Looks like Thom Tillis (R-NC) will be a one-term Senator

[busybee01]

Almost always siding with the wishes of toxic President Donald "Mr. Make Matters Worse" Trump sure isn't helping Tillis:

New NBC/Marist poll offers more encouraging news for Biden and Cunningham • NC Newsline

2020 election; NBC News/Marist poll shows Joe Biden and Cal Cunningham running well-ahead of Donald Trump and Thom Tillis

pulse.ncpolicywatch.org

/——/ Another fake poll of 818. From your link after a lot of digging:
In the Presidential race Joe Biden leads Donald Trump 50-46, up from a 48-46 spread a couple weeks ago. So they found 407 who hate Trump and they had to over sample democRATs.

PPP interviewed 818 North Carolina voters on July 7th and 8th. The margin of error is +/-3.4%. Full results here:
If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, press 2. If an independent, press 3.
Democrat ........................................................ 38%
Republican ...................................................... 32%
Independent .................................................... 30%
Q8 If you are white, press 1.
If African-American,
press 2. If White............73%
African-American ............................................ 21%
Other..........................................6%

What looks fake?

/——/ Only 818 sampled out of 7,000,000 NC voters is .00011%, a meaningless sample, plus an over sampling of democRATs. It was a poll to create a news story and help Dem democRATs raise money. Show me a poll of 1,500 likely voters with those results, then I’ll worry. What confuses you?

Why do Conservatives struggle so much with Statistical Sampling Theory? I realize it is more advanced mathematics than the arithmetic Conservatives are limited to, but it is not really that hard.

Each poll has a margin of error based on the sample size. That margin will show the range the poll falls in.

Polls are conducted randomly. A poll structured to give you 50 percent Dems and 50 percent RepubliKlans will give you a 50/50 result. It is the Independents who will swing the election

/----/ Uhhh, three groups were sampled Repubs, Dims, and Indies. That makes it 33% each not 50/50.
I used to buy into these polls. Then I started studying the methodology closely and learned a great deal. A poll is a snapshot, not a forecast. You should try it: How can a poll of only 1,004 Americans represent 260 million people with only a 3 percent margin of error?

"The margin of error depends inversely on the square root of the sample size. That is, a sample of 250 will give you a 6 percent margin of error and a sample size of 100 will give you a 10 percent margin of error. A 10 percent margin of error is not so useful. It would give you vague claims such as, "The proportion of Americans who support the death penalty is somewhere between 60 percent and 80 percent." Pollsters thus spend the money to get a reasonably large sample. In the other direction, by surveying 4,000 people, you can get the margin of error down to 1.5 percent. This sounds appealingly precise (for example, "The proportion is between 68.5 percent and 71.5 percent"), but it is generally a waste of time because public opinion varies enough from day to day that it is meaningless to attempt too precise an estimate. Indeed, to do so would be like getting on a scale in the morning and measuring your weight as 173.26 pounds."

You also ignore the cumulative accuracy of polls.

If polls show Dems lead by 5 percent one week and Republicans lead by 4 percent the next and there is no consistency, you have little confidence in the results.

However, if week after week, poll after poll show the same results, you have confidence in the accuracy of the results

/-----/ You mean like Rasmussen who is the only polling company that still conducts weekly polls, using the same methodology? You mean like that?

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Weekâs Key Polls

In surveys last week, this is what America told Rasmussen Reports...

www.rasmussenreports.com

In surveys last week, this is what America told Rasmussen Reports:

- President Trump ended the polling week with a daily job approval of 49%.

Rasmussen has his approval at 45% today. There is no way it is mov9ing up and down they way Rasmussen suggests it is.

 

[busybee01]

/—-/ we’re discussing worthless polls of a few hundred random adults. My post was an example. If Trump was really in trouble, you clowns would be running polls of likely voters to prove it.

No, guy. The polls are right most of the time. The problem is that if ALL the polls are showing Trump in trouble, he's probably in trouble.

That and 40 million jobs lost, 150,000 dead, riots in the street, him saying crazy shit on Twitter.

/—-/ Yeah, as the democRATs mayors and Governors work night and day to reopen their states. Bwhahahaha Bwhahahaha

The trick is to do it safely. That is something Republicans are not doing.

