Influential Covid-19 Models Were Horrifically Inaccurate & The Economic Decision To Shutdown The Economy Based On Them Was Wrong

[colfax_m]

The United States government shut down one of the strongest economies this nation has ever seen as it was still roaring, and the catastrophic decision to do so was based on projections by liberal academia experts who used obviously a flawed model / flawed models...

Numerous articles that have been written the last few weeks have begun to question HOW COULD 'EXPERTS' COULD HAVE CREATED A COVID-19 MODEL ADOPTED AND USED TO BASE SUCH MONUMENTAL POLICY UPON BE / HAVE BEEN SO EXTREMELY FAR OFF / FLAWED?


“It’s not a model that most of us in the infectious disease epidemiology field think is well suited” to projecting Covid-19 deaths, epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health told reporters this week, referring to projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington."

So the US Government, specifically the Trump administration, was pressured to accept this model and to base the decision to shut down the country - and the roaring economy - on this model advocated by such experts as this member of elitist Liberal academia, an 'expert' on epidemiology from Harvard.
-- Can anyone tell me the last time professors and experts rom liberal elitist indoctrination camps, er...colleges...ever supported Conservatives, Conservative ideology, or a Conservative President?

"A widely followed model for projecting Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever, and now epidemiologists are criticizing it as flawed and misleading for both the public and policy makers. In particular, they warn against relying on it as the basis for government decision-making, including on “re-opening America.”

Epidemiologists are now speaking out against the model advocated as the one this administration's policies should be based off of in this pandemic....

Several scientists have come out to say that 'experts' SHOULD NEVER HAVE BEEN THIS FAR OFF on their modeling...and more than one scientist is questioning WHY there was so much pressure applied to use it as the basis for critical policy decision:

"Others experts, including some colleagues of the model-makers, are even harsher. “That the IHME model keeps changing is evidence of its lack of reliability as a predictive tool,” said epidemiologist Ruth Etzioni of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, who has served on a search committee for IHME. “That it is being used for policy decisions and its results interpreted wrongly is a travesty unfolding before our eyes.”

The catastrophic impact on our economy due to policy decisions based on this horrifically flawed model will inevitably cause the government to make the argument that the final / actual infected and mortality rates are so far off the models due to the policy decisions made; however, this will be more 'political posturing' than a more factual assessment and confirmation that the models were inexplicably off.


There are 2 tried-and-true models that were completely ignored. Instead the model pushed was one that inspired far less confidence:

There are two tried-and-true ways to model an epidemic. The most established, dating back a century, calculates how many people are susceptible to a virus (in the case of the new coronavirus, everyone), how many become exposed, how many of those become infected, and how many recover and therefore have immunity (at least for a while).

"IHME uses neither a SEIR nor an agent-based approach. It doesn’t even try to model the transmission of disease, or the incubation period, or other features of Covid-19, as SEIR and agent-based models at Imperial College London and others do. It doesn’t try to account for how many infected people interact with how many others, how many additional cases each earlier case causes, or other facts of disease transmission that have been the foundation of epidemiology models for decades.

Instead, IHME starts with data from cities where Covid-19 struck before it hit the U.S., first Wuhan and now 19 cities in Italy and Spain."

The most obvious problem with IHME is the blind trust placed in China and the WHO when the virus was 1st reported, trust that was unwarranted. Evidence shows that China was NOT forthcoming with information about the virus in a timely manner - in fact, evidence shows China hid the outbreak. For example, evidence shows China knew about the outbreak as early as OCTOBER 2019 and not only hid news of the outbreak but also allowed the epidemic to spread globally by refusing to cancel international travel from the very epicenter of its outbreak. Furthermore, evidence shows the WHO knew about the epidemic sooner than revealed and were actually misleading the rest of the world by claiming COVID-19 was not a problem, that China was containing the outbreak, and encouraging countries NOT to close its border and impose Travel Bans. CHINA AND THE WHO MISLED THE REST OF THE WORLD FOR MONTHS, AND IN SITUATIONS LIKE THIS TIME = LIVES LOST!

Based on the fact that the IHME begins with and is based on honest, complete data shared by countries / governments / scientists - which China and the WHO STILL has not done, the model was disastrously wrong / inaccurate from the very start.

Many epidemiologists are now pointing out this is why the IHME should never have been considered and definitely should not been pushed as the model to use over the other 2 that do not rely on other governments' / bodies' transparency / willingness to share data.

After OFFICIALLY reporting their epidemic to the WHO China refused to share data, refused to allow the CDC to come in to assess and offer help, they hid / falsified their numbers, and even engaged in propaganda by attempting to claim the USN was responsible for introducing / releasing COVID-19 in China....

So how the hell did an 'expert epidemiologist' from Liberal elitist academia come to the conclusion that US policy should be based IHME that relied on non-existent cooperation, transparency, and virus data-sharing by the Chinese?

Influential Covid-19 model uses flawed methods and shouldn't guide U.S. policies, critics say

A widely followed model for projecting #coronavirus deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever.

www.statnews.com

.

The shutdown was caused by the asswipePINO's failure to act on January 10th. I have four bipartican MOC's that prove my case.

THE WHO and CHINA were both saying that the virus was not human to human communicable. We didnt even have ONE fucking case in the US until the 21st of January. Your telling me that we should have tanked our economy for a ghost?

They never said it was not human to human transmittable. They did say they didn't think it was highly contagious until they actually visited Wuhan. By Jan 21 they began to realize how transmittable it is.

‘I never said there was no human-to-human transmission’: China CDC chief

George Gao Fu says medical team concluded ‘very efficient’ transmission between people as soon as it visited Wuhan.

www.scmp.com

The WHO and China both stated as late as February 12th that there was no human to human transmission.. Epic fail at trying to rewrite history.

Not even close. The last issued statement that they did not believe it was transmitted this way was January 16th. Then on January 30th, they reversed.
WHO Calls Coronavirus ‘Emergency’ as Person-to-Person Spread Confirmed in U.S.

That was almost a full two months AFTER Taiwan warned the WHO that it was human to human... You just proved my point the China was LYING and so are you.

That’s also false.

LOL... Let me guess you watch CNN or MSDNC... who have lied to protect China.

Nope. I actually read. I know you’re lying, or were mislead. Either way, you’re repeating falsehoods.

 

[easyt65]

So now you blame democrats for trump guidelines? Wow that is stupid. Isn’t pence leading the charge?

Your reading comprehension level sucks, snowflake...or rather your transparent piss-poor attempts to spin do.

 

[easyt65]

I know you’re lying, or were mislead. Either way, you’re repeating falsehoods.

Supporting Link?

 

[colfax_m]

I put them into context. The media was saying there were very few cases in the country. They were correct at the time.

When things got worse in late February and early March, many in the media correctly stated that this is going to be a huge problem. They were also correct at the time.

But that’s also the point in time that Trump was accusing the media of overhyping the virus as a hoax to get him.

And now Trump is propagating that the media was minimizing it.

