anything. I'm middle and lean right. I can't go where extremists go. sorry, I follow logic.

Then why do you support Trump and Republicans. You don't have a clue where the middle is.

And you supported Clinton she is left by far and not anywhere near the Center.

 

[RetiredGySgt]

I expect the lead to go to about 15-20% until 2 weeks out. Then, magically, it will tighten to 2-3 points and the Republicans will hold the House. They juice the polls until the last minute. They need the last one to be accurate for future business.

15 to 20% of what? there are a hundred seats up, how many seats are whose?

There are actually 435 seats in the House and only 33 or 34 in the senate up for election.

 

[Deno]

What a bloodbath.

Registered voters say they favor the Democratic candidate over the Republican candidate in their district by 52 percent to 38 percent. That is a marked increase from the four-point edge in an April Post-ABC poll but similar to the 12-point advantage Democrats enjoyed in January.

Poll: Democrats regain clear advantage in midterms shaping up as referendum on President Trump

We will see dip shit....

Your libtard polls said Trump had a 5% chance to win....

Who's your president now?

 

[Cellblock2429]

They're the same ones that predicted that Hillary would blow out Trump. What else you got?

Midterms are decided by popular vote. Every poll save 1 had Clinton winning the popular vote which she did.

in one state and this popular vote is in every state. which she lost. so thanks for the history lesson son.

Maybe you need it. You people keep talking about how the polls got it wrong in 2016. They got the popular vote right and the popular vote is what matters.

Hillary won the popular vote because of California, hate to break it to you but there are 50 States and a district tat elect representative. Hillary lost in what 32 States? The popular vote ONLY matters in individual States for senators and Individual Districts for representatives. California can not elect any one OUT side California.

/——/ As has been explained to libtards in the simplest terms ad naseam. But I guarantee that within 24 hours another lib will post “But Hillary won the popular vote.”

 

[ColonelAngus]

What a bloodbath.

Registered voters say they favor the Democratic candidate over the Republican candidate in their district by 52 percent to 38 percent. That is a marked increase from the four-point edge in an April Post-ABC poll but similar to the 12-point advantage Democrats enjoyed in January.

Poll: Democrats regain clear advantage in midterms shaping up as referendum on President Trump

We will see dip shit....

Your libtard polls said Trump had a 5% chance to win....

Who's your president now?

The stupid fucking spin is that the polls were right because she won a fictitious race of combining all the local elections.

She lost and it’s the same reason a national poll means NOTHING for the mid terms.

Idiots seem to never learn.

 

[ColonelAngus]

For you morons playing checkers instead of chess.

5 States That Will Decide the House Majority

 

[jc456]

I expect the lead to go to about 15-20% until 2 weeks out. Then, magically, it will tighten to 2-3 points and the Republicans will hold the House. They juice the polls until the last minute. They need the last one to be accurate for future business.

15 to 20% of what? there are a hundred seats up, how many seats are whose?

There are actually 435 seats in the House and only 33 or 34 in the senate up for election.

I want to learn how a poll can predict so many seats in different states and counties and give a percentage! That’s all. I used 100 as a sample size round number. Looking for that algorithm

 

[jc456]

What a bloodbath.

Registered voters say they favor the Democratic candidate over the Republican candidate in their district by 52 percent to 38 percent. That is a marked increase from the four-point edge in an April Post-ABC poll but similar to the 12-point advantage Democrats enjoyed in January.

Poll: Democrats regain clear advantage in midterms shaping up as referendum on President Trump

We will see dip shit....

Your libtard polls said Trump had a 5% chance to win....

Who's your president now?

The stupid fucking spin is that the polls were right because she won a fictitious race of combining all the local elections.

She lost and it’s the same reason a national poll means NOTHING for the mid terms.

Idiots seem to never learn.

That’s what I’m saying. How does national translate into local exactly?

 

[ColonelAngus]

What a bloodbath.

Registered voters say they favor the Democratic candidate over the Republican candidate in their district by 52 percent to 38 percent. That is a marked increase from the four-point edge in an April Post-ABC poll but similar to the 12-point advantage Democrats enjoyed in January.

Poll: Democrats regain clear advantage in midterms shaping up as referendum on President Trump

We will see dip shit....

Your libtard polls said Trump had a 5% chance to win....

Who's your president now?

The stupid fucking spin is that the polls were right because she won a fictitious race of combining all the local elections.

She lost and it’s the same reason a national poll means NOTHING for the mid terms.

Idiots seem to never learn.

That’s what I’m saying. How does national translate into local exactly?

It doesn't...they are fucking idiots.

 

[Fang]

What a bloodbath.

Registered voters say they favor the Democratic candidate over the Republican candidate in their district by 52 percent to 38 percent. That is a marked increase from the four-point edge in an April Post-ABC poll but similar to the 12-point advantage Democrats enjoyed in January.

Poll: Democrats regain clear advantage in midterms shaping up as referendum on President Trump

1

"Referendum on Trump". LOL I guess 2010 and 2014 was a referendum on Obama.

 

[ColonelAngus]

As the article says, it's likely to come down to 5 states and a handful of LOCAL ELECTIONS.

NATIONAL POLLS DON'T MEAN SHIT.

Say it with me!