bendog
Diamond Member
You presume Ginsberg's seat will be the next vacancy. That may or may not be true.Lets presume that the GOP does NOT change the current filibuster rules.He'll have to do something. The dems can fillubuster to death any Scalia replacement. There will be at least two gop senators who want some compromise to keep the filibuster as it is. No one is happy with what Reid did.
The actual nominees will be up to Trump, and that's crazy enough.
And lets presume Schumer filibusters all GOP nominations to the SCOTUS.
Right now they are 4 to 4 split, and so the various circuit court rulings on controversial political issues will all stand.
So each of the circuit courts is in summa a de facto SCOTUS justice appointment.
BUT when Ginsberg dies, then it will become to 3 vs 3 with 1 swing voter.
And then the tie is broken.
So Schumer is doomed, no matter what he does.
It is all in the hands of God now.
The other unknowns are whether Trump will be a one termer, and it's a certainty that while the dems defend many more seats in 2018, the opposite is the case for 2020. The smart move for McConnell would be a deal to give Trump one certain seat, and two if another opens up, in one term. The worst the gop does is maintain a 5-4 advantage with Kennedy being the only goper 80 or over.