And you’re just going along with it.

Go ahead, tell me that you came up with this independently after Trump started pushing this narrative last week during a briefing which you have indicated you watch on a regular basis.

Maybe you don’t even remember that. You have a habit of conveniently forgetting things.

Gee, where to start with your bullshit....

China knew how bad their outbreak was in NOV 2019....and Democrats never held 1 Intel Committee hearing on it because they were pushing their treasonous admitted partisan Political Impeachment based on zero crime / evidence / witnesses, one they had already admitted would end in failure. Even in the 2 week lapse between Impeaching the President and finally sending it to the Senate they never held 1 meeting.

Democrats and the media started out completely downplaying COVID-19
- Dems like Pelosi and Cuomo told people to continue to 'herd' and go about their lives

..while President Trump activated the CDC, stood up the virus committee, declared an emergency, and instituted a travel ban

The Democrats opposed the ban, calling it 'hysterically xenophobic', which Berg provided the link to confirming it,

The Democrats have since declared it was the right thing to do....and tried to sell the BS that they would have enacted it sooner despite their every action at the time was to oppose everything Trump had done, meaning no travel ban would have ever been imposed had the Democrats been in power.

Once the media realized Trump had been right and his actions had been the right thing to do from the start they began to OVER-hype the virus, pushing the horrifically inaccurate Harvard-backed model.

If there was intelligence that China was covering up the virus, Trump didn’t share it with Congress.

So you’re stupid criticism that there wasn’t any hearings held on it, is actually a criticism of Trump’s attempt to cover it up. Or his laziness. Either way.

 

[BlindBoo]

The United States government shut down one of the strongest economies this nation has ever seen as it was still roaring, and the catastrophic decision to do so was based on projections by liberal academia experts who used obviously a flawed model / flawed models...

Numerous articles that have been written the last few weeks have begun to question HOW COULD 'EXPERTS' COULD HAVE CREATED A COVID-19 MODEL ADOPTED AND USED TO BASE SUCH MONUMENTAL POLICY UPON BE / HAVE BEEN SO EXTREMELY FAR OFF / FLAWED?


“It’s not a model that most of us in the infectious disease epidemiology field think is well suited” to projecting Covid-19 deaths, epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health told reporters this week, referring to projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington."

So the US Government, specifically the Trump administration, was pressured to accept this model and to base the decision to shut down the country - and the roaring economy - on this model advocated by such experts as this member of elitist Liberal academia, an 'expert' on epidemiology from Harvard.
-- Can anyone tell me the last time professors and experts rom liberal elitist indoctrination camps, er...colleges...ever supported Conservatives, Conservative ideology, or a Conservative President?

"A widely followed model for projecting Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever, and now epidemiologists are criticizing it as flawed and misleading for both the public and policy makers. In particular, they warn against relying on it as the basis for government decision-making, including on “re-opening America.”

Epidemiologists are now speaking out against the model advocated as the one this administration's policies should be based off of in this pandemic....

Several scientists have come out to say that 'experts' SHOULD NEVER HAVE BEEN THIS FAR OFF on their modeling...and more than one scientist is questioning WHY there was so much pressure applied to use it as the basis for critical policy decision:

"Others experts, including some colleagues of the model-makers, are even harsher. “That the IHME model keeps changing is evidence of its lack of reliability as a predictive tool,” said epidemiologist Ruth Etzioni of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, who has served on a search committee for IHME. “That it is being used for policy decisions and its results interpreted wrongly is a travesty unfolding before our eyes.”

The catastrophic impact on our economy due to policy decisions based on this horrifically flawed model will inevitably cause the government to make the argument that the final / actual infected and mortality rates are so far off the models due to the policy decisions made; however, this will be more 'political posturing' than a more factual assessment and confirmation that the models were inexplicably off.


There are 2 tried-and-true models that were completely ignored. Instead the model pushed was one that inspired far less confidence:

There are two tried-and-true ways to model an epidemic. The most established, dating back a century, calculates how many people are susceptible to a virus (in the case of the new coronavirus, everyone), how many become exposed, how many of those become infected, and how many recover and therefore have immunity (at least for a while).

"IHME uses neither a SEIR nor an agent-based approach. It doesn’t even try to model the transmission of disease, or the incubation period, or other features of Covid-19, as SEIR and agent-based models at Imperial College London and others do. It doesn’t try to account for how many infected people interact with how many others, how many additional cases each earlier case causes, or other facts of disease transmission that have been the foundation of epidemiology models for decades.

Instead, IHME starts with data from cities where Covid-19 struck before it hit the U.S., first Wuhan and now 19 cities in Italy and Spain."

The most obvious problem with IHME is the blind trust placed in China and the WHO when the virus was 1st reported, trust that was unwarranted. Evidence shows that China was NOT forthcoming with information about the virus in a timely manner - in fact, evidence shows China hid the outbreak. For example, evidence shows China knew about the outbreak as early as OCTOBER 2019 and not only hid news of the outbreak but also allowed the epidemic to spread globally by refusing to cancel international travel from the very epicenter of its outbreak. Furthermore, evidence shows the WHO knew about the epidemic sooner than revealed and were actually misleading the rest of the world by claiming COVID-19 was not a problem, that China was containing the outbreak, and encouraging countries NOT to close its border and impose Travel Bans. CHINA AND THE WHO MISLED THE REST OF THE WORLD FOR MONTHS, AND IN SITUATIONS LIKE THIS TIME = LIVES LOST!

Based on the fact that the IHME begins with and is based on honest, complete data shared by countries / governments / scientists - which China and the WHO STILL has not done, the model was disastrously wrong / inaccurate from the very start.

Many epidemiologists are now pointing out this is why the IHME should never have been considered and definitely should not been pushed as the model to use over the other 2 that do not rely on other governments' / bodies' transparency / willingness to share data.

After OFFICIALLY reporting their epidemic to the WHO China refused to share data, refused to allow the CDC to come in to assess and offer help, they hid / falsified their numbers, and even engaged in propaganda by attempting to claim the USN was responsible for introducing / releasing COVID-19 in China....

So how the hell did an 'expert epidemiologist' from Liberal elitist academia come to the conclusion that US policy should be based IHME that relied on non-existent cooperation, transparency, and virus data-sharing by the Chinese?

Influential Covid-19 model uses flawed methods and shouldn't guide U.S. policies, critics say

A widely followed model for projecting #coronavirus deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever.

www.statnews.com

.

The shutdown was caused by the asswipePINO's failure to act on January 10th. I have four bipartican MOC's that prove my case.

THE WHO and CHINA were both saying that the virus was not human to human communicable. We didnt even have ONE fucking case in the US until the 21st of January. Your telling me that we should have tanked our economy for a ghost?

They never said it was not human to human transmittable. They did say they didn't think it was highly contagious until they actually visited Wuhan. By Jan 21 they began to realize how transmittable it is.

