Looks like Thom Tillis (R-NC) will be a one-term Senator

[Rambunctious]

"Looks like"....

 

[JoeB131]

New York Democrats Could Eliminate Ocasio-Cortez's District After 2020

After the census, New York state is expected to lose a congressional district. But powerful Democrats have an incentive to keep Ocasio-Cortez in her seat.

theintercept.com

[/QUOTE]

Okay, a couple of problems with that statement.

First, it depends on the Census.

Secondly, it assumes that she couldn't run in any of the newly formed districts and still win.

Third, even if both were true, her term wouldn't end until 2023. (She's considered pretty much a shoe-in this year). Tillis is going down this year, so they won't 'Share a ride" as you say.

 

[JoeB131]

You've seen it, we've all seen it. Quit playing stupid... if... you're playing.

Okay, she didn't portray it as what you said she said. She just noted that AOC and her Own districts are safe districts.

 

[Auld Phart]

New York Democrats Could Eliminate Ocasio-Cortez's District After 2020

After the census, New York state is expected to lose a congressional district. But powerful Democrats have an incentive to keep Ocasio-Cortez in her seat.

theintercept.com

Okay, a couple of problems with that statement.

First, it depends on the Census.

Secondly, it assumes that she couldn't run in any of the newly formed districts and still win.

Third, even if both were true, her term wouldn't end until 2023. (She's considered pretty much a shoe-in this year). Tillis is going down this year, so they won't 'Share a ride" as you say.
[/QUOTE]

Third, even if both were true, her term wouldn't end until 2023.

So, there would possibly be two Reps for the same district?

 

[22lcidw]

Maybe he can share a cab to the airport with AOC.

AOC isn't going anywhere. You're stuck with her for a while.

We see that greatness in her. In a Central or South American way.

 

[JoeB131]

So, there would possibly be two Reps for the same district?

Very possibly. We had a similar situation in IL in 1992, when Marty Russo and Bill Lipinski were both dumped into the same district. They had to run against each other, Lipinski one because the Machine liked him better. He and his son continued to hold that seat until this year.

 

[Cellblock2429]

Almost always siding with the wishes of toxic President Donald "Mr. Make Matters Worse" sure isn't helping Tillis:

New NBC/Marist poll offers more encouraging news for Biden and Cunningham • NC Newsline

2020 election; NBC News/Marist poll shows Joe Biden and Cal Cunningham running well-ahead of Donald Trump and Thom Tillis

pulse.ncpolicywatch.org

A nine point lead is huge.
Taking the NC seat would help swing the Senate to Dems

The Tremendous Jesse A Helms was behind in the polls every time he ran in NC as well.

And he came back to schlong his leftist opponent every time as well.

Sen. Tillis should ask himself WWJD? What would Jesse Do?

Trump supporters do not talk to pollsters for one thing.... And it would appear that the poles have become even more twisted and warped than were in 2016... If Tillis does win it will be the beginning of the end for polls not for politicians.

Jo

Speaking of twisted polls.

Uhhh, three groups were sampled Repubs, Dims, and Indies. That makes it 33% each not 50/50.

Only if you assume the population is evenly distributed among the three. It is not

/----/ I don't assume, I ask. Now look at the bottom line and you decided the breakdown of registration by Party, because you reject anything I post: Voter Registration Statistics

I have pointed out time and again that nine out of ten polling agencies in the United States do not use empirical data or the empirical data system. The few that do consistently have Trump a few points ahead.

Jo

You made that up.

Nope....
Among the many types of math that I have spent time with academically statistics is one of them. If you're too lazy to research empirical data just admit it.... Don't run around claiming things you that have no idea about.

Don't get used to this you lazy prick but in this one instance it's useful to me to quote you directly from a college text on sampling size and statistical data:

A good maximum sample size is usually 10% as long as it does not exceed 1000. A good maximum sample size is usually around 10% of the population, as long as this does not exceed 1000. For example, in a population of 5000, 10% would be 500. In a population of 200,000, 10% would be 20,000.