 

[busybee01]

Geeesh-


Nature of the Sample: NBC News/Marist Poll of 1,067 North Carolina Adults
This survey of 1,067 adults was conducted July 14th through July 22nd, 2020 by The Marist Poll sponsored in partnership with NBC News. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the state were contacted on landline or mobile numbers and interviewed by telephone using live interviewers. Survey questions were available in English or Spanish. Mobile telephone numbers were randomly selected based upon a list of telephone exchanges from throughout the state from Dynata. The exchanges were selected to ensure that each region was represented in proportion to its population. Mobile phones are treated as individual devices. After validation of age, personal ownership, and non-business- use of the mobile phone, interviews are typically conducted with the person answering the phone. To increase coverage, this mobile sample was supplemented by respondents reached through random dialing of landline phone numbers. Within each landline household, a single respondent is selected through a random selection process to increase the representativeness of traditionally under-covered survey populations. The samples were then combined and balanced to reflect the 2017 American Community Survey 5-year estimates for age, gender, income, race, and region. Results are statistically significant within ±3.7 percentage points. There are 882 registered voters. The results for this subset are statistically significant within ±4.0 percentage points. Tables include results for subgroups with a minimum sample size of 100 unweighted completed interviews as to only display crosstabs with an acceptable sampling error. It should be noted that although you may not see results listed for a certain group, it does not mean interviews were not completed with those individuals. It simply means the sample size is too small to report. The error margin was adjusted for sample weights and increases for cross-tabulations.
NBC News/Marist Poll North Carolina Annotated Questionnaire

First of all the sample size is too small to be statistically significant. A true empirical data collection will be nothing less than 5% of the total represented population. Even with that rule there are different formulae for population averages versus sample averages.

The confidence factor rises about one percentage point for every three to five percentage points the sample size rises and conversely decreases by about one percentage point for every point below the five percent. This is statistical data 101 taught on almost every college campus in the country. Nothing anyone pays attention anymore they just run off and do the wrong thing and then run to the news with the results. Additionally I noticed the complete absence of sampling questions. Any true empirical data selection process will always display the method by which the final tally was arrived at. Leading questions or questions that offer numerous versions of mutually exclusive responses immediately crash all the percentage markers used by true empirical data collection.

For instance a simple question to a selected householder could be:

Do you intend to vote for President Donald Trump in November?

However more often than not the question is worded Thusly:

In view of his terrible leadership and the fact that he has demonstrated time and again a complete lack of regard for women will you find it feasible and moral to vote for Donald Trump in November or are you going to vote for his opponent Joe Biden who has shown true leadership and has 40 plus years as an American politician?

I rest my case.

Jo

The sample size is significant enough. In the 2018 generic ballot question, the polls that came within 2 points of getting it right ranged from a sample size of 737 to 1835. The Washington Post's samnple size was 737 yet they came within 0.4% of getting it exactly right. The poll that had the largest number of Participants was Rasmussen at 2500. Yet they missed by 9.4% points.

 

[Cellblock2429]

/—-/ we’re discussing worthless polls of a few hundred random adults. My post was an example. If Trump was really in trouble, you clowns would be running polls of likely voters to prove it.

No, guy. The polls are right most of the time. The problem is that if ALL the polls are showing Trump in trouble, he's probably in trouble.

That and 40 million jobs lost, 150,000 dead, riots in the street, him saying crazy shit on Twitter.

/—-/ Yeah, as the democRATs mayors and Governors work night and day to reopen their states. Bwhahahaha Bwhahahaha

The trick is to do it safely. That is something Republicans are not doing.

/—-/ The only trick for the democRATs is to smother the economy until Election Day in hope Dementia Joe loses by a smaller landslide.

 

[rightwinger]

The only trick for the democRATs is to smother the economy until Election Day in hope Dementia Joe loses by a smaller landslide.

As much as they hope, the RepubliKlan Party is not in charge. In Red State after Red State, the TRUMPvirus is showing them who who is the boss

 

[bendog]

The only trick for the democRATs is to smother the economy until Election Day in hope Dementia Joe loses by a smaller landslide.

As much as they hope, the RepubliKlan Party is not in charge. In Red State after Red State, the TRUMPvirus is showing them who who is the boss

And Thiel is putting 850million into Kobach in Kan. Which could actually put another Sen seat in play for the dims. It's amazing. Trump is turning radioactive.

 

[Cellblock2429]

The only trick for the democRATs is to smother the economy until Election Day in hope Dementia Joe loses by a smaller landslide.

As much as they hope, the RepubliKlan Party is not in charge. In Red State after Red State, the TRUMPvirus is showing them who who is the boss

And Thiel is putting 850million into Kobach in Kan. Which could actually put another Sen seat in play for the dims. It's amazing. Trump is turning radioactive.

/——/,From another poll of 800 random adults? Bwhahahaha Bwhahahaha

 

[rightwinger]

The only trick for the democRATs is to smother the economy until Election Day in hope Dementia Joe loses by a smaller landslide.

As much as they hope, the RepubliKlan Party is not in charge. In Red State after Red State, the TRUMPvirus is showing them who who is the boss

And Thiel is putting 850million into Kobach in Kan. Which could actually put another Sen seat in play for the dims. It's amazing. Trump is turning radioactive.