‘I never said there was no human-to-human transmission’: China CDC chief

George Gao Fu says medical team concluded ‘very efficient’ transmission between people as soon as it visited Wuhan.

www.scmp.com

The WHO and China both stated as late as February 12th that there was no human to human transmission.. Epic fail at trying to rewrite history.

Not even close. The last issued statement that they did not believe it was transmitted this way was January 16th. Then on January 30th, they reversed.
WHO Calls Coronavirus ‘Emergency’ as Person-to-Person Spread Confirmed in U.S.

That was almost a full two months AFTER Taiwan warned the WHO that it was human to human... You just proved my point the China was LYING and so are you.

I reality Taiwan warned them in late December.

"Taiwan said its doctors had heard from mainland colleagues that medical staff were getting ill — a sign of human-to-human transmission."

Taiwan says WHO failed to act on coronavirus transmission warning

Relationship with Beijing blamed for not sharing alert over human-to-human infection

www.ft.com

 

[colfax_m]

I know you’re lying, or were mislead. Either way, you’re repeating falsehoods.

Supporting Link?

Not for you.

 

[AzogtheDefiler]

March Trump:

The United States government shut down one of the strongest economies this nation has ever seen as it was still roaring, and the catastrophic decision to do so was based on projections by liberal academia experts who used obviously a flawed model / flawed models...

Numerous articles that have been written the last few weeks have begun to question HOW COULD 'EXPERTS' COULD HAVE CREATED A COVID-19 MODEL ADOPTED AND USED TO BASE SUCH MONUMENTAL POLICY UPON BE / HAVE BEEN SO EXTREMELY FAR OFF / FLAWED?


“It’s not a model that most of us in the infectious disease epidemiology field think is well suited” to projecting Covid-19 deaths, epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health told reporters this week, referring to projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington."

So the US Government, specifically the Trump administration, was pressured to accept this model and to base the decision to shut down the country - and the roaring economy - on this model advocated by such experts as this member of elitist Liberal academia, an 'expert' on epidemiology from Harvard.
-- Can anyone tell me the last time professors and experts rom liberal elitist indoctrination camps, er...colleges...ever supported Conservatives, Conservative ideology, or a Conservative President?

"A widely followed model for projecting Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever, and now epidemiologists are criticizing it as flawed and misleading for both the public and policy makers. In particular, they warn against relying on it as the basis for government decision-making, including on “re-opening America.”

Epidemiologists are now speaking out against the model advocated as the one this administration's policies should be based off of in this pandemic....

Several scientists have come out to say that 'experts' SHOULD NEVER HAVE BEEN THIS FAR OFF on their modeling...and more than one scientist is questioning WHY there was so much pressure applied to use it as the basis for critical policy decision:

"Others experts, including some colleagues of the model-makers, are even harsher. “That the IHME model keeps changing is evidence of its lack of reliability as a predictive tool,” said epidemiologist Ruth Etzioni of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, who has served on a search committee for IHME. “That it is being used for policy decisions and its results interpreted wrongly is a travesty unfolding before our eyes.”

The catastrophic impact on our economy due to policy decisions based on this horrifically flawed model will inevitably cause the government to make the argument that the final / actual infected and mortality rates are so far off the models due to the policy decisions made; however, this will be more 'political posturing' than a more factual assessment and confirmation that the models were inexplicably off.


There are 2 tried-and-true models that were completely ignored. Instead the model pushed was one that inspired far less confidence:

There are two tried-and-true ways to model an epidemic. The most established, dating back a century, calculates how many people are susceptible to a virus (in the case of the new coronavirus, everyone), how many become exposed, how many of those become infected, and how many recover and therefore have immunity (at least for a while).

"IHME uses neither a SEIR nor an agent-based approach. It doesn’t even try to model the transmission of disease, or the incubation period, or other features of Covid-19, as SEIR and agent-based models at Imperial College London and others do. It doesn’t try to account for how many infected people interact with how many others, how many additional cases each earlier case causes, or other facts of disease transmission that have been the foundation of epidemiology models for decades.

Instead, IHME starts with data from cities where Covid-19 struck before it hit the U.S., first Wuhan and now 19 cities in Italy and Spain."

The most obvious problem with IHME is the blind trust placed in China and the WHO when the virus was 1st reported, trust that was unwarranted. Evidence shows that China was NOT forthcoming with information about the virus in a timely manner - in fact, evidence shows China hid the outbreak. For example, evidence shows China knew about the outbreak as early as OCTOBER 2019 and not only hid news of the outbreak but also allowed the epidemic to spread globally by refusing to cancel international travel from the very epicenter of its outbreak. Furthermore, evidence shows the WHO knew about the epidemic sooner than revealed and were actually misleading the rest of the world by claiming COVID-19 was not a problem, that China was containing the outbreak, and encouraging countries NOT to close its border and impose Travel Bans. CHINA AND THE WHO MISLED THE REST OF THE WORLD FOR MONTHS, AND IN SITUATIONS LIKE THIS TIME = LIVES LOST!

Based on the fact that the IHME begins with and is based on honest, complete data shared by countries / governments / scientists - which China and the WHO STILL has not done, the model was disastrously wrong / inaccurate from the very start.

Many epidemiologists are now pointing out this is why the IHME should never have been considered and definitely should not been pushed as the model to use over the other 2 that do not rely on other governments' / bodies' transparency / willingness to share data.

After OFFICIALLY reporting their epidemic to the WHO China refused to share data, refused to allow the CDC to come in to assess and offer help, they hid / falsified their numbers, and even engaged in propaganda by attempting to claim the USN was responsible for introducing / releasing COVID-19 in China....

So how the hell did an 'expert epidemiologist' from Liberal elitist academia come to the conclusion that US policy should be based IHME that relied on non-existent cooperation, transparency, and virus data-sharing by the Chinese?

Influential Covid-19 model uses flawed methods and shouldn't guide U.S. policies, critics say

A widely followed model for projecting #coronavirus deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever.

www.statnews.com

.

The shutdown was caused by the asswipePINO's failure to act on January 10th. I have four bipartican MOC's that prove my case.

You are an idiot. I have proven this countless times. You wanted Trump to shut down the Super Bowl? Moron.

Listen and weep.

Man. You guys really do just repeat whatever Trump says.

That video had zero to do with Trump. How can you possibly say that. This is why you have zero credibility with me. Please explain that statement. I posted a video that had NOTHING to do with him. Everything with leftists comes back to Trump. TDS?

Because this just so happens to be the new narrative that Trump has been pushing.

Is that a coincidence? Of course not. That’s why you have zero credibility.

The clips in the video are from January and early February when we had just a handful of cases. It’s dishonest.

But these are LIVE VIDEOS?!?!?!!? How can you dispute them?!?!?! From various sources. Illogical.

I put them into context. The media was saying there were very few cases in the country. They were correct at the time.

When things got worse in late February and early March, many in the media correctly stated that this is going to be a huge problem. They were also correct at the time.

But that’s also the point in time that Trump was accusing the media of overhyping the virus as a hoax to get him.

And now Trump is propagating that the media was minimizing it.