By this standard the poll you're referring to is a complete joke taken only to serve one politically-motivated purpose, certainly not to collect accurate information.

Jo

/——/ Thank you, I’ve tried explaining this to libtards for decades, ever since polling of 350 random adults had Gov Dukakis beating Reagan in a landslide.

 

[Cellblock2429]

Maybe he can share a cab to the airport with AOC.

AOC isn't going anywhere. You're stuck with her for a while.

We see that greatness in her. In a Central or South American way.

/——/ Don’t cry for me Argentina.....

 

[Cellblock2429]

Geeesh-


Nature of the Sample: NBC News/Marist Poll of 1,067 North Carolina Adults
This survey of 1,067 adults was conducted July 14th through July 22nd, 2020 by The Marist Poll sponsored in partnership with NBC News. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the state were contacted on landline or mobile numbers and interviewed by telephone using live interviewers. Survey questions were available in English or Spanish. Mobile telephone numbers were randomly selected based upon a list of telephone exchanges from throughout the state from Dynata. The exchanges were selected to ensure that each region was represented in proportion to its population. Mobile phones are treated as individual devices. After validation of age, personal ownership, and non-business- use of the mobile phone, interviews are typically conducted with the person answering the phone. To increase coverage, this mobile sample was supplemented by respondents reached through random dialing of landline phone numbers. Within each landline household, a single respondent is selected through a random selection process to increase the representativeness of traditionally under-covered survey populations. The samples were then combined and balanced to reflect the 2017 American Community Survey 5-year estimates for age, gender, income, race, and region. Results are statistically significant within ±3.7 percentage points. There are 882 registered voters. The results for this subset are statistically significant within ±4.0 percentage points. Tables include results for subgroups with a minimum sample size of 100 unweighted completed interviews as to only display crosstabs with an acceptable sampling error. It should be noted that although you may not see results listed for a certain group, it does not mean interviews were not completed with those individuals. It simply means the sample size is too small to report. The error margin was adjusted for sample weights and increases for cross-tabulations.
NBC News/Marist Poll North Carolina Annotated Questionnaire

/—-/ Note how they game the results by mixing random adults in with registered voters? If you aren’t registered because you never vote, or can’t vote for any number of reasons, your opinion is meaningless. They most accurate is polls of likely voters.

 

[JoeB131]

/——/ Thank you, I’ve tried explaining this to libtards for decades, ever since polling of 350 random adults had Gov Dukakis beating Reagan in a landslide.

Wow. Dukakis ran against Reagan. Really?

Now, obviously knowing you are talking about Dukakis vs. Bush, where Dukakis had a Post convention bounce that didn't last until the GOP convention (when Bush took the lead again). Those kinds of bounces don't really exist anymore.

Bush's advantage was that he was running on an awesome economy (or so it seemed) and Dukakis really didn't reflect where people were at the time.

Trump is running on a shitty economy, and he's personally very unpopular and has been throughout his presidency.

 

[Polishprince]

/——/ Thank you, I’ve tried explaining this to libtards for decades, ever since polling of 350 random adults had Gov Dukakis beating Reagan in a landslide.

Wow. Dukakis ran against Reagan. Really?

Now, obviously knowing you are talking about Dukakis vs. Bush, where Dukakis had a Post convention bounce that didn't last until the GOP convention (when Bush took the lead again). Those kinds of bounces don't really exist anymore.

Bush's advantage was that he was running on an awesome economy (or so it seemed) and Dukakis really didn't reflect where people were at the time.

Trump is running on a shitty economy, and he's personally very unpopular and has been throughout his presidency.

Dukakis was a pretty weak link. He would have lost anyhow, but his promotion of Revolving Door Prisons and furlough for life prisoners like civil rights supporter Willie Horton were really the nails in his electoral coffin.

 

[JoeB131]

Dukakis was a pretty weak link. He would have lost anyhow, but his promotion of Revolving Door Prisons and furlough for life prisoners like civil rights supporter Willie Horton were really the nails in his electoral coffin.

