If Ebola is so contagious why

[PredFan]

TEN patients at Dallas Ebola apartment are classified as high risk Daily Mail Online

This makes sense. The family was whisked away. Obama keeping a lid on things until after the election

the family was taken away so the pitchfork society wouldn't be hysterical and standing in front of their door.

but yes, let's pretend it's all about the black guy in the white house, frank.

Do you understand anything at all about Ebola? People aren't flocking to their apartment

Ebola Scare Turns Dallas Hospital Into a Ghost Town - ABC News

With all love and admiration my friend, are you trying to say that mass hysteria is evidence?

Trying to say that people tend to run FROM a level IV Slate Cleaner. Moreover, Obama is either a total incompetent or a bioterrorist.

What would his response have been if a TeaParty guy had a vial of Ebola in Dallas? Hmm? Same? Hmmm?

People will also run from ghosts, the Loch Ness Monster, and Bug Foot.

 

[Kondor3]

Every year the flu kills between 3,000 and as many as 49,000 Americans

Then again, what's the overall or average Mortality Rate for various strains of Influenza in the United States in the last 20 or 30 or 40 or 50 years?

1%? 2%? 3%?

What's the overall or average Mortality Rate for Ebola?

50%? 60%? 70%?

I don't believe that any Thinking Person will dispute that - at present - Influenza is by far the bigger killer - but that's only a Volume issue, and not a Lethality issue. Ultimately,

Lethality is a larger issue - should the bug get loose - than many would have John Q. Public believe.

But, spread Ebola to the same No. of folks as are infected with Influenza each year - as a statistiscal baseline - and we will all be signing a different tune, and will be bumping Ebola just a wee bit higher on the priority list - and wishing to God that we'd done more common-sense preventative work early-on while there was still time.

 

[Kondor3]

Would you ride in a car/plane/bus with someone who has ebola?
Would you invite them into your house?

And, given the geometric progression by which such a virus can spread, even through a lower-order physical-contact transmission vector...

How many of us can say with certainty that we have not already done so?

Just ask that school district in Ohio...

Or those thousands of passengers on that Carnival cruise liner...

If each potential carrier comes into contact with even as few as two (2) others per day...

Many of you already know how quickly simple binary math (counting) gets out of hand in such calculations....

1 x 2 = 2 | x 2 = 4 | x 2 = 8 | x 2 = 16 | x 2 = 32 | x 2 = 64 | x 2 = 128 | x 2 = 256 | x 2 = 512 | x 2 = 1024 | x 2 = 2048 | x 2 = 4096 | x 2 = 8192 | x 2 = 16348 | x 2 = 32768 | x 2 = 65536 | x 2 = 131072 | etc... etc... etc... and that's only two additional contacts per potential carrier... and only for a single day.

The risk-factor computations get out of hand pretty damned fast, even in that sort of limited (2 people, 1 day) scenario, but, starting adding more contacts and multiple days to the computations, and the risk numbers start approaching the stratosphere.

That doesn't mean that we have to freak out and do the sky-is-falling thing.

But it does mean that we need to start using our common sense with respect to minimizing the number of incoming potential carriers, and acting on such common-sense concerns.

Common sense yes, hysteria, no.

Agreed.

At-issue, of course, is what constitutes Common Sense, and what constitutes Hysteria, at various stages in this looming crisis.

 

[Ravi]

Doctors with experience dealing with Ebola are not impressed with the CDC:


U.S. standards for protecting healthcare workers from Ebola are weaker than those widely used in West Africa, according to the leader of a group treating victims of the virus in Liberia.

“We’re not comfortable with [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)] procedures,” Ken Isaacs, the vice president of Samaritan's Purse, told The Hill.

When Samaritan's Purse health workers treat patients in Liberia, they wear two pairs of gloves and spray themselves with disinfectant twice before leaving the isolation ward. They have a three-foot “no touch” policy and hold safety meetings every day.