And you’re just going along with it.

Go ahead, tell me that you came up with this independently after Trump started pushing this narrative last week during a briefing which you have indicated you watch on a regular basis.

Maybe you don’t even remember that. You have a habit of conveniently forgetting things.

Until you agree not to bring Trump into this, I am not debating it. Trump is neither a doctor or a scientist. I want to discuss the video and all the experts saying the flu is much worse.

I already gave my response to the video and you decided to ignore it. The individuals in the videos were right at the time. The flu was worse in late January. It wasn’t until later that it became clear that we were in serious trouble. At that time, the media was criticized for “over hyping” the virus.

Now you want us to believe that they were downplaying it all along?

It’s intellectual dishonesty.

Thank you. So the experts downplayed it or not, IDK as the death toll is much lower than prognosticated and those who die with symptoms but not proven it is COVID-19 are still labeled as COVID-19 deaths. I also want to see the data on the deaths. Ages, pre-existing conditions, etc. Why is that not compiled and readily available. Hindsight being 20/20 we shut down all travel on Nov 1st from Europe and China and begin prepping hospitals but China lied and hence we are here. Of course this could have been handled better but NOT with the information that was given out.

I used to joke that you could watch CNN and MSDNC and then Fox and think you live in two different countries/worlds. It was humorous but now with this pandemic we don't know who to trust. Even doctors, scientists and economists are at odds. So I go back to what has carried me all my life.

My gut feeling. It is:

#1) China lied.
#2) Virus will destroy those in poor health or out of shape. I caught it. I am old at 39 but still in pretty good shape and I lost 15 pounds, no appetite but also no fever. Body just wanted to rest and rid itself of the virus. Key is being in shape and we are the fattest country in the world.
#3) Closing the economy was the correct step and probably 3 weeks too late. That being said We should reopen by June 1st. Cure cannot be worse than the disease. Seniors, those in poor health and fat people need to remain in social distancing for at least another six months, however.
#4) We need to amend our supply chains and hold China accountable for not telling the world to shut down on November 1st. Their fault but now there must be economic consequences.
#5) We need to come together over this and end political bickering. But we won't.

 

[easyt65]

If there was intelligence that China was covering up the virus, Trump didn’t share it with Congress.

Trump is PRESIDENT. He is not the head of US intelligence (17 separate agencies) and is not the Chairman of the House Intel Committee who is supposed to oversee US Intelligence. That would be the proven liar / traitor Adam Schiff, who was too busy at the time manufacturing and presenting fake evidence, committing Obstruction, and proving with his hilarious Impeachment hearings that he and the Democrats had zero crime, zero evidence, and zero witnesses.

FAIL, snowflake.

 

[easyt65]

Supporting Link?

Not for you.

Of course not. Thank you for continuously proving you spew lies, talking points, and uneducated, unsupported opinion. ZERO credibility. Have fun with that.

 

[Canon Shooter]

And not a swignin' dick on this forum would've been able to make decisions which were any more informed than those made by the administration.

How the hell would you know that?

Certainly Trump's denials and misnformation spread of the covid-19 risk in February rose well beyond what a lot of people, left and right were guaging it to be.

Beyond Trump's unique diarhia of the mouth administration's neglect on making testing available and stockpiling of medical supplies as China's cities went into shutdown was a blunder so gross that its tough to imagine others fucking up like that. There was no downside to make that a priority even if the inevitability of the spread beyond china wasn't certain.

Well, for starters, I'd imagine we have a President who can spell "diarrhea".

 

[colfax_m]

Trump is PRESIDENT. he is not the head of US intelligence (17 separate agencies)

Let me stop you right there before you go on.

Yes he is. Don’t be an idiot.

 

[colfax_m]

Supporting Link?

Not for you.

Of course not. Thank you for continuously proving you spew lies, talking points, and uneducated, unsupported opinion. ZERO credibility. Have fun with that.

Im not wasting any unnecessary time on you. You just make shit up all the time.

 

[easyt65]

Let me stop you right there before you go on. Yes he is. Don’t be an idiot.

So you believe it is the President's responsibility to do D-Adam Schiff's - the House Intelligence Committee Chairman - job?

Bwuhahahaha

 

[AzogtheDefiler]

Supporting Link?

Not for you.

Of course not. Thank you for continuously proving you spew lies, talking points, and uneducated, unsupported opinion. ZERO credibility. Have fun with that.

Im not wasting any unnecessary time on you. You just make shit up all the time.

Yeah...and I am the one that is mean and tough to debate with....those in glass houses...

 

[colfax_m]

March Trump:

The United States government shut down one of the strongest economies this nation has ever seen as it was still roaring, and the catastrophic decision to do so was based on projections by liberal academia experts who used obviously a flawed model / flawed models...

Numerous articles that have been written the last few weeks have begun to question HOW COULD 'EXPERTS' COULD HAVE CREATED A COVID-19 MODEL ADOPTED AND USED TO BASE SUCH MONUMENTAL POLICY UPON BE / HAVE BEEN SO EXTREMELY FAR OFF / FLAWED?


“It’s not a model that most of us in the infectious disease epidemiology field think is well suited” to projecting Covid-19 deaths, epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health told reporters this week, referring to projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington."

So the US Government, specifically the Trump administration, was pressured to accept this model and to base the decision to shut down the country - and the roaring economy - on this model advocated by such experts as this member of elitist Liberal academia, an 'expert' on epidemiology from Harvard.
-- Can anyone tell me the last time professors and experts rom liberal elitist indoctrination camps, er...colleges...ever supported Conservatives, Conservative ideology, or a Conservative President?

"A widely followed model for projecting Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever, and now epidemiologists are criticizing it as flawed and misleading for both the public and policy makers. In particular, they warn against relying on it as the basis for government decision-making, including on “re-opening America.”

Epidemiologists are now speaking out against the model advocated as the one this administration's policies should be based off of in this pandemic....

Several scientists have come out to say that 'experts' SHOULD NEVER HAVE BEEN THIS FAR OFF on their modeling...and more than one scientist is questioning WHY there was so much pressure applied to use it as the basis for critical policy decision:

"Others experts, including some colleagues of the model-makers, are even harsher. “That the IHME model keeps changing is evidence of its lack of reliability as a predictive tool,” said epidemiologist Ruth Etzioni of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, who has served on a search committee for IHME. “That it is being used for policy decisions and its results interpreted wrongly is a travesty unfolding before our eyes.”

The catastrophic impact on our economy due to policy decisions based on this horrifically flawed model will inevitably cause the government to make the argument that the final / actual infected and mortality rates are so far off the models due to the policy decisions made; however, this will be more 'political posturing' than a more factual assessment and confirmation that the models were inexplicably off.


There are 2 tried-and-true models that were completely ignored. Instead the model pushed was one that inspired far less confidence:

There are two tried-and-true ways to model an epidemic. The most established, dating back a century, calculates how many people are susceptible to a virus (in the case of the new coronavirus, everyone), how many become exposed, how many of those become infected, and how many recover and therefore have immunity (at least for a while).