Actually, the furloughs were established by his Republican predecessor. The problem was that the law was worded badly so instead of being there to help guys who were going to be released slowly reassimilate back into society, people who were never going to get released could get furloughs as well.

Dukakis did a terrible job of answering Bush's slanders... but the point was, if the economy had been shit, it wouldn't have mattered.

 

[Cellblock2429]

/——/ Thank you, I’ve tried explaining this to libtards for decades, ever since polling of 350 random adults had Gov Dukakis beating Reagan in a landslide.

Wow. Dukakis ran against Reagan. Really?

Now, obviously knowing you are talking about Dukakis vs. Bush, where Dukakis had a Post convention bounce that didn't last until the GOP convention (when Bush took the lead again). Those kinds of bounces don't really exist anymore.

Bush's advantage was that he was running on an awesome economy (or so it seemed) and Dukakis really didn't reflect where people were at the time.

Trump is running on a shitty economy, and he's personally very unpopular and has been throughout his presidency.

/——/ Yes, Reagan ran against Mondull not Dukakis. Sorry about that.

 

[JoeB131]

/——/ Yes, Reagan ran against Mondull not Dukakis. Sorry about that.

As well you should be...

Point is, you are trying to grasp for straws to find a scenario where Trump isn't really in deep shit.

 

[Cellblock2429]

/——/ Yes, Reagan ran against Mondull not Dukakis. Sorry about that.

As well you should be...

Point is, you are trying to grasp for straws to find a scenario where Trump isn't really in deep shit.

/—-/ we’re discussing worthless polls of a few hundred random adults. My post was an example. If Trump was really in trouble, you clowns would be running polls of likely voters to prove it.

 

[Cellblock2429]

Almost always siding with the wishes of toxic President Donald "Mr. Make Matters Worse" Trump sure isn't helping Tillis:

New NBC/Marist poll offers more encouraging news for Biden and Cunningham • NC Newsline

2020 election; NBC News/Marist poll shows Joe Biden and Cal Cunningham running well-ahead of Donald Trump and Thom Tillis

pulse.ncpolicywatch.org

Looks like aye? You mean like it looked like Hitlery was going to win in 2016, looks like that?

Dumb fuck.

The only thing TOXIC in America is DEMOCRATS, and the vast, VAST majority of Americans are learning that more every day.

It also looked like Obama was going to win in 2008 and 2012 and.....he did!

/—-/ Obozo had help from the GOP who ran two RINOs.

 

[bendog]

wELL it's not like he doctored up a picture of his Jewish opponent to enlarge his nose and put schumer in the pic. And at least we know that Senator Purdew will not use the intelligence briefing he gets on corvid to make money.

 

[JoeB131]

/—-/ we’re discussing worthless polls of a few hundred random adults. My post was an example. If Trump was really in trouble, you clowns would be running polls of likely voters to prove it.

No, guy. The polls are right most of the time. The problem is that if ALL the polls are showing Trump in trouble, he's probably in trouble.

That and 40 million jobs lost, 150,000 dead, riots in the street, him saying crazy shit on Twitter.

 

[Cellblock2429]

/—-/ we’re discussing worthless polls of a few hundred random adults. My post was an example. If Trump was really in trouble, you clowns would be running polls of likely voters to prove it.

No, guy. The polls are right most of the time. The problem is that if ALL the polls are showing Trump in trouble, he's probably in trouble.

That and 40 million jobs lost, 150,000 dead, riots in the street, him saying crazy shit on Twitter.

/—-/ Yeah, as the democRATs mayors and Governors work night and day to reopen their states. Bwhahahaha Bwhahahaha

 

[JoeB131]

/—-/ Yeah, as the democRATs mayors and Governors work night and day to reopen their states. Bwhahahaha Bwhahahaha

Okay, really doesn't matter. It's the Red States that are taking it in the ass right now... which is why Trump will probably lose Texas, Florida, Georgia, Arizona...

Too bad, so sad.