Looks like Thom Tillis (R-NC) will be a one-term Senator

[justoffal]

Almost always siding with the wishes of toxic President Donald "Mr. Make Matters Worse" sure isn't helping Tillis:

New NBC/Marist poll offers more encouraging news for Biden and Cunningham • NC Newsline

2020 election; NBC News/Marist poll shows Joe Biden and Cal Cunningham running well-ahead of Donald Trump and Thom Tillis

pulse.ncpolicywatch.org

A nine point lead is huge.
Taking the NC seat would help swing the Senate to Dems

The Tremendous Jesse A Helms was behind in the polls every time he ran in NC as well.

And he came back to schlong his leftist opponent every time as well.

Sen. Tillis should ask himself WWJD? What would Jesse Do?

Trump supporters do not talk to pollsters for one thing.... And it would appear that the polls have become even more twisted and warped than were in 2016... If Tillis does win it will be the beginning of the end for polls not for politicians.

Jo

 

[justoffal]

Uhhh, three groups were sampled Repubs, Dims, and Indies. That makes it 33% each not 50/50.

Only if you assume the population is evenly distributed among the three. It is not

/----/ I don't assume, I ask. Now look at the bottom line and you decided the breakdown of registration by Party, because you reject anything I post: Voter Registration Statistics

I have pointed out time and again that nine out of ten polling agencies in the United States do not use empirical data or the empirical data system. The few that do consistently have Trump a few points ahead.

Jo

 

[depotoo]

Geeesh-


Nature of the Sample: NBC News/Marist Poll of 1,067 North Carolina Adults
This survey of 1,067 adults was conducted July 14th through July 22nd, 2020 by The Marist Poll sponsored in partnership with NBC News. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the state were contacted on landline or mobile numbers and interviewed by telephone using live interviewers. Survey questions were available in English or Spanish. Mobile telephone numbers were randomly selected based upon a list of telephone exchanges from throughout the state from Dynata. The exchanges were selected to ensure that each region was represented in proportion to its population. Mobile phones are treated as individual devices. After validation of age, personal ownership, and non-business- use of the mobile phone, interviews are typically conducted with the person answering the phone. To increase coverage, this mobile sample was supplemented by respondents reached through random dialing of landline phone numbers. Within each landline household, a single respondent is selected through a random selection process to increase the representativeness of traditionally under-covered survey populations. The samples were then combined and balanced to reflect the 2017 American Community Survey 5-year estimates for age, gender, income, race, and region. Results are statistically significant within ±3.7 percentage points. There are 882 registered voters. The results for this subset are statistically significant within ±4.0 percentage points. Tables include results for subgroups with a minimum sample size of 100 unweighted completed interviews as to only display crosstabs with an acceptable sampling error. It should be noted that although you may not see results listed for a certain group, it does not mean interviews were not completed with those individuals. It simply means the sample size is too small to report. The error margin was adjusted for sample weights and increases for cross-tabulations.
NBC News/Marist Poll North Carolina Annotated Questionnaire

 

[justoffal]

Geeesh-


Nature of the Sample: NBC News/Marist Poll of 1,067 North Carolina Adults
This survey of 1,067 adults was conducted July 14th through July 22nd, 2020 by The Marist Poll sponsored in partnership with NBC News. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the state were contacted on landline or mobile numbers and interviewed by telephone using live interviewers. Survey questions were available in English or Spanish. Mobile telephone numbers were randomly selected based upon a list of telephone exchanges from throughout the state from Dynata. The exchanges were selected to ensure that each region was represented in proportion to its population. Mobile phones are treated as individual devices. After validation of age, personal ownership, and non-business- use of the mobile phone, interviews are typically conducted with the person answering the phone. To increase coverage, this mobile sample was supplemented by respondents reached through random dialing of landline phone numbers. Within each landline household, a single respondent is selected through a random selection process to increase the representativeness of traditionally under-covered survey populations. The samples were then combined and balanced to reflect the 2017 American Community Survey 5-year estimates for age, gender, income, race, and region. Results are statistically significant within ±3.7 percentage points. There are 882 registered voters. The results for this subset are statistically significant within ±4.0 percentage points. Tables include results for subgroups with a minimum sample size of 100 unweighted completed interviews as to only display crosstabs with an acceptable sampling error. It should be noted that although you may not see results listed for a certain group, it does not mean interviews were not completed with those individuals. It simply means the sample size is too small to report. The error margin was adjusted for sample weights and increases for cross-tabulations.
NBC News/Marist Poll North Carolina Annotated Questionnaire

First of all the sample size is too small to be statistically significant. A true empirical data collection will be nothing less than 5% of the total represented population. Even with that rule there are different formulae for population averages versus sample averages.