"IHME uses neither a SEIR nor an agent-based approach. It doesn’t even try to model the transmission of disease, or the incubation period, or other features of Covid-19, as SEIR and agent-based models at Imperial College London and others do. It doesn’t try to account for how many infected people interact with how many others, how many additional cases each earlier case causes, or other facts of disease transmission that have been the foundation of epidemiology models for decades.

Instead, IHME starts with data from cities where Covid-19 struck before it hit the U.S., first Wuhan and now 19 cities in Italy and Spain."

The most obvious problem with IHME is the blind trust placed in China and the WHO when the virus was 1st reported, trust that was unwarranted. Evidence shows that China was NOT forthcoming with information about the virus in a timely manner - in fact, evidence shows China hid the outbreak. For example, evidence shows China knew about the outbreak as early as OCTOBER 2019 and not only hid news of the outbreak but also allowed the epidemic to spread globally by refusing to cancel international travel from the very epicenter of its outbreak. Furthermore, evidence shows the WHO knew about the epidemic sooner than revealed and were actually misleading the rest of the world by claiming COVID-19 was not a problem, that China was containing the outbreak, and encouraging countries NOT to close its border and impose Travel Bans. CHINA AND THE WHO MISLED THE REST OF THE WORLD FOR MONTHS, AND IN SITUATIONS LIKE THIS TIME = LIVES LOST!

Based on the fact that the IHME begins with and is based on honest, complete data shared by countries / governments / scientists - which China and the WHO STILL has not done, the model was disastrously wrong / inaccurate from the very start.

Many epidemiologists are now pointing out this is why the IHME should never have been considered and definitely should not been pushed as the model to use over the other 2 that do not rely on other governments' / bodies' transparency / willingness to share data.

After OFFICIALLY reporting their epidemic to the WHO China refused to share data, refused to allow the CDC to come in to assess and offer help, they hid / falsified their numbers, and even engaged in propaganda by attempting to claim the USN was responsible for introducing / releasing COVID-19 in China....

So how the hell did an 'expert epidemiologist' from Liberal elitist academia come to the conclusion that US policy should be based IHME that relied on non-existent cooperation, transparency, and virus data-sharing by the Chinese?

Influential Covid-19 model uses flawed methods and shouldn't guide U.S. policies, critics say

A widely followed model for projecting #coronavirus deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever.

www.statnews.com

.

The shutdown was caused by the asswipePINO's failure to act on January 10th. I have four bipartican MOC's that prove my case.

You are an idiot. I have proven this countless times. You wanted Trump to shut down the Super Bowl? Moron.

Listen and weep.

Man. You guys really do just repeat whatever Trump says.

That video had zero to do with Trump. How can you possibly say that. This is why you have zero credibility with me. Please explain that statement. I posted a video that had NOTHING to do with him. Everything with leftists comes back to Trump. TDS?

Because this just so happens to be the new narrative that Trump has been pushing.

Is that a coincidence? Of course not. That’s why you have zero credibility.

The clips in the video are from January and early February when we had just a handful of cases. It’s dishonest.

But these are LIVE VIDEOS?!?!?!!? How can you dispute them?!?!?! From various sources. Illogical.

I put them into context. The media was saying there were very few cases in the country. They were correct at the time.

When things got worse in late February and early March, many in the media correctly stated that this is going to be a huge problem. They were also correct at the time.

But that’s also the point in time that Trump was accusing the media of overhyping the virus as a hoax to get him.

And now Trump is propagating that the media was minimizing it.

And you’re just going along with it.

Go ahead, tell me that you came up with this independently after Trump started pushing this narrative last week during a briefing which you have indicated you watch on a regular basis.

Maybe you don’t even remember that. You have a habit of conveniently forgetting things.

Until you agree not to bring Trump into this, I am not debating it. Trump is neither a doctor or a scientist. I want to discuss the video and all the experts saying the flu is much worse.

I already gave my response to the video and you decided to ignore it. The individuals in the videos were right at the time. The flu was worse in late January. It wasn’t until later that it became clear that we were in serious trouble. At that time, the media was criticized for “over hyping” the virus.

Now you want us to believe that they were downplaying it all along?

It’s intellectual dishonesty.

Thank you. So the experts downplayed it or not, IDK as the death toll is much lower than prognosticated and those who die with symptoms but not proven it is COVID-19 are still labeled as COVID-19 deaths. I also want to see the data on the deaths. Ages, pre-existing conditions, etc. Why is that not compiled and readily available. Hindsight being 20/20 we shut down all travel on Nov 1st from Europe and China and begin prepping hospitals but China lied and hence we are here. Of course this could have been handled better but NOT with the information that was given out.

I used to joke that you could watch CNN and MSDNC and then Fox and think you live in two different countries/worlds. It was humorous but now with this pandemic we don't know who to trust. Even doctors, scientists and economists are at odds. So I go back to what has carried me all my life.

My gut feeling. It is:

#1) China lied.
#2) Virus will destroy those in poor health or out of shape. I caught it. I am old at 39 but still in pretty good shape and I lost 15 pounds, no appetite but also no fever. Body just wanted to rest and rid itself of the virus. Key is being in shape and we are the fattest country in the world.
#3) Closing the economy was the correct step and probably 3 weeks too late. That being said We should reopen by June 1st. Cure cannot be worse than the disease. Seniors, those in poor health and fat people need to remain in social distancing for at least another six months, however.
#4) We need to amend our supply chains and hold China accountable for not telling the world to shut down on November 1st. Their fault but now there must be economic consequences.
#5) We need to come together over this and end political bickering. But we won't.

Now you see how big a problem it is for Trump to purposefully drive a wedge in this country?

 

[easyt65]

Im not wasting any unnecessary time on you. You just make shit up all the time.

Your response to my asking you to present a link to support your OPINION is to say 'NOT FOR YOU' then run away.... Duly noted.

 

[AzogtheDefiler]

March Trump:

The United States government shut down one of the strongest economies this nation has ever seen as it was still roaring, and the catastrophic decision to do so was based on projections by liberal academia experts who used obviously a flawed model / flawed models...

Numerous articles that have been written the last few weeks have begun to question HOW COULD 'EXPERTS' COULD HAVE CREATED A COVID-19 MODEL ADOPTED AND USED TO BASE SUCH MONUMENTAL POLICY UPON BE / HAVE BEEN SO EXTREMELY FAR OFF / FLAWED?


“It’s not a model that most of us in the infectious disease epidemiology field think is well suited” to projecting Covid-19 deaths, epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health told reporters this week, referring to projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington."

So the US Government, specifically the Trump administration, was pressured to accept this model and to base the decision to shut down the country - and the roaring economy - on this model advocated by such experts as this member of elitist Liberal academia, an 'expert' on epidemiology from Harvard.
-- Can anyone tell me the last time professors and experts rom liberal elitist indoctrination camps, er...colleges...ever supported Conservatives, Conservative ideology, or a Conservative President?

