Statistikhengst
Diamond Member
- Banned
- #341
RWNJ? Really? The best you have for my post is asinine insults. Perhaps you can point out where I have stated something that is worthy of the nut job title? No? I thought not – why not try and address the points instead.In a bad way compared to their expectations leading up to this point. In a bad way for Obama’s last few years where none of his agenda will go anywhere because he will no longer have a cooperative legislative branch. The fact is that the democrats have been telling everyone how the Republican Party is dying. How the republicans cannot win an election. How they are destined to lose the house.
Now that reality is setting in, they are going to have to accept the fact that this hyperbole has no substance whatsoever.
This gets tiring, but apparently, RWNJs like it to be tiring.
Electoral history was on the side of Jolly (R) from the get-go:
http://www.usmessageboard.com/elect...pared-to-presidential-terms-1855-present.html
Exact chart:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...WmxQNjAtOFFvM3p4S3NvTWRGNGc&usp=sharing#gid=0
(that was hours and hours of work, btw)
And my estimate and prediction, here:
http://www.usmessageboard.com/elect...re-was-an-election-last-night-in-fl-13-a.html
No polling that I know of to date. But the electoral history of this District indicates:
Advantage GOP.
It might be helpful to remember that one race does not make a trend. This year should be a GOP year, anyway. That is in-line with electoral history.
It’s only getting tiring because you are arguing against something that I have not stated and addressing points that I have not raised. You completely ignored the post that you quoted – if you were going to do that then why bother quoting it.
You are taking the history of this race out of context with its current political landscape. The reality here is that this is exactly the type of race that the democrats need to take in order to change the landscape over the next two years. They need to overcome the traditional midterm loss to take the house and make the last two years of Obama’s presidency effective. They have been predicting the end of the Republican Party for years now – it’s time to put their money where their mouth is. This is not likely to happen but it certainly is not impossible and a win here would have shown that they have a better fighting chance.
If the dems cannot take seats like this while even outspending the republican opponent then it is unlikely that they can take the house back. Without the house, the next two years are going to be very unproductive for Obama. Even worse, should they lose the senate, the republicans will have enough control over the dialogue to give them a fighting chance in 2016. If the dems manage to take the house and hold the senate then that sets them up very nicely for 2016 (unless the screw it up which is likely given past total control time periods). Granted, this race has implications for house seats but no real indication on senate ones who’s races are entirely different animals from the house.
I can cut to the chase for you there, buddy, since you obviously did not read one fucking bit of the information I posted.
The DEMS are not going to win the House back. They will be lucky to end up with a Null-Sum game at the end. I bet that they lose maybe 11-12 more seats, under the current conditions.
The GOP is VERY likely to pick up the Senate. Even if the GOP loses KY (which is a real possibility) and GA (could also happen), there are at least 8 really reachable targets for the GOP and it looks right now that 5 of them are already in the bag. How the DEMS spend in the Fall will tell us what they think their own chances are, but it looks grim for the DEMS. And we know it.
Don't forget, I am a Democrat, I voted for Obama and would do it again, in a heartbeat, mostly because the GOP put up two crappy candidates in a row.
But electoral history is electoral history and it is clearly against the Democratic Party in this mid-term cycle, just like it was in 2010. It is absolutely irrelevant what is going on - or not going on - with Obamacare. The Crimea is absolutely irrelevant in this mid-term election. It doesn't matter if unemployment goes down 1 point or up 1 point. Regardless of political climate, the opposition party has made gains, mostly substantial gains, in one or probably both Houses of the Congress in virtually all mid-terms, esp. in a 2nd term mid-term. How much clearer do I have to fucking spell that out for you? It was all there at the links I provided, stuff I researched LONG before you guys were howling like banshees. Reading and comprehension are your friends.
In 1954 and 1958, Eisenhower's GOP took massive hits in the Congress, despite the fact that most people were very tired of 24 years of DEM rule in the Executive (hence, Eisenhower's massive landslide in 1952) and Eisenhower himself was a very, very popular president. The was also not the kind of economic mini-depression like we have gone through. If it was always only about issues, based on Eisenhower's popularity, the GOP should have romped in congress, but it didn't. Eisenhower took more of a hit in 1958 in 1954, in his second term.
In the 20th century up until now, the opposition party has made gains in every single mid-term save 1934, 1938, 1962, 1978, 1998 and 2008. That's just six cycles.
That leaves us with 1902, 1906, 1910, 1914, 1918, 1922, 1926, 1930, [B 1942, 1946, 1950[/B], 1954, 1958, 1966, 1970 (slightly), 1974 (massively), 1982, 1986, 1990, 1994 (massively), 2006 and 2010. That's 22 out of 28 mid-term cycles where the opposition party made measurable gains in congress.
22 / 28 = 78.57%. I give it a good 90% chance that the GOP has a wave in November, right in line with electoral history since 1854, or 160 years.
And after November, that statistic will be 23 / 29, or 79.31%
The bolded years = 2nd term mid-terms or years that felt like it (see: Truman, 1946)
It has all to do with voter habits and mentality. The economy could be purring along and all could be well in the world and the DEM would STILL be very likely to lose in the fall. I don't have to measure the intensity of even one issue to see that coming. The only real surprise in the last years was that the GOP didn't take the Senate in 2010.
I am predicting FOR YOUR TEAM, and you all are still pissed. Damn, get some common sense, people!
At some point in time, you need to start reading for content instead of just coming out with raw anger.
[MENTION=20412]JakeStarkey[/MENTION] - they always this mad over nothing? Really? Are they always this childish, even when someone is speaking ON THEIR BEHALF? Wow. Fucking amazing.
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