HRC opens a 12 point lead over Dangerous Donnie

[Redfish]

statistics 101. the so-called polls are designed to influence public opinion, not the report on it. If you doubt that, check into who is paying the pollsters.

Pollsters are in the business of making money. They do that by producing accurate polls.

wrong, they make money producing polls that please the people paying them, are you really so naïve that you think the pollsters don't have a political agenda?

Pollsters have business outside of political polling. They aren't staking their reputations on producing garbage polls.

as I said, you are free to believe the bullshit if you choose. but follow the money if you want the truth.

Instead of innuendo, why not just demonstrate your point?

Do the parties have polling organizations? yes or no

Do the networks and other media have a political bias? yes or no.

its not complicated, sorry to burst your bubble.

 

[A Perez]

One more week of this bad ratings and I would not be surprised that the GOP convention will be opened.

Clinton Opens 12-Point Lead; Two-Thirds Say Trump's Biased

The largest lead Obama ever had over Romney in an ABC/WaPo poll was 7% 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama | RealClearPolitics

 

[Redfish]

WSJ/NBC Poll: Trump, Clinton Essentially Tied


Presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is holding his own against former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News Poll despite a very rocky two weeks.

She leads him by 5 percentage points but they are essentially tied when third-party candidates are included, the survey reported. The poll of 1,000 registered voters showed Clinton leading 46 percent to 41 percent in a head-to-head matchup.

Breaking News at Newsmax.com WSJ/NBC Poll: Trump, Clinton Essentially Tied
Urgent: Rate Obama on His Job Performance. Vote Here Now!

WSJ/NBC Poll: Trump, Clinton Essentially Tied

They are within the margin of error, taking this poll with every poll since the 19th of May shows Clinton leading. Could change, safe to say at this moment Clinton is the clear front runner.

do you understand that the margin of error is a calculation done by the pollsters?

the real margin of error in such a tiny sample is more like 50%.

 

[AceRothstein]

Every time Trump opens his mouth, his numbers go down. This isn't the Republican primary any more where being an asshole gets you more votes.

 

[jon_berzerk]

WSJ/NBC Poll: Trump, Clinton Essentially Tied


Presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is holding his own against former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News Poll despite a very rocky two weeks.

She leads him by 5 percentage points but they are essentially tied when third-party candidates are included, the survey reported. The poll of 1,000 registered voters showed Clinton leading 46 percent to 41 percent in a head-to-head matchup.

Breaking News at Newsmax.com WSJ/NBC Poll: Trump, Clinton Essentially Tied
Urgent: Rate Obama on His Job Performance. Vote Here Now!

WSJ/NBC Poll: Trump, Clinton Essentially Tied

again, 1000 people out of 330,000,000. its statistically meaningless.

of course my point is you can get any result you want

 

[HappyJoy]

Pollsters are in the business of making money. They do that by producing accurate polls.

wrong, they make money producing polls that please the people paying them, are you really so naïve that you think the pollsters don't have a political agenda?

Pollsters have business outside of political polling. They aren't staking their reputations on producing garbage polls.

as I said, you are free to believe the bullshit if you choose. but follow the money if you want the truth.

Instead of innuendo, why not just demonstrate your point?

Do the parties have polling organizations? yes or no

Do the networks and other media have a political bias? yes or no.

its not complicated, sorry to burst your bubble.

Yes, they do . Some are reputable, others aren't and those campaigns will use those results to show they are either ahead or catching up or whatever it is they want to do. Again, those pollsters can be checked for past performance.

Guess what pollsters also use polling for. That's right, they want to know how their candidate is doing, are they ahead or behind? What are different demographics thinking and who supports your candidate and who doesn't? What is the general view of this or that issue? Then they act upon those results and lying to themselves isn't helpful. As you should know.

 

[SuperDemocrat]

wrong, they make money producing polls that please the people paying them, are you really so naïve that you think the pollsters don't have a political agenda?

Pollsters have business outside of political polling. They aren't staking their reputations on producing garbage polls.

as I said, you are free to believe the bullshit if you choose. but follow the money if you want the truth.

