Inflation higher than you think.

And the theory that "SUBSTIUTION" needs to be taken into acount when computing CPI is a perfect example of how state economists are moving the goalposts to obfucate the truth.

If steak cost X dollars one week, and it cost $X + Y dollars the next week, claiming that substiuting hamburger for steak means there was NO PRICE RISE is intellectual hooey!

Pretending that fuel prices are somehow not part of the cost of living, or that those rising prices are captured in everything else is another example of the flim-flammery of our reporting agencies.

I don't think it's intellectual hooey at all. The CPI is meant to measure an average basket of goods that a consumer might actually buy. Wen people substituted out of Compact Discs into less-expensive MP3's, or when people substitute out of old and expensive computer memory and into less expensive more modern memory, why shouldn't the CPI reflect that?

While it reflects positive substitutions, it also reflects negative ones as well. If there's a good I wanted but had to take something else I desired less because it was cheaper, I don't consider that to be a valid reflection of stable or lower prices.

If a higher price causes me to be priced out of a product, that's inflation to me.
 
I don't think it's intellectual hooey at all. The CPI is meant to measure an average basket of goods that a consumer might actually buy. Wen people substituted out of Compact Discs into less-expensive MP3's, or when people substitute out of old and expensive computer memory and into less expensive more modern memory, why shouldn't the CPI reflect that?

Is steak the sname thing as hamburger?

No?

Then substitution in that kind of decision is sheer nonsense.

The issue of computer chips is entirely another kind of issue-- one where consumers aren't really substituting, the market is simply changing the product disign.


The CPI sustiution system for computing the CPI is economic bullshit by DESIGN.

I don't understand what the problem is. The CPI is supposed to measure a price index for goods people actually buy. If a relative price change occurs which makes steak more expensive, and people stop buying steak and switch to hamburgers, we should be measuring the price of hamburgers now because that's what people are buying.

The CPI isn't an index of the standard of living. It's an index of the price of goods consumers buy.

If prices are forcing consumers to switch to different products, then it's disingenuous to say it's only being used to measure the price of goods people actually buy, because at that point the reason for consumers switching products is not by choice but by consequence. If what consumers WANTED to buy is now priced too high, and they switch to another product they wanted less, why should we not consider that price inflation as a negative causality of the substitution, and consider the effects of it?

Maybe it doesn't bother you, but it bothers me when I'm priced out of a market or even a specific good. If I can't buy what I usually like to buy anymore, I want that reflected in an inflation index so I can see how my government's monetary policy is affecting me.
 
Is steak the sname thing as hamburger?

No?

Then substitution in that kind of decision is sheer nonsense.

The issue of computer chips is entirely another kind of issue-- one where consumers aren't really substituting, the market is simply changing the product disign.


The CPI sustiution system for computing the CPI is economic bullshit by DESIGN.

I don't understand what the problem is. The CPI is supposed to measure a price index for goods people actually buy. If a relative price change occurs which makes steak more expensive, and people stop buying steak and switch to hamburgers, we should be measuring the price of hamburgers now because that's what people are buying.

The CPI isn't an index of the standard of living. It's an index of the price of goods consumers buy.

If prices are forcing consumers to switch to different products, then it's disingenuous to say it's only being used to measure the price of goods people actually buy, because at that point the reason for consumers switching products is not by choice but by consequence. If what consumers WANTED to buy is now priced too high, and they switch to another product they wanted less, why should we not consider that price inflation as a negative causality of the substitution, and consider the effects of it?

Maybe it doesn't bother you, but it bothers me when I'm priced out of a market or even a specific good. If I can't buy what I usually like to buy anymore, I want that reflected in an inflation index so I can see how my government's monetary policy is affecting me.

But it's not inflation. It's a change in relative prices.

It's a moot point anyway, because the headline CPI doesn't substitute across goods in the basket. This is another of those claims like "it leaves out food, energy and housing" that's just plain untrue. The fact that there isn't substitution across goods is a criticism of the CPI, and I think other indices may do that (I think chained CPI does?).
 
I don't understand what the problem is. The CPI is supposed to measure a price index for goods people actually buy. If a relative price change occurs which makes steak more expensive, and people stop buying steak and switch to hamburgers, we should be measuring the price of hamburgers now because that's what people are buying.

The CPI isn't an index of the standard of living. It's an index of the price of goods consumers buy.

If prices are forcing consumers to switch to different products, then it's disingenuous to say it's only being used to measure the price of goods people actually buy, because at that point the reason for consumers switching products is not by choice but by consequence. If what consumers WANTED to buy is now priced too high, and they switch to another product they wanted less, why should we not consider that price inflation as a negative causality of the substitution, and consider the effects of it?