/——/,From another poll of 800 random adults? Bwhahahaha Bwhahahaha

Another Conservative failing at Statistical Sampling Theory

 

[bendog]

The only trick for the democRATs is to smother the economy until Election Day in hope Dementia Joe loses by a smaller landslide.

As much as they hope, the RepubliKlan Party is not in charge. In Red State after Red State, the TRUMPvirus is showing them who who is the boss

And Thiel is putting 850million into Kobach in Kan. Which could actually put another Sen seat in play for the dims. It's amazing. Trump is turning radioactive.

/——/,From another poll of 800 random adults? Bwhahahaha Bwhahahaha

Another Conservative failing at Statistical Sampling Theory

He's failing at google, once again. LOL

I thought the Kan GoP dodged one, but the GOP may need to match Theil's funding. Nothing like having to sink several million into a senate seat they theoretically can't lose.

Republicans race to head off Kansas Senate nightmare

The GOP’s top Senate super PAC waded into the primary, one week after a group with Democratic links began a multimillion-dollar meddling effort to boost Kris Kobach’s candidacy.

www.politico.com

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

A nine point lead is huge.
Taking the NC seat would help swing the Senate to Dems

I think they'll win it with probably a one seat majority.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

I thought the Kan GoP dodged one, but the GOP may need to match Theil's funding. Nothing like having to sink several million into a senate seat they theoretically can't lose.

Republicans race to head off Kansas Senate nightmare

The GOP’s top Senate super PAC waded into the primary, one week after a group with Democratic links began a multimillion-dollar meddling effort to boost Kris Kobach’s candidacy.

www.politico.com

The Republicans aren't going to lose Kansas

 

[bendog]

I thought the Kan GoP dodged one, but the GOP may need to match Theil's funding. Nothing like having to sink several million into a senate seat they theoretically can't lose.

Republicans race to head off Kansas Senate nightmare

The GOP’s top Senate super PAC waded into the primary, one week after a group with Democratic links began a multimillion-dollar meddling effort to boost Kris Kobach’s candidacy.

www.politico.com

The Republicans aren't going to lose Kansas

Most likely not, but the question is what they have to spend

 

[Cellblock2429]

The only trick for the democRATs is to smother the economy until Election Day in hope Dementia Joe loses by a smaller landslide.

As much as they hope, the RepubliKlan Party is not in charge. In Red State after Red State, the TRUMPvirus is showing them who who is the boss

And Thiel is putting 850million into Kobach in Kan. Which could actually put another Sen seat in play for the dims. It's amazing. Trump is turning radioactive.

/——/,From another poll of 800 random adults? Bwhahahaha Bwhahahaha

Another Conservative failing at Statistical Sampling Theory

/——/ It was dumbed down and explained to you libtards yesterday. Sorry you missed it, so go bang your drum over fake polls.

 

[Crixus]

Almost always siding with the wishes of toxic President Donald "Mr. Make Matters Worse" sure isn't helping Tillis:

New NBC/Marist poll offers more encouraging news for Biden and Cunningham • NC Newsline

2020 election; NBC News/Marist poll shows Joe Biden and Cal Cunningham running well-ahead of Donald Trump and Thom Tillis

pulse.ncpolicywatch.org

A nine point lead is huge.
Taking the NC seat would help swing the Senate to Dems

Wasn't Trump being Hillary by like 12 points I in every poll right up into election night?

 

[Cellblock2429]

Almost always siding with the wishes of toxic President Donald "Mr. Make Matters Worse" Trump sure isn't helping Tillis:

New NBC/Marist poll offers more encouraging news for Biden and Cunningham • NC Newsline

2020 election; NBC News/Marist poll shows Joe Biden and Cal Cunningham running well-ahead of Donald Trump and Thom Tillis

pulse.ncpolicywatch.org

/——/ Another fake poll of 818. From your link after a lot of digging:
In the Presidential race Joe Biden leads Donald Trump 50-46, up from a 48-46 spread a couple weeks ago. So they found 407 who hate Trump and they had to over sample democRATs.

PPP interviewed 818 North Carolina voters on July 7th and 8th. The margin of error is +/-3.4%. Full results here:
If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, press 2. If an independent, press 3.
Democrat ........................................................ 38%
Republican ...................................................... 32%
Independent .................................................... 30%
Q8 If you are white, press 1.
If African-American,
press 2. If White............73%
African-American ............................................ 21%
Other..........................................6%

What looks fake?

/——/ Only 818 sampled out of 7,000,000 NC voters is .00011%, a meaningless sample, plus an over sampling of democRATs. It was a poll to create a news story and help Dem democRATs raise money. Show me a poll of 1,500 likely voters with those results, then I’ll worry. What confuses you?