"A widely followed model for projecting Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever, and now epidemiologists are criticizing it as flawed and misleading for both the public and policy makers. In particular, they warn against relying on it as the basis for government decision-making, including on “re-opening America.”

Epidemiologists are now speaking out against the model advocated as the one this administration's policies should be based off of in this pandemic....

Several scientists have come out to say that 'experts' SHOULD NEVER HAVE BEEN THIS FAR OFF on their modeling...and more than one scientist is questioning WHY there was so much pressure applied to use it as the basis for critical policy decision:

"Others experts, including some colleagues of the model-makers, are even harsher. “That the IHME model keeps changing is evidence of its lack of reliability as a predictive tool,” said epidemiologist Ruth Etzioni of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, who has served on a search committee for IHME. “That it is being used for policy decisions and its results interpreted wrongly is a travesty unfolding before our eyes.”

The catastrophic impact on our economy due to policy decisions based on this horrifically flawed model will inevitably cause the government to make the argument that the final / actual infected and mortality rates are so far off the models due to the policy decisions made; however, this will be more 'political posturing' than a more factual assessment and confirmation that the models were inexplicably off.


There are 2 tried-and-true models that were completely ignored. Instead the model pushed was one that inspired far less confidence:

There are two tried-and-true ways to model an epidemic. The most established, dating back a century, calculates how many people are susceptible to a virus (in the case of the new coronavirus, everyone), how many become exposed, how many of those become infected, and how many recover and therefore have immunity (at least for a while).

"IHME uses neither a SEIR nor an agent-based approach. It doesn’t even try to model the transmission of disease, or the incubation period, or other features of Covid-19, as SEIR and agent-based models at Imperial College London and others do. It doesn’t try to account for how many infected people interact with how many others, how many additional cases each earlier case causes, or other facts of disease transmission that have been the foundation of epidemiology models for decades.

Instead, IHME starts with data from cities where Covid-19 struck before it hit the U.S., first Wuhan and now 19 cities in Italy and Spain."

The most obvious problem with IHME is the blind trust placed in China and the WHO when the virus was 1st reported, trust that was unwarranted. Evidence shows that China was NOT forthcoming with information about the virus in a timely manner - in fact, evidence shows China hid the outbreak. For example, evidence shows China knew about the outbreak as early as OCTOBER 2019 and not only hid news of the outbreak but also allowed the epidemic to spread globally by refusing to cancel international travel from the very epicenter of its outbreak. Furthermore, evidence shows the WHO knew about the epidemic sooner than revealed and were actually misleading the rest of the world by claiming COVID-19 was not a problem, that China was containing the outbreak, and encouraging countries NOT to close its border and impose Travel Bans. CHINA AND THE WHO MISLED THE REST OF THE WORLD FOR MONTHS, AND IN SITUATIONS LIKE THIS TIME = LIVES LOST!

Based on the fact that the IHME begins with and is based on honest, complete data shared by countries / governments / scientists - which China and the WHO STILL has not done, the model was disastrously wrong / inaccurate from the very start.

Many epidemiologists are now pointing out this is why the IHME should never have been considered and definitely should not been pushed as the model to use over the other 2 that do not rely on other governments' / bodies' transparency / willingness to share data.

After OFFICIALLY reporting their epidemic to the WHO China refused to share data, refused to allow the CDC to come in to assess and offer help, they hid / falsified their numbers, and even engaged in propaganda by attempting to claim the USN was responsible for introducing / releasing COVID-19 in China....

So how the hell did an 'expert epidemiologist' from Liberal elitist academia come to the conclusion that US policy should be based IHME that relied on non-existent cooperation, transparency, and virus data-sharing by the Chinese?

Influential Covid-19 model uses flawed methods and shouldn't guide U.S. policies, critics say

A widely followed model for projecting #coronavirus deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever.

www.statnews.com

.

The shutdown was caused by the asswipePINO's failure to act on January 10th. I have four bipartican MOC's that prove my case.

You are an idiot. I have proven this countless times. You wanted Trump to shut down the Super Bowl? Moron.

Listen and weep.

Man. You guys really do just repeat whatever Trump says.

That video had zero to do with Trump. How can you possibly say that. This is why you have zero credibility with me. Please explain that statement. I posted a video that had NOTHING to do with him. Everything with leftists comes back to Trump. TDS?

Because this just so happens to be the new narrative that Trump has been pushing.

Is that a coincidence? Of course not. That’s why you have zero credibility.

The clips in the video are from January and early February when we had just a handful of cases. It’s dishonest.

But these are LIVE VIDEOS?!?!?!!? How can you dispute them?!?!?! From various sources. Illogical.

I put them into context. The media was saying there were very few cases in the country. They were correct at the time.

When things got worse in late February and early March, many in the media correctly stated that this is going to be a huge problem. They were also correct at the time.

But that’s also the point in time that Trump was accusing the media of overhyping the virus as a hoax to get him.

And now Trump is propagating that the media was minimizing it.

And you’re just going along with it.

Go ahead, tell me that you came up with this independently after Trump started pushing this narrative last week during a briefing which you have indicated you watch on a regular basis.

Maybe you don’t even remember that. You have a habit of conveniently forgetting things.

Until you agree not to bring Trump into this, I am not debating it. Trump is neither a doctor or a scientist. I want to discuss the video and all the experts saying the flu is much worse.

I already gave my response to the video and you decided to ignore it. The individuals in the videos were right at the time. The flu was worse in late January. It wasn’t until later that it became clear that we were in serious trouble. At that time, the media was criticized for “over hyping” the virus.

Now you want us to believe that they were downplaying it all along?

It’s intellectual dishonesty.

Thank you. So the experts downplayed it or not, IDK as the death toll is much lower than prognosticated and those who die with symptoms but not proven it is COVID-19 are still labeled as COVID-19 deaths. I also want to see the data on the deaths. Ages, pre-existing conditions, etc. Why is that not compiled and readily available. Hindsight being 20/20 we shut down all travel on Nov 1st from Europe and China and begin prepping hospitals but China lied and hence we are here. Of course this could have been handled better but NOT with the information that was given out.

I used to joke that you could watch CNN and MSDNC and then Fox and think you live in two different countries/worlds. It was humorous but now with this pandemic we don't know who to trust. Even doctors, scientists and economists are at odds. So I go back to what has carried me all my life.

My gut feeling. It is:

#1) China lied.
#2) Virus will destroy those in poor health or out of shape. I caught it. I am old at 39 but still in pretty good shape and I lost 15 pounds, no appetite but also no fever. Body just wanted to rest and rid itself of the virus. Key is being in shape and we are the fattest country in the world.
#3) Closing the economy was the correct step and probably 3 weeks too late. That being said We should reopen by June 1st. Cure cannot be worse than the disease. Seniors, those in poor health and fat people need to remain in social distancing for at least another six months, however.
#4) We need to amend our supply chains and hold China accountable for not telling the world to shut down on November 1st. Their fault but now there must be economic consequences.
#5) We need to come together over this and end political bickering. But we won't.