Maybe it doesn't bother you, but it bothers me when I'm priced out of a market or even a specific good. If I can't buy what I usually like to buy anymore, I want that reflected in an inflation index so I can see how my government's monetary policy is affecting me.

But it's not inflation. It's a change in relative prices.

It's a moot point anyway, because the headline CPI doesn't substitute across goods in the basket. This is another of those claims like "it leaves out food, energy and housing" that's just plain untrue. The fact that there isn't substitution across goods is a criticism of the CPI, and I think other indices may do that (I think chained CPI does?).

I own a painting business. Last year, prices for paint nationwide had 4 price increases, and already one so far this year. The reason being, is that a raw material called titanium dioxide which is used to make most paints, is seeing dramatic price increases. My total paint costs last year went up at least 25%. I was paying $22/gal for my preferred line of interior flat finish paint, and now I'm paying $28. All in only one year. So now on smaller jobs where my profit margin is lower and I can't justify passing too much of the cost burden on to my customers for fear of potentially losing the bid, I go with a less expensive line of paint to cover the difference.

I'm not supposed to see inflation there and be upset about it because I can always buy a cheaper paint?
 
If prices are forcing consumers to switch to different products, then it's disingenuous to say it's only being used to measure the price of goods people actually buy, because at that point the reason for consumers switching products is not by choice but by consequence. If what consumers WANTED to buy is now priced too high, and they switch to another product they wanted less, why should we not consider that price inflation as a negative causality of the substitution, and consider the effects of it?

Maybe it doesn't bother you, but it bothers me when I'm priced out of a market or even a specific good. If I can't buy what I usually like to buy anymore, I want that reflected in an inflation index so I can see how my government's monetary policy is affecting me.

But it's not inflation. It's a change in relative prices.

It's a moot point anyway, because the headline CPI doesn't substitute across goods in the basket. This is another of those claims like "it leaves out food, energy and housing" that's just plain untrue. The fact that there isn't substitution across goods is a criticism of the CPI, and I think other indices may do that (I think chained CPI does?).

I own a painting business. Last year, prices for paint nationwide had 4 price increases, and already one so far this year. The reason being, is that a raw material called titanium dioxide which is used to make most paints, is seeing dramatic price increases. My total paint costs last year went up at least 25%. I was paying $22/gal for my preferred line of interior flat finish paint, and now I'm paying $28. All in only one year. So now on smaller jobs where my profit margin is lower and I can't justify passing too much of the cost burden on to my customers for fear of potentially losing the bid, I go with a less expensive line of paint to cover the difference.

I'm not supposed to see inflation there and be upset about it because I can always buy a cheaper paint?

It's not inflation. Oh my god, it's not inflation. Inflation doesn't mean "the price of something goes up". The definition of inflation is an increase in the general level of prices. If there's a shock to the price of oil, or food, or titanium dioxide, or iron ore, that's not inflation. That's a relative price change.
 
But it's not inflation. It's a change in relative prices.

It's a moot point anyway, because the headline CPI doesn't substitute across goods in the basket. This is another of those claims like "it leaves out food, energy and housing" that's just plain untrue. The fact that there isn't substitution across goods is a criticism of the CPI, and I think other indices may do that (I think chained CPI does?).

I own a painting business. Last year, prices for paint nationwide had 4 price increases, and already one so far this year. The reason being, is that a raw material called titanium dioxide which is used to make most paints, is seeing dramatic price increases. My total paint costs last year went up at least 25%. I was paying $22/gal for my preferred line of interior flat finish paint, and now I'm paying $28. All in only one year. So now on smaller jobs where my profit margin is lower and I can't justify passing too much of the cost burden on to my customers for fear of potentially losing the bid, I go with a less expensive line of paint to cover the difference.

I'm not supposed to see inflation there and be upset about it because I can always buy a cheaper paint?

It's not inflation. Oh my god, it's not inflation. Inflation doesn't mean "the price of something goes up". The definition of inflation is an increase in the general level of prices. If there's a shock to the price of oil, or food, or titanium dioxide, or iron ore, that's not inflation. That's a relative price change.

Bullshit. The rise in raw materials costs shocks the entire trade industry, from painters to builders. The rise in oil prices shocks the entire WORLD because the cost of energy goes up, increasing costs of doing business, which increases costs to consumers.

You live in a fucking fantasy world where book definitions, and statistical letter representations, and little phrases somehow make or break your entire economic viewpoint.

If my entire livelihood is more expensive, from business cost to personal consumption cost, that's inflation. Everything I do, from running my business, to gassing my vehicle, to heating my home, to putting food on my table, is costing myself and everyone else in this country MORE.

I call a spade a spade. You can have your textbooks.
 