Instead of innuendo, why not just demonstrate your point?

Do the parties have polling organizations? yes or no

Do the networks and other media have a political bias? yes or no.

its not complicated, sorry to burst your bubble.

Yes, they do . Some are reputable, others aren't and those campaigns will use those results to show they are either ahead or catching up or whatever it is they want to do. Again, those pollsters can be checked for past performance.

Guess what pollsters also use polling for. That's right, they want to know how their candidate is doing, are they ahead or behind? What are different demographics thinking and who supports your candidate and who doesn't? What is the general view of this or that issue? Then they act upon those results and lying to themselves isn't helpful. As you should know.

That is why they have internal 'secret' polling. The one they release doesn't have to be completely honest but the one they use internally does. It would be interesting to see what their internal polling shows...if they dare release it?

 

[chikenwing]

Hmmm....


Underlying Views
Trial heats are hypothetical; they ask which candidate people would support if the election were today – which it isn’t. At least as important are the underlying sentiments informing current preferences, and they show the extent of Trump’s troubles given his recent controversial comments. Among them:

• The public by 66-29 percent think he’s unfairly biased against groups such as women, minorities or Muslims.

• Americans by 68-28 percent think his comment about Judge Gonzalo Curiel was racist. Regardless of whether or not it was racist, 85 percent say it was inappropriate.

• While most Americans disapprove of Clinton’s handling of her email while secretary of state (34-56 percent, approve-disapprove), they’re equally disenchanted with Trump’s handling of questions about Trump University (19-59 percent, with more undecided).

• Most generally, the public by 56-36 percent, a 20-point margin, says Trump is standing against their beliefs as opposed to standing up for their beliefs.

Don't vote for him .
There problem

 

[JakeStarkey]

Polls normally tell us what the electorate is feeling as a group right now.

Based on all of the polling, Trump very likely would not win right now.

Trump needs to be more pro-active. Getting rid of Lewandosky means that the Dangerous Donald is going to try to sculpt himself into a candidate as visioned by his daughter and her husband.

We will see.

 

[HappyJoy]

Pollsters have business outside of political polling. They aren't staking their reputations on producing garbage polls.

as I said, you are free to believe the bullshit if you choose. but follow the money if you want the truth.

Instead of innuendo, why not just demonstrate your point?

Do the parties have polling organizations? yes or no

Do the networks and other media have a political bias? yes or no.

its not complicated, sorry to burst your bubble.

Yes, they do . Some are reputable, others aren't and those campaigns will use those results to show they are either ahead or catching up or whatever it is they want to do. Again, those pollsters can be checked for past performance.

Guess what pollsters also use polling for. That's right, they want to know how their candidate is doing, are they ahead or behind? What are different demographics thinking and who supports your candidate and who doesn't? What is the general view of this or that issue? Then they act upon those results and lying to themselves isn't helpful. As you should know.

That is why they have internal 'secret' polling. The one they release doesn't have to be completely honest but the one they use internally does. It would be interesting to see what their internal polling shows...if they dare release it?

True, not all polls are public.

But you can view the cross tabs of most polls, you can see who they polled, and how those demographics adds up. And, again, you can look at their past performance.

Also, and I don't think I mentioned it yet. Never look at only a single poll's results. It's best to look at poll aggregators like RCP and Huffington Post to get a bigger picture.

 

[HappyJoy]

Polls normally tell us what the electorate is feeling as a group right now.

Based on all of the polling, Trump very likely would not win right now.

Trump needs to be more pro-active. Getting rid of Lewandosky means that the Dangerous Donald is going to try to sculpt himself into a candidate as visioned by his daughter and her husband.

We will see.

And strong man side kick Paul Manafort.

 

[chikenwing]

It's a neck and neck race,nether candidate has much of a leg up on the other
One poll has Clinton by 14 factor in error,to close to call,another a basic tie

Time will tell,both have some real challenges.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Every time Redfish refuses to go with the numbers, and the sources, and the analysis, we are simply reminded he is trying to bail out a sinking ship with a leaky bucket.