Now you see how big a problem it is for Trump to purposefully drive a wedge in this country?

Trump is the effect not the cause. That wedge was there long before he arrived. How do you not see that?

 

[colfax_m]

Let me stop you right there before you go on. Yes he is. Don’t be an idiot.

So you believe it is the President's responsibility to do D-Adam Schiff's - the House Intelligence Committee Chairman - job?

Bwuhahahaha

Are you ready to admit that Trump is the head of US intelligence and not Schiff? Who do you think the DNI reports to?

 

[colfax_m]

March Trump:

The United States government shut down one of the strongest economies this nation has ever seen as it was still roaring, and the catastrophic decision to do so was based on projections by liberal academia experts who used obviously a flawed model / flawed models...

Numerous articles that have been written the last few weeks have begun to question HOW COULD 'EXPERTS' COULD HAVE CREATED A COVID-19 MODEL ADOPTED AND USED TO BASE SUCH MONUMENTAL POLICY UPON BE / HAVE BEEN SO EXTREMELY FAR OFF / FLAWED?


“It’s not a model that most of us in the infectious disease epidemiology field think is well suited” to projecting Covid-19 deaths, epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health told reporters this week, referring to projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington."

So the US Government, specifically the Trump administration, was pressured to accept this model and to base the decision to shut down the country - and the roaring economy - on this model advocated by such experts as this member of elitist Liberal academia, an 'expert' on epidemiology from Harvard.
-- Can anyone tell me the last time professors and experts rom liberal elitist indoctrination camps, er...colleges...ever supported Conservatives, Conservative ideology, or a Conservative President?

"A widely followed model for projecting Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever, and now epidemiologists are criticizing it as flawed and misleading for both the public and policy makers. In particular, they warn against relying on it as the basis for government decision-making, including on “re-opening America.”

Epidemiologists are now speaking out against the model advocated as the one this administration's policies should be based off of in this pandemic....

Several scientists have come out to say that 'experts' SHOULD NEVER HAVE BEEN THIS FAR OFF on their modeling...and more than one scientist is questioning WHY there was so much pressure applied to use it as the basis for critical policy decision:

"Others experts, including some colleagues of the model-makers, are even harsher. “That the IHME model keeps changing is evidence of its lack of reliability as a predictive tool,” said epidemiologist Ruth Etzioni of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, who has served on a search committee for IHME. “That it is being used for policy decisions and its results interpreted wrongly is a travesty unfolding before our eyes.”

The catastrophic impact on our economy due to policy decisions based on this horrifically flawed model will inevitably cause the government to make the argument that the final / actual infected and mortality rates are so far off the models due to the policy decisions made; however, this will be more 'political posturing' than a more factual assessment and confirmation that the models were inexplicably off.


There are 2 tried-and-true models that were completely ignored. Instead the model pushed was one that inspired far less confidence:

There are two tried-and-true ways to model an epidemic. The most established, dating back a century, calculates how many people are susceptible to a virus (in the case of the new coronavirus, everyone), how many become exposed, how many of those become infected, and how many recover and therefore have immunity (at least for a while).

"IHME uses neither a SEIR nor an agent-based approach. It doesn’t even try to model the transmission of disease, or the incubation period, or other features of Covid-19, as SEIR and agent-based models at Imperial College London and others do. It doesn’t try to account for how many infected people interact with how many others, how many additional cases each earlier case causes, or other facts of disease transmission that have been the foundation of epidemiology models for decades.

Instead, IHME starts with data from cities where Covid-19 struck before it hit the U.S., first Wuhan and now 19 cities in Italy and Spain."

The most obvious problem with IHME is the blind trust placed in China and the WHO when the virus was 1st reported, trust that was unwarranted. Evidence shows that China was NOT forthcoming with information about the virus in a timely manner - in fact, evidence shows China hid the outbreak. For example, evidence shows China knew about the outbreak as early as OCTOBER 2019 and not only hid news of the outbreak but also allowed the epidemic to spread globally by refusing to cancel international travel from the very epicenter of its outbreak. Furthermore, evidence shows the WHO knew about the epidemic sooner than revealed and were actually misleading the rest of the world by claiming COVID-19 was not a problem, that China was containing the outbreak, and encouraging countries NOT to close its border and impose Travel Bans. CHINA AND THE WHO MISLED THE REST OF THE WORLD FOR MONTHS, AND IN SITUATIONS LIKE THIS TIME = LIVES LOST!

Based on the fact that the IHME begins with and is based on honest, complete data shared by countries / governments / scientists - which China and the WHO STILL has not done, the model was disastrously wrong / inaccurate from the very start.

Many epidemiologists are now pointing out this is why the IHME should never have been considered and definitely should not been pushed as the model to use over the other 2 that do not rely on other governments' / bodies' transparency / willingness to share data.

After OFFICIALLY reporting their epidemic to the WHO China refused to share data, refused to allow the CDC to come in to assess and offer help, they hid / falsified their numbers, and even engaged in propaganda by attempting to claim the USN was responsible for introducing / releasing COVID-19 in China....

So how the hell did an 'expert epidemiologist' from Liberal elitist academia come to the conclusion that US policy should be based IHME that relied on non-existent cooperation, transparency, and virus data-sharing by the Chinese?

Influential Covid-19 model uses flawed methods and shouldn't guide U.S. policies, critics say

A widely followed model for projecting #coronavirus deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever.

www.statnews.com

.

The shutdown was caused by the asswipePINO's failure to act on January 10th. I have four bipartican MOC's that prove my case.

You are an idiot. I have proven this countless times. You wanted Trump to shut down the Super Bowl? Moron.

Listen and weep.

Man. You guys really do just repeat whatever Trump says.

That video had zero to do with Trump. How can you possibly say that. This is why you have zero credibility with me. Please explain that statement. I posted a video that had NOTHING to do with him. Everything with leftists comes back to Trump. TDS?

Because this just so happens to be the new narrative that Trump has been pushing.

Is that a coincidence? Of course not. That’s why you have zero credibility.

The clips in the video are from January and early February when we had just a handful of cases. It’s dishonest.

But these are LIVE VIDEOS?!?!?!!? How can you dispute them?!?!?! From various sources. Illogical.

I put them into context. The media was saying there were very few cases in the country. They were correct at the time.

When things got worse in late February and early March, many in the media correctly stated that this is going to be a huge problem. They were also correct at the time.

But that’s also the point in time that Trump was accusing the media of overhyping the virus as a hoax to get him.

And now Trump is propagating that the media was minimizing it.

And you’re just going along with it.

Go ahead, tell me that you came up with this independently after Trump started pushing this narrative last week during a briefing which you have indicated you watch on a regular basis.

Maybe you don’t even remember that. You have a habit of conveniently forgetting things.

Until you agree not to bring Trump into this, I am not debating it. Trump is neither a doctor or a scientist. I want to discuss the video and all the experts saying the flu is much worse.