Why do Conservatives struggle so much with Statistical Sampling Theory? I realize it is more advanced mathematics than the arithmetic Conservatives are limited to, but it is not really that hard.

Each poll has a margin of error based on the sample size. That margin will show the range the poll falls in.

Polls are conducted randomly. A poll structured to give you 50 percent Dems and 50 percent RepubliKlans will give you a 50/50 result. It is the Independents who will swing the election

/----/ Uhhh, three groups were sampled Repubs, Dims, and Indies. That makes it 33% each not 50/50.
I used to buy into these polls. Then I started studying the methodology closely and learned a great deal. A poll is a snapshot, not a forecast. You should try it: How can a poll of only 1,004 Americans represent 260 million people with only a 3 percent margin of error?

"The margin of error depends inversely on the square root of the sample size. That is, a sample of 250 will give you a 6 percent margin of error and a sample size of 100 will give you a 10 percent margin of error. A 10 percent margin of error is not so useful. It would give you vague claims such as, "The proportion of Americans who support the death penalty is somewhere between 60 percent and 80 percent." Pollsters thus spend the money to get a reasonably large sample. In the other direction, by surveying 4,000 people, you can get the margin of error down to 1.5 percent. This sounds appealingly precise (for example, "The proportion is between 68.5 percent and 71.5 percent"), but it is generally a waste of time because public opinion varies enough from day to day that it is meaningless to attempt too precise an estimate. Indeed, to do so would be like getting on a scale in the morning and measuring your weight as 173.26 pounds."

You also ignore the cumulative accuracy of polls.

If polls show Dems lead by 5 percent one week and Republicans lead by 4 percent the next and there is no consistency, you have little confidence in the results.

However, if week after week, poll after poll show the same results, you have confidence in the accuracy of the results

/-----/ You mean like Rasmussen who is the only polling company that still conducts weekly polls, using the same methodology? You mean like that?

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Weekâs Key Polls

In surveys last week, this is what America told Rasmussen Reports...

www.rasmussenreports.com

In surveys last week, this is what America told Rasmussen Reports:

- President Trump ended the polling week with a daily job approval of 49%.

Rasmussen has his approval at 45% today. There is no way it is mov9ing up and down they way Rasmussen suggests it is.

/——/ Rasmussen should switch to polls of 350 random adults and over sample democRATs so you’ll accept them.

 

[whitehall]

Notice that very few democrats have the balls or the intelligence to tell us how great their candidate is? Just ask NBC.

 

[rightwinger]

Almost always siding with the wishes of toxic President Donald "Mr. Make Matters Worse" sure isn't helping Tillis:

New NBC/Marist poll offers more encouraging news for Biden and Cunningham • NC Newsline

2020 election; NBC News/Marist poll shows Joe Biden and Cal Cunningham running well-ahead of Donald Trump and Thom Tillis

pulse.ncpolicywatch.org

A nine point lead is huge.
Taking the NC seat would help swing the Senate to Dems

Wasn't Trump being Hillary by like 12 points I in every poll right up into election night?

No
Comey took care of that

 

[Crixus]

Almost always siding with the wishes of toxic President Donald "Mr. Make Matters Worse" sure isn't helping Tillis:

New NBC/Marist poll offers more encouraging news for Biden and Cunningham • NC Newsline

2020 election; NBC News/Marist poll shows Joe Biden and Cal Cunningham running well-ahead of Donald Trump and Thom Tillis

pulse.ncpolicywatch.org

A nine point lead is huge.
Taking the NC seat would help swing the Senate to Dems

Wasn't Trump being Hillary by like 12 points I in every poll right up into election night?

No
Comey took care of that

Whoops, I meant 12 points behind. Sorry. Meh, don't trust the polls. It will only make you mad.

 

[Bootney Lee Farnsworth]

Almost always siding with the wishes of toxic President Donald "Mr. Make Matters Worse" Trump sure isn't helping Tillis:

New NBC/Marist poll offers more encouraging news for Biden and Cunningham • NC Newsline

2020 election; NBC News/Marist poll shows Joe Biden and Cal Cunningham running well-ahead of Donald Trump and Thom Tillis

pulse.ncpolicywatch.org

I don't know if that is bad news for Tillis, but this in July:

It would appear that both Biden and Cunningham are increasing their leads. Just under three weeks ago, Raleigh-based Public Policy Polling found Biden ahead of Trump in North Carolina 50-46 and Cunningham up 47-39.

That screams Trump will take NC by at least 4 points.

 

[basquebromance]

I think it would be a pretty stunning upset if Senator Tillis lost