I own a painting business. Last year, prices for paint nationwide had 4 price increases, and already one so far this year. The reason being, is that a raw material called titanium dioxide which is used to make most paints, is seeing dramatic price increases. My total paint costs last year went up at least 25%. I was paying $22/gal for my preferred line of interior flat finish paint, and now I'm paying $28. All in only one year. So now on smaller jobs where my profit margin is lower and I can't justify passing too much of the cost burden on to my customers for fear of potentially losing the bid, I go with a less expensive line of paint to cover the difference.

I'm not supposed to see inflation there and be upset about it because I can always buy a cheaper paint?

It's not inflation. Oh my god, it's not inflation. Inflation doesn't mean "the price of something goes up". The definition of inflation is an increase in the general level of prices. If there's a shock to the price of oil, or food, or titanium dioxide, or iron ore, that's not inflation. That's a relative price change.

Bullshit. The rise in raw materials costs shocks the entire trade industry, from painters to builders. The rise in oil prices shocks the entire WORLD because the cost of energy goes up, increasing costs of doing business, which increases costs to consumers.

You live in a fucking fantasy world where book definitions, and statistical letter representations, and little phrases somehow make or break your entire economic viewpoint.

If my entire livelihood is more expensive, from business cost to personal consumption cost, that's inflation. Everything I do, from running my business, to gassing my vehicle, to heating my home, to putting food on my table, is costing myself and everyone else in this country MORE.

I call a spade a spade. You can have your textbooks.

You need to pull your fucking head out of your arse. Drop this humpty dumpty bullshit where a word is whatever you intend it to mean. "Inflation" is an idea with a very specific definition and implication. "To me inflation means that my prices are going up". You don't get to take words and redefine them so that they centre around you and then complain that measurements of that concept don't fit with your personal definition, you fucking narcissist. I will keep my books, thank you. How about you take the time to fucking read one.
 
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I own a painting business. Last year, prices for paint nationwide had 4 price increases, and already one so far this year. The reason being, is that a raw material called titanium dioxide which is used to make most paints, is seeing dramatic price increases. My total paint costs last year went up at least 25%. I was paying $22/gal for my preferred line of interior flat finish paint, and now I'm paying $28. All in only one year. So now on smaller jobs where my profit margin is lower and I can't justify passing too much of the cost burden on to my customers for fear of potentially losing the bid, I go with a less expensive line of paint to cover the difference.

I'm not supposed to see inflation there and be upset about it because I can always buy a cheaper paint?

It's not inflation. Oh my god, it's not inflation. Inflation doesn't mean "the price of something goes up". The definition of inflation is an increase in the general level of prices. If there's a shock to the price of oil, or food, or titanium dioxide, or iron ore, that's not inflation. That's a relative price change.

Bullshit. The rise in raw materials costs shocks the entire trade industry, from painters to builders. The rise in oil prices shocks the entire WORLD because the cost of energy goes up, increasing costs of doing business, which increases costs to consumers.

Indeed! That;s a nice, tight example of price shock. Not inflation.

You don't get to chose the meaning of words to fit your agenda.
 
This has been a most interesting discussion so far, and I think I have learned something in the process.

The problem lies in the fact that in society there are those that fully understand the myriad definitions of inflation and indices (probably less than 10% of the population); and everybody else who hears "inflation" or "CPI" and doesn't have the full contextual ability to understand that they are only being delivered a small part of the picture. The politic and media use this shamelessly.

Of course the economist understands everything objectively for everything that its worth, but everybody else feels like its a conspiracy against them. The problem isn't so much the economics profession (thought it is growing by leaps and bounds), so much as it is within the media and politicians who use selective economic language to represent a broader picture.
 
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Core inflation - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Core inflation is a measure of inflation, which excludes certain items that face volatile price movements, notably food and energy.

The preferred measure by the Federal Reserve of core inflation in the United States is the core Personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE). This is based on chained dollars...

The CPI is still used for many purposes, for example, for indexing social security [and] by central banks of other countries when measuring inflation. The CPI is presented monthly in the US by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This index tends to change more on a month to month basis than does "core inflation". This is because core inflation eliminates products that can have temporary price shocks (i.e. energy, food products). Core inflation is thus intended to be an indicator and predictor of underlying long-term inflation.
 
Core inflation - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Core inflation is a measure of inflation, which excludes certain items that face volatile price movements, notably food and energy.

The preferred measure by the Federal Reserve of core inflation in the United States is the core Personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE). This is based on chained dollars...

The CPI is still used for many purposes, for example, for indexing social security [and] by central banks of other countries when measuring inflation. The CPI is presented monthly in the US by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This index tends to change more on a month to month basis than does "core inflation". This is because core inflation eliminates products that can have temporary price shocks (i.e. energy, food products). Core inflation is thus intended to be an indicator and predictor of underlying long-term inflation.