The confidence factor rises about one percentage point for every three to five percentage points the sample size rises and conversely decreases by about one percentage point for every point below the five percent. This is statistical data 101 taught on almost every college campus in the country. Nothing anyone pays attention anymore they just run off and do the wrong thing and then run to the news with the results. Additionally I noticed the complete absence of sampling questions. Any true empirical data selection process will always display the method by which the final tally was arrived at. Leading questions or questions that offer numerous versions of mutually exclusive responses immediately crash all the percentage markers used by true empirical data collection.

For instance a simple question to a selected householder could be:

Do you intend to vote for President Donald Trump in November?

However more often than not the question is worded Thusly:

In view of his terrible leadership and the fact that he has demonstrated time and again a complete lack of regard for women will you find it feasible and moral to vote for Donald Trump in November or are you going to vote for his opponent Joe Biden who has shown true leadership and has 40 plus years as an American politician?

I rest my case.

Jo

 

[depotoo]

Geeesh-


Nature of the Sample: NBC News/Marist Poll of 1,067 North Carolina Adults
This survey of 1,067 adults was conducted July 14th through July 22nd, 2020 by The Marist Poll sponsored in partnership with NBC News. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the state were contacted on landline or mobile numbers and interviewed by telephone using live interviewers. Survey questions were available in English or Spanish. Mobile telephone numbers were randomly selected based upon a list of telephone exchanges from throughout the state from Dynata. The exchanges were selected to ensure that each region was represented in proportion to its population. Mobile phones are treated as individual devices. After validation of age, personal ownership, and non-business- use of the mobile phone, interviews are typically conducted with the person answering the phone. To increase coverage, this mobile sample was supplemented by respondents reached through random dialing of landline phone numbers. Within each landline household, a single respondent is selected through a random selection process to increase the representativeness of traditionally under-covered survey populations. The samples were then combined and balanced to reflect the 2017 American Community Survey 5-year estimates for age, gender, income, race, and region. Results are statistically significant within ±3.7 percentage points. There are 882 registered voters. The results for this subset are statistically significant within ±4.0 percentage points. Tables include results for subgroups with a minimum sample size of 100 unweighted completed interviews as to only display crosstabs with an acceptable sampling error. It should be noted that although you may not see results listed for a certain group, it does not mean interviews were not completed with those individuals. It simply means the sample size is too small to report. The error margin was adjusted for sample weights and increases for cross-tabulations.
NBC News/Marist Poll North Carolina Annotated Questionnaire

First of all the sample size is too small to be statistically significant. A true empirical data collection will be nothing less than 5% of the total represented population. Even with that rule there are different formularies for population averages versus sample averages.
The confidence factor rises about one percentage point for every three to five percentage points the sample size rises and conversely decreases by about one percentage point for every point below the five percent. This is statistical data 101 taught on almost every college campus in the country. Nothing anyone pays attention anymore they just run off and do the wrong thing and then run to the news with the results. Additionally I noticed the complete absence of sampling questions. any true empirical data selection process will always display the method by which thefinal tally was arrived at. Leading questions or questions that offer numerous versions of mutually exclusive responses immediately crash all the percentage markers used by true empirical data collection.

For instance a simple question to a selected households I could be to you in time to vote for President Donald Trump in November?

However more often than not the question is worded Thusly:

in view of this terrible leadership and the fact that he has demonstrated time and again a complete lack of regard for women will you find it feasible and moral to vote for Donald Trump and November or were you going to his opponent Joe Biden who was shown true leadership and has 40 plus yesrs as an American politician?

I rest my case.