I already gave my response to the video and you decided to ignore it. The individuals in the videos were right at the time. The flu was worse in late January. It wasn’t until later that it became clear that we were in serious trouble. At that time, the media was criticized for “over hyping” the virus.

Now you want us to believe that they were downplaying it all along?

It’s intellectual dishonesty.

Thank you. So the experts downplayed it or not, IDK as the death toll is much lower than prognosticated and those who die with symptoms but not proven it is COVID-19 are still labeled as COVID-19 deaths. I also want to see the data on the deaths. Ages, pre-existing conditions, etc. Why is that not compiled and readily available. Hindsight being 20/20 we shut down all travel on Nov 1st from Europe and China and begin prepping hospitals but China lied and hence we are here. Of course this could have been handled better but NOT with the information that was given out.

I used to joke that you could watch CNN and MSDNC and then Fox and think you live in two different countries/worlds. It was humorous but now with this pandemic we don't know who to trust. Even doctors, scientists and economists are at odds. So I go back to what has carried me all my life.

My gut feeling. It is:

#1) China lied.
#2) Virus will destroy those in poor health or out of shape. I caught it. I am old at 39 but still in pretty good shape and I lost 15 pounds, no appetite but also no fever. Body just wanted to rest and rid itself of the virus. Key is being in shape and we are the fattest country in the world.
#3) Closing the economy was the correct step and probably 3 weeks too late. That being said We should reopen by June 1st. Cure cannot be worse than the disease. Seniors, those in poor health and fat people need to remain in social distancing for at least another six months, however.
#4) We need to amend our supply chains and hold China accountable for not telling the world to shut down on November 1st. Their fault but now there must be economic consequences.
#5) We need to come together over this and end political bickering. But we won't.

Now you see how big a problem it is for Trump to purposefully drive a wedge in this country?

Trump is the effect not the cause. That wedge was there long before he arrived. How do you not see that?

You said yourself you voted for him because he made liberals mad.

He didn’t start it. I agree. He exacerbated it and used it to gain power.

That’s the problem that you refuse to admit.

 

[Nostra]

The United States government shut down one of the strongest economies this nation has ever seen as it was still roaring, and the catastrophic decision to do so was based on projections by liberal academia experts who used obviously a flawed model / flawed models...

Numerous articles that have been written the last few weeks have begun to question HOW COULD 'EXPERTS' COULD HAVE CREATED A COVID-19 MODEL ADOPTED AND USED TO BASE SUCH MONUMENTAL POLICY UPON BE / HAVE BEEN SO EXTREMELY FAR OFF / FLAWED?


“It’s not a model that most of us in the infectious disease epidemiology field think is well suited” to projecting Covid-19 deaths, epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health told reporters this week, referring to projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington."

So the US Government, specifically the Trump administration, was pressured to accept this model and to base the decision to shut down the country - and the roaring economy - on this model advocated by such experts as this member of elitist Liberal academia, an 'expert' on epidemiology from Harvard.
-- Can anyone tell me the last time professors and experts rom liberal elitist indoctrination camps, er...colleges...ever supported Conservatives, Conservative ideology, or a Conservative President?

"A widely followed model for projecting Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever, and now epidemiologists are criticizing it as flawed and misleading for both the public and policy makers. In particular, they warn against relying on it as the basis for government decision-making, including on “re-opening America.”

Epidemiologists are now speaking out against the model advocated as the one this administration's policies should be based off of in this pandemic....

Several scientists have come out to say that 'experts' SHOULD NEVER HAVE BEEN THIS FAR OFF on their modeling...and more than one scientist is questioning WHY there was so much pressure applied to use it as the basis for critical policy decision:

"Others experts, including some colleagues of the model-makers, are even harsher. “That the IHME model keeps changing is evidence of its lack of reliability as a predictive tool,” said epidemiologist Ruth Etzioni of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, who has served on a search committee for IHME. “That it is being used for policy decisions and its results interpreted wrongly is a travesty unfolding before our eyes.”

The catastrophic impact on our economy due to policy decisions based on this horrifically flawed model will inevitably cause the government to make the argument that the final / actual infected and mortality rates are so far off the models due to the policy decisions made; however, this will be more 'political posturing' than a more factual assessment and confirmation that the models were inexplicably off.


There are 2 tried-and-true models that were completely ignored. Instead the model pushed was one that inspired far less confidence:

There are two tried-and-true ways to model an epidemic. The most established, dating back a century, calculates how many people are susceptible to a virus (in the case of the new coronavirus, everyone), how many become exposed, how many of those become infected, and how many recover and therefore have immunity (at least for a while).

"IHME uses neither a SEIR nor an agent-based approach. It doesn’t even try to model the transmission of disease, or the incubation period, or other features of Covid-19, as SEIR and agent-based models at Imperial College London and others do. It doesn’t try to account for how many infected people interact with how many others, how many additional cases each earlier case causes, or other facts of disease transmission that have been the foundation of epidemiology models for decades.

Instead, IHME starts with data from cities where Covid-19 struck before it hit the U.S., first Wuhan and now 19 cities in Italy and Spain."

The most obvious problem with IHME is the blind trust placed in China and the WHO when the virus was 1st reported, trust that was unwarranted. Evidence shows that China was NOT forthcoming with information about the virus in a timely manner - in fact, evidence shows China hid the outbreak. For example, evidence shows China knew about the outbreak as early as OCTOBER 2019 and not only hid news of the outbreak but also allowed the epidemic to spread globally by refusing to cancel international travel from the very epicenter of its outbreak. Furthermore, evidence shows the WHO knew about the epidemic sooner than revealed and were actually misleading the rest of the world by claiming COVID-19 was not a problem, that China was containing the outbreak, and encouraging countries NOT to close its border and impose Travel Bans. CHINA AND THE WHO MISLED THE REST OF THE WORLD FOR MONTHS, AND IN SITUATIONS LIKE THIS TIME = LIVES LOST!

Based on the fact that the IHME begins with and is based on honest, complete data shared by countries / governments / scientists - which China and the WHO STILL has not done, the model was disastrously wrong / inaccurate from the very start.

Many epidemiologists are now pointing out this is why the IHME should never have been considered and definitely should not been pushed as the model to use over the other 2 that do not rely on other governments' / bodies' transparency / willingness to share data.

After OFFICIALLY reporting their epidemic to the WHO China refused to share data, refused to allow the CDC to come in to assess and offer help, they hid / falsified their numbers, and even engaged in propaganda by attempting to claim the USN was responsible for introducing / releasing COVID-19 in China....

So how the hell did an 'expert epidemiologist' from Liberal elitist academia come to the conclusion that US policy should be based IHME that relied on non-existent cooperation, transparency, and virus data-sharing by the Chinese?

Influential Covid-19 model uses flawed methods and shouldn't guide U.S. policies, critics say

A widely followed model for projecting #coronavirus deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever.

www.statnews.com

.

Inaccurate? It went from 2.2 MILLION dead to 60,000.

Inaccurate is an understatement.