In U.S. hospitals — such as Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital Dallas, which has had three cases of Ebola — workers don't have to hose down their gear and are told it’s OK for gloves to expose their wrists.

“If you slip, and you touch your skin on the wrist, you’re going to get Ebola,” said Isaacs, who has worked on-the-ground disaster relief in countries like Haiti, the Philippines and Bosnia.

“Can we trust CDC? They said they were going to stop it in its tracks, but I don’t know."...

(snip)

Isaacs said he was alarmed by CDC’s response.

“To this day, in Liberia, if someone has a temperature of 99.5, they are not getting on the airplane,” Issacs said.


Aid group leader Africa s Ebola standards higher than CDC s TheHill

CDC saved the lives of two of their medical professionals, or is three, that got sick on the missions watch.

 

[AceRothstein]

Every year the flu kills between 3,000 and as many as 49,000 Americans

Then again, what's the overall or average Mortality Rate for various strains of Influenza in the United States in the last 20 or 30 or 40 or 50 years?

1%? 2%? 3%?

What's the overall or average Mortality Rate for Ebola?

50%? 60%? 70%?

I don't believe that any Thinking Person will dispute that - at present - Influenza is by far the bigger killer - but that's only a Volume issue, and not a Lethality issue. Ultimately,

Lethality is a larger issue - should the bug get loose - than many would have John Q. Public believe.

But, spread Ebola to the same No. of folks as are infected with Influenza each year - as a statistiscal baseline - and we will all be signing a different tune, and will be bumping Ebola just a wee bit higher on the priority list - and wishing to God that we'd done more common-sense preventative work early-on while there was still time.

Since you are using the mortality rate of influenza in the United States only, you should be comparing it to the mortality rate of Ebola in the United States only. So far that is 12.5%. Could be 0% if the one person who died was admitted to the hospital the first time he went.

 

[PredFan]

Doctors with experience dealing with Ebola are not impressed with the CDC:


U.S. standards for protecting healthcare workers from Ebola are weaker than those widely used in West Africa, according to the leader of a group treating victims of the virus in Liberia.

“We’re not comfortable with [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)] procedures,” Ken Isaacs, the vice president of Samaritan's Purse, told The Hill.

When Samaritan's Purse health workers treat patients in Liberia, they wear two pairs of gloves and spray themselves with disinfectant twice before leaving the isolation ward. They have a three-foot “no touch” policy and hold safety meetings every day.

In U.S. hospitals — such as Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital Dallas, which has had three cases of Ebola — workers don't have to hose down their gear and are told it’s OK for gloves to expose their wrists.

“If you slip, and you touch your skin on the wrist, you’re going to get Ebola,” said Isaacs, who has worked on-the-ground disaster relief in countries like Haiti, the Philippines and Bosnia.

“Can we trust CDC? They said they were going to stop it in its tracks, but I don’t know."...

(snip)

Isaacs said he was alarmed by CDC’s response.

“To this day, in Liberia, if someone has a temperature of 99.5, they are not getting on the airplane,” Issacs said.


Aid group leader Africa s Ebola standards higher than CDC s TheHill

CDC saved the lives of two of their medical professionals, or is three, that got sick on the missions watch.

To be sure, the CDC has made some mistakes, but that doesn't negate everything they say.

 

[boedicca]

If the CDC were run with integrity and competence, it would insist that we suspend allowing travelers from Ebola countries into the U.S. until they had proper protocols and resources in place (which they clearly do not given recent events).

I'll note that Obola had no qualms about ceasing flights to Israel..

 

[Dot Com]

As another mentioned- last time an epidemic like this happened, Raygun was Prez & we all know how that turned out- the epidemic exploded.

 

[HenryBHough]

As another mentioned- last time an epidemic like this happened, Raygun was Prez & we all know how that turned out- the epidemic exploded.

And elections were conducted as normal.

