How many seats will the Rep/Tea Party pick up in the House?

[Tech_Esq]

54 is a good number to put the over under at. I'd say if the Repubs really get their act together and the economy stays about where it is, it'll probably be more. The unemployment rate won't change significantly be November at this point. If it goes over 10, the Dems are dead. It won't make any real difference in their favor unless it goes under 9%, almost no chance of that.

On the other hand, if the Repubs go in with disorganized local races, it's probably a pick up in the 30s. The ground game is VERY strong on the repub side. The reports were this morning that Dem fund raising is down 65%. Apparently, Wall Street doesn't really like being bashed and regulated as much as the Dems thought they did. So, there are two aspects to the coming Dem defeat, the positive conservative/tea party ground game (which answers the question, if you dump the Social Cons., where do you get your ground soldiers from?); and the negative "We hate Dems and want them to die" from their former supporters. The last is the real wild card. How disaffected will the Dems be in November? Will they stay away in droves? If they do, that could overcome how ineffective Repub organization might be.

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

I'm setting the over/under at 54.

Some are saying it could be as high as 90, or as low as 25.

What's your thought? Over? Under? Should we start a board pool?

And what about the Senate? Will the Dems lose the 10 seats needed to give control to the Reps/Tea Party? I think they will. Over/Under there is 10 on the button!

People who make bets on races before the fall are usually as unsophisticated as they come. It is only after the summer that most races start to truly shape up.

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

There's really no need to add the Tea Party to the ticket ... it's been obvious from the jump that they are Republicans.

Dems keep the Senate and the House is a coinflip, IMO.

You're right. It really isn't as much about the Republicans gaining control, as it is the Democrats being removed from power.

And I agree with your predictions, but I'm not going to be surprised if the Dems lose the Senate also. They have grossly underestimated how badly they have pissed of the voters.

pissed off? more like pissing all over yourselves.

when I listen to Tea Party types (I'm usually being held hostage) I get the mental image of people who cut off their noses to spite their faces.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

If the RNC fires Steele, begs Palin to step in and she accepts, Tea Party Republicans easily pick up 100 House seats and the only safe Dem Senate seats are in NY.

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

If the RNC fires Steele, begs Palin to step in and she accepts, Tea Party Republicans easily pick up 100 House seats and the only safe Dem Senate seats are in NY.

Can always rely on Frank for comedic relief.

 

[Nonelitist]

I'm setting the over/under at 54.

Some are saying it could be as high as 90, or as low as 25.

What's your thought? Over? Under? Should we start a board pool?

And what about the Senate? Will the Dems lose the 10 seats needed to give control to the Reps/Tea Party? I think they will. Over/Under there is 10 on the button!

90+ House
12 Senate

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Vote Dem: They have 0% unemployment for people who are employed!

 

[topspin]

Gimmy some gridlock. Hopefully they win the house and not the senate. No way they don't gain either.

 

[Polk]

+/- 35. The fundamentals would lead me to say a higher number, but the Republicans haven't shown particular skill in winning races they should have.

 

[topspin]

+/- 35. The fundamentals would lead me to say a higher number, but the Republicans haven't shown particular skill in winning races they should have.

Republicans will get it in gear. For an out of power party with this shitty sputtering economy it's going to be too easy to blame Obama.

 

[JimH52]

I think the party that will suffer the most damage from the Teabaggers is the Republican Party. Going to be an interesting election.

Agreed. It may not become so obvious, even in November, but the Tea Party dogmatic views of every frigin thing, will wear on the voters. They will insist on a larger voice in the GOP and the Republicans cannot say no. Frank's hero, the quitter, will eventually take the Baggers down.

 

[Polk]

+/- 35. The fundamentals would lead me to say a higher number, but the Republicans haven't shown particular skill in winning races they should have.

Republicans will get it in gear. For an out of power party with this shitty sputtering economy it's going to be too easy to blame Obama.

Perhaps, but I was pretty shocked when they didn't do it in PA-12.

 

[jillian]

+/- 35. The fundamentals would lead me to say a higher number, but the Republicans haven't shown particular skill in winning races they should have.

Republicans will get it in gear. For an out of power party with this shitty sputtering economy it's going to be too easy to blame Obama.

Perhaps, but I was pretty shocked when they didn't do it in PA-12.

or NY-21.

and now it looks as though Crist is going to beat Rubio pretty solidly for the FL senate seat.

 

[Gunny]

There's really no need to add the Tea Party to the ticket ... it's been obvious from the jump that they are Republicans.

Dems keep the Senate and the House is a coinflip, IMO.

Wrong. They are not Republicans. That's the whole point to its existence. You lefties just vilify from the hip with blinders on.

 

[Dr.House]

Republicans will get it in gear. For an out of power party with this shitty sputtering economy it's going to be too easy to blame Obama.

Perhaps, but I was pretty shocked when they didn't do it in PA-12.

or NY-21.

and now it looks as though Crist is going to beat Rubio pretty solidly for the FL senate seat.

Crist? The Republican turned Independent leading by a whopping 4.8 pts (avg spread from RCP) in July? "Pretty solidly"???

A little early to be counting those chickens, isn't it?

 

[CrusaderFrank]

The only safe Dems Senate seats are in NY. But, who knows, if Palin takes over for Steele even those might be in play

 

[JimH52]

The only safe Dems Senate seats are in NY. But, who knows, if Palin takes over for Steele even those might be in play

and we all hope she does take over so she can prove her incompetence and eventually....QUIT!

 

[editec]

Not a clue.

All I really know is that whehter its the Republicans in charge or the Democrats in charge the USA is going to keep on going in the basically the same direction its been headed for most of my adult lifetime.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Palin will flip more House seats from Dem to Republican than those Ohio Diebold machines flipped votes from Kerry to Bush!

 

[Cuyo]

There's really no need to add the Tea Party to the ticket ... it's been obvious from the jump that they are Republicans.

Dems keep the Senate and the House is a coinflip, IMO.

You're right. It really isn't as much about the Republicans gaining control, as it is the Democrats being removed from power.

And I agree with your predictions, but I'm not going to be surprised if the Dems lose the Senate also. They have grossly underestimated how badly they have pissed of the voters.

Yeah. That's the way to go. Punish the guys who aren't fixing the problems fast enough by re-empowering the guys who caused the problems. Gosh Mini14 you're a smart cookie.



Oh, and in case you couldn't tell, I was being sarcastic.