Jo

The manipulation in the polls, all of them, has become ludicrous. It is more evidence they will do what ever it takes to come up with the answers they want

 

[bodecea]

Almost always siding with the wishes of toxic President Donald "Mr. Make Matters Worse" sure isn't helping Tillis:

New NBC/Marist poll offers more encouraging news for Biden and Cunningham • NC Newsline

2020 election; NBC News/Marist poll shows Joe Biden and Cal Cunningham running well-ahead of Donald Trump and Thom Tillis

pulse.ncpolicywatch.org

A nine point lead is huge.
Taking the NC seat would help swing the Senate to Dems

The Tremendous Jesse A Helms was behind in the polls every time he ran in NC as well.

And he came back to schlong his leftist opponent every time as well.

Sen. Tillis should ask himself WWJD? What would Jesse Do?

"the tremendous Jesse A Helms".....as is tremendously fat......

 

[rightwinger]

The manipulation in the polls, all of them, has become ludicrous.

Quite an endeavor
Manipulate all polls, week after week
Both Conservative, Liberal and Mainstream polls

Is there a magic button that does that or an App on your phone?

 

[justoffal]

Geeesh-


Nature of the Sample: NBC News/Marist Poll of 1,067 North Carolina Adults
This survey of 1,067 adults was conducted July 14th through July 22nd, 2020 by The Marist Poll sponsored in partnership with NBC News. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the state were contacted on landline or mobile numbers and interviewed by telephone using live interviewers. Survey questions were available in English or Spanish. Mobile telephone numbers were randomly selected based upon a list of telephone exchanges from throughout the state from Dynata. The exchanges were selected to ensure that each region was represented in proportion to its population. Mobile phones are treated as individual devices. After validation of age, personal ownership, and non-business- use of the mobile phone, interviews are typically conducted with the person answering the phone. To increase coverage, this mobile sample was supplemented by respondents reached through random dialing of landline phone numbers. Within each landline household, a single respondent is selected through a random selection process to increase the representativeness of traditionally under-covered survey populations. The samples were then combined and balanced to reflect the 2017 American Community Survey 5-year estimates for age, gender, income, race, and region. Results are statistically significant within ±3.7 percentage points. There are 882 registered voters. The results for this subset are statistically significant within ±4.0 percentage points. Tables include results for subgroups with a minimum sample size of 100 unweighted completed interviews as to only display crosstabs with an acceptable sampling error. It should be noted that although you may not see results listed for a certain group, it does not mean interviews were not completed with those individuals. It simply means the sample size is too small to report. The error margin was adjusted for sample weights and increases for cross-tabulations.
NBC News/Marist Poll North Carolina Annotated Questionnaire

First of all the sample size is too small to be statistically significant. A true empirical data collection will be nothing less than 5% of the total represented population. Even with that rule there are different formularies for population averages versus sample averages.
The confidence factor rises about one percentage point for every three to five percentage points the sample size rises and conversely decreases by about one percentage point for every point below the five percent. This is statistical data 101 taught on almost every college campus in the country. Nothing anyone pays attention anymore they just run off and do the wrong thing and then run to the news with the results. Additionally I noticed the complete absence of sampling questions. any true empirical data selection process will always display the method by which thefinal tally was arrived at. Leading questions or questions that offer numerous versions of mutually exclusive responses immediately crash all the percentage markers used by true empirical data collection.

For instance a simple question to a selected households I could be to you in time to vote for President Donald Trump in November?

However more often than not the question is worded Thusly:

in view of this terrible leadership and the fact that he has demonstrated time and again a complete lack of regard for women will you find it feasible and moral to vote for Donald Trump and November or were you going to his opponent Joe Biden who was shown true leadership and has 40 plus yesrs as an American politician?

I rest my case.

Jo

The manipulation in the polls, all of them, has become ludicrous. It is more evidence they will do what ever it takes to come up with the answers they want

Yes but they are losing the most important asset they have....public confidence. There is a reason why there are two major types of polling agencies.. Those that work for the news outlets and those that work exclusively for the internal numbers of campaigns. They often come up with different numbers these days.

JO

 

[Polishprince]

The manipulation in the polls, all of them, has become ludicrous.