How's your confidence level in that happening again?

 

[PredFan]

If the CDC were run with integrity and competence, it would insist that we suspend allowing travelers from Ebola countries into the U.S. until they had proper protocols and resources in place (which they clearly do not given recent events).

I'll note that Obola had no qualms about ceasing flights to Israel..

It is true that they are run by Obama psychophants, but you can trust me to sift through what is bull shit and what isn't. Not everything they have said is untrue.

 

[Kondor3]

Every year the flu kills between 3,000 and as many as 49,000 Americans

Then again, what's the overall or average Mortality Rate for various strains of Influenza in the United States in the last 20 or 30 or 40 or 50 years?

1%? 2%? 3%?

What's the overall or average Mortality Rate for Ebola?

50%? 60%? 70%?

I don't believe that any Thinking Person will dispute that - at present - Influenza is by far the bigger killer - but that's only a Volume issue, and not a Lethality issue. Ultimately,

Lethality is a larger issue - should the bug get loose - than many would have John Q. Public believe.

But, spread Ebola to the same No. of folks as are infected with Influenza each year - as a statistiscal baseline - and we will all be signing a different tune, and will be bumping Ebola just a wee bit higher on the priority list - and wishing to God that we'd done more common-sense preventative work early-on while there was still time.

Since you are using the mortality rate of influenza in the United States only, you should be comparing it to the mortality rate of Ebola in the United States only. So far that is 12.5%. Could be 0% if the one person who died was admitted to the hospital the first time he went.

Absolutely true.

However, that's assuming that the number of carriers remains low.

If the genie gets out of the bottle - if the bug escapes into the wild on any sort of large scale - that 0% or 12.5% will not hold beyond the first few days.

We need to be doing every common-sense thing that we can think of - even if some of them temporarily impact trade or international goodwill - to keep that genie in the bottle - and we need to begin doing such things in a far more timely manner - without falling into Analysis Paralysis or making every decision a goddamned committee meeting series that takes weeks to resolve.

 

[Dot Com]

As another mentioned- last time an epidemic like this happened, Raygun was Prez & we all know how that turned out- the epidemic exploded.

And elections were conducted as normal.

How's your confidence level in that happening again?

PROOF that the eXtreme Rightards, HBH in this instance [surprised?], are only interested in scoring cheap political points

 

[PredFan]

As another mentioned- last time an epidemic like this happened, Raygun was Prez & we all know how that turned out- the epidemic exploded.

If you know ANYTHING about that you will no that Reagan had nothing at all to do with it. It was a combination of a lot if factors, the egos of the doctors and scientists doing the research, the refusal if the gay community to alter their risky behavior, and the politics of the people in charge of the Blood Bank. If you care, and I'm sure you don't, read the book "And the Band Played On". It is the definitive history of the early days of the epidemic.

 

[boedicca]

Doctors with experience dealing with Ebola are not impressed with the CDC:


U.S. standards for protecting healthcare workers from Ebola are weaker than those widely used in West Africa, according to the leader of a group treating victims of the virus in Liberia.

“We’re not comfortable with [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)] procedures,” Ken Isaacs, the vice president of Samaritan's Purse, told The Hill.

When Samaritan's Purse health workers treat patients in Liberia, they wear two pairs of gloves and spray themselves with disinfectant twice before leaving the isolation ward. They have a three-foot “no touch” policy and hold safety meetings every day.

In U.S. hospitals — such as Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital Dallas, which has had three cases of Ebola — workers don't have to hose down their gear and are told it’s OK for gloves to expose their wrists.

“If you slip, and you touch your skin on the wrist, you’re going to get Ebola,” said Isaacs, who has worked on-the-ground disaster relief in countries like Haiti, the Philippines and Bosnia.

“Can we trust CDC? They said they were going to stop it in its tracks, but I don’t know."...

(snip)

Isaacs said he was alarmed by CDC’s response.