Anyone who believes it is a neck and neck race does not understand this race.

 

[jon_berzerk]

sure

recently i was polled about thune

my answering showed i was less then happy

with his performance

however i would still vote for him over some

leftist running against him

if for no other reason then to retain the leadership on the hill

 

[HappyJoy]

Hmmm....


Underlying Views
Trial heats are hypothetical; they ask which candidate people would support if the election were today – which it isn’t. At least as important are the underlying sentiments informing current preferences, and they show the extent of Trump’s troubles given his recent controversial comments. Among them:

• The public by 66-29 percent think he’s unfairly biased against groups such as women, minorities or Muslims.

• Americans by 68-28 percent think his comment about Judge Gonzalo Curiel was racist. Regardless of whether or not it was racist, 85 percent say it was inappropriate.

• While most Americans disapprove of Clinton’s handling of her email while secretary of state (34-56 percent, approve-disapprove), they’re equally disenchanted with Trump’s handling of questions about Trump University (19-59 percent, with more undecided).

• Most generally, the public by 56-36 percent, a 20-point margin, says Trump is standing against their beliefs as opposed to standing up for their beliefs.

Don't vote for him .
There problem

Where problem, Tarzan?

Sorry, couldn't resist.

 

[HappyJoy]

It's a neck and neck race,nether candidate has much of a leg up on the other
One poll has Clinton by 14 factor in error,to close to call,another a basic tie

Time will tell,both have some real challenges.

Eh, the NBC poll isn't a tie, they are just within the margin of error, nod goes to Clinton because she is 5 points up. She's up in every poll, not a tie.

 

[chikenwing]

It's a neck and neck race,nether candidate has much of a leg up on the other
One poll has Clinton by 14 factor in error,to close to call,another a basic tie

Time will tell,both have some real challenges.

Eh, the NBC poll isn't a tie, they are just within the margin of error, nod goes to Clinton because she is 5 points up. She's up in every poll, not a tie.

Statically a tie,she could in reality be a few points behind.
When the numbers are in the margins of error,its a tie.i ts one thing about math its black and white,well for most people.

 

[HappyJoy]

It's a neck and neck race,nether candidate has much of a leg up on the other
One poll has Clinton by 14 factor in error,to close to call,another a basic tie

Time will tell,both have some real challenges.

Eh, the NBC poll isn't a tie, they are just within the margin of error, nod goes to Clinton because she is 5 points up. She's up in every poll, not a tie.

Statically a tie,she could in reality be a few points behind.
When the numbers are in the margins of error,its a tie.i ts one thing about math its black and white,well for most people.

She could, but she is also leading in the poll by 5 points. So, most people would call that a lead and odds are taken in with every other poll she is in the lead.

This is why you don't look at a single poll and look for best case scenarios, you just end up fooling yourself.

 

[Old Rocks]

It's a neck and neck race,nether candidate has much of a leg up on the other
One poll has Clinton by 14 factor in error,to close to call,another a basic tie

Time will tell,both have some real challenges.

Eh, the NBC poll isn't a tie, they are just within the margin of error, nod goes to Clinton because she is 5 points up. She's up in every poll, not a tie.

Statically a tie,she could in reality be a few points behind.
When the numbers are in the margins of error,its a tie.i ts one thing about math its black and white,well for most people.

LOL. Clinton leads in 16 of the last 16 polls.

 

[Wry Catcher]

One more week of this bad ratings and I would not be surprised that the GOP convention will be opened.

Clinton Opens 12-Point Lead; Two-Thirds Say Trump's Biased

There are always 24 -32 % of the voters too stupid to vote. Look how many gave GWB a second term. Many are single issue voters, and vote on wedge issues: guns, god, gays, abortion and taxes; than there are those who vote only because the candidate is a Conservative or a Republican.

[the echo chamber is now free to claim this ^^^ describes all liberals, progressives and Democrats, proving once again the crazy right wing has no imagination or ability to think outside of the box]