Quite an endeavor
Manipulate all polls, week after week
Both Conservative, Liberal and Mainstream polls

Is there a magic button that does that or an App on your phone?

Its easy to manipulate polls. If you poll in Pennsylvania, if you make most of your calls to the Pittsburgh and Philadelphia ghettos, you will get a different result that if you concentrate in the Civilized portion of the commonwealth.

 

[Jitss617]

The opposite of Tom Tillis is skyrocketing crime for education broken families.. yea I say thom lol

 

[The VOR]

Maybe he can share a cab to the airport with AOC.

AOC isn't going anywhere. You're stuck with her for a while.

Nor is she from North Carolina. I'm still scratching my head about that comment.

The RWNJs aren't the sharpest pencils in the box.

 

[rightwinger]

North Carolina will be a key state

If NC turns on Trump, it could indicate a landslide with Ohio, Arizona, Texas, Georgia in play

 

[justoffal]

The manipulation in the polls, all of them, has become ludicrous.

Quite an endeavor
Manipulate all polls, week after week
Both Conservative, Liberal and Mainstream polls

Is there a magic button that does that or an App on your phone?

No....it's not really that much of an endeavor..... Both GOP and DNC are against Trump and demand affirmation from the polls they OWN....not dissent. Having said that this is their chance to redeem themselves after the beating they took in 2016. You guys keep forgetting that 2/3 of the nation is against Trump.....it's just that the two thirds hate each other almost as much as they hate Trump....if they could agree on something they would elect a candidate with 500+ electoral votes. But alas that is not to be.

JO

 

[rightwinger]

The manipulation in the polls, all of them, has become ludicrous.

Quite an endeavor
Manipulate all polls, week after week
Both Conservative, Liberal and Mainstream polls

Is there a magic button that does that or an App on your phone?

Its easy to manipulate polls. If you poll in Pennsylvania, if you make most of your calls to the Pittsburgh and Philadelphia ghettos, you will get a different result that if you concentrate in the Civilized portion of the commonwealth.

Nice try
But no polling agencies do that

 

[justoffal]

The manipulation in the polls, all of them, has become ludicrous.

Quite an endeavor
Manipulate all polls, week after week
Both Conservative, Liberal and Mainstream polls

Is there a magic button that does that or an App on your phone?

Its easy to manipulate polls. If you poll in Pennsylvania, if you make most of your calls to the Pittsburgh and Philadelphia ghettos, you will get a different result that if you concentrate in the Civilized portion of the commonwealth.

You do notice that they never post the use of Empirical data collection..... I have seen it occasionally but it requires a tremendous amount of work to make sure the rules are followed. Instead they come up with these long winded analyses that always leave out important details like..... Exactly what the wording of the question was or how they determined which family member they were talking to.....IMO half the time it's a fourteen year old kid who just happens to know his mom or dads driver's license number....lol.

JO

 

[rightwinger]

The manipulation in the polls, all of them, has become ludicrous.

Quite an endeavor
Manipulate all polls, week after week
Both Conservative, Liberal and Mainstream polls

Is there a magic button that does that or an App on your phone?

No....it's not really that much of an endeavor..... Both GOP and DNC are against Trump and demand affirmation from the polls they OWN....not dissent. Having said that this is their chance to redeem themselves after the beating they took in 2016. You guys keep forgetting that 2/3 of the nation is against Trump.....it's just that the two thirds hate each other almost as much as they hate Trump....if they could agree on something they would elect a candidate with 500+ electoral votes. But alas that is not to be.

JO

Even more telling is that up until this year, Trumps internal polling used to release their results showing how good they are doing. Now, they are silent.

When all polls are showing you are doing badly, maybe you need to accept you are doing badly ant try to fix it.

 

[justoffal]

The manipulation in the polls, all of them, has become ludicrous.

Quite an endeavor
Manipulate all polls, week after week
Both Conservative, Liberal and Mainstream polls

Is there a magic button that does that or an App on your phone?

No....it's not really that much of an endeavor..... Both GOP and DNC are against Trump and demand affirmation from the polls they OWN....not dissent. Having said that this is their chance to redeem themselves after the beating they took in 2016. You guys keep forgetting that 2/3 of the nation is against Trump.....it's just that the two thirds hate each other almost as much as they hate Trump....if they could agree on something they would elect a candidate with 500+ electoral votes. But alas that is not to be.