Is this in response to somebody in particular?
unsure.gif
 
Jerry Khachoyan apologizes for C-PI "headline inflation" statistic. He observes, that the E-PI is biased (heavily) towards gas prices, without which the E-PI matches other inflation measures. The E-PI is a "short-term" measure, reflecting less than half of (average) annual spending (because "big items" are bought infrequently, but cost allot).
AIERepi.jpg
Prima facie, Price hikes reflect "sales Volumes" (dP ~ Q), with big-but-seldom-bought items lagging behind small-but-every-day items, in terms of (Price) inflation.

Prices for Paulie's paint additive (TiO2) have risen by nearly half over the last year. That's more than double even fuel inflation, evidently an exception. Other than fuel (and a few exceptions) overall Price inflation is ~3%.



A "supply shock" for TiO2 was reported in mid-2011. In late-2011, suppliers (e.g. DuPont) hiked Prices by several hundred dollars per ton (fifteen cents per pound). A "supply shock" suggests that production plummeted... Apparently, by late-2011, lack of recent investment had stalled production, even as demand for (painted) cars has increased...

in early-2011, DuPont announced investments into its TiO2 production capacity, slated for completion in 2014. They cited "voracious demand from China, India and other emerging markets is boosting prices, which have surged since mid-2009".
 
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It's not inflation. Oh my god, it's not inflation. Inflation doesn't mean "the price of something goes up". The definition of inflation is an increase in the general level of prices. If there's a shock to the price of oil, or food, or titanium dioxide, or iron ore, that's not inflation. That's a relative price change.

Bullshit. The rise in raw materials costs shocks the entire trade industry, from painters to builders. The rise in oil prices shocks the entire WORLD because the cost of energy goes up, increasing costs of doing business, which increases costs to consumers.

You live in a fucking fantasy world where book definitions, and statistical letter representations, and little phrases somehow make or break your entire economic viewpoint.

If my entire livelihood is more expensive, from business cost to personal consumption cost, that's inflation. Everything I do, from running my business, to gassing my vehicle, to heating my home, to putting food on my table, is costing myself and everyone else in this country MORE.

I call a spade a spade. You can have your textbooks.

You need to pull your fucking head out of your arse. Drop this humpty dumpty bullshit where a word is whatever you intend it to mean. "Inflation" is an idea with a very specific definition and implication. "To me inflation means that my prices are going up". You don't get to take words and redefine them so that they centre around you and then complain that measurements of that concept don't fit with your personal definition, you fucking narcissist. I will keep my books, thank you. How about you take the time to fucking read one.

A rise in price levels of a good or service over a period of time.

I have seen a significant rise in prices of SEVERAL goods and services, over the last 2 years specifically. Not just anecdotal, but nationwide.

At what point do we get to call it inflation, professor?
 
You're fighting over the symptom of the disease or the disease as the symptom. Inflation is that type of devil. It is easy to hide its true affect and meaning on economics because it is both. It is a raise the credit and supply of money and that translates into a weakened currency and therefore, higher prices. Only in command areas of sector can it be controlled, and or, exacerbated in that regard.

As it stands:

Inflation and credit expansion, the preferred methods of present day government openhandedness, do not add anything to the amount of resources available. They make some people more prosperous, but only to the extent that they make others poorer.
 
You're fighting over the symptom of the disease or the disease as the symptom. Inflation is that type of devil. It is easy to hide its true affect and meaning on economics because it is both. It is a raise the credit and supply of money and that translates into a weakened currency and therefore, higher prices. Only in command areas of sector can it be controlled, and or, exacerbated in that regard.

As it stands:

Inflation and credit expansion, the preferred methods of present day government openhandedness, do not add anything to the amount of resources available. They make some people more prosperous, but only to the extent that they make others poorer.

In some threads I don't bother arguing the Austrian definition of inflation, and just go along with the price level aspect for the sake of argument. In this case, price levels are increasing in several sectors over a period of time, and we're not even allowed to call that inflation.

Only if the government indices reflect it, otherwise we dare not make the claim :rolleyes:
 
But these guys can type out formulas such as M + VHAIK = RFBNIAI4 (HT + MVMVMMMMMVVVVVVV) - PTAHCN = DOGSHIT

So what the fuck do I know?
 
Well, if you know Austrian school economics you should know that economics is not a hard science like physics. It is a social science in the vein of human action and as such, can not be quantified with the same tools used in natural sciences.
 
Well, if you know Austrian school economics you should know that economics is not a hard science like physics. It is a social science in the vein of human action and as such, can not be quantified with the same tools used in natural sciences.

Exactly. That's why I don't take these few guys in this thread who quiz each other on complex formulas seriously.

In their world there's always a formula to explain a given conclusion, all you have to do is plug some numbers in and there's the answer.
 
I don't need a formula to explain the housing bubble, for instance.

Credit was cheap and people were irresponsible...lenders and borrowers alike.

It doesn't really need to be made into anything more complex.
 

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