“To this day, in Liberia, if someone has a temperature of 99.5, they are not getting on the airplane,” Issacs said.


Aid group leader Africa s Ebola standards higher than CDC s TheHill

CDC saved the lives of two of their medical professionals, or is three, that got sick on the missions watch.

To be sure, the CDC has made some mistakes, but that doesn't negate everything they say.

I don't recall saying that everything they say should be negated.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

TEN patients at Dallas Ebola apartment are classified as high risk Daily Mail Online

This makes sense. The family was whisked away. Obama keeping a lid on things until after the election

the family was taken away so the pitchfork society wouldn't be hysterical and standing in front of their door.

but yes, let's pretend it's all about the black guy in the white house, frank.

Do you understand anything at all about Ebola? People aren't flocking to their apartment

Ebola Scare Turns Dallas Hospital Into a Ghost Town - ABC News

With all love and admiration my friend, are you trying to say that mass hysteria is evidence?

Trying to say that people tend to run FROM a level IV Slate Cleaner. Moreover, Obama is either a total incompetent or a bioterrorist.

What would his response have been if a TeaParty guy had a vial of Ebola in Dallas? Hmm? Same? Hmmm?

People will also run from ghosts, the Loch Ness Monster, and Bug Foot.

None of the above has a 70% death rate

 

[PredFan]

the family was taken away so the pitchfork society wouldn't be hysterical and standing in front of their door.

but yes, let's pretend it's all about the black guy in the white house, frank.

Do you understand anything at all about Ebola? People aren't flocking to their apartment

Ebola Scare Turns Dallas Hospital Into a Ghost Town - ABC News

With all love and admiration my friend, are you trying to say that mass hysteria is evidence?

Trying to say that people tend to run FROM a level IV Slate Cleaner. Moreover, Obama is either a total incompetent or a bioterrorist.

What would his response have been if a TeaParty guy had a vial of Ebola in Dallas? Hmm? Same? Hmmm?

People will also run from ghosts, the Loch Ness Monster, and Bug Foot.

None of the above has a 70% death rate

You are actually helping me make my point. The fact that people panic and are scared doesn't turn fact into fiction.

 

[Kondor3]

...None of the above has a 70% death rate

On October 15th, al Jazeera was reporting that the WHO says different...

WHO finds 70 percent Ebola mortality rate - Africa - Al Jazeera English

I dunno...

 

[PredFan]

...None of the above has a 70% death rate

On October 15th, al Jazeera was reporting that the WHO says different...

WHO finds 70 percent Ebola mortality rate - Africa - Al Jazeera English

I dunno...

He meant that Big Foot doesn't have a 70% death rate.

 

[boedicca]

Do you understand anything at all about Ebola? People aren't flocking to their apartment

Ebola Scare Turns Dallas Hospital Into a Ghost Town - ABC News

With all love and admiration my friend, are you trying to say that mass hysteria is evidence?

Trying to say that people tend to run FROM a level IV Slate Cleaner. Moreover, Obama is either a total incompetent or a bioterrorist.

What would his response have been if a TeaParty guy had a vial of Ebola in Dallas? Hmm? Same? Hmmm?

People will also run from ghosts, the Loch Ness Monster, and Bug Foot.

None of the above has a 70% death rate

You are actually helping me make my point. The fact that people panic and are scared doesn't turn fact into fiction.

Given that countries in Africa which have successfully contained Ebola have closed their borders to Ebola countries, I'll believe their assessment of Ebola more than I will Dr. Transfat's.

 

[Kondor3]

...None of the above has a 70% death rate

On October 15th, al Jazeera was reporting that the WHO says different...

WHO finds 70 percent Ebola mortality rate - Africa - Al Jazeera English

I dunno...

He meant that Big Foot doesn't have a 70% death rate.

Yeah, I spotted that only after I'd hit the 'post' button and I didn't have enough time to compensate... my bad...