JO

Even more telling is that up until this year, Trumps internal polling used to release their results showing how good they are doing. Now, they are silent.

When all polls are showing you are doing badly, maybe you need to accept you are doing badly ant try to fix it.

Yes I have notice that also about the internal polls and it is significant.
ON this we agree. However the major polling companies have wandered far from their original mission.


JO

 

[rightwinger]

As to Thom Tillis, it may show how loyalty to Trump sits with the voters.

If there is an anti - Trump backlash, it can resonate down ballot

 

[pyetro]

Almost always siding with the wishes of toxic President Donald "Mr. Make Matters Worse" sure isn't helping Tillis:

New NBC/Marist poll offers more encouraging news for Biden and Cunningham • NC Newsline

2020 election; NBC News/Marist poll shows Joe Biden and Cal Cunningham running well-ahead of Donald Trump and Thom Tillis

pulse.ncpolicywatch.org

A nine point lead is huge.
Taking the NC seat would help swing the Senate to Dems

The Tremendous Jesse A Helms was behind in the polls every time he ran in NC as well.

And he came back to schlong his leftist opponent every time as well.

Sen. Tillis should ask himself WWJD? What would Jesse Do?

Trump supporters do not talk to pollsters for one thing.... And it would appear that the poles have become even more twisted and warped than were in 2016... If Tillis does win it will be the beginning of the end for polls not for politicians.

Jo

Speaking of twisted polls.

Uhhh, three groups were sampled Repubs, Dims, and Indies. That makes it 33% each not 50/50.

Only if you assume the population is evenly distributed among the three. It is not

/----/ I don't assume, I ask. Now look at the bottom line and you decided the breakdown of registration by Party, because you reject anything I post: Voter Registration Statistics

I have pointed out time and again that nine out of ten polling agencies in the United States do not use empirical data or the empirical data system. The few that do consistently have Trump a few points ahead.

Jo

You made that up.

 

[justoffal]

Almost always siding with the wishes of toxic President Donald "Mr. Make Matters Worse" sure isn't helping Tillis:

New NBC/Marist poll offers more encouraging news for Biden and Cunningham • NC Newsline

2020 election; NBC News/Marist poll shows Joe Biden and Cal Cunningham running well-ahead of Donald Trump and Thom Tillis

pulse.ncpolicywatch.org

A nine point lead is huge.
Taking the NC seat would help swing the Senate to Dems

The Tremendous Jesse A Helms was behind in the polls every time he ran in NC as well.

And he came back to schlong his leftist opponent every time as well.

Sen. Tillis should ask himself WWJD? What would Jesse Do?

Trump supporters do not talk to pollsters for one thing.... And it would appear that the poles have become even more twisted and warped than were in 2016... If Tillis does win it will be the beginning of the end for polls not for politicians.

Jo

Speaking of twisted polls.

Uhhh, three groups were sampled Repubs, Dims, and Indies. That makes it 33% each not 50/50.

Only if you assume the population is evenly distributed among the three. It is not

/----/ I don't assume, I ask. Now look at the bottom line and you decided the breakdown of registration by Party, because you reject anything I post: Voter Registration Statistics

I have pointed out time and again that nine out of ten polling agencies in the United States do not use empirical data or the empirical data system. The few that do consistently have Trump a few points ahead.

Jo

You made that up.

Nope....
Among the many types of math that I have spent time with academically statistics is one of them. If you're too lazy to research empirical data just admit it.... Don't run around claiming things you that have no idea about.

Don't get used to this you lazy prick but in this one instance it's useful to me to quote you directly from a college text on sampling size and statistical data:

A good maximum sample size is usually 10% as long as it does not exceed 1000. A good maximum sample size is usually around 10% of the population, as long as this does not exceed 1000. For example, in a population of 5000, 10% would be 500. In a population of 200,000, 10% would be 20,000.

By this standard the poll you're referring to is a complete joke taken only to serve one politically-motivated purpose, certainly not to collect accurate information.

Jo